Ken Holland on 97.1FM right now

[AD1066]

See, I don't get comments like this. It's again "what have you done for me lately" mentality. Wings are looking promising with the youth they drafted. They are drafting and developing, but I guess not fast enough?

Wings have some good young pieces that has been exceeding all of our expectations. *if* they hit on a couple dmen, then I like this team going forward. When our club shows excitement about Cholowski and didn't seem interested in Chychrun, then I feel good. Especially with Tyler Wright at the helm instead of Jim Nill.

It might not look like it based on this year, but I do think DRWs are already starting the up and coming upswing.

We don't have a #1C or #1D and our top scorer is 36 years old; what about the current roster screams "up and coming upswing"?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

We don't have a #1C or #1D and our top scorer is 36 years old; what about the current roster screams "up and coming upswing"?

Again... AA, Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, XO, etc.

The younger players are playing better as they get more playing time.

Cholowski, Hronek, Svech all look good.

 

[Frk It]

Again... AA, Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, XO, etc.

The younger players are playing better as they get more playing time.

Cholowski, Hronek, Svech all look good.

XO? Really? That's who we are touting? Jeez.

You're talking about Larkin, wingers, a streaky goalie, and a whole bunch of maybes. Cholowski and Hronek are 19 years old and complete question marks.

 

[AD1066]

Again... AA, Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, XO, etc.

The younger players are playing better as they get more playing time.

Cholowski, Hronek, Svech all look good.

In a vacuum that's fine, but the majority of teams have equivalent or better players in their respective systems.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Again... AA, Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, XO, etc.

The younger players are playing better as they get more playing time

I'm not sure if this is true of Larkin and Mrazek.

 

[jkutswings]

Again... AA, Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, XO, etc.

The younger players are playing better as they get more playing time.

Cholowski, Hronek, Svech all look good.

AA looks like an interesting 2nd line winger.

Mantha has the tools of a 1st line winger, but has a lot of adjusting to the NHL to do. A maybe.

Larkin looked awesome...last year. Now he looks very average. Another maybe.

Mrazek has totally fallen apart. Maybe he plays a lot better next year, but he's never strung an entire season together.

XO has career #4 ceiling written all over him.

And none of the recent prospects have done anything to say they'll excel at the highest level. OHL and college competition get eaten for lunch by the AHL, let alone NHL. I'm glad that Hronek in particular is off to a great start, but Kindl had a couple of years worth of identical production in the OHL. It just doesn't matter until they show it in a better league.



Do I like all the players you listed? Yes.
Do I think that even one of them is a lock to one day be a cornerstone? No.

At this point, there's no reason to expect any of them to pan out better then a Nyquist or Tatar...and we see where the franchise traveled while expecting those two to become cornerstones.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

AA looks like an interesting 2nd line winger.

Mantha has the tools of a 1st line winger, but has a lot of adjusting to the NHL to do. A maybe.

Larkin looked awesome...last year. Now he looks very average. Another maybe.

Mrazek has totally fallen apart. Maybe he plays a lot better next year, but he's never strung an entire season together.

XO has career #4 ceiling written all over him.

And none of the recent prospects have done anything to say they'll excel at the highest level. OHL and college competition get eaten for lunch by the AHL, let alone NHL. I'm glad that Hronek in particular is off to a great start, but Kindl had a couple of years worth of identical production in the OHL. It just doesn't matter until they show it in a better league.



Do I like all the players you listed? Yes.
Do I think that even one of them is a lock to one day be a cornerstone? No.

I'm just not trying to slit my wrists and think the team is doomed to mediocrity forever. I'm not going to **** on the guys we have because they're not top line centers, wingers, or Ds yet. Pavel Datsyuk wasn't a true stud until like 2005. Hell, we almost traded him for Scott Gomez because we were scared that he was all regular season, no playoffs.

I'm just saying that there is a lot to like about the Wings and their young players as opposed to say 2013 when literally all we had were Nyquist and Tatar with guys like Mrazek several years away and were spending to the cap with Mikael Samuelsson and Carlo Colaiacovo and blah blah blah.

I've seen enough from the young players to still be excited about their futures. They seem to be getting better at landing talent than they've been (Mantha and Larkin have been good), so I'm more encouraged about Svech and Cholo and whoever else.

I'm not saying they'll be cornerstone guys that you'll win five Cups with... but I like the way they play the game of hockey.

 

[jkutswings]

That's cool. I'm just saying that, while it's fine to like those guys, and be excited about how they might pan out, the roster still very much needs an influx of top talent.

After reading your response, you seem to have a decent perspective on things. My concern is that the front office is far less realistic, and would rather keep leaning on average vets, rather than giving the youth the priority it needs.

 

[Frk It]

I'm just saying that there is a lot to like about the Wings and their young players as opposed to say 2013 when literally all we had were Nyquist and Tatar with guys like Mrazek several years away and were spending to the cap with Mikael Samuelsson and Carlo Colaiacovo and blah blah blah.

Things looked pretty bright in 2013- we had a pipeline full of Nyquist, Tatar, Mrazek, Mantha, Sproul, Ouellet, Jurco, Sheahan, Jarnkrok, Pulkkinen, etc. Most of those guys accomplished a lot in their respective leagues before hitting the NHL. Kind of like the guys we are trying to pump up now.

We're still sitting here with no top 10 picks hoping a bunch of kids can outperform what usually happens at their draft position. It's not really much different. Main difference is we might finally get a high pick which is probably the best thing for us as far as turning our fortune.

 

[Heaton]

Things looked pretty bright in 2013- we had a pipeline full of Nyquist, Tatar, Mrazek, Mantha, Sproul, Ouellet, Jurco, Sheahan, Jarnkrok, Pulkkinen, etc. Most of those guys accomplished a lot in their respective leagues before hitting the NHL. Kind of like the guys we are trying to pump up now.

We're still sitting here with no top 10 picks hoping a bunch of kids can outperform what usually happens at their draft position. It's not really much different.

I also wouldn't call any of our prospects blue chip guys, I mean, Toronto went into this year drafting AM at #1, Marner was #4, Nylander was #8, they had JVR who was a former #2 overall pick.

Expecting to get elite talent by drafting 18th or later is expecting a lot. I would be surprised if any of our young defensemen end up being better than #3's.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Things looked pretty bright in 2013- we had a pipeline full of Nyquist, Tatar, Mrazek, Mantha, Sproul, Ouellet, Jurco, Sheahan, Jarnkrok, Pulkkinen, etc. Most of those guys accomplished a lot in their respective leagues before hitting the NHL. Kind of like the guys we are trying to pump up now.

We're still sitting here with no top 10 picks hoping a bunch of kids can outperform what usually happens at their draft position. It's not really much different. Main difference is we might finally get a high pick which is probably the best thing for us as far as turning our fortune.

In 2013... we had those guys in the AHL, OHL, WHL, whereever, putting up those numbers... while we had an NHL roster that prominently featured the corpses of Todd Bertuzzi, Dan Cleary, Jordin Tootoo, Carlo Colaiacovo, and would have run out Mikael Samuelsson if he didn't break.

Now, we have Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, etc... having success IN DETROIT, while we have the young prospects on the periphery that are in the same mold as those guys were in 2013.

Basically, we actually have young players playing in the big leagues now as opposed to then when we had Nyquist after midseason.

I mean, at least now we have guys like Larkin and Mantha who have shown elite level play at the big leagues, not just in the Q or college.

 

[AD1066]

In 2013... we had those guys in the AHL, OHL, WHL, whereever, putting up those numbers... while we had an NHL roster that prominently featured the corpses of Todd Bertuzzi, Dan Cleary, Jordin Tootoo, Carlo Colaiacovo, and would have run out Mikael Samuelsson if he didn't break.

Now, we have Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, etc... having success IN DETROIT, while we have the young prospects on the periphery that are in the same mold as those guys were in 2013.

Basically, we actually have young players playing in the big leagues now as opposed to then when we had Nyquist after midseason.

I mean, at least now we have guys like Larkin and Mantha who have shown elite level play at the big leagues, not just in the Q or college.

But it's not Bertuzzi, Cleary, Tootoo, etc. that these guys are being measured against. It's about filling the void left by Datsyuk, and soon, Zetterberg. It's not 2013 we're trying to surpass. We were a middling team then and something even worse now.

Larkin has 18 points in 48 games (30 per 82) and is a -14.
Mrazek is currently sub .900.
Mantha is our most impressive young player and is playing at a 54-point pace.
Athanasiou on a 37 point pace.

Meanwhile, teams around the league and particularly division rivals have added young players of their own. Matthews, Eichel, Marner, Ekblad, Barkov, Nylander, Reinhart.

Now factor in the contract situation Holland has created and I just don't see it. There is no one and nothing on our roster that other teams do not have and then some.

I'm not trying to be combative or rude but I keep seeings posts about how we're "on the upswing" or, even recently, X amount of points out of a playoff spot, and I can't tell if there's something I'm genuinely not seeing that some of you are, or if it's misguided optimism, or in a few cases even something fundamentally dishonest (not you).

 

[Frk It]

In 2013... we had those guys in the AHL, OHL, WHL, whereever, putting up those numbers... while we had an NHL roster that prominently featured the corpses of Todd Bertuzzi, Dan Cleary, Jordin Tootoo, Carlo Colaiacovo, and would have run out Mikael Samuelsson if he didn't break.

Now, we have Mantha, Larkin, Mrazek, etc... having success IN DETROIT, while we have the young prospects on the periphery that are in the same mold as those guys were in 2013.

Basically, we actually have young players playing in the big leagues now as opposed to then when we had Nyquist after midseason.

I mean, at least now we have guys like Larkin and Mantha who have shown elite level play at the big leagues, not just in the Q or college.

Mantha and Larkin are definitely something I am encouraged about. Everything else, I'm sorry, I just feel like we've been here before. Sorry if I'm pessimistic, I just don't want to rely on those late first rounders and 2nd rounders anymore. I think we need blue chip prospects.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

But it's not Bertuzzi, Cleary, Tootoo, etc. that these guys are being measured against. It's about filling the void left by Datsyuk, and soon, Zetterberg. It's not 2013 we're trying to surpass. We were a middling team then and something even worse now.

Larkin has 18 points in 48 games (30 per 82) and is a -14.
Mrazek is currently sub .900.
Mantha is our most impressive young player and is playing at a 54-point pace.
Athanasiou on a 37 point pace.

Meanwhile, teams around the league and particularly division rivals have added young players of their own. Matthews, Eichel, Marner, Ekblad, Barkov, Nylander, Reinhart.

Now factor in the contract situation Holland has created and I just don't see it. There is no one and nothing on our roster that other teams do not have and then some.

I'm not trying to be combative or rude but I keep seeings posts about how we're "on the upswing" or, even recently, X amount of points out of a playoff spot, and I can't tell if there's something I'm genuinely not seeing that some of you are, or if it's misguided optimism, or in a few cases even something fundamentally dishonest (not you).

The NHL is an arms race, and while the Wings have some above average forwards, the rest of the league is drafting elite super star talent at forward and drafting similarly talented players that Detroit is getting as well. The Wings will never dig themselves out of this giant hole they are in by drafting 40-50 point forwards.

Drafting 40-50 point forwards is the bare minimum requirement for being an NHL GM.

What Kenny is trying to do isn't noble, smart or honorable. It's the definition of insanity.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Mantha and Larkin are definitely something I am encouraged about. Everything else, I'm sorry, I just feel like we've been here before. Sorry if I'm pessimistic, I just don't want to rely on those late first rounders and 2nd rounders anymore. I think we need blue chip prospects.

As do I.

I agree with you more than you're realizing. Maybe I've just been harder on the optimism side than you are.

It's probably misguided... but I've spent decades honing my misguided optimism skills as a Lions fan. And I really do like AA a hell of a lot more than an Emmerton or Ferraro or whoever at the time then.

And whenever I say "upswing", I mean it in that we have players in the NHL right now playing roles that I'm pretty damn encouraged about. Instead of being a lottery team forever after Datsyuk and Z were gone like was predicted in 2011-13 (because we had jack crap in the minors and/or what we did have was years upon years away and/or predicted far rosier than was sane), it does seem like if we suck for a year or two and land a Hischier and Dahlin, along with continued growth that we could be building a contender. That what we really are missing is the top C and D. Put those pieces in place and all of a sudden your overmatched group of middling players become a workable middle/bottom six and middle/bottom pairing.

 

[Dotter]

I'm talking about who's on the team, not who's in the pipeline. We are in the position we are in because of the reason I stated.

The guys you are referencing are probably at least 3 years away. For someone who wants to win now, like you do, I hope you don't mind waiting the 3 or 4 years for these prospects to maybe hit.

I don't expect to win now. I want the playoff streak to continue and build on the fly. I want to be better than other teams who had to tank. I want to win the cup in the next 10 to 12 years and it not feel hollow. I want it to be by doing it differently than everyone else. I want Ken Holland to continue setting the standards in the NHL. Shanaplan seems like a cop out; the .99 cent microwave dinner type instant gratification. I want DRWs to be the 30 day aged $50 t-bone cooked to perfection.

I'm going to nitpick this. Mantha hasn't done anything and management is already sour on his work ethic. Larkin regressed this year and may not even hit 30 points. AA also looks great but management doesn't seem super enthusiastic about him.

Not convinced XO will be anything special and Mrazek needs a huge bounce back year to get any more confidence from the fanbase.

As for the prospects you mentioned, we've seen plenty of guys in the minors who haven't done anything and this organization has a terrible history in drafting and developing defensemen.

All young players. It's okay to judge them based on this season, but 20-22 year olds should not be expected to be in their prime. I'm not convinced Larkin is a 40 point subpar 2 way winger. I think he's much more than that.

We don't have a #1C or #1D and our top scorer is 36 years old; what about the current roster screams "up and coming upswing"?

TMLs don't have a #1 center or 1D either. And they are supposedly this great up and coming team.
That said, there's a rumor going around that Austin Matthews might someday become a serviceable top center someday. But too early to know for sure. Kinda like Larkin...

 

[Heaton]

All young players. It's okay to judge them based on this season, but 20-22 year olds should not be expected to be in their prime. I'm not convinced Larkin is a 40 point subpar 2 way winger. I think he's much more than that.

Historically, a players statistical peak is 24. Things can change, but we're not seeing that much yet.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

But it's not Bertuzzi, Cleary, Tootoo, etc. that these guys are being measured against. It's about filling the void left by Datsyuk, and soon, Zetterberg. It's not 2013 we're trying to surpass. We were a middling team then and something even worse now.

Larkin has 18 points in 48 games (30 per 82) and is a -14.
Mrazek is currently sub .900.
Mantha is our most impressive young player and is playing at a 54-point pace.
Athanasiou on a 37 point pace.

Meanwhile, teams around the league and particularly division rivals have added young players of their own. Matthews, Eichel, Marner, Ekblad, Barkov, Nylander, Reinhart.

Now factor in the contract situation Holland has created and I just don't see it. There is no one and nothing on our roster that other teams do not have and then some.

I'm not trying to be combative or rude but I keep seeings posts about how we're "on the upswing" or, even recently, X amount of points out of a playoff spot, and I can't tell if there's something I'm genuinely not seeing that some of you are, or if it's misguided optimism, or in a few cases even something fundamentally dishonest (not you).

The X points out of the playoff spot people are the same who think the Lions have a shot at the Super Bowl when they start 4-1. That the Tigers are destined for a WS if they have a two game lead in the division in June.

I think the optimism (misguided or not) comes from seeing that the young guys are some of our better players and that many of our vets have cratered into nigh replacement level players overnight... and as soon as they are bought out, LTIRed, retire, etc. we will have a jump. And since that won't be right away, they'll drag us down enough to put us in the running for Liljegren or Dahlin or Patrick or Hischer or whoever.

 

[Dotter]

Historically, a players statistical peak is 24. Things can change, but we're not seeing that much yet.

I don't think the team as a whole should be judged based on this season. It's been a terrible year. Sometimes the stars align and good things happen, this year the stars aligned and only bad things is happening.

Same thing is happening in Tampa. I think they are a better team than their record indicates. It's just a weird season. I'm not ready to make a determination that all the players on the team are busts just yet. Perhaps it's growing pains...

 

[jkutswings]

I don't expect to win now. I want the playoff streak to continue and build on the fly. I want to be better than other teams who had to tank. I want to win the cup in the next 10 to 12 years and it not feel hollow. I want it to be by doing it differently than everyone else. I want Ken Holland to continue setting the standards in the NHL. Shanaplan seems like a cop out; the .99 cent microwave dinner type instant gratification. I want DRWs to be the 30 day aged $50 t-bone cooked to perfection.

Toronto was awful for several years prior to Shanahan. And they're nowhere near a finished product. If that's instant gratification, then your aged t-bone will take 30 years.

All young players. It's okay to judge them based on this season, but 20-22 year olds should not be expected to be in their prime. I'm not convinced Larkin is a 40 point subpar 2 way winger. I think he's much more than that.

No disagreement there.

TMLs don't have a #1 center or 1D either. And they are supposedly this great up and coming team.
That said, there's a rumor going around that Austin Matthews might someday become a serviceable top center someday. But too early to know for sure. Kinda like Larkin...

While both are young, the two players have very little in common otherwise, whether in style of play or overall talent ceiling. Larkin was hailed as a great rookie, having 45 points in 80 games AS A WINGER, and has since had a sophomore slump. Matthews has 39 points in 49 games AS A CENTER, and at the same age Larkin was last year.

Larkin will likely find a middle ground between years 1 and 2, and will be a good pick for being 15OA. Matthews is already a good pick for being 1OA.

 

[abbbaron]

Was he really?

So he didn't take over the reigns of a dynasty? How many GMs get to inherit one of the best defensemen, one of the best players to ever play the game and enjoy his services for 15yrs? To say nothing of all the other HOFers that were on that roster.

The Wings had the bank activity of a millionaire and were all of a sudden told that they would be living off of 500k. They had to make deal after deal to simply keep together their Cup standard team from 2004-2009.

I must've missed that flurry of deal-making activity. The 2005 salary cap only exposed how wasteful Holland's pre-cap spending was (and considering that the team reportedly lost more than $16mil in 03-04, something had to give). He didn't make a single damn trade going into the 05-06 season; evidently no one wanted any of those bloated contracts that would become amnesty buy outs (do you count those as "deals"?). Some players in their 40s took hometown discounts and he filled out the rest of his roster with role-players, as GMs do. Subsequent years didn't see any extraordinary deal-making jujitsu-- just a steady churn of FAs and some largely negligible trades.

They had no free money/flexibility when they were pushing for a Cup every year. Then, as soon as they had money, so did everyone else.

He didn't have much flexibility thanks in part to some of the pre-cap contracts he was dishing out, but no matter because he did still have a generational talent on the back-end. No Lidstrom, certainly no cap-era cup. Up front he had a couple of young stars which he can claim some degree of credit for, though how much credit he can take for Datsyuk's decision to not bolt back to Russia is debatable (no Pav, probably no cap-era cup). The most important thing he did in the wake of the cap coming into effect was something that the cap didn't directly effect: netting Babcock. Babcock was able to get the cast of role-players to buy in to his system and drive possession (no Babcock, probably no cap-era cup).

The last lockout did little to hamstring Holland specifically; if anything it just gave him another much needed amnesty buyout. Practically all of the difficulties you cite were just as well faced by all GMs; the big difference is that Holland started off with most favorable conditions for success relative to his peers.

Ask Sather how much easier it is to win with a big budget. Poile has done a phenomenal job in Nashville, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that he would be X times better if he was in a position to blow another twenty million every year.

I never claimed that what Poile has/had managed to do on the thrift is scalable monotonically (though one can only speculate if he had had more financial support, would he have been able to incent Radulov to stay, along with some of the other talent that left over the years), my point was to give an example of management that knows how to play its cards-- they do something really well and trade their surplus to address their needs.
Much of the discussion on this thread centered around Holland's statement of how it takes 5yrs to turn out a blueliner, if they turn out at all (sounds like his forecast for a 10yr rebuild). Some say that's Holland just speaking conservatively-- I agree, but I also read it as Holland admitting that drafting/developing blueliners (and likewise rebuilding) isn't his competency. It makes me wonder what in the way of competencies Holland's management possesses these days.

 

[last_sd]

I also wouldn't call any of our prospects blue chip guys, I mean, Toronto went into this year drafting AM at #1, Marner was #4, Nylander was #8, they had JVR who was a former #2 overall pick.

Expecting to get elite talent by drafting 18th or later is expecting a lot. I would be surprised if any of our young defensemen end up being better than #3's.

Adding to that list, just the 1st rounders.
Mattews - #1
JVR - #2 (PHI)
Marner - #4
Rielly - #5
Kadri - #7
Nylander - #8
Gardiner - #17 (ANA)
Gauthier - #21

Also decent "free" pick ups
Tyler Bozak
Nikita Soshnikov
Nikita Zaitsev

Yes the trio rookies are playing well, but you can't forget the other former blue chippers ->
Reilly #1 D, Gardiner #3 D, Kadri #2/3C, JVR top 6 W. (positions are based on how they are being used right now, not saying what they should be playing on a contender)
and free pick ups
Bozak -> #2/3C, Zaitsez top 4 D.

Take those players out they would be like old Oilers.

It's takes a while to build a good talent pool. It's not like Shanny just changed everything in a year in TOR. It took them 5~6 years of high picks and roster management.

 

[Heaton]

I don't think the team as a whole should be judged based on this season. It's been a terrible year. Sometimes the stars align and good things happen, this year the stars aligned and only bad things is happening.

Same thing is happening in Tampa. I think they are a better team than their record indicates. It's just a weird season. I'm not ready to make a determination that all the players on the team are busts just yet. Perhaps it's growing pains...

No, but I would like to see some difference makers emerge. I want to see some elite players emerge. AA and Larkin look to be more passengers than difference makers. They'll contribute, but they won't take us to another level.

 

[last_sd]

No, but I would like to see some difference makers emerge. I want to see some elite players emerge. AA and Larkin look to be more passengers than difference makers. They'll contribute, but they won't take us to another level.

As you mentioned. The best chance of getting those players are through drafting high (top 10 picks). You can find some in other places but not as easy.

 

[AD1066]

The X points out of the playoff spot people are the same who think the Lions have a shot at the Super Bowl when they start 4-1. That the Tigers are destined for a WS if they have a two game lead in the division in June.

I think the optimism (misguided or not) comes from seeing that the young guys are some of our better players and that many of our vets have cratered into nigh replacement level players overnight... and as soon as they are bought out, LTIRed, retire, etc. we will have a jump. And since that won't be right away, they'll drag us down enough to put us in the running for Liljegren or Dahlin or Patrick or Hischer or whoever.

Thanks, with your other post above I do see where you are coming from.

I think we're in agreement that our young talent is encouraging if we regard them as complimentary pieces to an eventual contender. But they alone won't be capable of going toe-to-toe with cores featuring players of McDavid's and Matthews' caliber.

And no amount of hitting on late first and late round possibly-undersized 40/50-point wingers is going to push us over the top.