Keep Tanev or Toffoli?

[Peter10]

Its not flawed. Its more than likely their best case scenario.

The other 2 scenarios are, 1. drop in cap (say 5mil) and a cbo. That would still leave them 26.5mil to 29.5mil free cap. Or 2. A flat cap with no cbo. Here they have to hang onto Eriksson, leaving them 25.5mil to 28.5mil cap if they make the same moves.

Why are these moves doable? Because the Canucks are at a point where they have too many players/prospects competing for a small number of spots. Look at the #6 and #7 D spots. You realistically have Benn, Stecher, Tryamkin, Rafferty, and say 1 more prospect (Rathbone) competing. Benn is tradeable with a 5th or 6th attached to him. 1 of Stecher/Tryamkin can be included with someone like Baertchi or Sutter to create a better return/ reduce loss of prospects/picks in the deal.

No, it is flawed. If the cap stays flat and there are no CBOs, they keep their current 18m cap room. In your scenario you buyout Eriksson to help "create" another 13.5m in cap space which is pointless. If there was a CBO the cap would drop, maybe by 4-5m or whatever, hence instead of the additional 13.5m it would be rather 8.5-9.5m cap room.

Now for your whole spin of having 25+m cap space, you probably should also take into account that with that, the team is lacking almost half a roster. So lets say they can trade Sutter ($1m retained) and Benn and Baertschi (all three of them will cost assets to get rid of). That gives you $25.67 space and you need to sign at least 3 F, 3 D and 1 G just to have the minimum 20 player roster. Who is going to be #4 and #5 D for you? Right now you only got Myers, Edler and Hughes while 5 players competing for 6/7, so you need to sign Tanev (or comparable) which costs 5.5+m. You also need to sign Markstrom (another 5.5m deal at least) and Virtanen.

Just to make it visible, below a quick armchair GM team from capfriendly

CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Brock Boeser ($5,875,000) - Tyler Toffoli ($5,500,000) - Jake Virtanen ($3,000,000) - Tyler Motte ($1,000,000) - Loui Eriksson ($6,000,000)
Centre: Elias Pettersson ($925,000) - Bo Horvat ($5,500,000) - Jay Beagle ($3,000,000) - Adam Gaudette ($1,200,000)
Left wing: J.T. Miller ($5,250,000) - Tanner Pearson ($3,750,000) - Micheal Ferland ($3,500,000) - Antoine Roussel ($3,000,000)
DEFENSE (7)
Right: Christopher Tanev ($5,500,000) - Tyler Myers ($6,000,000) - Troy Stecher ($2,325,000) - Brogan Rafferty ($700,000)
Left: Quinn Hughes ($916,667) - Alexander Edler ($6,000,000) - Jack Rathbone ($925,000)
GOALTENDER (2)
Jacob Markström ($5,500,000) - Thatcher Demko ($1,050,000)
BUYOUTS (1)
Ryan Spooner ($1,033,333)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Sven Baertschi ($1,000,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $81,500,000
Cap Hit: $81,483,206
Cap Space: $16,794

Now this does not include the 1.7m bonus carry over for Hughes and Pettersson, the the team above is already above the cap and only workable with LTIR of Ferland (who btw is currently expected to play in fall. To pretend they have loads of cap space is pretty laughable considering they can barely keep the team together and stay under the cap, all that while trading away more futures just to get rid of Sutter, Benn and Baertschi.

 

[604]

For me pretty easily Toffoli. For one I think it’s pretty easy to assume he’ll stay a top 6 forward longer than Tanev will a top 4 D, he’ll decline fast with his style of play.

Furthermore, you can’t trust Tanev with his injury history which could get worse as he ages. Plus Vancouver can’t trade a good prospect like Madden and a fairly high pick for a rental, that’s awful managemnt and Benning knows it

That last point is terrible decision making. Madden is a sunk cost and really shouldn't affect the decision of Toffoli vs. Tanev.

Of course, to me, it's more of a Toffoli vs. Tanev vs. Eriksson (likely compliance buyout option)

 

[Fatass]

That last point is terrible decision making. Madden is a sunk cost and really shouldn't affect the decision of Toffoli vs. Tanev.

Of course, to me, it's more of a Toffoli vs. Tanev vs. Eriksson (likely compliance buyout option)

I’m hopeful we can keep Tanev, Tofoli, and Marky. Of those three though, which one is the hardest to replace?

 

[604]

I’m hopeful we can keep Tanev, Tofoli, and Marky. Of those three though, which one is the hardest to replace?

In my mind hardest to replace in order:

- Markstrom
- Tanev
- Toffoli

Franchise goalie > Top 4 mobile defensive defenseman > Top 6, 40-50 point winger.

An arguement could be made that Toffoli is already replaced by Boeser coming back.

That being said, keeping Boeser or Toffoli on the 3rd line is good, just not at the expense of losing a good top 4 dman.

Markstrom is an obvious must-keep.

 

[Fatass]

In my mind hardest to replace in order:

- Markstrom
- Tanev
- Toffoli

Franchise goalie > Top 4 mobile defensive defenseman > Top 6, 40-50 point winger.

An arguement could be made that Toffoli is already replaced by Boeser coming back.

That being said, keeping Boeser or Toffoli on the 3rd line is good, just not at the expense of losing a good top 4 dman.

Markstrom is an obvious must-keep.

I think the cap will stay where it is, and escrow will just go up. That’s how the system is supposed to work. If we are blessed with a compliance buyout (Loui) then could we afford all three of Marky, Tanev, and Tofoli?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

assuming cbo both can be kept as neither will likely see large pay raises due to cap not going up.
-6mil eriksson (cbo)
-2mil benn
-3.5mil ferland ((ltir)ability to go over)
-2mil baertschi(assuming for example we take a player back like connor carrik in the deal)

thats 13.5mil in addition to the 18mil we currently are projected to have
you could then retain a mil on sutter and flip creating 16.5mil
tons of room to play wtih

Seems like wishful thinking.

@Peter10 already addressed the issue with a CBO for Eriksson.

I don't think getting rid of Benn would be as easy as just trading him with nothing else. Why would another team prefer Benn, who played as a #7 on our team and carries a $2 million cap hit, over a $900k free agent option (#7 dmen are a dime a dozen).

Ferland can go on LTIR, but his cap will still count until next season begins. So they will still need to find a way to get under the cap until the season starts with his $3.5 million cap hit on the books.

Baertschi we will need to give up a decent asset to offload (likely a 2nd or 3rd round pick).

Even if we do some of these things, I still doubt we can afford to re-sign Tanev.

 

[Diversification]

We’re still interested in competing for a playoff spot next season, right? If so, it’s easily Tanev.

The only scenario I can see to keep Toffoli is if we trade Boeser for someone like Brodin who is a younger viable Tanev replacement.

 

[Nabrules]

Are people forgetting Tanev's injury history? Jesus. This past year was going to be his most game played in many years and he was still going to miss around 12 games. You just can't count on him.

 

[604]

Are people forgetting Tanev's injury history? Jesus. This past year was going to be his most game played in many years and he was still going to miss around 12 games. You just can't count on him.

Nobody is forgetting his injury history. The fact is, players like him are hard to replace.

Toronto has been looking for a Chris Tanev type for over 3 years without success.

35-50 point scoring wingers who make over $4M are actually not that desirable. I'll admit that Toffoli has played well this year but let's not forget that he's 27 and only broken 50 points once in his career. In fact, both Virtanen and Gaudette scored at a similar pace to Toffoli's career average this year and you would be shot for suggesting signing them for anywhere near what Toffoli's asking price probably would be.

After doing some research, I'm going to re-assess my prior position and say that I would only re-sign Toffoli if he was willing to comeback at a discount to his current contract. 10 points in his last 10 games with us is nice but is certainly not on trend for him. If he was an RFA, I would not qualify him.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Signing Toffoli would be a mistake if there is no money left to replace Tanev. I thought our blue line needed improvement with Tanev. Rebuilds usually fail because of bad blue lines. Edmonton, Buffalo, Colorado all failed because there defences were continually putrid.

 

[canuckking1]

Tanev

Virtanen and Leivo can fill in as a placeholder until next season where Podkolzin steps in,

 

[F A N]

Maybe the plan is to sign Tyson Barrie.

 

[Peter10]

Maybe the plan is to sign Tyson Barrie.

That would be a stupid plan.

 

[F A N]

That would be a stupid plan.

Got to keep adding Dmen who aren't top pairing guys who s much better with the puck than without. No need to be good at shot suppression. Run and gun!

 

[Peter10]

Got to keep adding Dmen who aren't top pairing guys who s much better with the puck than without. No need to be good at shot suppression. Run and gun!

Contracts aside I think he could help the Canucks but taking money/term into account I doubt think he could justify that contract while playing behind Hughes (on the PP).

 

[F A N]

Contracts aside I think he could help the Canucks but taking money/term into account I doubt think he could justify that contract while playing behind Hughes (on the PP).

Why not both? Barrie has that one timer from the left circle which Hughes can set up.

 

[iceburg]

Love Tanev and, if they lose him, they will seriously need to rebuild their defense for next year (unless, as I suggested in another thread, they tank). Tanev is a step slower, on the down slope of an injury riddle career, and his future impact relative to Toffoli will be a lot lower.

 

[Fatass]

Why not both? Barrie has that one timer from the left circle which Hughes can set up.

You think Barrie (maybe all this summer’s UFAs) might sign a lower dollar one year deal in hopes next summer will bring better contracts?

 

[Peter10]

Why not both? Barrie has that one timer from the left circle which Hughes can set up.

At what price? This defense is going to be a mess defensively without Tanev or a replacement. If you get Barrie, you won't have any money left.

 

[flying v 604]

Markstrom looks like he will be re-signed. Depending on how the cap changes for next season, it's likely we will only be able to keep one of Toffoli or Tanev (there's a chance we let both walk, or keep both, depending on the cap and moves Benning makes, but I think only keeping one of them is the most realistic scenario). Who do you think is the better option at retaining?

I think if we get playoffs the cap will stay flat but team's will get a compliance buyout to compensate the fact that cap had a chance to go up to 88 mill.
If that does happen, I would let Stech and Fanta walk, buyout LE and hopefully move Benn. A bonus would be to move or hope Baer splits to Europe but even with him they would have an extra 13 mill to sign everyone.

If the worst happens, I sign TT if there was no way to sign both and hope that Tram signs with the Stech money. Hopefully one of Rathbone, Joulevi or Breeze shows well at camp.

 

[flying v 604]

Yep. One of these days, ol Jimbo is gonna learn how to properly evaluate defensemen.

I believe that.

Well Hughes, Rathbone, Woo, Breeze, and Joulevi based on models done, say that Hughes and Rathbone as top pairing, Woo and Joulevi top 4 while Breeze a bottom pairing. Sure it may not pan out but to say he's bad at judging D I'm guessing based on the Guddy trade? Cus his prospects seem fine and IMO Myers was a big upgrade to our core. He gets a lot of hate from the tankers and anti-Benning people but from seeing him live all season he did way more good then bad.

 

[flying v 604]

It would be wise to get a real competent GM that can properly evaluate our roster and has complete and 100% autonomy to do whatever he wants to do to try to fix this clusterf***.

There's no easy solution when you got so much salary cap tied up in trash players.

The cap was expected to go up by as much as 7 mill, that right there plus Stech is enough to sign the big 3. Hell for all we know Benning and LE had a handshake deal to retire. With 1 year left on their contracts, Sutter and Baer are tradable especially with a little retention.

The doom and gloom you Anti Benning crowd spew are worse case scenarios with no actual inside knowledge.
When has the cap during Benning's term caused the team to lose or not be able to sign a UFA?

It baffles me that people can Bash Jim when we're finally seeing what this team is becoming under his guidance. All you can ask from a rookie GM is to learn and get better, looking at this core almost all drafted or acquired by him along with the prospect pool all while the placeholders contracts end in the next 2 seasons being replaced by homegrown talent is setting us fans up to once again be tops in the West, sooner then later.

If he is able to sign TT, Tanev and Marky, I hope haters quite griping since our entire core will be signed and when Petey and Quinn need new deals there will be a ton of cap off the books.

 

[Peter10]

Well Hughes, Rathbone, Woo, Breeze, and Joulevi based on models done, say that Hughes and Rathbone as top pairing, Woo and Joulevi top 4 while Breeze a bottom pairing. Sure it may not pan out but to say he's bad at judging D I'm guessing based on the Guddy trade? Cus his prospects seem fine and IMO Myers was a big upgrade to our core. He gets a lot of hate from the tankers and anti-Benning people but from seeing him live all season he did way more good then bad.

Are those the Fantasy Island models?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Signing Tanev would be more important than Toffoli imo. Our forward group is pretty decent and Podzolkin will bolster the group of young forwards even further. But even with Tanev our D is still mediocre and his signing just pushes the day of reckoning another year or two down the road. The team desperately needs to rebuild the D and have a couple of prospects significantly exceed expectations just to tread water. Rathbone is the most intriguing one for me but by no means a sure fire top 4 guy. The rest look like bottom pairing potential but hopefully one takes a huge step.
Hughes is a game changer but even with him the team still needs a lot more on the back end.

 

[Beefcake99]

Add Rafferty,Barrie and Tryamkin
Subtract Tanev, Stecher and Benn