Speculation: Karlsson the upcoming season

[Proust*]

He's so much more skilled than everyone on this ice that it is really up to him how good he wants to be. He's got a nice long-term contract now, so hopefully he has that inner hunger for Stanley Cups and Norris trophies. I really hope he's having a huge summer in terms of rehab. This team belongs to Spezza and Karlsson now.

My feeling is that he will put up 60-70 points, but his defensive play will be sketchy as he continues to recover from his injury. We don't need him to be PPG. He was under PPG this season, yet was playing the best hockey of his career. I would rather him be a 60-70 pt guy who plays tight defense every shift, because that right there is the most valuable player in the NHL.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Believe it or not, I would say Karlsson's offensive production will largely ride on the play of Methot.

If Methot can be as good this upcoming season as he was last year, I would say Karlsson is looking at 65+ points. If not, 75+.

If Methot regresses and doesn't perform to expectations, I would say Karlsson is looking at anything from 50 to 65.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I don't know who made this video, but for anyone who has so soon forgotten what Karlsson is like at 100%, feast your eyes...kid could have had like 6 points in this game. And he was dominant defensively.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Believe it or not, I would say Karlsson's offensive production will largely ride on the play of Methot.

If Methot can be as good this upcoming season as he was last year, I would say Karlsson is looking at 65+ points. If not, 75+.

If Methot regresses and doesn't perform to expectations, I would say Karlsson is looking at anything from 50 to 65.

You do realize that Erik Karlsson scored the 3rd highest point totals ever by a 21 year old and won the Norris trophy as youngest since orr with...

KUBA as his defender.. KUBA.

When Karlsson is on his game, not even his defensive partner can decrease his point totals.

Plus, Methot will be just fine.

 

[BankStreetParade]

You do realize that Erik Karlsson scored the 3rd highest point totals ever by a 21 year old and won the Norris trophy as youngest since orr with...

KUBA as his defender.. KUBA.

When Karlsson is on his game, not even his defensive partner can decrease his point totals.

Plus, Methot will be just fine.

Slow down there. Kuba had a very good season that year. Let's not re-write history to suit our arguments. He might not have been the greatest defender in the world, but I remember many a night when Kuba bailed out Karlsson. Way more so, in fact, than vice versa.

 

[SenzZen]

Slow down there. Kuba had a very good season that year. Let's not re-write history to suit our arguments. He might not have been the greatest defender in the world, but I remember many a night when Kuba bailed out Karlsson. Way more so, in fact, than vice versa.

Yikes.

 

[IceBjoern]

Lol, let's look at some analysis.

Karlsson comes back from Achilles tear in 2 months.

Records 4 points in 3 games.

Records 8 points in 10 playoff games.

P.S. He recorded 14 points in 17 games with 24th worst offense. Imagine what would it have been with a healthy Spezza and Ryan at the time.

Karlsson in his second year in the NHL records 45 points with the worst top pairing defender in the league(Kuba)

Now you're telling me that Karlsson will score 40 points? Lmaoooooooooooooo.

Heck his first year he was on pace to score more than 40. He is the best offensive defender bar none.

You have absolutely no way of justifying it. Even if Karlsson isn't 100% the major loss will come on the defensive end not the offensive. His offense would suffer but not crazily.

I'm expecting 80-90 points if he is back to normal.

60-65 points if he isn't 100%

If he gets 40 that means everyone on our top 6 got injured and Karlsson is suffering from schizophrenia.

He did that flanked by a peaked Backstrom, Ovechkin and Semin.

Has he ever been on a 40 point pace except in his rookie season?

Karlsson shoots the puck too much to only get 40.

You're right! Here, I've updated my projected stats.

Jason Spezza 1 GP 0G 0A -4 *
Milan Michalek 11GP 0G 1A -9 *
Cory Conacher 82GP 3G 13A -33
Erik Karlsson 4GP 2G 0A -11 *

Will update the rest later. * means career ending injury. NOW NO ONE CAN BE DISAPPOINTED BECAUSE WE EXPECT IT!

Is that even how expectations work?

Like do you have to subconsciously think Karlsson sucks to get a number of 40 points? I'm sorry, if Karlsson plays a full season and gets 40 points I will be pissed.

Seeing that stat line would be depressing. I need 70+ to be satisfied.

In my defense, I did say 40-60pts... 40 being the lowest realistically. I also said that 80-90 isn't "unreachable". Guess I stepped on the wrong toes. Avarage scoring puts him at 57pts over 82 games so 40-60 wasn't that inaccurate when guessing on his possible scoring output.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Realistically I see him struggling a bit (more defensively than anything) until Jan or so. Most experts suggest it takes close to a year to return to full health, so I am probably going to keep my expectations a little low.

But that said, the kid can still pass like crazy and pick up points. I still expect 60 points if he plays a full season.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

Slow down there. Kuba had a very good season that year. Let's not re-write history to suit our arguments. He might not have been the greatest defender in the world, but I remember many a night when Kuba bailed out Karlsson. Way more so, in fact, than vice versa.

Marty?

 

[HavlatMach9]

In my defense, I did say 40-60pts... 40 being the lowest realistically. I also said that 80-90 isn't "unreachable". Guess I stepped on the wrong toes. Avarage scoring puts him at 57pts over 82 games so 40-60 wasn't that inaccurate when guessing on his possible scoring output.

I guess it's his playstyle. He got 80 points in a season full of facepalm worthy convergence attempts by players like Greening and Foligno (no hate, players like Ryan should have been taking those passes). If you had put the range to 45-70, you'd have been ok.

I expect Karlsson to get Maciver record of 63 points again.

 

[Minister of Offence]

If he's taking 5 shots a game it's gonna be damn hard for bad luck to keep him below 70 points.

Basically, if he's at the playing level he was pre-injury last season, he'll probably be the easy front runner for the Norris.

 

[MiscBrah]

I'm expecting Ottawa to score over 275 goals next season.

Don't be surprised if Karlsson pots over 25 goals next season. I'd honestly be shocked if he puts up less than 75 points. This is if everyone is healthy of course.

28g + 63a = 91 points.

Not even kidding around. Ottawa will be a powerhouse next season. I'm expecting a division win and challenging for the conference if not the league lead.

Enough of the cardiac kids, it's going to be the return of the Pizza line. ~3.4 G/G.

We've shown we can play defensive hockey, the goaltending is solid for the first since Hasek and our offense is ready to explode.

 

[Samsquanch]

I don't know who made this video, but for anyone who has so soon forgotten what Karlsson is like at 100%, feast your eyes...kid could have had like 6 points in this game. And he was dominant defensively.

You really only have to watch about 2 minutes of that video before it becomes apparent how incredibly dominant Karlsson is when he's at 100%. It's simply sickening how much of a positive impact he can have on a game on any given night.

Quite simply put, he's the best, most exciting and most dominant d-man Ive ever seen (Lidstrom is easily #2, but much more subtle in how he went about controlling games imo). Also bare in mind I was not alive to witness Orr or Potvin, and was to young to appreciate a prime Coffey, Bourque, MacInnis, Housley ect ect (all those great Dmen of the 80's/early 90's).

 

[OD99]

I'm serious. How many glaring mistakes did Karlsson make? Not that many. He knew he was injured and played more conservatively. Subban on the other hand made many mistakes directly resulting in goals... Out of position, bad gap control, ...


Karlsson was totally fine in the playoffs. He was the Sens best D. He wasn't psycho good like we're used to seeing but he was fine.

I know we have come to expect great things but Karlsson was not totally fine by any measure. He was out of position, turned the puck over, gave away corners in our end far too often (embarrassing in some cases) and generally wasn't that good for long stretches.

I have loved his game since I watched him at the WJHC and knew he was going to be a star so this isn't someone just piling on - he wasn't very good but he will be much better again.

 

[YNWA14]

I know we have come to expect great things but Karlsson was not totally fine by any measure. He was out of position, turned the puck over, gave away corners in our end far too often (embarrassing in some cases) and generally wasn't that good for long stretches.

I have loved his game since I watched him at the WJHC and knew he was going to be a star so this isn't someone just piling on - he wasn't very good but he will be much better again.

Yep...Karlsson was very bad in the playoffs.

That said even if Karlsson isn't 100% he's going to put up a lot of points by virtue of being on the ice with Spezza and Ryan IMO. Even if you look at Karlsson's norris season it would amaze you how many of his points were accumulated by getting the puck to Spez' (not saying that Karlsson wasn't dynamic or pulling his own weight or anything). When you have two (maybe three now with Ryan) great offensive talents on a team they tend to find eachother a lot. Karlsson's production will be fine...it's his skating and defence that we have to worry about with this injury.

Here's hoping to a healthy King K.

 

[OD99]

Not really, as long as he's playing good defensively. He hasn't established a standard yet. His Norris year was great, but he hasn't done that more than once. All I'm saying is, keep expectations low and let him surprise you in a positive way instead.

Asking for 70pts is not realistic.

40-60 is.

As much as I think Karlsson is easily the best offensive Dman in the game this man has a point about points.

Karlsson has had one huge break-out season and while I don't doubt his skill will allow him to meet that total and even exceed it we really don't have a huge body of work to go off of here. Rookie season he was sent to the minors and came back to show he was going to be a force - the next season he progressed as we hoped.

In his break-out season he scored 33 more points that in his sophomore campaign and most Senators had career years points wise.

With some studs around him and his skill he can be a ppg Dman but it isn't set in stone he is going to produce at that pace. 60 points is extremely good for a defenceman.

 

[Minister of Offence]

With 8 months off from the injury I don't think we should expect to see much lag. The fact he was playing after 3 months was pretty comical, and at times it was pretty comical on the ice.

 

[Sensinitis]

You really only have to watch about 2 minutes of that video before it becomes apparent how incredibly dominant Karlsson is when he's at 100%. It's simply sickening how much of a positive impact he can have on a game on any given night.

Quite simply put, he's the best, most exciting and most dominant d-man Ive ever seen (Lidstrom is easily #2, but much more subtle in how he went about controlling games imo). Also bare in mind I was not alive to witness Orr or Potvin, and was to young to appreciate a prime Coffey, Bourque, MacInnis, Housley ect ect (all those great Dmen of the 80's/early 90's).

I'm expecting Ottawa to score over 275 goals next season.

Don't be surprised if Karlsson pots over 25 goals next season. I'd honestly be shocked if he puts up less than 75 points. This is if everyone is healthy of course.

28g + 63a = 91 points.

Not even kidding around. Ottawa will be a powerhouse next season. I'm expecting a division win and challenging for the conference if not the league lead.

Enough of the cardiac kids, it's going to be the return of the Pizza line. ~3.4 G/G.

We've shown we can play defensive hockey, the goaltending is solid for the first since Hasek and our offense is ready to explode.

I love the enthusiasm!! Hope you're right!!!!

 

[Minister of Offence]

As much as I think Karlsson is easily the best offensive Dman in the game this man has a point about points.

Karlsson has had one huge break-out season and while I don't doubt his skill will allow him to meet that total and even exceed it we really don't have a huge body of work to go off of here. Rookie season he was sent to the minors and came back to show he was going to be a force - the next season he progressed as we hoped.

In his break-out season he scored 33 more points that in his sophomore campaign and most Senators had career years points wise.

With some studs around him and his skill he can be a ppg Dman but it isn't set in stone he is going to produce at that pace. 60 points is extremely good for a defenceman.

There's a lot of Dmen that people come to expect 50-60 points from, or perhaps a little more, and the numbers Karlsson is expected to put up in terms of SOG, possession, scoring chances makes you think you can expect him to exceed those other star offensive defensemen by a margin.

I do expect him to be 10-20 points better than the rest of the pack because he's 10-20 points more talented, and puts the puck in places where points happen about 10-20 points worth more than other Dmen.

If there are other Dmen in the league that are gonna go top 5 in the league in SOG and spend as much time in the offensive zone as Karlsson does, I'll place them as good candidates to score 70+ in any given season.

If he only scores 55 next year, I expect bad luck will be a evident factor, or he somehow hasn't recovered to the playing level we saw him at in the Norris season, let alone what we saw to begin last season.

 

[Sun God Nika]

im more of a fan of letting Karlsson play with a two way defender then a defensive defender, but right now we can't do that since first Karlsson will need to develop his defensive game further, and our two ways (Wiercioch, Ceci) are gonna need some more time to be able to carry some defense for Karlssons minutes,

in three years from now i would be ecstatic to see

Karlsson - Ceci / Karlsson - Wiercioch

 

[MiscBrah]

He was playing on, literally, one leg. He couldn't turn left (i think?) at all! That's what led directly the White giveaway/goal as well as basically all his other mishaps. It was extremely easy for teams to just walk around him when he actually can't turn one direction.

It's not going to be like that this season. Even if he's not 100%, which I think he will be, he'll still be extremely close and I know he's going to be amazing.

Imagine what it would have been like to have EK while Spezz and Heater were lighting it up... That's what it's going to be like next season except that it's going to better.

Seriously, the Sens will be amazing and EK is going to wow the entire league.

 

[DylanSensFan]

Slow down there. Kuba had a very good season that year. Let's not re-write history to suit our arguments. He might not have been the greatest defender in the world, but I remember many a night when Kuba bailed out Karlsson. Way more so, in fact, than vice versa.

Karlsson made Kuba have a good year... PERIOD. Look at Kuba's decline the next season, that is all the evidence you need.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Slow down there. Kuba had a very good season that year. Let's not re-write history to suit our arguments. He might not have been the greatest defender in the world, but I remember many a night when Kuba bailed out Karlsson. Way more so, in fact, than vice versa.

Lol.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

65 points I think he'll score around 10-15 goals this year. Doubt he'll make 20 considering he'll be paired with Corvo and wier on the PP both of which are players that shoot more then Gonchar. Gonchar has been incredibly timid when it comes to shooting the puck on the pp. How many times can we say he faked a slapper then passed it off. I think more likely we see Wier and Corvo score similar to the amount of goals karl puts up but karl put up a ton of assists. I could see our pp being less shoot from the point oriented if we can get big bodies like Ryan, Spezza and MM in the line up to work the puck down low and into the slot. You can also add in his injury as a reason his production could drop.
Karlsson 65 points
Wier 42 points
Corvo 77 points break out offensive year wins Norris

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

65 points I think he'll score around 10-15 goals this year. Doubt he'll make 20 considering he'll be paired with Corvo and wier on the PP both of which are players that shoot more then Gonchar. Gonchar has been incredibly timid when it comes to shooting the puck on the pp. How many times can we say he faked a slapper then passed it off. I think more likely we see Wier and Corvo score similar to the amount of goals karl puts up but karl put up a ton of assists. I could see our pp being less shoot from the point oriented if we can get big bodies like Ryan, Spezza and MM in the line up to work the puck down low and into the slot. You can also add in his injury as a reason his production could drop.
Karlsson 65 points
Wier 42 points
Corvo 77 points break out offensive year wins Norris

Out of Karlsson's 19 goals last year only 3 on the PP. He doesn't need the PP to find the back of the net.

If healthy I expect him to score 25. Rather I could see 15-20 if not.

If anything the defense will respect Corvo and Wier's shots and give more space for Karlsson. Gonchar was so ****ing predictable it pained me to see him back there, argh.