Speculation: KARLSSON Megathread | Part II

[Benjamin]

Just wait one more year and buy him out.

 

[Spirit of 67]

I am pulling for Vegas here. They could put together a really good package, probably the best one, and take Bobby Ryan. All without really hurting their organization all that badly. They are also the most likeable of the three teams rumoured to be front runners. I could stomach following Karlsson on Vegas. Karlsson going within the division to Tampa would ruin it for me.

I think this is how it will play out.

Even when there were tweets saying that EK to TBay was all but a phone call to the league from being done, I still wasn't a believer.
I've thought all along it would be Vegas. I see one of 2 scenarios proving the winner.
1) As you say, they'll take on Bobby Ryan in order to keep down the cost/not have to include a deal breaker.
2) They don't include Ryan and Vegas simply agrees to include the deal breaker.

I don't see a scenario where this gets done anytime soon because I think the number of teams that can reasonably take him on is dwindling. Perhaps there is only 1 now.

A question I have is, does he report for camp if he's not traded?
FWIW, I say he does. Seems like too much class there to hold out.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Just wait one more year and buy him out.

Buying him out doesn't save the Senators any real money because Ryan has signing bonuses which are buyout proof, and at least for 60 games a season we have to pay a replacement.


Ryan is owed 22.5M, we only save 5.5M of that via buying him out. We also have to pay a replacement player at least 650k to take his spot on our 23 man roster. That means the net savings from buying out Ryan is only about 3.5M. That's not 3.5M a season, that's 3.5M over the lifetime of the contract, so just over 1M per season.

If we were a cap team, we might buy Ryan out because it makes the cap hit more manageable since it's 2/3rds spread out over twice the length, with the signing bonuses paid in their original years, but we're not a cap team. As a salary team, buying out Ryan is pretty much pointless.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

He is expensive for what he can n ow do; however he is not a scrub and proved it in the playoff run two seasons ago. Yes he is overpaid by about $3M.

Lots of scrubs can string together a decent 20 games. The good GMs won't get baited by it. Zack Smith turned a good run of 20-30 games into a 4 year contract. Hammond. There's loads of them prior.

Look out side those 20 games and look at literally hundreds of games for the Sens where he's failed to be a consistent top 6 producer while being useless everywhere else on the ice. I would take literally any player who can skate well over him. Smith, Burrows and Ryan were literally amongst the worst forwards in the entire NHL last season.

 

[Benjamin]

Buying him out doesn't save the Senators any real money because Ryan has signing bonuses which are buyout proof, and at least for 60 games a season we have to pay a replacement.


Ryan is owed 22.5M, we only save 5.5M of that via buying him out. We also have to pay a replacement player at least 650k to take his spot on our 23 man roster. That means the net savings from buying out Ryan is only about 3.5M. That's not 3.5M a season, that's 3.5M over the lifetime of the contract, so just over 1M per season.

If we were a cap team, we might buy Ryan out because it makes the cap hit more manageable since it's 2/3rds spread out over twice the length, with the signing bonuses paid in their original years, but we're not a cap team. As a salary team, buying out Ryan is pretty much pointless.

and I'd love to argue to Melnyk that this option is cheaper in the long run than attaching him to Karlsson and taking a lesser package.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think this is how it will play out.

Even when there were tweets saying that EK to TBay was all but a phone call to the league from being done, I still wasn't a believer.
I've thought all along it would be Vegas. I see one of 2 scenarios proving the winner.
1) As you say, they'll take on Bobby Ryan in order to keep down the cost/not have to include a deal breaker.
2) They don't include Ryan and Vegas simply agrees to include the deal breaker.

I don't see a scenario where this gets done anytime soon because I think the number of teams that can reasonably take him on is dwindling. Perhaps there is only 1 now.

A question I have is, does he report for camp if he's not traded?
FWIW, I say he does. Seems like too much class there to hold out.

Players do not hold out in today's NHL because if they do, the team can suspend them, and then they owe the team time on their contract. IE, Karlsson sits out the 18-19 season, Sens retain his rights for 19-20. It's pointless for Karlsson.

If there is truth to Karlsson only extending with DAL/VGK/TBL, and he doesn't want to stay in Ottawa, the resolution would be for Karlsson to name one or two more teams he might consider playing for in order to heat up the market. Otherwise, Ottawa's only leverage is keeping Karlsson throughout the season. At this point, I doubt that is ideal for anybody involved.

 

[topshelf15]

Ryan Iam sure wants out,but he needs to play his way to a trade that gets him his wish...We shouldnt be giving up anything of value to move him

 

[Boud]

Adding Ryan to Karlsson makes no sense at all if you look at it from other teams perspective.

The team that's acquiring Karlsson is making a strong effort to become competitive and at the same time tying up 11M+ of their cap AND taking Bobby Ryan. It's pretty damn tough to have 7M of your cap for a player that doesn't do much and that will also impact your ability to keep young players/re-signing key players on your team.

If I'm the other team I look at this and try to figure out how I'll be able to be competitive with nearly 20M tied to two players and one of them that does nothing.

The only way Ottawa can make this happen without taking too much of a hit is by retaining about 2M on Ryan.

 

[tony d]

Yeah, you separate Ryan from a Karlsson trade. Chances are you are lessening the trade and what you get back by including Ryan.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Ryan Iam sure wants out,but he needs to play his way to a trade that gets him his wish...We shouldnt be giving up anything of value to move him

If they know Karlsson, Stone and Duchene cant be signed, there's really no point in moving him. He helps us tank the next few years and will help get the team to the cap floor. By the time his contract is done, the team maybe be ready to challenge for a playoff spot again.

 

[coladin]

It's really shocking how no one as stepped up big time to take Karlsson away from us.

I don't find it shocking at all, actually.

This is the same player that some writers still leave off their Norris top 5 ballot. You have reputable coaches that think a new award should be created for him because this style of defenceman is not a Norris caliber defenceman. He makes awful gaffes especially in front of his net.

I am not saying that they are right but this sentiment is out there. We see it on the main boards too, right? We have all defended Karlsson to the max. I just don't think there are many markets out there that think he is worth not only the prospects, but the contract. I think a lot of GMs have more time for Doughty than Karlsson.

Karlsson is worth more in Ottawa because this city has embraced him, warts and all. He would be foolish to leave. So long as Melinda is digging in her heels, he ain't leaving. But I believe that aspect , the biggest aspect, is coming around to leaving.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If we were actually dumping that 7.5M in good faith, and were going to use that money towards retaining or adding more effective players than Ryan, there's a situation where the best value deal could be one that includes Ryan.

There's value in dumping money/cap.

I'm not suggesting we should turn down a deal that blows away the second best offer because the second best offer includes taking Ryan. But if the two best offers are relatively close, and the lesser one includes the team taking Ryan, that's wouldn't a bad deal at all.

(Now, we're probably not dumping Ryan in good faith. There are rumblings that Melnyk may want to spend as close to or below the cap floor as possible...)

 

[BatherSeason]

A question I have is, does he report for camp if he's not traded?
FWIW, I say he does. Seems like too much class there to hold out.

Holding out in a contract year could be a very bad financial decision for Karlsson.

 

[topshelf15]

Holding out in a contract year could be a very bad financial decision for Karlsson.

Yep ,there is going to be pressure on EK as well to help facilitate a sign and trade as well

 

[Ice-Tray]

Could it just be a little possible that he re-signs..... Man, as long as there's no deal done there is a chance! Super quiet these days thankfully, hmmmmm, makes me wonder/hope.

 

[topshelf15]

Could it just be a little possible that he re-signs..... Man, as long as there's no deal done there is a chance! Super quiet these days thankfully, hmmmmm, makes me wonder/hope.

He could very well resign,all though some things would be needed to be aired out completely ...And both sides need to do this honestly and man up....

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Could it just be a little possible that he re-signs..... Man, as long as there's no deal done there is a chance! Super quiet these days thankfully, hmmmmm, makes me wonder/hope.

If he resigns wouldn't it have been done long ago? I don't see a scenario where re-signing would take this long even if there were on going negotiations on salary expecially given managements demeanor when it came to offering him a contract.
Seems to me like the Sens are just waiting for the best possible return before shipping him out

 

[Xspyrit]

If we were actually dumping that 7.5M in good faith, and were going to use that money towards retaining or adding more effective players than Ryan, there's a situation where the best value deal could be one that includes Ryan.

There's value in dumping money/cap.

I'm not suggesting we should turn down a deal that blows away the second best offer because the second best offer includes taking Ryan. But if the two best offers are relatively close, and the lesser one includes the team taking Ryan, that's wouldn't a bad deal at all.

(Now, we're probably not dumping Ryan in good faith. There are rumblings that Melnyk may want to spend as close to or below the cap floor as possible...)

The problem is they won't "use that money towards retaining or adding more effective players than Ryan". Even if let's say Drake Batherson makes the team and replace Ryan more effectively (that would mean scoring at over 0.50 PPG, more if Ryan is healthier), the money saved won't be used towards what we all wish.

Ryan is not a cap dump, sure he could be on a team that is stacked up front and up against the cap, but it really isn't the case in Ottawa anymore

Dump Ryan and then you have

- 2 first liners (Stone, Duchene)
- 2 second liners (Dzingel, Boedker)
- 2 third liners (Pageau, Smith)
- 3 fourth liners, 13th forward (Paajarvi, Pyatt, McCormick)

You have Colin White ready to take a spot but you still need 3 rookies to complete your forward group. You would need one to be at 1st line level, one to be an excellent 2nd line center and a guy to complete your 4th line. Depending on what White is able to do, you already have 2 big holes to fill up front. "Dumping Ryan" just creates another hole.

Trading Ryan right now is really stupid. You won't be able to invest that money on anybody more effective in UFA. The only thing it does is saving Melnyk more money. This proves Ottawa has no business being in the NHL right now.

 

[Silencio]

If he resigns wouldn't it have been done long ago? I don't see a scenario where re-signing would take this long even if there were on going negotiations on salary especially given managements demeanor when it comes to offering him a contract especially given managements demeanor when it came to offering him a contract.
Seems to me like the Sens are just waiting for the best possible return before shipping him out

It's possible (though unlikely) that negotiations are still taking place - Bobby Ryan didn't sign his extension until just before training camp if I remember correctly.

 

[topshelf15]

It's possible (though unlikely) that negotiations are still taking place - Bobby Ryan didn't sign his extension until just before training camp if I remember correctly.

For this too happen ,EM and EK need to have a clear and united understanding on which way the team is headed...EM says budget team and EK likely walks...EM changes his tune and gives into being more flexible moving forward and maybe there would be a chance

 

[Ice-Tray]

If he resigns wouldn't it have been done long ago? I don't see a scenario where re-signing would take this long even if there were on going negotiations on salary especially given managements demeanor when it comes to offering him a contract especially given managements demeanor when it came to offering him a contract.
Seems to me like the Sens are just waiting for the best possible return before shipping him out

It's possible that it would have been, but there is also the possibility that there are talks going on about personal things, team direction, ownership, and then of course family.

Who knows, really. I mean EK has made it clear that he loves the city, just maybe something can get done. It's good that he hasn't been traded, ad it's good that we're hearing nothing at all from the team or player.

Added bonus; Alfie wants him to stay!

 

[DJB]

Lots of scrubs can string together a decent 20 games. The good GMs won't get baited by it. Zack Smith turned a good run of 20-30 games into a 4 year contract. Hammond. There's loads of them prior.

Look out side those 20 games and look at literally hundreds of games for the Sens where he's failed to be a consistent top 6 producer while being useless everywhere else on the ice. I would take literally any player who can skate well over him. Smith, Burrows and Ryan were literally amongst the worst forwards in the entire NHL last season.

And so was the rest of this team honestly. To me that tells me that coaching alone played a major role in our entire team sucking.

Coaching needs to be taken more into account as to explain why some guys were brutal last year.

 

[6stringmofo]

I feel like a lot of what's been reported is just the TO Media trying to shit on the Senators. Nothing is coming out from management, nothing is coming out from the players, it's just the media located in TO, making shit up, at least that what it feels like.

 

[DueDiligence]

I don't find it shocking at all, actually.

This is the same player that some writers still leave off their Norris top 5 ballot. You have reputable coaches that think a new award should be created for him because this style of defenceman is not a Norris caliber defenceman. He makes awful gaffes especially in front of his net.

I am not saying that they are right but this sentiment is out there. We see it on the main boards too, right? We have all defended Karlsson to the max. I just don't think there are many markets out there that think he is worth not only the prospects, but the contract. I think a lot of GMs have more time for Doughty than Karlsson.

Karlsson is worth more in Ottawa because this city has embraced him, warts and all. He would be foolish to leave. So long as Melinda is digging in her heels, he ain't leaving. But I believe that aspect , the biggest aspect, is coming around to leaving.

Brian Burke said as much. He felt only certain teams would embrace Karlsson's style of play and that DD is seen as more of a "complete" player. As much as many Sens fans disagree the common perception of EK is that he is a below average defender.

 

[6stringmofo]

Brian Burke said as much. He felt only certain teams would embrace Karlsson's style of play and that DD is seen as more of a "complete" player. As much as many Sens fans disagree the common perception of EK is that he is a below average defender.

You don't have to defend when the puck is in the opposing team's zone, as it was in the 2017/18 season. I think the locker room was broken and it wasn't addressed soon enough.