Kadri, how is this even possible?

[DarkKnight]

Looks like grandpa Kadri is beating back father time.

 

[The Apologist]

What's that I see ... oh it's the "Kadri is in a decline" narrative flying out the window. Oh well, ridiculous as it was, it was at least entertaining for a little bit. Bon voyage.

No worries, it's inevitable that Kadri will have a pointless game or three down the road, then I'm sure the trend line junkie will be doing his dance again.

Kadri!

You realize you sound just as ridiculous using one great game as your 'proof' right?

Should we expect that on the next slump you'll be in here touting how terrible he is or is it just everyone else who has to be impartial?

Naz had a good game.

 

[4thline]

The thing is- the best aging/productivity study actually supported the idea that he was in a slump earlier and would rebound.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You realize you sound just as ridiculous using one great game as your 'proof' right?

Should we expect that on the next slump you'll be in here touting how terrible he is or is it just everyone else who has to be impartial?

Naz had a good game.

Point sailed over your head - the entire season so far is your "proof".

And just to be clear, the only thing proven so far is that talk of Kadri being on a declining trend was premature, that's it. But what can you do, when one has an agenda, one has an agenda and logic and reason fly out the window.

 

[Pookie]

The thing is- the best aging/productivity study actually supported the idea that he was in a slump earlier and would rebound.

And would still produce at 90% of his peak.

Which is 10% less

 

[RLF]

Let the games begin.lol

 

[Pookie]

You realize you sound just as ridiculous using one great game as your 'proof' right?

Should we expect that on the next slump you'll be in here touting how terrible he is or is it just everyone else who has to be impartial?

Naz had a good game.

Weird too since he predicted a 26% decline to finish out the contract.

Which is odd since even the aging models don’t necessarily suggest that his downturn from peak would be that dramatic.

 

[4thline]

And would still produce at 90% of his peak.

Which is 10% less

Not entirely accurate. Tulsky's 5v5 production model shows a 10% drop in average 5v5 production from an age 24 peak to age 29. Kadri is 28 and peaked at 26.
Furthermore Tulsky has found that PP scoring is more resistant to age effects, showing very little year over year decline until the 30's.

90% would be the lower bound of a purely "average player aging curve" based prediction.

But even if you go with 90, the difference between a 55 point C in the 3 slot and a 61 point C in the 3 slot... not really worth bringing up, and rather immaterial when speculating about the same player on a ~40 point pace early in the season

 

[ULF_55]

Kadri always plays better when he's with better players.
Although, it isn't showing up on the scoresheet, having Nylander back gives the Leafs another top end player, one who can move/carry the puck.
https://www.tsn.ca/nylander-just-needs-a-bounce-1.1229339

Until Marner last year he was in a dreadful slump, but so was Marner.

He is exactly 1 year younger than Ennis.
He is tied with Marleau for 6th. in goals.
He is a core piece, but isn't one of the core pieces, and let's not forget he's 28, all players age out, although skating keeps some players in the league longer.

 

[RLF]

Kadri always plays better when he's with better players.
Although, it isn't showing up on the scoresheet, having Nylander back gives the Leafs another top end player, one who can move/carry the puck.
https://www.tsn.ca/nylander-just-needs-a-bounce-1.1229339

Until Marner last year he was in a dreadful slump, but so was Marner.

He is exactly 1 year younger than Ennis.
He is tied with Marleau for 6th. in goals.
He is a core piece, but isn't one of the core pieces, and let's not forget he's 28, all players age out, although skating keeps some players in the league longer.

Yea, but generally all players do. Kadri has been fine and we have so much depth, he will get his points.

 

[ULF_55]

Yea, but generally all players do. Kadri has been fine and we have so much depth, he will get his points.

Exactly.

He's perfect for the 3rd. line in a speed league.

 

[RLF]

Exactly.

He's perfect for the 3rd. line in a speed league.

Sadly it may come down to the cap for Kadri's future. If Matthews gets say $12.5(don't think around that is unreasonable to predict) can the Leafs afford $28M ($9.33M average per centre) for their top 3 centres?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Sadly it may come down to the cap for Kadri's future. If Matthews gets say $12.5(don't think around that is unreasonable to predict) can the Leafs afford $28M ($9.33M average per centre) for their top 3 centres?

Way too early to worry about this IMO. At some point down the road we'll see what the cap is, who else we have at centre, what level he's playing at and what his contract demands are etc. but for now ... he's still signed for 3 years after this one so may as well just enjoy the moment(s). If we go on a cup run in the next or year three, odds are that Kadri will be right in the thick of things and we're lucky to have him, that's all I'm thinking about for the time being.

 

[RLF]

Way too early to worry about this IMO. At some point down the road we'll see what the cap is, who else we have at centre, what level he's playing at and what his contract demands are etc. but for now ... he's still signed for 3 years after this one so may as well just enjoy the moment(s). If we go on a cup run in the next or year three, odds are that Kadri will be right in the thick of things and we're lucky to have him, that's all I'm thinking about for the time being.

Not worried about it...all I'm saying it it is just a possibility and would be sad if that is how things have to play out. We have the best top 3 centres per team in the League right now imo. I would like to keep that intact, but understand it may not be possible depending on cap and other needs of team.

 

[Big Cactus]

Sadly it may come down to the cap for Kadri's future. If Matthews gets say $12.5(don't think around that is unreasonable to predict) can the Leafs afford $28M ($9.33M average per centre) for their top 3 centres?

It doesn’t matter really. Even if the third line centre gets paid $1M it still averages out to $8.17M. The Centre position is probably the most important position in the game. I don’t have a problem paying for it.

 

[RLF]

It doesn’t matter really. Even if the third line centre gets paid $1M it still averages out to $8.17M. The Centre position is probably the most important position in the game. I don’t have a problem paying for it.

I was just showing the average for reference, I know even if the 3rd line gets $3M it wouldn't change the average much. Point was, if they can move Kadri for help somewhere else and then pay less for his position, they may feel they have to consider it.

 

[Big Cactus]

I was just showing the average for reference, I know even if the 3rd line gets $3M it wouldn't change the average much. Point was, if they can move Kadri for help somewhere else and then pay less for his position, they may feel they have to consider it.

Nah I get what you’re saying and I agree. I think our forward depth is our identity and we should keep it. Kadri-Nylander + whoever could arguably be a first line on teams like Arizona and NYR. That’s fantastic going into the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It doesn’t matter really. Even if the third line centre gets paid $1M it still averages out to $8.17M. The Centre position is probably the most important position in the game. I don’t have a problem paying for it.

Yeah the people who don't like Kadri have been saying for some time now that "you just can't pay your 3rd line centre that much" blah blah blah. It's just arbitrary nonsense, nothing more. It's like the guy who said the other day that Kadri HAS TO score 20 goals because he's being paid X dollars but drawing arbitrary lines only sets you up for looking foolish later. Kadri probably will score 20 goals but if he ends up with 19 it doesn't matter, Kadri has to play well and help us win, that's it. He's been over performing his contract from the day it was signed, that's the bottom line.

The only people who have a problem with Kadri are people with an agenda, it's that simple.

 

[RLF]

Nah I get what you’re saying and I agree. I think our forward depth is our identity and we should keep it. Kadri-Nylander + whoever could arguably be a first line on teams like Arizona and NYR. That’s fantastic going into the playoffs.

Funny, I was just thinking about how our third line is as good as some poorer teams 1st line and better than others second line. This year is no issue, will be interesting to see how next summer works out though.

 

[Pookie]

Not entirely accurate. Tulsky's 5v5 production model shows a 10% drop in average 5v5 production from an age 24 peak to age 29. Kadri is 28 and peaked at 26.
Furthermore Tulsky has found that PP scoring is more resistant to age effects, showing very little year over year decline until the 30's.

90% would be the lower bound of a purely "average player aging curve" based prediction.

But even if you go with 90, the difference between a 55 point C in the 3 slot and a 61 point C in the 3 slot... not really worth bringing up, and rather immaterial when speculating about the same player on a ~40 point pace early in the season

As you know, there is no quarrel with his role as a 3C.

I agree. I think Gary was a little premature in projecting 40ish points to finish his contract.

We’ll see though. Maybe Gary is right.

 

[ULF_55]

Funny, I was just thinking about how our third line is as good as some poorer teams 1st line and better than others second line. This year is no issue, will be interesting to see how next summer works out though.

Perhaps the injury to Hyman is a bit of a blessing, otherwise I'm not sure we'd have seen Kadri-Nylander-Brown line which to me has looked good.

 

[Pookie]

It doesn’t matter really. Even if the third line centre gets paid $1M it still averages out to $8.17M. The Centre position is probably the most important position in the game. I don’t have a problem paying for it.

I do if it means not adding a D to replace Gardiner and Hainsey.

And I think we can have a debate if it meant C depth or losing Kapanen.

But that’s another thread entirely. Lots of permutations and combinations to be reviewed.

 

[Guided by Veseys]

It really bothers me when people say that Kadri’s poor play is a result of his linemates, people need to stop making excuses for him.
Also this recent hot streak is obviously due to his linemates. Once his linemates cool down we will see that downward trend again. It could take a few more years but eventually we are going to see statistical evidence of his decline.

 

[RLF]

Perhaps the injury to Hyman is a bit of a blessing, otherwise I'm not sure we'd have seen Kadri-Nylander-Brown line which to me has looked good.

Doesn't Kadri-Marleau-Kapanen sound pretty enticing as well? That would be a likely line if all healthy(and Willy playing well). Wouldn't it?

 

[Leafsfan74]

I've not been Kadris biggest fan, I think he crosses the line sometimes, or at least, had in the past. That said, he is becoming a more complete player and is precisely the kind of guy we need for the playoffs.

He isn't playing as reckless, he is generating many opportunities for himself and teammates, probably hit more posts than any other player in the league this year. He's strong on the puck, playing good two way hockey and doesn't get as frustrated on the ice (he still does at times, but less than in the past).

If he plays as he can in the playoffs, he will be a major cog. I don't even care about player points this year, I know we ll get caught up in it, I want to see this team go deep in the playoffs and win. That's going to require unselfish players, working together as a unit, fighting hard through adversity. I've seen Kadri do that this year.