Sportsnet: Kadri deserves Leafs’ top-line role

[BraveCanadian]

Except kadri is much better than bozak defensively. Allows less shot attempts against per game and attempts more shots per game. Spends more time in the oppositions zone. Don't know where people come up with this stuff...

This guy will tell you why:

Yeah, Kadri has better Corsi numbers... that'll happen when you don't play with Kessel/JvR (who are rush-reliant scorers) and don't play in tough defensive matchups.

Tada!

 

[socko]

I like Phil with Bozak better. Neither Bozak or Kadri can skate with Phil and JVR but I think Bozak does a much better job of passing the puck and not making Phil and JVR wait at the blueline when they should be rushing full speed ahead.

 

[King85Kong]

I like Phil with Bozak better. Neither Bozak or Kadri can skate with Phil and JVR but I think Bozak does a much better job of passing the puck and not making Phil and JVR wait at the blueline when they should be rushing full speed ahead.

Stats show that JVR and Kessel do better with Kadri then Bozak. Actually everyone but Franson did better with Kadri.

It turns out that in the 271 minutes Kadri played with Kessel and Van Riemsdyk last season, that line’s CF% was 49.3. In the 831 minutes Bozak played with those wingers, their CF% was only 46.2 (stats courtesy of Progressivehockey.com).

As the graph shows, with only a single exception (defenceman Cody Franson) every single Leaf did considerably better when playing with Kadri than with Bozak. In some cases (wingers Joffrey Lupul, David Clakson, Mason Raymond) the differences were astronomical.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs...on_maple_leafs_top_line_despite_himself.html#

 

[JGuardz]

Stats show that JVR and Kessel do better with Kadri then Bozak. Actually everyone but Franson did better with Kadri.



http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs...on_maple_leafs_top_line_despite_himself.html#

How about zone starts? If Bozak is taking a defensive zone faceoff, then his corsi will be skewed down because if he loses he's on the ice for a barrage of shots, if he wins then he gets off and Kadri has the puck already up the ice. This is why analytics is supposed to be used as a supplement, not as an end-all.

 

[King85Kong]

How about zone starts? If Bozak is taking a defensive zone faceoff, then his corsi will be skewed down because if he loses he's on the ice for a barrage of shots, if he wins then he gets off and Kadri has the puck already up the ice. This is why analytics is supposed to be used as a supplement, not as an end-all.

What about Bozak playing with two all-star wingers. The stats will be skewed with Kadri playing with weaker linemates. Bozak has the advantage of two players who can skate the puck up the ice with a good chance to score. Goes both ways.

 

[socko]

I can respect advanced stats, I'm not Nonis. But when I see Kadri playing around with the puck and making his slow stick handling moves while Phil is trying to fast break, I just don't think it's a good matchup at all. Kadri is a bit of a puck hog.

 

[Semantics]

How about zone starts? If Bozak is taking a defensive zone faceoff, then his corsi will be skewed down because if he loses he's on the ice for a barrage of shots, if he wins then he gets off and Kadri has the puck already up the ice. This is why analytics is supposed to be used as a supplement, not as an end-all.

All the possession stats are available in zone-start adjusted form and Bozak doesn't fare much better.

Furthermore, it doesn't make sense to assume Bozak has bad possession because he gets more defensive zone starts. Maybe he gets more defensive zone faceoffs because he's bad at possession.

 

[Semantics]

This guy will tell you why:

Tada!

Quality of competition has been proven to vary only minimally between players - over a full season worth of data it all averages out.

Out of all the mitigating factors like QoT, QoC, and zone starts, it's been proven that QoC has the smallest correlation with Corsi. It's almost completely insignificant in fact.

So that guy's point is moot and he doesn't know a damn thing about advanced stats.

Also, it might be the first time I've seen someone argue that playing with all-star wingers is an excuse for bad possession numbers. Funny how Kessel had some of the best possession stats on his team when he played in Boston, when he played with Stajan, and when he played with Grabovski.

 

[Semantics]

Since people are blaming Bozak's bad possession stats on zone starts, let's nip that in the bud right now. Here is Kessel's zone start adjusted 5v5 close CF% last season.

With Kadri: 51.3%
With Bozak: 43.3%

Interestingly, when the game is NOT close, Kessel's CF% with Kadri drops a lot and with Bozak increases (to 47.8% and 44.5% respectively), which suggests that Bozak's line is more dominant in blowouts and tends to sit back in close games, while Kadri's is the opposite.

 

[Orfieus]

I disagree.

 

[Semantics]

It's not just CF incidentally, it's also goals for vs goals against. Kessel's zone start adjusted GF% (GA20) last year in close situations:

With Kadri: 69.2% (0.523 GA20)
With Bozak: 58.1% (0.825 GA20)

In close games Kessel's line scored at the same rate with Kadri/Bozak, but allowed WAY fewer goals against with Bozak.

I mean I always thought Kadri was the better player, but the deeper you dig into meaningful stats the more it becomes apparent that the two players are not really that close.

 

[Mindrust]

I can respect advanced stats, I'm not Nonis. But when I see Kadri playing around with the puck and making his slow stick handling moves while Phil is trying to fast break, I just don't think it's a good matchup at all. Kadri is a bit of a puck hog.

A puck hog is someone who holds onto the puck for selfish reasons. Kadri holds onto the puck to make the perfect pass/play, which is not selfish.

 

[ULF_55]

A puck hog is someone who holds onto the puck for selfish reasons. Kadri holds onto the puck to make the perfect pass/play, which is not selfish.

And the results of those perfect pass/plays?

Probably have to look at some non-advanced stats like points per game.

Last year PPG Ranking:

Kessel .98
Bozak .94
van Riemsdyk .76
Kadri / Lupul .64

Past 5 years Leafs have had 2 players with PPG or higher, Lupul and Kessel.

Looks like the wingers drive the offense.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Also, it might be the first time I've seen someone argue that playing with all-star wingers is an excuse for bad possession numbers. Funny how Kessel had some of the best possession stats on his team when he played in Boston, when he played with Stajan, and when he played with Grabovski.

It isn't just QoC.

Bozak for some time was the only player on the Leafs who could win a faceoff.

Also Kessel is a terrible defensive player. He shoots a lot and looks good in that respect but that is basically all he does as a player. Carry the puck where he can get a shot and shoot it.

JVR isn't much better.

Kadri is a more talented player than Bozak for sure. I don't happen to like either of them very much but I think that much is obvious.

However, JVR and Kessel need someone between them who can win draws and remember where the Leafs end is.. I think Bozak is better suited to playing with them.

 

[bunjay]

Do people really not grasp that Kadri's possession numbers would not be the same if he was playing with Kessel and JVR instead of Lupul and Winnik?

Hmmm, rush-scorers vs. strong board and cycle wingers...

 

[SeenSchenn2]

Okay, I'm an analytics guy (I don't bring them up every time someone says something like others), and I know the numbers suggest Kadri is better defensively than Bozak.... but this is flat-out wrong; if you watch the game anyway

 

[false bobo]

A puck hog is someone who holds onto the puck for selfish reasons. Kadri holds onto the puck to make the perfect pass/play, which is not selfish.

I think you missed his point.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

A puck hog is someone who holds onto the puck for selfish reasons. Kadri holds onto the puck to make the perfect pass/play, which is not selfish.

Kadri needs the puck to be effective, he likes to slow down the play whereas JVR and Kessel like to speed it up through the neutral zone, Bozak is simply more effective passing the puck through the neutral zone, freeing Kessel or JVR on a counter attack.

This is No different than a defenceman that makes a good first pass.

Kadri likes to slow down play, Kessel and JVR want to speed it up.

 

[ULF_55]

Is Kadri better than Kessel?

What do the advanced stats say about this?

Perhaps the 1st. line should be like this?

van Riemsdyk-Kadri-Lupul

then something like this for the 2nd. line?

Komarov-Bozak-Kessel

 

[MajorityRules*]

Quality of competition has been proven to vary only minimally between players - over a full season worth of data it all averages out.

Out of all the mitigating factors like QoT, QoC, and zone starts, it's been proven that QoC has the smallest correlation with Corsi. It's almost completely insignificant in fact.

So that guy's point is moot and he doesn't know a damn thing about advanced stats.

Also, it might be the first time I've seen someone argue that playing with all-star wingers is an excuse for bad possession numbers. Funny how Kessel had some of the best possession stats on his team when he played in Boston, when he played with Stajan, and when he played with Grabovski.

I'm not really into the advanced stats thing but something about your post seems odd.

How can QoC be so insignificant? Shouldn't it be more likely that playing against the other teams #1 line would result in a greater chance of being scored on vice playing against the #2, 3 or 4th line? In some cases by a large margin.

Not trying to argue, but I guess I just don't understand why QoC would not be important. I've never really looked at the math.

 

[ULF_55]

I'm not really into the advanced stats thing but something about your post seems odd.

How can QoC be so insignificant? Shouldn't it be more likely that playing against the other teams #1 line would result in a greater chance of being scored on vice playing against the #2, 3 or 4th line? In some cases by a large margin.

Not trying to argue, but I guess I just don't understand why QoC would not be important. I've never really looked at the math.

Quality isn't a big part of the advanced stats.

All events are equal.

A shot by McClement is equal to a shot by Ovechkin.
A shot wide of the net is equal to a goal by Kessel.

 

[11111111111]

I'm not really into the advanced stats thing but something about your post seems odd.

How can QoC be so insignificant? Shouldn't it be more likely that playing against the other teams #1 line would result in a greater chance of being scored on vice playing against the #2, 3 or 4th line? In some cases by a large margin.

Not trying to argue, but I guess I just don't understand why QoC would not be important. I've never really looked at the math.

As Semantics said, over a full season of data it averages out. At the end of the year, the difficulty of Bozak's 5v5 minutes will not vary in QoC in an important way from Kadri's. Moreover, even if differences did exist, those differences have no correlation - positive or negative - with Corsi scores. Of course, if we look at one's advanced stats for any given game, these differences may matter, but no one who knows advanced stats would ever suggest drawing any conclusion from a sample size that small. This (somewhat lengthy) article explains it well, using the Leafs' D as examples:

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/01/06...-players-stats-toronto-maple-leafs-d-edition/

Also, more on topic, I think splitting Kadri rom Kessel and JVR is a good idea for now. The Leafs have been a one line team in the past and it didn't work well. If we could replace Bozak with someone else completely, that would be great. But while we are stuck with him, may as well hide his defects by playing him with the best 2 wingers.

 

[Cor]

Or, we can keep the Lupul Kadri Winnik line together, and not worry about who is playing on what numbered line

 

[Leafidelity]

Or, we can keep the Lupul Kadri Winnik line together, and not worry about who is playing on what numbered line

So much this.

Bozak is getting 18:55 a game. Kadri is getting 17:58. What exactly is Kadri being deprived of here? Taking the opening faceoff? Wearing a white practise jersey?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Kessel/Bozak/JVR have the uncanny ability to just find each other on the ice. Everyone is going on about how Bozie wouldn't be a #1 C on any other team, he too small blah blah blah. Well guess what, he is not on any other team. He plays for the Leafs and is the #1 C. Get over it. He is great on the PP, great 2 way player, great on defensive zone face offs and he is consistent.

They put up a ot of points but are horrid defensively. I think that's why they need to look at splitting them up. Not that Naz is the answer cuz he's bad defensively too