Sportsnet: Kadri deserves Leafs’ top-line role

[leafsfuture]

I know everyone in the world is jumping on the advanced stats bandwagon INCLUDING NHL teams, but lets just stop for a second and do a quick old fashioned player v player analysis.

Based on watching BOTH, I see one simple reason why Bozak meshes so well with Kessel -- that is he has a good first step, and makes a good first pass. Now we commonly associate the term "first pass" with a defenseman, but Bozak is defintely strong at making good passes up to both Kessel and JVR around our defensive blue line and the neutral zone. If he gets the puck in these areas, he is very good of making a pass to those guys within 1 second.

This area has always been somewhat of a weak point for Kadri. Simply because his overall skillset is higher, Kadri has always had trouble making that simple headman play. And im not saying its because he chooses not to, its that he often doesnt look for it. When Kadri gets the puck in the neutral zone, his mind immedietly turns to the opposing defenseman -- "where are they", "how can I get by them", "do I have an opporunity to chip it in"

Meanwhile Bozak, when he gets the puck in the neutral zone, immeditely thinks "Kessel, JVR, where are they". Once he spots them, he makes the quick pass.

As a result, Bozak naturally fits into that counter-attack / rush style that Kessel and JVR thrive on. Kadri is more of a possession type player, who prefers to get pucks in deep, and work a cycle, where his (and Lupul's) maneuverability and slick puck skills can beat defenders.

Until Kadri gets better at the quick "recieve and release" passes, Bozak will always be a better fit with Kessel. Thats not a knock on Kadri, his style is just different. It can change depending on how his improvement as a player occures, but this is just a style difference

 

[MajorityRules*]

probably because that idiot Ferraro said in the third that Kadri hadn't had a good game, so that's what fans now think.

I thought he and Lupul looked out of sync in the 1st and 2nd. I've seen them play better. Those I sat with felt the same.

Well I guess that shreds that theory eh Zeke?

I'm not against seeing Kadri playing on a line with Kessel and JVR and moving Bozak down to the 2nd line. What I would like to see is a comparison of total points for both lines. One with Kadri on the top line and one with Bozak. In other words, I'd like to see if after they switched, both lines continued to contribute as well as both lines do now. If they don't, then I don't see the point in swapping them.

Maybe Kadri does make the line better but if it has too much of a negative effect on the other line then it's not worth it.

 

[Falon]

Everything should be left as it is, except that Kadri should be on the #1 PP unit. They reason being is that they get the bulk of the PP time and I have noticed that in every game, the Leafs have a hell of a time just getting into the offensive zone. Moving Kadri to the #1 pp would have several positive results:

1 - a much more effective powerplay.

2 - continue to improve his faceoff skills playing against other teams top defensive centers.

3 - if he loses the draw, he has little issue getting back into the zone.

4 - if the play turns, they are still on the pp and have a much easier time getting the puck back.

Realistically, only positives would come out of it, although Kessel might dislike playing with him instead of his bud.

 

[diceman934]

probably because that idiot Ferraro said in the third that Kadri hadn't had a good game, so that's what fans now think.

Ferraro should stop drinking his bath water.....Kadri had a very good game...his play away from the puck has been very good this year.

He has always been good at making good reads and understanding where the place was to put the puck. Lupul has had a good start to his season and with Winik playing well and hard of the forecheck it is playing into Kadri's hand very well.

 

[zeke]

Everything should be left as it is, except that Kadri should be on the #1 PP unit. They reason being is that they get the bulk of the PP time and I have noticed that in every game, the Leafs have a hell of a time just getting into the offensive zone. Moving Kadri to the #1 pp would have several positive results:

1 - a much more effective powerplay.

2 - continue to improve his faceoff skills playing against other teams top defensive centers.

3 - if he loses the draw, he has little issue getting back into the zone.

4 - if the play turns, they are still on the pp and have a much easier time getting the puck back.

Realistically, only positives would come out of it, although Kessel might dislike playing with him instead of his bud.

And it could really work well with Kadri mirroring Kessel on the other side of the ice, with JVR down low.

 

[diceman934]

I know everyone in the world is jumping on the advanced stats bandwagon INCLUDING NHL teams, but lets just stop for a second and do a quick old fashioned player v player analysis.

Based on watching BOTH, I see one simple reason why Bozak meshes so well with Kessel -- that is he has a good first step, and makes a good first pass. Now we commonly associate the term "first pass" with a defenseman, but Bozak is defintely strong at making good passes up to both Kessel and JVR around our defensive blue line and the neutral zone. If he gets the puck in these areas, he is very good of making a pass to those guys within 1 second.

This area has always been somewhat of a weak point for Kadri. Simply because his overall skillset is higher, Kadri has always had trouble making that simple headman play. And im not saying its because he chooses not to, its that he often doesnt look for it. When Kadri gets the puck in the neutral zone, his mind immedietly turns to the opposing defenseman -- "where are they", "how can I get by them", "do I have an opporunity to chip it in"

Meanwhile Bozak, when he gets the puck in the neutral zone, immeditely thinks "Kessel, JVR, where are they". Once he spots them, he makes the quick pass.

As a result, Bozak naturally fits into that counter-attack / rush style that Kessel and JVR thrive on. Kadri is more of a possession type player, who prefers to get pucks in deep, and work a cycle, where his (and Lupul's) maneuverability and slick puck skills can beat defenders.

Until Kadri gets better at the quick "recieve and release" passes, Bozak will always be a better fit with Kessel. Thats not a knock on Kadri, his style is just different. It can change depending on how his improvement as a player occures, but this is just a style difference

I will give you something to think about....

Do you know what would make Kessel more dangerous.....not have the puck! He has a great release and as he has to carry the puck more then he should, his goals have never reached the level that they should have. The most dangerous person on the ice is the player without the puck. He can distribute the puck very well, but he should be the shooter on that line and not the distributor of the puck.

With a good puck distributor Kessels total points would increase, but more importantly his goals, and that is what wins hockey games, scoring!

I could elaborate more, but will only add this.....goal scoring only on the rush is an issue.

 

[Menzinger]

Kadri is a better fit for the top line - I really don't buy the claim that Bozak is 'good' defensively, especially given the various statistical arguments against this claim. The only reasonable argument I can think of of keeping Kadri off it, is to balance out the offense a bit more between the lines.

Kadri absolutely should be given #1 power play duties over Bozak though: this should not even be debatable.

I'm not saying Kessel is a good possession player in his own right though. There's a lot more to driving possession than zone exits and entrances. I'd say that overall, Bozak and Kessel are both pretty mediocre at driving possession and when you put them together you get a line that's continuously hemmed into it's own zone. They are an elite line at scoring on the rush though.

Why do you say this? Not trying to attack you or anything, but i'm genuinely curious.

By all standard means of measuring possession (zone entries/exists, and the various corsi/fenwick related stats) Kessel has very strong numbers.

 

[Bodybr3ak]

Why would we change anything? We've got two centers that look primed for 60-70pt seasons in their current positions.

For the first time in YEARS Toronto is looking solid down the middle and fans/media are still complaining.

 

[seanlinden]

Presumably our "analytics" department would be WELL aware of the differences between Bozak and Kadri's possession numbers, and might not view Bozak as a good "two-way" centre as he's largely been labeled by fans/media.

Im not really sure where the label came from. He's had incredibly high goals against, poor possession numbers, been ineffective on the PK, etc for essentially his whole career. He was briefly doing well at faceoffs, but thats about it. My only guess is that since he doesnt have great offensive numbers, that labelling him as "good defensively" was a way to help Leafs Nation sleep well at night and help justify why he was given the 1st line C role on a silver platter.

Last season and into the small sample size of this season, he's been showing more offensive ability at least. We'll see what he can sustain over 82 games, because he still is yet to hit 50 points in an NHL season for a variety of reasons.

Presumably so, and that's why they've correctly identified Bozak to be the ideal centre for JvR & Kessel.

Yeah, Kadri has better Corsi numbers... that'll happen when you don't play with Kessel/JvR (who are rush-reliant scorers) and don't play in tough defensive matchups.

What I do find funny though, is the amount of people suggesting that Kadri's a better choice at this point in time.... nevermind the fact that Bozak leads the team in points and goals right now. Maybe, each centre is exactly what their wingers need. Kessel/JvR need somebody to hang back, play defensively, head-man the puck to generate a rush-chance, and crash the crease for a rebound given the right situation. Lupul/Winnik need a creative player to carry the puck / distribute in the offensive zone.

 

[Kubus]

I will give you something to think about....

Do you know what would make Kessel more dangerous.....not have the puck! He has a great release and as he has to carry the puck more then he should, his goals have never reached the level that they should have. The most dangerous person on the ice is the player without the puck. He can distribute the puck very well, but he should be the shooter on that line and not the distributor of the puck.

With a good puck distributor Kessels total points would increase, but more importantly his goals, and that is what wins hockey games, scoring!

I could elaborate more, but will only add this.....goal scoring only on the rush is an issue.

Though you make a valid point, but the point is also why Kadri should not be put with Kessel. Kadri is also a scorer more than a playmaker.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why would we change anything? We've got two centers that look primed for 60-70pt seasons in their current positions.

For the first time in YEARS Toronto is looking solid down the middle and fans/media are still complaining.

Haha yeah, fair question.

I think people get hung up on cliches, they keep parroting things like "you can't win without a true #1 centre". Keep repeating it long enough, and you start to believe it forgetting that it's a stupid cliche, nothing more.

So far Bozak is looking good. He's picked up right where he left off last season. I have no idea if he can keep it up all season long but I don't think it's impossible. And if he does, then we could indeed be solid down the middle.

 

[ALEXJD93]

Kadri line has been better, they've had so much more zone time than the top line

That said, I don't think Bozak would produce similar results with lesser teammates

If it were me, I'd get Kadri on the first PP unit but keep him with Lupul, keep the ice time close for the top two lines

 

[Bodybr3ak]

Haha yeah, fair question.

I think people get hung up on cliches, they keep parroting things like "you can't win without a true #1 centre". Keep repeating it long enough, and you start to believe it forgetting that it's a stupid cliche, nothing more.

So far Bozak is looking good. He's picked up right where he left off last season. I have no idea if he can keep it up all season long but I don't think it's impossible. And if he does, then we could indeed be solid down the middle.

I feel like even if Bozak did post a 70pt season and the leafs made the playoffs people would still be complaining. Its like how everyone is going nuts over E.Staal right now yet I'd bet a considerable amount of money that Bozak produces a better statistical season.

Kadri line has been better, they've had so much more zone time than the top line

That said, I don't think Bozak would produce similar results with lesser teammates

If it were me, I'd get Kadri on the first PP unit but keep him with Lupul, keep the ice time close for the top two lines

Why tho? Bozak has looked great on that first unit and keeping Kadri on the second unit offers depth on the powerplay. Very few teams in the NHL can roll a second PP unit that can be as effective as their first group.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I feel like even if Bozak did post a 70pt season and the leafs made the playoffs people would still be complaining. Its like how everyone is going nuts over E.Staal right now yet I'd bet a considerable amount of money that Bozak produces a better statistical season.

Why tho? Bozak has looked great on that first unit and keeping Kadri on the second unit offers depth on the powerplay. Very few teams in the NHL can roll a second PP unit that can be as effective as their first group.

If we trade for Staal and include a 1st round pick in the deal I will feel like killing myself.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Being put on the top line isn't a reward that gets handed out. It's a position on the team. Swapping Kadri and Bozak doesn't make us better. So **** it. If Kadri is doing so spectacular just give his line more minutes instead of Kessel's.

He should be on the top PP, but otherwise, whatever. This is more about semantics and titles than it is about making the team better.

 

[King85Kong]

While Kadri is the better center, I think he should be kept on the second line. Kessel to lead the first line and Kadri to lead the second line. Plus Kadri's line has looked awesome so far. Tons of possession time and tons of chances, with points to go along; why break it up? Keep as is.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Id rather Kadri become the 'Kessel' of his line and make his linemates better. two weapons on two separate lines is better than two weapons on one line and none on the other.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Kessel/Bozak/JVR have the uncanny ability to just find each other on the ice. Everyone is going on about how Bozie wouldn't be a #1 C on any other team, he too small blah blah blah. Well guess what, he is not on any other team. He plays for the Leafs and is the #1 C. Get over it. He is great on the PP, great 2 way player, great on defensive zone face offs and he is consistent.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Kadri also might be putting up better numbers than Bozak because he doesn't face the opposing team's top defence pairing and checking line on a regular basis. I think Bozak and Kadri are both good players, but just leave the lines as they are.

 

[Mindrust]

Kadri also might be putting up better numbers than Bozak because he doesn't face the opposing team's top defence pairing and checking line on a regular basis. I think Bozak and Kadri are both good players, but just leave the lines as they are.

Actually, not true. Both Kadri and his linemates produce better when he's on the 1st line. But like others have said, it leaves the 2nd line in bad shape if he were to center the 1st.

Source: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs...on_maple_leafs_top_line_despite_himself.html#

 

[Leafsrock95]

Why do you say this? Not trying to attack you or anything, but i'm genuinely curious.

By all standard means of measuring possession (zone entries/exists, and the various corsi/fenwick related stats) Kessel has very strong numbers.

Just watch Kessel he doesn't make you shake your head half the time? Kessel isn't strong on the puck, give away machine (has to lead or be top 5 at least in give aways), has zero cycle game unless he's on the PP, weak on the boards, instead of pursuing a foot race for the puck he will let the other guy get the puck so he won't get hit, when the defense is set and he's rushing in the zone almost all the time he just stops around top of the circle and pass off to someone, he never goes to his backhand whether its for a backhand shot or driving with the puck on his backhand and if I think a bit longer I can probably think of some other things.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Based on watching BOTH, I see one simple reason why Bozak meshes so well with Kessel -- that is he has a good first step, and makes a good first pass. Now we commonly associate the term "first pass" with a defenseman, but Bozak is defintely strong at making good passes up to both Kessel and JVR around our defensive blue line and the neutral zone. If he gets the puck in these areas, he is very good of making a pass to those guys within 1 second.

It's funny you posted this like 16 posts after someone reminded us that Bozak was terrible at zone exits last season.

Now if you take those charts at face value, Bozak's pass% is marginally higher than Kadri's and his turnover% is slightly lower, but that's all dwarfed by the fact that he carried the puck out successfully barely half as often as Kadri. What you see as a strength in his game is just relative - he looks like he makes a good first pass because that's all he can do. He either can't or won't carry the puck.

Kessel/Bozak/JVR have the uncanny ability to just find each other on the ice. Everyone is going on about how Bozie wouldn't be a #1 C on any other team, he too small blah blah blah. Well guess what, he is not on any other team. He plays for the Leafs and is the #1 C. Get over it. He is great on the PP, great 2 way player, great on defensive zone face offs and he is consistent.

Bozak is far from great on the PP. He has had a hot streak on the PP to start the season after Percy fed him two sweet passes in prime scoring position. Maybe wait to see if he can keep it up for a full season?

 

[false bobo]

I know everyone in the world is jumping on the advanced stats bandwagon INCLUDING NHL teams, but lets just stop for a second and do a quick old fashioned player v player analysis.

Based on watching BOTH, I see one simple reason why Bozak meshes so well with Kessel -- that is he has a good first step, and makes a good first pass. Now we commonly associate the term "first pass" with a defenseman, but Bozak is defintely strong at making good passes up to both Kessel and JVR around our defensive blue line and the neutral zone. If he gets the puck in these areas, he is very good of making a pass to those guys within 1 second.

This area has always been somewhat of a weak point for Kadri. Simply because his overall skillset is higher, Kadri has always had trouble making that simple headman play. And im not saying its because he chooses not to, its that he often doesnt look for it. When Kadri gets the puck in the neutral zone, his mind immedietly turns to the opposing defenseman -- "where are they", "how can I get by them", "do I have an opporunity to chip it in"

Meanwhile Bozak, when he gets the puck in the neutral zone, immeditely thinks "Kessel, JVR, where are they". Once he spots them, he makes the quick pass.

As a result, Bozak naturally fits into that counter-attack / rush style that Kessel and JVR thrive on. Kadri is more of a possession type player, who prefers to get pucks in deep, and work a cycle, where his (and Lupul's) maneuverability and slick puck skills can beat defenders.

Until Kadri gets better at the quick "recieve and release" passes, Bozak will always be a better fit with Kessel. Thats not a knock on Kadri, his style is just different. It can change depending on how his improvement as a player occures, but this is just a style difference

The bolded really cannot be emphasized enough. Definitely a strength of his and a part of what makes that line click.

Hell of a post BTW. Everyone should give it a read.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

as much as I rip on Bozak if he puts a similar season in terms of ppg, he is a #1 centre. scrubs dont put up 70 points or play at 70 pt pace over 2 seasons. not in todays nhl

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

The bolded really cannot be emphasized enough. Definitely a strength of his and a part of what makes that line click.

Hell of a post BTW. Everyone should give it a read.

Ok let's go over this again even thought I linked you actual data showing that the bolded part is completely false:

Bozak is barely any better then Kadri at passing the puck out of the zone. The difference is basically noise.

Bozak is significantly worse than Kadri at carrying the puck out of the zone.

So how the **** does he have a great first step or pass? He's no better at Kadri than either of those things, he's just worse at carrying the puck.