Prospect Info: Justin Bailey (2013, 52nd) – '17-18: Rochester #95 (AHL)

Chainshot

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I don't mean this as an insult, but he seems on track to be at least a redux of McGinn, if not better. He's probably already better in his own zone....and seems like he's going to bring everything Ginner does right now.....

He may not ever have McGinn's pinball style of play -- hitting isn't really a big part of his game. Not that he can't contest pucks and win possession in high-traffic areas or along the wall, just that he's not particularly aggressive with his body on body contact. But the rest? Sure. And he has a ways to go to round out his defensive side and be more responsible.
 

Yatzhee

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Aug 5, 2010
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First couple of games.
He has energy, but he comes with defensive liabilities.
He goes to the net, smart boy, but he over commits along the half wall and down low sometimes.
He is decent at puck protection, but he hasn't learned to drive the net with those protection skills, leaving him as a perimeter player or net front presence as a trash collector.

In short, he has much work to do yet. Not bad for his first showing. He'll be one to watch over the next 3 seasons or so to gauge if he improves.

Right now I project him a solid 4th line RW'er with 3rd line energy guy potential.
 

Matt Ress

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Aug 5, 2014
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First couple of games.
He has energy, but he comes with defensive liabilities.
He goes to the net, smart boy, but he over commits along the half wall and down low sometimes.
He is decent at puck protection, but he hasn't learned to drive the net with those protection skills, leaving him as a perimeter player or net front presence as a trash collector.

In short, he has much work to do yet. Not bad for his first showing. He'll be one to watch over the next 3 seasons or so to gauge if he improves.

Right now I project him a solid 4th line RW'er with 3rd line energy guy potential.

Good analysis. He has misplayed pucks all over the ice actually which has been my biggest concern. I like to think he can tighten that up in the next couple call ups though. If you've gotten a chance to watch him Rochester, he's been pretty aggressive getting the puck to the net especially in the last month or two. He was pushing that in his first game up but you can see him trying to adjust to the system and focus more on the cycle in games #2 and #3. His vision and IQ May be his biggest hurdle but I can see him as an effective middle 6er with PP potential.
 

dire wolf

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First couple of games.
He has energy, but he comes with defensive liabilities.
He goes to the net, smart boy, but he over commits along the half wall and down low sometimes.
He is decent at puck protection, but he hasn't learned to drive the net with those protection skills, leaving him as a perimeter player or net front presence as a trash collector.

In short, he has much work to do yet. Not bad for his first showing. He'll be one to watch over the next 3 seasons or so to gauge if he improves.

Right now I project him a solid 4th line RW'er with 3rd line energy guy potential.

I think you're underestimating his offensive skills. Given his development trajectory and reported attitude, I think he will improve his two-way game over the next several years. Same for being able to drive the net. By the way, there are very few guys in the league anymore who can drive the net with the puck successfully.
 

Doug Prishpreed

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May 1, 2013
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His vision and IQ May be his biggest hurdle but I can see him as an effective middle 6er with PP potential.

I don't see his IQ being a problem at all. I'm no expert but he seemed to think the game pretty well for a rookie. Sure, he made mistakes here and there, but they were no more egregious than anything McGinn or most of our other top-sixers have been committing. I really paid attention to him and felt like I could see the wheels turning in his mind. But then again, I'm used to watching the likes of Ennis and McGinn, who constantly make me wonder wtf they're thinking.
 

jc17

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Jun 14, 2013
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Even though small sample sizes are somewhat irrelevant I'll leave this here forwhat its worth.

1) In 4 games he had 8 High Danger Scoring Chances (right in front of the net). The best players in the league usually only average about 1 or slightly more per game.

This also doesnt even take into account ice-time, which he was getting a lot less of than top players.

2) He is one of the few Sabres to maintain a Corsi% over 50%.

3)He had a majority of zone starts in the d-zone and is one of two players on the sabres to have a majority d-zone starts and still positive corsi.
 

Matt Ress

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I don't see his IQ being a problem at all. I'm no expert but he seemed to think the game pretty well for a rookie. Sure, he made mistakes here and there, but they were no more egregious than anything McGinn or most of our other top-sixers have been committing. I really paid attention to him and felt like I could see the wheels turning in his mind. But then again, I'm used to watching the likes of Ennis and McGinn, who constantly make me wonder wtf they're thinking.

I guess I take mismanagement of pucks and give always into account but in general, he plays a pretty simple game. That's not a bad thing and it was his first call up as a pretty raw prospect. He's a big, strong, fast kid. He'll settle in a bit more in the next stint but he looked a bit lost at times and overwhelmed. He's played pucks to defenders and had that ugly give away. Frankly, he plays his best game when he's selfish and it's a power game but if he could use his teammates better, he'll be that much more effective. I really wanted him to pot one this time up but with that frame and drive, it won't be long.
 

BloFan4Life

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Jul 8, 2009
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I have been disappointed with the skill development of Bailey. He hasn't developed an ounce of skill down in Rochester. I actually feel like he has gone backwards.

Bailey is a big body that can skate well, but he lacks a ton of skill. Kind of looks awkward with the puck on his stick, which wasn't really the case before spending the last 6 months in Rochester. They need to keep him up and let him work on carrying the puck and becoming more comfortable with it on his stick. I feel like in Rochester they are trying to groom him into a 4th line winger. I want more than that for Bailey.
 

joshjull

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Aug 2, 2005
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I have been disappointed with the skill development of Bailey. He hasn't developed an ounce of skill down in Rochester. I actually feel like he has gone backwards.

Bailey is a big body that can skate well, but he lacks a ton of skill. Kind of looks awkward with the puck on his stick, which wasn't really the case before spending the last 6 months in Rochester. They need to keep him up and let him work on carrying the puck and becoming more comfortable with it on his stick. I feel like in Rochester they are trying to groom him into a 4th line winger. I want more than that for Bailey.

What? :laugh:
 

Dirty Dog

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I have been disappointed with the skill development of Bailey. He hasn't developed an ounce of skill down in Rochester. I actually feel like he has gone backwards.

Bailey is a big body that can skate well, but he lacks a ton of skill. Kind of looks awkward with the puck on his stick, which wasn't really the case before spending the last 6 months in Rochester. They need to keep him up and let him work on carrying the puck and becoming more comfortable with it on his stick. I feel like in Rochester they are trying to groom him into a 4th line winger. I want more than that for Bailey.

Bailey? Are you sure you have the right person
 

Paxon

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Jul 13, 2003
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I have been disappointed with the skill development of Bailey. He hasn't developed an ounce of skill down in Rochester. I actually feel like he has gone backwards.

Bailey is a big body that can skate well, but he lacks a ton of skill. Kind of looks awkward with the puck on his stick, which wasn't really the case before spending the last 6 months in Rochester. They need to keep him up and let him work on carrying the puck and becoming more comfortable with it on his stick. I feel like in Rochester they are trying to groom him into a 4th line winger. I want more than that for Bailey.

What kind of skill do you think an adult hockey player develops in a few months in the AHL?
 

Jacob582

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Oct 16, 2012
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I have been disappointed with the skill development of Bailey. He hasn't developed an ounce of skill down in Rochester. I actually feel like he has gone backwards.

Bailey is a big body that can skate well, but he lacks a ton of skill. Kind of looks awkward with the puck on his stick, which wasn't really the case before spending the last 6 months in Rochester. They need to keep him up and let him work on carrying the puck and becoming more comfortable with it on his stick. I feel like in Rochester they are trying to groom him into a 4th line winger. I want more than that for Bailey.

What?

He went from not being ready for the AHL, to getting called up and looking okay in the NHL this season.
 

Wisent42

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Jan 9, 2012
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I have been disappointed with the skill development of Bailey. He hasn't developed an ounce of skill down in Rochester. I actually feel like he has gone backwards.

Bailey is a big body that can skate well, but he lacks a ton of skill. Kind of looks awkward with the puck on his stick, which wasn't really the case before spending the last 6 months in Rochester. They need to keep him up and let him work on carrying the puck and becoming more comfortable with it on his stick. I feel like in Rochester they are trying to groom him into a 4th line winger. I want more than that for Bailey.

Justin Bailey is the guy wearing #56. Not #46. Not #26. #56.
 

Zip15

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Jun 3, 2009
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Bailey has 11-15-26 in his last 19 games. Seven multi-point games during that span, and held without a point in only three of the last 19 games.

But I sure hope the Amerks start working on his skill development and stop making him a 4th line grinder. :rolleyes:
 

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