Prospect Info: Justin Bailey (2013, 52nd) – '17-18: Rochester #95 (AHL)

[CaptPantalones]

Great pick. Loved watching him with the Royals when they would play here. And followed him in Kitchener. Bright, bright future

 

[Chainshot]

FC's Take:

41 JUSTIN BAILEY
POSITION: Right Wing
SHOOTS: Right
TEAM: Kitchener (OHL)
BORN: July 1, 1995
VITALS: 6’-3” / 185 Lbs
STATS: 57 GP 17 G 19 A 36 PTS 34 PIM
SCOUTING REPORT: Bailey is an athletic specimen with real NHL upside. He skates well with powerful stride that produces good amounts of speed, impressive first step acceleration and outstanding directional mobility. His speed helps him close in on opponents in a real hurry on the forecheck as well as getting to loose pucks. He generates chances off the rush and is able to stickhandle through traffic. He’s also able to surprise goaltenders with a quick shot, as he has a very good release and velocity on his wrister. Bailey displays good vision and makes accurate passes of varying distances, uses his strong frame and long reach in his puck protection as he glides to the net. He has his moments, but for the most part does not play with much physical consistency. He has a bad tendency to watch the puck on his stick as he moves through the neutral zone which can be devastating if defenders step up on him. Despite his frame, Bailey can be easily knocked of the puck as he is still a little spindly in the legs. This will undoubtedly improve with added strength and muscle mass. Simply put, Bailey is a player with some very impressive tool but will need time to put it all together.

NHL POTENTIAL: Top 9 Power Forward

 

[Woodhouse]

Pronman's analysis:

51. Justin Bailey, Right Wing, Kitchener (OHL)

Bailey is a high-upside forward with a multitude of tools, but he also carries some risk. He is a good skater, and he can generate a ton of speed, but he has a bit of an awkward stride, as he tends to not extend well through every step. He is a skilled player who can make above-average plays with the puck in stickhandling or passing, and he can flash flashes high-end ability with the puck. His shot is great, as it is both heavy and accurate. He has a decent frame, and is able to display a solid physical game in terms of his puck protection. He works hard on the ice, and he projects as a quality physical player, though he still has some bulking up to do. He is very raw, as injuries have hindered his ability to get a high number of repetitions. Whoever drafts Bailey inherits the risk of a player that has a fairly equal chance of being a top-six player or a bust.

 

[Chainshot]

Quotes from Brock's media day:

Justin Bailey - Forward - Kitchener Rangers
Received 5 votes (Highest was 9th)

"I think he had to make the adjustment from Midgets to the OHL this year so we haven't seen the true potential of him just yet. He will be good value as a second rounder when he develops as an 18 and 19 year old." - Anonymous

"Boy is he loaded with potential. He had a very good rookie season playing behind the Rangers big guns. Injuries early on may have hurt his status, but there’s no arguing his work ethic and he has shown signs of flashiness. He has an NHL caliber shot and his skating is based on hard work." - Anonymous

"Bailey has made me both excited and disappointed this season. His rookie season in the OHL was an up and down affair just as his consistency levels can be in games. He would make you fall in love with him one game after a power rush where he also shows skilled hands and/or a powerful shot; then grow frustrated with him the next few shifts as he seems content to just float around not engaging in the ongoing action. Bailey had a very strong beginning to 2013 in January and February but his play and consistency again dropped off towards the end of the year as he ended the regular season with just one assist in his final eight games. The NHL team looking at Bailey will need to realize it is likely top six role or bust as he just does not have the consistent work rate to maintain a bottom six checking role. With that said his upside is very high if he can put everything together." - Dan Stewart

 

[Chainshot]

Also from Brock's OHL List:

12. Justin Bailey - Forward - Kitchener Rangers
Bailey is a very raw prospect. This was his first OHL season and he went through some growing pains. But...he's got a very high ceiling, if the team that drafts him is willing to be patient. Bailey has size at 6'3, but is currently very lanky. He can be pushed off the puck too easily right now and needs to add strength to be a more effective player in traffic. But at his size, he's a terrific skater. He changes direction very well and has an extra gear. He's a bit of an awkward skater though, sort of wide strides similar to Wayne Simmonds when he played in the OHL. Offensively, his biggest weapon is his shot. He's got massive goal scoring potential at the next level. His snap and wrist shot are fantastic; both hard and accurate. But, I think there has to be some concern that he scored only 2 goals in his final 21 games (including playoffs). He looked gassed towards the end of the year, further proof that conditioning is an area of concern. The rest of his game is also a work in progress. For his size, he could stand to play more physical and engage in traffic more consistently. His two-way game is evolving and has potential because of his size and skating abilities. When he becomes the sum of his parts, Bailey could be a very good player and that's what has drawn the interest of scouts.

 

[Timbo Slice]

From what I hear, this is a great pick. Excited to see him fill out a bit. Another huge forward! I love it

 

[haseoke39]

How many guys drafted today have a better shot?

 

[BloFan4Life]

One of the best highlight tapes I have ever seen from a prospect. A dude with that size should not have those types of hands with that type of shot. I don't think drive will be a problem with so many former Sabres in his corner.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Is he comparable to Wayne Simmonds? The Sabres are missing a physical high end goal scoring RW. Stafford was supposed to be that but it never worked out. Like this pick just due to bloodlines/Bills connection alone.

 

[Paxon]

Gives us a second goal-scoring winger prospect behind Armia. Our system is short not only on natural goal-scorers but also on quality wingers in general.

If he puts it all together -- a reasonably big if -- we could be looking at a heck of a pick. Size, skating, hands, and shot are all there in sufficient amounts for him to become a good top 6, goal-scoring power forward.

As much as this should be ignored in evaluating the pick, you can't tell me it wouldn't be cool as hell to have a quality player on the Sabres with his background:

Source: http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectdetail.htm?dpid=81822

• Among OHL rookies in 2012-13, Bailey finished second with a plus-22 rating and tied for eighth with 17 goals (17-19--36) in 57 games.

• Bailey competed for the U.S. at the 2012 Under-18 Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament. He also was selected for the 2012 All-American Prospects Game, but was unable to participate due to injury.

• He spent the 2011-12 season with the Long Island Royals Midget Under-16 National Team, recording 21 goals and 13 assists in 22 regular-season games. Coached by Hockey Hall of Famer Pat LaFontaine, the Royals won the Under-16 Tier I National Championship in April 2012. Bailey posted three points (2-1--3) in the team’s 5-1 victory over the Dallas Stars Elite in the championship game.

• In 2010-11, Bailey competed for the Buffalo Regals. He had a goal and an assist in the USA Hockey New York District Tournament 16-Under Tier I championship against the Long Island Royals.

• He is the son of former Buffalo Bills linebacker Carlton Bailey.

• On expert guidance from his neighbors: “Growing up in Buffalo, we lived in the same condo as Matthew Barnaby, Michael Peca and Rob Ray. Barnaby helped me along the way with a lot of decision-making . . . It's good to have someone who has your back. He's experienced everything that I'm going to experience this year."

 

[Beerz]

Foligno and Bailey on a line together sounds like a lot to handle... Could be beastly.... Have Girgs centering them...

Drool worthy.

 

[Tapu Coco]

Really liking this pick, we need some goal-scorers in the pipeline. And you could see this coming too

 

[vcv]

What's not to like here? Kid grew up around Sabres players, literally. Mentored by guys like Barnaby, LaFontaine. Has the size, the hands, the heart and competitive spirit.

What a great story it woudl be to see him make the team (in a few years).

 

[Woodhouse]

USofH's Chris Peters wrote:

9. Justin Bailey (Williamsville, N.Y.) — RW — Kitchener Rangers (OHL)

A highly intriguing prospect, Bailey has great size and a good base of skills that could land him in the second round of the draft. In his first season of junior hockey after competing for the Long Island Royals AAA program, Bailey handled the transition extremely well, putting up 36 points in 57 games.

The former Michigan State commit had to shake off some early season injuries, but his game continually improved as the season went on. He has a long way to go in his development to reach his full potential, but the upside for him is really exciting. At 6-3, 186, he can add some strength and potential develop into a top-six style forward with good puck skills and an ability to get to the net.

Stats: 57 GP, 17-19–36, 34 PIM
Projected range: Mid-second to early-third round

 

[Woodhouse]

Bailey has been invited to the National Junior Evaluation Camp, Aug. 3-10, in Lake Placid.

 

[Reddawg]

Completely thrilled that we got Bailey, he's going to be a great player for us.

 

[Chainshot]

Love his comments in his media meet-and-greet on WGR - a very well spoken young man.

 

[IslesRock4]

Just want to chime in here and say that you guys will love him. Met him when he played on Long Island last year. I was kicking myself that the Islanders didn't have a 2nd rounder to take him, but I cracked a smile when he was drafted by his hometown team.

Today is also his birthday. Can't get much better than that for him.

 

[Paxon]

Love his comments in his media meet-and-greet on WGR - a very well spoken young man.

Yeah, I don't think there were many "uhh's", "uhmm's", or "for sure's"

 

[1972]

he shoots the puck like Ty Rattie, he may have on of the best releases in the draft. I am going to imagine that he will be another 2 years in KIT then at least one full year in Rochester, incredibly raw player. Kitchener had quite a few guys (Puempel, Rieder ect..) move on this year so he will have a great opportunity to produce offensively.

 

[Paxon]

Additional, highly important observation: I love that #95 number on him for some reason. He'd look great a "blue & gold" #95.

 

[Soapy3PO]

 

[Paxon]

There are capsules on some of our picks in the following post-draft article on American draftees: http://unitedstatesofhockey.com/201...t-a-look-at-the-top-american-prospects-taken/ (link credit: LegomyLeggio)

52. Justin Bailey — Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres went all-American in the second round and must have been especially pleased to see Bailey fall to 52. He’s a Buffalo kid, who has really come a long way in his development. He also lived with former Sabre Pat LaFontaine last year while playing for the Long Island Royals. In his first year in the OHL with Kitchener, Bailey showed glimpses of his immense potential. He is still very raw, but could round out into a productive forward. This is about perfect slot value for Bailey.

 

[Moskau]

As I said in another thread if his nickname isn't Metroid I will be very disappointed.

 

[Tachycineta]

I like that we got a mixture of different types of players in our draft. I like that he can skate, shoot and has offensive upside.

I hope he can get that "consistent work rate," physically mature and develop and improve his thinking for the game. And it's always neat to draft a hometown kid. He's probably 4 years away, in my opinion but the upside is definitely there and sometimes, the Sabres need to go for the risk/reward prospect.