Player Discussion: Josh Bailey

[kasper11]

I think everyone will agree that, going back to the last month of last season Bailey has been playing at a very high level. He is scoring (10 points in the final 14 games last year, 7 points in 7 games this year) and is responsible in his own zone. But, I wonder if this is the best we will see from him....

Don't get me wrong. I am really happy with his play. I think the way he is playing right now he will end up being a 60 point defensively responsible winger (yes, he is averaging a ppg now. But he and Nielsen are not going to shoot a combined 20% on the season). That is pretty solid and good value with the #9 pick. I think he is a key player going forward.

But, I watch him play, and I just feel like he could be so much more. I think he is the most talented forward on the team outside of JT, and I don't think it is that close. I watch some of the plays he makes, some of the passes in and through traffic, and it is clear that he has great vision and control of the puck. I think he could be an 80+ point player. If....

Watching him play I feel like he is an extremely conservative player. This isn't necessarily a negative thing. He isn't passive or lazy. I just think that he is always trying to make the "right" play, which he seems to think is the safe play. It is why he doesn't have a lot of hits, despite the fact that he is willing to use his size to battle in the corners for the puck. I feel like he doesn't want to risk being out of position (not a bad thing). It is also why he has only taken 14 shots in 7 games, 3 less than Matt Martin. I think unless he has a high quality chance he looks to hang onto the puck or make another pass rather than risk turning it over.

But, I think more aggression would actually help. I really think he is skilled enough to be a high-level scorer (he had a beautiful move last night).

So, my questions for the board are: 1) Do you agree with my assessment of Bailey; and 2) Do you think he can change and become more aggressive, especially with the puck?

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[Wedregast]

I'm not sure I'd agree with him having the potential for 80 points, but I think he can do better then 60 in a season. I do agree that after JT he is the most skilled on the team.

I'd imagine the more confidience he gets, the less he will play conservative and be more aggressive.

 

[19NYSports91]

He's not playing on a line with JT, he's playing in a two-way role right now and playing very well. Him and his linemates are creating a lot of offense and also are doing a good job in their own zone. He plays on the 2nd PP with Martin, Regin, PMB, and Amac, pretty terrible. He's getting better and better, and definitely feels a lot more comfortable as a winger than a center.

 

[redbull]

i'm saving my "i told you so" card because I feel like I've been defending Bailey since his rookie year, partly because I felt sorry for how he was introduced to the NHL.

Many of you thought Nino had it bad on the 4th line with Reasoner and Pandolfo.....Bailey had it far worse. His first year brought us Tavares. Comrie, Weight, Sim, Bergenheim, Comeau, Hilbert, Hunter, Campoli, Gervais, Park - and those were the good players. And Joey MacDonald and Yann Danis.

Back to Bailey. I'd agree he's the second best Islander forward. Grabner has his own unique set of skills and outstanding speed and Moulson can score and Nielsen is one of the most balanced, versatile, smart players in the league......but in terms of offensive upside/ability, it's Tavares, then Bailey.

I think Tavares has never had good linemates.

I think Bailey's had the worst linemates of any player from that 2008 draft and it's a real shame. His confidence has been tested a lot, shifted around various positions, with different linemates, almost all of them are out of hockey or fringe NHLers now.

Today, he looks like a completely new player. He made a comment in a pre-season interview where he said something like "the game gets slower for me every year" which I found interesting, because that's how he's playing. He looks like he has a lot of time out there. He has time to think about making the right play. Mario Lemieux was the best player I'd ever seen at creating time for himself. He looked like he was playing in slow motion, that he was able to hold on to the puck as long as he wanted. Most players rush the puck off their stick and chase it - Lemieux seemed to hold on to the puck forever.

Bailey's not Lemieux, using the extreme example to make a point, for anyone who remembers Mario in his prime. Remarkable.

His point totals will vary significantly depending on ice-time and linemates. He should be on the 1st PP unit instead of Okposo but Cappy disagrees.

If he plays a season with Tavares, he's got 80 point potential (on the high side but I think JT has 100pt potential!) but aside from points, Bailey's a very good player in all zones. He's become really good at board play and winning puck battles, cycling the puck - it's not an accident that Bouchard is playing his best hockey with Fransie and Bailey.

Last point. Strome. I had made the point in the off-season that Strome's best comparison was Bailey. Many disagreed, but Strome brings the exact same game as Bailey. Not overly big or strong or fast, excellent passer, deceptively good shot, smart decisions with the puck and excellent offensive instincts.

Strome and Nelson, once he gets back in the lineup, if he's not sent to BP today to play some weekend games, are two players that will definitely help the top six next year.

 

[Stercrazy]

I think his production will increase. Not saying he's going to be breaking records or anything but I have notice his play also. I commented the other night against But. He's playing smart solid hockey now.

 

[steveat]

I think Strome is more of a skating puck posession type player and Bails is more of a lateral and standing puck posession type player.

Strome also has a bit more creativity, however, I think Bails has quicker though process for the inforseen (quick reaction).

The only problem I ever had with Bailey was his inconsistency. It never had anything to do with his talent. I could see how good he was with his flashes of brilliance...but they were just that "flashes".

I see the same thing now with Okposo...he's just inconsistent.good player, but can't get his fat butt in gear for the start of every season so far. There is something else to it..I feel it...especially when he goes to a sports shrink. Something outside of hockey must be affecting his play.

 

[blinkman360]

I think Strome is more of a skating puck posession type player and Bails is more of a lateral and standing puck posession type player.

Strome also has a bit more creativity, however, I think Bails has quicker though process for the inforseen (quick reaction).

The only problem I ever had with Bailey was his inconsistency. It never had anything to do with his talent. I could see how good he was with his flashes of brilliance...but they were just that "flashes".

I see the same thing now with Okposo...he's just inconsistent.good player, but can't get his fat butt in gear for the start of every season so far. There is something else to it..I feel it...especially when he goes to a sports shrink. Something outside of hockey must be affecting his play.

I know Kyle had a rough first couple of games, but he does have 6 points so far in 7 games. He's already on pace to crush his career high in points, and this doesn't even take into account the fact that he plays his best hockey in the second half. I agree that I expect him to look better(especially after the way he played during the postseason), but I'd have a hard time calling this a slow start. Most people would have signed up for 70 points from KO before the season started(which is his current pace).

 

[ktrio730]

One always has to remember, Bailey is 24 years old. He was rushed to the NHL, and could have been broken by that. If the Isles had drafted Bailey last year for example, he probably would have spent 3 years in the minors before getting called up. It took awhile, but he's getting there.

I agree with redbull that with Bailey, its always been about consistency. I remember two years ago he started the season like a bat out of hell, looked like a mini-Tavares out there for a few weeks. Then it fell apart. Almost all young players have that problem though, and I've always expected that as he enters his prime, we will get more of the good Bailey than the invisible Bailey.

There is a reason that second line has been killing it 2nd half of last year and so far this year. Many people thought it was KO, and obviously he was great at that time too, but I would argue Bailey was a bigger reason that line has created so much possession and flow. He is one of the most effective cycling and possession players we have, and as long as he can be consistent and even improve over the next few months/years, he is imo our 2nd most important forward behind JT we have on the team right now, and will be top 3 with JT, Strome, and himself for the foreseeable future.

 

[Renbarg]

Bailey's problem has, and always will be, his desire to make the sexy play rather than the simple play.

He has all the talent in the world, but sometimes I almost rather he act like a plug and throw the puck on net when he has a chance, or make the simple pass rather than the behind the back through someone's legs pass. Its sexy as hell when it works but I think he'll have more success (production wise) making the simple play. So in this respect I disagree with the OP, although he often does pass up the shot, its not because he's being conservative, its because he's trying to make the sexy play.

Bailey is at his very best when he passes less. He's shooting a little bit more this year again to start (despite the stats, as he's missed the net a lot). I think that's why he works so well with Nielsen, he knows he has to be the shooter on that line and not the playmaker.

He's supremely talented, I'm glad they move him off of center, and I'm looking for an absolutely huge year from him (more than 50 points).

 

[RMimagery]

This is not the best we'll see. Bailey has been steadily improving each year, with ups and downs but it's obvious he's learning.

He won't be an all star, but he will be an above avg 2nd liner who's valuable in the playoffs.

Glad he's finally arrived.

 

[PK Cronin]

Bailey's problem has, and always will be, his desire to make the sexy play rather than the simple play.

He has all the talent in the world, but sometimes I almost rather he act like a plug and throw the puck on net when he has a chance, or make the simple pass rather than the behind the back through someone's legs pass. Its sexy as hell when it works but I think he'll have more success (production wise) making the simple play. So in this respect I disagree with the OP, although he often does pass up the shot, its not because he's being conservative, its because he's trying to make the sexy play.

Bailey is at his very best when he passes less. He's shooting a little bit more this year again to start (despite the stats, as he's missed the net a lot). I think that's why he works so well with Nielsen, he knows he has to be the shooter on that line and not the playmaker.

He's supremely talented, I'm glad they move him off of center, and I'm looking for an absolutely huge year from him (more than 50 points).

I disagree about him looking for the 'sexy' play. He's just looking to dish it for easy goals. I don't know if I'd consider that sexy.

Even last night, he makes two great moves at the blue line/high slot area and immediately looked for a pass instead of shooting. It's just the type of player he is.



I've been on the Bailey bandwagon since he got here. I'm a huge fan of his and always thought he was used poorly and his great play was overlooked because he wasn't producing points. His ability to read the play is probably better than Tavares defensively coming out of the offensive zone. His vision is really ridiculous, but he needs to be with people who want to play the puck control game and not trying to score on the rush all the time. We're seeing him become more confident and realize he can dictate play in the offensive zone. It's really great to see. I don't think he needs to shoot more, but take the opportunities he is given more.

We'll see him get better, especially with the arrival of a Strome.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Okposo's been awful. I really hate his game right now.

Bailey's improvement has been a real boon to the team. I don't see him becoming a 80 point player. It's not 1993 anymore. Only a handful of players in the league can produce 80+ points.

 

[19 in a row]

Lovin' the love for bailey here after he was much maligned in years past (most of the blame going to his development rather than his skills) and understandably left many isles fans disputing his worth.. He has been my fav player on this team since he came up and I always hoped that he would string those flashes together and become consistent... hopefully this is not just a hot streak and he does not revert back to inconsistency but gotta like what you see from this kid now and he gives us another dimension to complement this team chemistry. Don't forget he was hurt at the beginning of last year which may have explained that slow start once he did come back. Since then he looks like he is maturing into a bonifide solid winger with skills.

 

[boredmale]

I would love to see the Islanders try Bailey with Tavares, I think he might be a good fit

 

[PWJunior]

This is not the best we'll see. Bailey has been steadily improving each year, with ups and downs but it's obvious he's learning.

He won't be an all star, but he will be an above avg 2nd liner who's valuable in the playoffs.

Glad he's finally arrived.

Bailey's versatility makes him invaluable. He has experience playing all the forward positions and has a well rounded game which allows him to slot anywhere in the lineup. He does look best on the wing, but I think he could still do well if he had to play the pivot again. He knows he belongs now and his confidence is soaring, he's proven he's a high character kid with everything that he's had to go through. I'm very confident that he's finally turned the corner. His contract could compare very favorably with how JT's is viewed by pretty much everyone... highway robbery.

 

[startainfection*]

I would love to see the Islanders try Bailey with Tavares, I think he might be a good fit

i think they are trying to spread out the scoring

 

[RMimagery]

Agree PWJ. He looks like he can play anywhere now. C, W , PP, PK and do well. Want him out there in the final minute whether up or down by a goal.

 

[LongIslandCircus]

I've been a supporter all along and am thrilled to see him excelling the way he has. Redbull's assessment is bang on, definitely our all-round 2nd best forward.

Rewind to a couple seasons ago when Tavares was injured and this kid carried the team on his back for about 5 games. Sure he regressed after JT's return, but when put in a "go-to-guy" role, he responded. His whole career has been slotted in the middle of our line-up, most times with checkers carrying a "don't F up" mentality. I'd absolutely love for the coaching staff to perminantly slot this kid on the first line and literally let him run with it. Those reserved tendancies he displays will shortly dissapear and we could see something special from him.

Would've LOVED to see him finish off that dirty play last night.

 

[Renbarg]

I disagree about him looking for the 'sexy' play. He's just looking to dish it for easy goals. I don't know if I'd consider that sexy.

Even last night, he makes two great moves at the blue line/high slot area and immediately looked for a pass instead of shooting. It's just the type of player he is.



I've been on the Bailey bandwagon since he got here. I'm a huge fan of his and always thought he was used poorly and his great play was overlooked because he wasn't producing points. His ability to read the play is probably better than Tavares defensively coming out of the offensive zone. His vision is really ridiculous, but he needs to be with people who want to play the puck control game and not trying to score on the rush all the time. We're seeing him become more confident and realize he can dictate play in the offensive zone. It's really great to see. I don't think he needs to shoot more, but take the opportunities he is given more.

We'll see him get better, especially with the arrival of a Strome.

Well ya, that's the sexy play. He rather dish it off for the chance to get a nice backdoor empty net, rather than try to sneak through the goalie. That move last night on the blueline was an improvement, because although he may have thought pass, Bailey of yesteryear, would have passed and not tried to shoot it, like Bailey yesterday.

 

[glubrat]

Okposo's been awful. I really hate his game right now.

Okposo has 6 points in 7 games this season. Looks to be playing with toughness.

You can "hate his game" right now, but the numbers don't lie.

 

[On Edge]

Smart hockey player. Strong skater. Very good hockey sense. Good in d-zone. Great shot. Very good vision. Good on PK. Good on PP. Getting stronger on skates and much more physical...and only 24.

You can just see him putting it all together. I have no idea if he will be a 60 point guy or not. Does not matter - his all around game and versatility makes him very valuable. If Bailey ever gets that consistent confidence in his game, watch out.

 

[redbull]

Okposo has 6 points in 7 games this season. Looks to be playing with toughness.

You can "hate his game" right now, but the numbers don't lie.

numbers do lie.

okposo has good stats because he's playing with Tavares.

Last year, down the stretch Okposo was outstanding, but didn't have great stats. (with Nielsen-Bailey). Boyes and Moulson had good stats but were god-awful all season.

This year, Okposo is working really hard and winning puck battles but his offensive game is not so good. He's fighting the puck, not making any smart/quick passes, fumbles the puck in his feet a lot, can't take a pass, has the slowest release in sports (except for the PP one-timer that he needs to do more often).

He's played well in flashes, cycles the puck well, but overall, his game hasn't been that great.

But he'll have good stats if he remains on the top line. That's inevitable.

Smart hockey player. Strong skater. Very good hockey sense. Good in d-zone. Great shot. Very good vision. Good ok PK. Good on PP. Getting stronger on skates and much more physical...and only 24.

You can just see him putting it all together. I have no idea if he will be a 60 point guy or not. Does not matter - his all around game and versatility makes him very valuable. If Bailey ever gets that consistent confidence in his game, watch out.

good post. concise.

 

[Metnut]

I'm really glad we locked him up long-term. It would've been heartbreaking to go through all of his growing pains only to see him excel with another team.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

numbers do lie.

okposo has good stats because he's playing with Tavares.

This. He's been a turnover machine, scuttled countless rushes by fumbling the puck or making an errant pass, and gets winded faster than any other player on the ice. He's had spurts of decent play, but overall has looked pretty poor to these eyes.

 

[Words Of Wisdom]

I love the improvements in Bailey's game. He's a big asset to the team and arguably the second most skilled player on the team, next to Tavares.

Bailey is good in his own zone, very smart player. His two way game is important and would be valuable to any team.
He's got hands that can make plays happen. He really is improving and it's exciting to watch.

Bailey will most likely be a 55-70 point scorer. I don't see him having 80.. That's a bit too high, but he will be an above average and one of the top 2nd line centers in the game.