Value of: John Tavares at 56 million over 4 years. Which teams can afford that?

[damicius]

I mean the Rangers could. But they shouldn't.

they could-they shouldn't-they will

because its Rangers

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

they could-they shouldn't-they will

because its Rangers

Oh.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Habs can easily do that.
With the cap going to 80 mil, habs will have 17 mil in capspace with a roster of 20 players. Only Danault needing to be-resigned. So we would still have 3 mil left.

Then guys like Pacioretty, Schlemko, Benn likely traded, we will have even more capspace

Not sure why Mtl cap situation is that great.
2 guys get 18.3 CP-SW
7 guys get 33 (total 51.3$ or 64% of 80 mil cap on 9 guys) JD, MP, AG, AS, BG, KA, JP

You have 28 mil$ remaining for 14 players...

Only 2 players on elc maybe 3 if 3rd oa stays.

Better deal some high salaries first.

 

[SprDaVE]

Tavares wouldn't. He can make upwards of 70 million dollars of guaranteed money from a team.

Why even risk it?

 

[Ulysses31]

That would be a fun trend, players going for short term big money deals


Take a team..Leafs for example with loads of cap space..especially if they bridge Nylander . Say they fail at every UFA they target..would be fun if Vander for example negogiated a 11-12m contract for one year.

 

[Ulysses31]

Tavares wouldn't. He can make upwards of 70 million dollars of guaranteed money from a team.

Why even risk it?

Why not tho? Hes a millionaire already...could make 30%-50% more if he is successful and comes out healthy after the 4 years.

 

[SprDaVE]

Why not tho? Hes a millionaire already...could make 30%-50% more if he is successful and comes out healthy after the 4 years.

I have no idea what his intentions are but generally, a player of his calibre doesn't let go of term for a higher short-term payout. The risk of a big injury can happen to anyone and that can easily affect his future contract if he signs for a max short-term deal.

Someone will give him 7 years and very likely over 70 million dollars in that term. You'd be crazy not to take this deal versus less term.

 

[CupInSIX]

How crazy would it be for Vegas to trade for Karlsson and sign Tavares on the same day...

 

[AfroThunder396]

New Jersey can afford this, plus they can offer him being Taylor Hall's center for the next 7 years.

 

[CupInSIX]

New Jersey can afford this, plus they can offer him being Taylor Hall's center for the next 7 years.

How can they do that when he's a UFA in 3?

 

[Riseonfire]

I dont think the Canucks are remotely close to contending atleast on paper. Tavares should go to Vegas, but think teams like TOR, BUF, CAR, CBJ, all have varying degrees of success but their core is fairly young with a lot of upside.

What would the point be tho? You are in the beginning of a rebuild and just had 2 of your best players retire. 2-3 years of the contract would be completely wasted.

.....................what? Must be some heavy 'varying' there.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Pretty much any team that can afford to give him 12 mil per for 7 years can afford 14 for 4 years. Sharks can easily do that just like so many others can. It's not going to disqualify anyone really from the Tavares conversation especially when it's realized that Tavares isn't going to sign such a deal. He'll take 7 years, 91 million or even 84 million over 7 years compared to a 4 year, 56 mil deal.

 

[DomBarr]

True, but you aren’t factoring in that 2nd contract. Let’s go by you numbers.

4*14 = 56 million. Tavares becomes a UFA at 31.

7*11.5=80 million. Tavares becomes a UFA at 34.

80-56 = 24 million.

My guess is that 31 year old Tavares (who would still be in his prime) would get MUCH more money and term than a past-his-prime 34 year old Tavares......so much to the point that it would easily exceed 24 million.

End result? Tavares gets paid like a gangsta AND can sign with a contender on a long term contract as a 31 year old, as he goes after his life long dream of winning a cup. He can literally have his cake and eat it to.

You are missing a couple of factors in your proposal
1) You did not risk adjust the difference which makes a 7 yr 80 M contract more valuable than a 4 yr $56 M plus X times X for a second contract. In one he is Guaranteed $80 M in the other he is only Guaranteed $56 M. The second contract has no value as it is only available if he is able to play what if he suffers a career ending injury or if his skills decline or or or...
2) Why would he defer going to a contender or near contender to sign with a current non-playoff/rebuilding team who will most likely only just becoming a playoff contender when the 4 yr contract expires. If he leaves the islanders for a 4 yr contract that team will be a contender or on the cusp and is perceived as being way closer to winning a cup than them not to sign with a team that is a minimum 3 to 4 years away from contending for the playoffs.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

Tavares wouldn't. He can make upwards of 70 million dollars of guaranteed money from a team.

Why even risk it?

Simple: because he could make WAY more money.

I'm not saying this 4 year/$56M contract is likely. And I don't know JT's mind - or Erik Karlsson's (same scenario could be applied to him). But from a purely financial POV, this is really easy. 4 x $14M

Assuming he leaves NYI...

Scenario #1: Sign 7 years for $10M per = $70M guaranteed. 34 years old when he's done (very possible that it's obvious he's past his prime).

Scenario #2: Sign 4 years x $14M per = $56M guaranteed. 31 years (likely still very much in prime).

Yes, Scenario #1 has $14M difference in earnings between the two, but his next contract is likely much shorter and is much more likely to pay him as someone whose performance is expected to decline. In today's market, it might be the equivalent of 4 years x $7M (so $28M).

In Scenario #2, he earns less up front. But he could set himself up for a max length contract with top dollar for its duration. In today's terms, the equivalent might be 7 years x $9M (so $63M).

Scenario #1 might earn him $108M. Scenario #2 might earn him $119M. And that ignores the impact of negotiation timing, inflation, etc. Heck, if he bets on himself that he's still going to be every bit the dynamic player he is now at 31, the difference could be even more.

We need to stop thinking about people worth tens of millions of dollars in such risk-averse, pedestrian terms. Players like JT or EK are set for life already financially - and are guaranteed to see offers worth tens of millions over the next year. Obviously there's a ton of personal math that weighs heavily on all of this. But if we're evaluating things purely from a personal finance POV, if you already know you can take care of a few lifetime's worth of material wants for yourself and the people closest to you, why not bet on yourself to see if you can go a little further?

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

I'm not sure but isn't there a max salary of around 13m per?

Max is 20% of cap ceiling.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

I don't think any team offers that, and Tavares doesn't strike me as a guy whose signing for the highest AAV offered.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Toronto could have done this if they didn't screw themselves by signing Marleau.

Marleau had a good season, and a great playoffs.

Nothing wrong with the signing. He replaces JVR

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Buffalo should do it. Sign Tavares, trade ROR + for goaltending (I have no idea who. Schneider maybe?).

Tavares, Eichel, Dahlin, Risto, Mittlestat, etc. That would be a damn impressive turn around.

 

[threeVo]

.....................what? Must be some heavy 'varying' there.

All have a young core setup. Hence the varying degrees of success. Buffalo has a top 1C and are about to add a 1D prospect this year.

 

[bernmeister]

Max is 20% of cap ceiling.

Thanks to you also
pls see my post #46

 

[The Alien]

You should have taken a closer look at the situation, as Colorado does have quite a bit of flexibility coming up and a tremendous amount of available cap space currently. I don't believe that Colorado will pursue Tavares, as the organization seems obsessed with adding speed and quickness, above and beyond what it already has in place.

Fair enough, I added that caveat as I was just idly wondering.

 

[The Alien]

Colorado is among the lowest salaried teams and below the Cap Floor. They can easily absorb this contract and still be well under the cap limits.

Just don’t believe Taveres would consider joining the AVs to be a 2C behind Mackinnon. Another consideration is the AVs are still another 2-3 years away from contending. Not sure if he would want to be part of a up and coming team, he could just stay with the NYI.

Yeah, this would be somewhat predicated on the idea he wants out of NYI for whatever reason. I won't speculate there, just an interesting thought. Short-term contracts would be fun.

 

[BLONG7]

He will not sign a 4 yr deal................he will be getting 7-8 yrs and the cap hit will be around 11M

 

[Tripod]

True, but you aren’t factoring in that 2nd contract. Let’s go by you numbers.

4*14 = 56 million. Tavares becomes a UFA at 31.

7*11.5=80 million. Tavares becomes a UFA at 34.

80-56 = 24 million.

My guess is that 31 year old Tavares (who would still be in his prime) would get MUCH more money and term than a past-his-prime 34 year old Tavares......so much to the point that it would easily exceed 24 million.

End result? Tavares gets paid like a gangsta AND can sign with a contender on a long term contract as a 31 year old, as he goes after his life long dream of winning a cup. He can literally have his cake and eat it to.

Except he wastes him prime years playing for Vancouver....

 

[sabrebuild]

Players like tavares would much rather sign 80M over 7 years than signing a 4 years contract at 56M, you will say its much more money per year.

but 24M is a HELL lot of money you gamble, your game can regress, you can get an career ending injury.

80x7 > 56x4 AINEC

To be fair when the money gets that big it becomes relatively meaningless for a person to have any life change between the figures.

However, do you really think Tavares at 31, 4 years out with commensurate cap rising, would have a hard time getting a long term deal at 8 million a year? I don’t, I’d say that deal is a lock, even with a year or two of subpar play mixed in.

Heck, if he took that deal, thereby bumping the market for other stars, by the time his new deal came up 8 million might be reasonable top 6 money for the league. Buffalo, Vancouver and Edmonton all just signed Okposo, lucic and Louis to 6 mill a year deals.

Yes a career ending injury could happen, but it’s pretty rare.

Now if he could really max out his signing bonuses early, he could get maybe 45 million in the first two years of the 4 year deal, the interest alone on those lump payments might make up the difference in total payout.

No team is doing it tho. Too afraid to jack up the cap, and only useful if you have a lot of cheap contracts to build team depth.