Value of: John Tavares at 56 million over 4 years. Which teams can afford that?

[Legend123]

huh? Well tell me where im wrong than?

your logic is piss poor. You are just assuming a player like Tavares isnt confident enough to think he will still be good in 4 years time. In 4 years, he will just be 32 as opposed to 35-36 if he agrees to a 7 to 8 year long contract. It would be much easier to sign another long term extension at 32 then at 36 where he would most likely have already regressed heavily and looking for 1 year contracts. At 32, he can easily get another long term and expensive contract. Star players usually dont regress at 32. At 36 its much more often.
Also, in 4 years time, the market for players like him, combined with the increasing cap, will likely give him thw chance to sign at a very high salary. So, even though he does leave out $24M, he can easily line that up at 32 years old in around 2 years. He will easily make much more money going the short route.
Money upfront is MUUUCH more incentivizing than money relatively thinly spread out over 8 years.

 

[member 290103]

He's not worth that. The guy is an excellent player, but he's not Connor McDavid. He's only been a point a game player twice in the nine years he's been in the NHL. He's overrated here. Incredibly so.

 

[Ciao]

Oh boy, the Canucks sure have the rest of the league over a barrel! I really, really, really hope they do this!

Happily, that would also prevent the Leafs from overpaying for Tavares!

 

[zar]

Tavares isn’t signing for less than 6 years.

If someone steps up and offered him $56m over 4 years ($14m AAV), you bet your ass he'd sign that. $13m signing bonus each year and $1m in salary with a NMC. Thing is I doubt any team would offer that structure/term of a contract to a player like Tavares, they are smarter to lock him in longer and lower the AAV.

What's he going to get now? $10.5AAV x 7 = $73.5M.

$73.5 - $56m = $17.5m... when his 4 year contract expires he is only 31. so he signs another 5 year contract for say $8m/year (probably low) at least.

Scenario #1
7 x 10.5 = $73.5M

Scenario #2
4 x 14 = $56M
the next 3 years at $8M = $24
$56 + $24 = $80M

I am fully aware that Tavares risks injury and thus could potentially leave $17.5M on the table but the odds favor taking that risk.

The more likely reason he might turn down a short term overpriced contract is it could cripple the team he goes to and prevent them from building a competitive team. However, if he takes scenario #2, after the first contract expires he can afford to give a discount (ignoring NHLPA wrath) and go to almost any team he chooses - teams would make moves to make it happen.

Anyways, that's my view but like I said it would never be offered.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I just don't see it practical for him to want a short term deal. I'm sure the money is appealing but contract length bring security of lifestyle in regards to possibility of injury, familiarity of location, etc. I'm sure, almost positive if security is something that he is interested in that he would get any type of NTC or NMC he wants at any length.

Sure he could maybe and I mean maybe capitalize on more money but then there isn't much security and also it would cripple the team quite a bit as opposed to a more likely contract.

 

[The Alien]

If someone steps up and offered him $56m over 4 years ($14m AAV), you bet your ass he'd sign that. $13m signing bonus each year and $1m in salary with a NMC. Thing is I doubt any team would offer that structure/term of a contract to a player like Tavares, they are smarter to lock him in longer and lower the AAV.

What's he going to get now? $10.5AAV x 7 = $73.5M.

$73.5 - $56m = $17.5m... when his 4 year contract expires he is only 31. so he signs another 5 year contract for say $8m/year (probably low) at least.

Scenario #1
7 x 10.5 = $73.5M

Scenario #2
4 x 14 = $56M
the next 3 years at $8M = $24
$56 + $24 = $80M

I am fully aware that Tavares risks injury and thus could potentially leave $17.5M on the table but the odds favor taking that risk.

The more likely reason he might turn down a short term overpriced contract is it could cripple the team he goes to and prevent them from building a competitive team. However, if he takes scenario #2, after the first contract expires he can afford to give a discount (ignoring NHLPA wrath) and go to almost any team he chooses - teams would make moves to make it happen.

Anyways, that's my view but like I said it would never be offered.

I would think that it would at least be something Tavares would strongly consider.

The thing about Vancouver is, we would have a bunch of guys we are hoping will be outperforming their ELCs or bridges. That cap savings might make overpaying for Tavares worth it. Heck, it worked very well with Sundin.

Colorado, for example, doesn't have quite the same cap flexibility (I think, without looking it up) long term because they will have to pay for Barrie and Landy and MacKinnon sooner than the Canucks will have to pay Boeser and Petterson and whoever.

 

[captainpaxil]

Philly could offer him that deal and fit under the cap and thyeyre a playoff team as is.

 

[almostawake]

I mean, the real question is if he can really find a team desperate enough to offer him 14M AAV for 4 years, why wouldn't he be able to get them to push to 7 at a similar AAV.

I think people grossly overestimate how long the typical GM figures he'll last. If a GM can save his job and land himself a second contract by signing Tavares, even at a ridiculous rate, why wouldn't he?

 

[Horse McHindu]

What would the point be tho? You are in the beginning of a rebuild and just had 2 of your best players retire. 2-3 years of the contract would be completely wasted.

The point would be to get the kids within our system some valuable playoff experience, and atleast give the kids some hope that they could realistically make the playoffs. Having a player like Tavares within the system would also be a great learning experience for the kids.

Cap wise, a lot of our upcoming core won’t need to be reupped for quite some time (outside of Boeser), and so the Tavares contract wouldn’t lead to complications over a 4 year span (I haven’t checked the specifics, but I don’t think it will be a problem).

 

[f1nn]

I love how people know JTs preferences and where he will/won't play and what goes through his head.

He'll sign for 7 years, period. 8 if he stays with the Isles

LOL please tell me this was meant to be a joke? If so, well done

 

[Weltschmerz]

I'm not sure but isn't there a max salary of around 13m per?

20% of teams cap, so no the max would be 15kk.

 

[shortfuze]

Players like tavares would much rather sign 80M over 7 years than signing a 4 years contract at 56M, you will say its much more money per year.

but 24M is a HELL lot of money you gamble, your game can regress, you can get an career ending injury.

80x7 > 56x4 AINEC

Is there a link to any player that was ever offered 4 years 56 million?

 

[SML2]

So basically, play house with the Canucks and waste 4 years of his prime while he waits for a contending team to come along. Why wouldn't he just stay with the Isles if he wants to not win the cup for the next 4 years? Some guys are very easy to read. They are about the name on the back of the sweater. Tavares is a little different. I'm not an isles fan and I don't know the guy but I think if there is a guy out there who is going to leave money on the table for the sake of loyalty or to get in a winning situation, he kinda fits that bill. To turn his back on the Isles for numbers may not happen here.

 

[bluedevil58]

Carolina can. Question is does having the #2 overall pick and the chance to play with an impact now young forward along with Aho entice him?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

No way he only signs for 4 years. He's getting 7 or more

 

[Horse McHindu]

Carolina can. Question is does having the #2 overall pick and the chance to play with an impact now young forward along with Aho entice him?

I say it would. Aho-Tavares-Svechnikov would likely be killer right from the get go.

 

[Dbrownss]

Carolina can. Question is does having the #2 overall pick and the chance to play with an impact now young forward along with Aho entice him?

Probably not. Svechnikov isnt a McDavid level prospect. If he's leaving NY, my guess is he wants to go to a contender.

 

[Oddbob]

Tavares both isn't worth 14 per season and won't get anywhere close to that, and I like Tavares a lot!

 

[Patagonia]

I would think that it would at least be something Tavares would strongly consider.

The thing about Vancouver is, we would have a bunch of guys we are hoping will be outperforming their ELCs or bridges. That cap savings might make overpaying for Tavares worth it. Heck, it worked very well with Sundin.

Colorado, for example, doesn't have quite the same cap flexibility (I think, without looking it up) long term because they will have to pay for Barrie and Landy and MacKinnon sooner than the Canucks will have to pay Boeser and Petterson and whoever.

Colorado is among the lowest salaried teams and below the Cap Floor. They can easily absorb this contract and still be well under the cap limits.

Just don’t believe Taveres would consider joining the AVs to be a 2C behind Mackinnon. Another consideration is the AVs are still another 2-3 years away from contending. Not sure if he would want to be part of a up and coming team, he could just stay with the NYI.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I mean the Rangers could. But they shouldn't.

 

[bernmeister]

20% of teams cap, so no the max would be 15kk.

Thanks
15 is the new 13.

 

[blankall]

When was the last time a superstar FA took some weird bridge deal? He'll sign until she 38ish.

He'll also sign with a contender. Not only does this deal involve several unlikely fantasies to get him into Vancouver, but is it really in their best interest? This looks like it makes them a mediocre team, when they should be rebuilding. Certainly they don't look significantly better than the the current Islanders.

 

[ToneDog]

Paying $14M per year to one player is not the recipe for putting together a winning team and Tavares says he wants to win.

 

[Goulet17]

I would think that it would at least be something Tavares would strongly consider.

The thing about Vancouver is, we would have a bunch of guys we are hoping will be outperforming their ELCs or bridges. That cap savings might make overpaying for Tavares worth it. Heck, it worked very well with Sundin.

Colorado, for example, doesn't have quite the same cap flexibility (I think, without looking it up) long term because they will have to pay for Barrie and Landy and MacKinnon sooner than the Canucks will have to pay Boeser and Petterson and whoever.

You should have taken a closer look at the situation, as Colorado does have quite a bit of flexibility coming up and a tremendous amount of available cap space currently. I don't believe that Colorado will pursue Tavares, as the organization seems obsessed with adding speed and quickness, above and beyond what it already has in place.

 

[D3vilsH0ck3y]

Philly could offer him that deal and fit under the cap and thyeyre a playoff team as is.

Ditto New Jersey, he wouldn’t even have to move his family.