Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

[RandyHolt]

Not necessarily. When healthy it was usually something like this:

Barber/LOB in the "Oshie" spot in front of the net for deflections and dirty goals
Boyd in the "Backstrom" spot along the boards
Bourque and Ness alternating at the points, both LH shots
Constant rotating door of the 5th guy who kind of played down low and also gave a net front presence.

Needless to say their PP was atrocious.

When Hobbs was out there as the RH sot they'd set him up for some one-timers but not at the "Ovie" spot

You know better than anyone here. Are there any RH shots on D in Hershey that could man the top of our umbrella here in DC? I think Carlson is out of here. Regardless, BMac has to prepare for it.

I wonder if Jerabek is likely to return. His fall from grace may have been more about Djoos having his batteries recharged. I don't recall any glaring bad turnover or game from JJ. Perhaps someone else is expected to make the jump up this year (Hobbs/Lucas/Jonas), but I'd rather a vet be our 7. I am thinking JJ as our 7.

Thanks again

 

[hb12xchamps]

You know better than anyone here. Are there any RH shots on D in Hershey that could man the top of our umbrella here in DC? I think Carlson is out of here. Regardless, BMac has to prepare for it.

I wonder if Jerabek is likely to return. His fall from grace may have been more about Djoos having his batteries recharged. I don't recall any glaring bad turnover or game from JJ. Perhaps someone else is expected to make the jump up this year (Hobbs/Lucas/Jonas), but I'd rather a vet be our 7. I am thinking JJ as our 7.

Thanks again

If Carlson leaves we're screwed on the PP. The two RH shot offensive D in Hershey are Hobbs and Williams and both need more time in the AHL to develop. Out of all of the young D, I'd say Jonas or LuJo are the two that could press for a spot on the Caps with an outside shot of Lewington. Lewington and Sieg are both stay at home type guys so if Orpik get's moved I could see them having a shot at making the roster. I actually like Lewington a lot. His offensive game is pretty much non existent, but he's great on D, on the PK and sticks up for his guys. He's "old school" for sure and comes from the same cloth as Orpik

 

[BobRouse]

Wait...isn’t Bowey a RH shot???

Man getting old sucks

 

[Portable Mink]

This makes me feel a bit better.
I honestly dont see him leaving for 7x10 (70m) over 8x8.5 (68m).

 

[BobRouse]

The question is if the Caps are even willing to go 8x8

We will see.

But even then a team will have to offer him like 7x9.25 or so. I wonder if a team is willing to give him more than Subban basically

 

[RandyHolt]

....

I actually like Lewington a lot. His offensive game is pretty much non existent, but he's great on D, on the PK and sticks up for his guys. He's "old school" for sure and comes from the same cloth as Orpik

I like Lew too. WE are cut from the same cloth lol. I actually thought he had a chance a year ago. Maybe he will get his best chance when the team figures out it misses an Orpik in the lineup.

What a playoffs from Orpik. He single handed took out Vanek within the first few games after an epic battle. I am wondering who took out Karlsson. He rattled quite a few players proper. I want to see his playoff hit comp. It was a thing a beauty for a 23 year old, let alone a 38 year old. At least until he got boarded. He may have also backed off on Vegas since we didn't really need to pound them to win. We were in a different class.

Oh, and he lost a finger and no one even noticed.

 

[BobRouse]

The more I think about it the more I feel we’d be better off investing money in other places. Lock a younger player like Wilson up long term as he has more upside. Sign Kempny and find an outside RD

It’s basically we sign Carlson or we sign pretty much everyone else.

Explore a trade for Faulk using Grubauer+

 

[kicksavedave]

The more I think about it the more I feel we’d be better off investing money in other places. Lock a younger player like Wilson up long term as he has more upside. Sign Kempny and find an outside RD

It’s basically we sign Carlson or we sign pretty much everyone else.

Explore a trade for Faulk using Grubauer+

Orpik is obviously gone in a year at worst, so imagining this team without Orpik and Carlson, I can't see them competing for a Cup with the replacements they have on hand. I positively hate the idea of letting Carlson walk and trading for someone like EKarlson for a boatload of compensation. That's a very Dan Snyder move, not a Captials move.

Of all the players on this team, JC would be by far the hardest to replace. 30 min per game, all special teams, scoring leader and defensively adequate. Even Kempny is much easier to replace, we found him for a 3rd. We've invested a 1st and years of development in JC and its all paid off.

JC is by my account a 1st pair D in a 2nd pair role. We lose Orlov or Nisky for some time like we did earlier this year, JC fills those minutes. Without JC, we lose DO or MN and we're in trouble.

So I think we sign Carlson and we let everything else fall where it may. I'm OK with doing Wilson short term until Orpik's salary is off the books, then pay TWil with Orpiks slot.

 

[Calicaps]

Orpik is obviously gone in a year at worst, so imagining this team without Orpik and Carlson, I can't see them competing for a Cup with the replacements they have on hand. I positively hate the idea of letting Carlson walk and trading for someone like EKarlson for a boatload of compensation. That's a very Dan Snyder move, not a Captials move.

Of all the players on this team, JC would be by far the hardest to replace. 30 min per game, all special teams, scoring leader and defensively adequate. Even Kempny is much easier to replace, we found him for a 3rd. We've invested a 1st and years of development in JC and its all paid off.

JC is by my account a 1st pair D in a 2nd pair role. We lose Orlov or Nisky for some time like we did earlier this year, JC fills those minutes. Without JC, we lose DO or MN and we're in trouble.

So I think we sign Carlson and we let everything else fall where it may. I'm OK with doing Wilson short term until Orpik's salary is off the books, then pay TWil with Orpiks slot.

I agree with all of this and suspect that’s the angle they will take with the younger RFAs generally.

 

[BobRouse]

Orpik is obviously gone in a year at worst, so imagining this team without Orpik and Carlson, I can't see them competing for a Cup with the replacements they have on hand. I positively hate the idea of letting Carlson walk and trading for someone like EKarlson for a boatload of compensation. That's a very Dan Snyder move, not a Captials move.

Of all the players on this team, JC would be by far the hardest to replace. 30 min per game, all special teams, scoring leader and defensively adequate. Even Kempny is much easier to replace, we found him for a 3rd. We've invested a 1st and years of development in JC and its all paid off.

JC is by my account a 1st pair D in a 2nd pair role. We lose Orlov or Nisky for some time like we did earlier this year, JC fills those minutes. Without JC, we lose DO or MN and we're in trouble.

So I think we sign Carlson and we let everything else fall where it may. I'm OK with doing Wilson short term until Orpik's salary is off the books, then pay TWil with Orpiks slot.

You will want him gone just like Pitt fans want Letang gone.

His numbers are inflated playing on our PP just like MJs were.

Next year there will be a bunch of UFA dmen. We have a few young hungry dmen who could step in.

Have to be careful not to let emotions take over.

A guy like Justin Faulk would be far cheaper than EK and the drop off on the PP wouldn’t be that big imo.

Remember just the year before last Carlson got demoted from PP1 by Niskanen and then Shattenkirk.

 

[BobRouse]

I agree with all of this and suspect that’s the angle they will take with the younger RFAs generally.

Carlson had a career year as a UFA and is in a weak class.

Would you be comfortable with an OEL deal of 8x8.25? What if it needs to be more like 8x9?

 

[Calicaps]

Carlson had a career year as a UFA and is in a weak class.

Would you be comfortable with an OEL deal of 8x8.25? What if it needs to be more like 8x9?

Carlson did have a career year, but he's got a strong playoff track record before this season too. I admit 8x9 might give me pause, but I'd do OEL's deal, depending on the details. Like @kicksavedave said, losing 74 creates a ton of holes that would need to be filled. It's not just... oh we need a 2RD.

 

[BobRouse]

Carlson did have a career year, but he's got a strong playoff track record before this season too. I admit 8x9 might give me pause, but I'd do OEL's deal, depending on the details. Like @kicksavedave said, losing 74 creates a ton of holes that would need to be filled. It's not just... oh we need a 2RD.

He has been good in the playoffs overall. He’s lost half a step already tho and is not going to get better or faster at this point.

Look at Pitt...they actually played better WITHOUT letang. Chicago is looking to dump Seabrook at all costs. The Rangers made big mistakes with the likes of Staal after he had a few impressive post seasons.

Look into Faulk. If not give Bowey a chance and you maybe surprised.

Carlson at OEL $$$ will be an albatross the more I ponder it.

 

[RandyHolt]

Dare I think Bowey learned a ton this year, and could eat a small bite out of the Carlson pie when he bolts. Bowey cut his teeth and learned / saw what it takes to win in this league. He had a ringside seat. I would like to see him come into camp with a fire in his belly and play a bit more ornery.

I will say it again. I fear fat cat disease.

 

[Silky mitts]

You will want him gone just like Pitt fans want Letang gone.

His numbers are inflated playing on our PP just like MJs were.

Next year there will be a bunch of UFA dmen. We have a few young hungry dmen who could step in.

Have to be careful not to let emotions take over.

A guy like Justin Faulk would be far cheaper than EK and the drop off on the PP wouldn’t be that big imo.

Remember just the year before last Carlson got demoted from PP1 by Niskanen and then Shattenkirk.

The difference between Carlson and Mojo (and every Cap besides Ovy, Oshie, and Holtby) is Mojo would put up like 30-85% of his regular season numbers in the playoffs and Carlson is 0.55 ppg regular and postseason. Last year I hoped the Caps would jettison all these guys who disappear and do whatever it took to keep Oshie (Any GM would have kept Kuzy and Orlov). I wouldn't exceed 8x8 for Carlson though.

 

[BobRouse]

Dare I think Bowey learned a ton this year, and could eat a small bite out of the Carlson pie when he bolts. Bowey cut his teeth and learned / saw what it takes to win in this league. He had a ringside seat. I would like to see him come into camp with a fire in his belly and play a bit more ornery.

I will say it again. I fear fat cat disease.

If this year taught us anything it’s that an injection of hungry fresh legged youth can do wonders

 

[BobRouse]

The difference between Carlson and Mojo (and every Cap besides Ovy, Oshie, and Holtby) is Mojo would put up like 30-85% of his regular season numbers in the playoffs and Carlson is 0.55 ppg regular and postseason. Last year I hoped the Caps would jettison all these guys who disappear and do whatever it took to keep Oshie (Any GM would have kept Kuzy and Orlov). I wouldn't exceed 8x8 for Carlson though.

Kuzy and Orlov were younger with more upside. Carlson has peaked and not sure he can repeat what he did this year.

I suspect GMBM will put a final offer of 8x7 and let him walk if he wants more. And even that I feel will end up being sucktastic in a couple years

Let’s go with hungry youth!

 

[RandyHolt]

If this year taught us anything it’s that an injection of hungry fresh legged youth can do wonders

Yep - Barry was almost forced to use the kids, and they did great. Heck even Bowey cutting his teeth, we were in first place for what seemed like most of the year.

And we learned, that the proper older vets that have always played with a passion, no matter their contract status or salary, will likely to continue doing so. #Orpik

 

[Calicaps]

If this year taught us anything it’s that an injection of hungry fresh legged youth can do wonders

I agree with this, but when you look at the numbers, it was ultimately the vets who did the heavy lifting on this run. I'm not sure the kids are ready to carry the load just yet.

 

[artilector]

He has been good in the playoffs overall. He’s lost half a step already tho and is not going to get better or faster at this point.

Look at Pitt...they actually played better WITHOUT letang. Chicago is looking to dump Seabrook at all costs. The Rangers made big mistakes with the likes of Staal after he had a few impressive post seasons.

Look into Faulk. If not give Bowey a chance and you maybe surprised.

Carlson at OEL $$$ will be an albatross the more I ponder it.

I agree with this assessment.

But, stability on D can be easy to lose and hard to regain -- and the Caps might understandably want some stability now for the remaining Ovi/Backstrom years. I don't know quite how adventurous (youth movement, etc) the Caps' brass will really become after this year.

Would be interesting to know what the Caps establish as the walkaway price...

 

[BobRouse]

I agree with this, but when you look at the numbers, it was ultimately the vets who did the heavy lifting on this run. I'm not sure the kids are ready to carry the load just yet.

Why wouldn’t the vets be able to do the same next year? Is Niskanen THAT much worse of a PP QB?

If so you forget the year before last where he took over for JC

In 2016 I felt one of our issues vs the Pens was JC on the PP. that’s why we went with Niskanen and went out and got shatty in 17

This past year was an aberration for Carlson. Don’t lose sight of that

 

[BobRouse]

I agree with this assessment.

But, stability on D can be easy to lose and hard to regain -- and the Caps might understandably want some stability now for the remaining Ovi/Backstrom years. I don't know quite how adventurous (youth movement, etc) the Caps' brass will really become after this year.

Would be interesting to know what the Caps establish as the walkaway price...

It comes down to the cap hit. I’d be ok with 7per I guess

At 8 and above it has regret written all over it

 

[Calicaps]

Why wouldn’t the vets be able to do the same next year? Is Niskanen THAT much worse of a PP QB?

If so you forget the year before last where he took over for JC

In 2016 I felt one of our issues vs the Pens was JC on the PP. that’s why we went with Niskanen and went out and got shatty in 17

This past year was an aberration for Carlson. Don’t lose sight of that

Not sure I agree with this. Carlson hadn't really had the opportunity to be the PP point man consistently because of Greenlife52, and it took him time to grow into it. Niskanen is worse because he doesn't represent the shot threat that 74 does even if he can make the Ovie pass fine.

As to the vets doing the same next year, I was including Carlson as a big piece of that vet group, and more so going forward after Orpik's contract is done (or especially if they trade/retire him this year). Again, I think losing 74 opens up a lot of holes. I'm not convinced they couldn't fill them, but I don't think will be as easy as maybe you do.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hey Tinner, there will always be those that complain about players in down years. The more rational fans get it and don’t start pissing fire when a guy shows he’s human and has an off year.

Welcome to the salary cap world.

 

[BobRouse]

Not sure I agree with this. Carlson hadn't really had the opportunity to be the PP point man consistently because of Greenlife52, and it took him time to grow into it. Niskanen is worse because he doesn't represent the shot threat that 74 does even if he can make the Ovie pass fine.

As to the vets doing the same next year, I was including Carlson as a big piece of that vet group, and more so going forward after Orpik's contract is done (or especially if they trade/retire him this year). Again, I think losing 74 opens up a lot of holes. I'm not convinced they couldn't fill them, but I don't think will be as easy as maybe you do.

Look at the UFA group of D the year after this one. It’s impressive to say the least. Having cap flexibility will be nice while letting young players grow

Again comes down to cost. Carlson’s agent says the number STARTS at 8x8. That was before the OEL news too...