Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

[Empty Goal Net]

Part of JC's consideration is how much he likes winning versus getting an extra mil or so a year. Bidders may be ready to open wallets, but teams with a realistic chance of getting him back to the Finals are a more limited group. Does he want a big payday and possibly a chance that his new team will be competitive in five years? I've never been in his situation, but I'm guessing almost all of the players in his position put some value on being with a winning team.

 

[CapsDC]

When they signed Oshie to the 8 yr deal I cringed a little, thinking of the back end of that deal where we're paying him 5-6 per and his play may have fallen off dramatically. But the thing is I don't care right now and wish I could hug GMBM for doing it. Oshie was a stud during this run.

I don't buy the Carlson peaking stuff either. He's 28, maybe he's at his peak physically but guys continue to grow in the mental aspect of their game. We've seen plenty of guys have career years at 30 because of this. I don't want to go nuts here overpaying him but I also think we need to try to get this guy back for 18-19 to defend this cup. I trust GMBM will look at the big picture and make the correct decision.

 

[Calicaps]

The PP thing is a bit of a red herring too. Carlson isn't Green. He's solid if unremarkable on D, has a good first pass, brings a bit of physicality, had 68 points in RS, include 36 at EV, plays all situations, and was 5th among all skaters in assists in the post-season. We're not talking 8x8 for a guy who's some one-trick pony.

 

[Jags]

See it wouldn’t be that exactly. The opposite could be true. We sign him to that deal and Wilson gets his raise we will likely lose all of DSP, Kempny and Beagle and a few extra mil left over for another Dman

Those 3 were pretty critical to our cup run and aren’t easily replaced either.

Not easily, but without too much effort. We have replacements for all three of them in our system already. And if those replacements still need time to cook, there's the rental and trade markets. We can weather those losses if we have to, and could conceivably get younger, better, and cheaper in the process.

There is no replacement for Carlson. We're thin at RD on the farm, no UFAs come close to fitting the bill, a trade for someone comparable would cost massive futures, and waiting a year for the UFAs that may hit the market will mean more of a cap hit and more than likely being outbid or ignored for a higher-profile club.

Losing Carlson AND giving up what we'd have to to adequately replace him would be a massive blow to our team. Keeping Carlson AND keeping those assets in hand to build on the team we are with him is a no-brainer.

 

[third man in]

Also the minutes spread on D was unbalanced. You had the three top pairing minute munchers and then basically 3 bottom pairing guys. It would be hard to replace Carlson's 24+ min.

As much as I love Beagle and DSP they are relatively replaceable. If Carlson leaves he leaves but they need to try their best to keep him.

 

[sycamore]

Ugh God I'm really not sure about DSP being replaceable. He's a folk hero in this town at this point. When an unsung player
start going nuts for the Caps in the playoffs in the future, we are not going to refer to John Druce, we are going to refer to DSP.
I mean talk about secondary scoring in the playoffs -- he was the secondary scoring.

 

[RandyHolt]

If Carlson bolts, one of our left twigs can move over, and sink or swim take on a bigger role. We could move Orlov to RD, or move Jerabek / Kempny over.

Instead of all the focus on retaining Carlson, focus on replacing him. Try it internally, and don't continue to fear using young players. Look at Pitts D less Letang. Somehow, it worked. It's called center depth.

Someone this winter said, Carlson at 4M was at his best, but then we will be paying an extra 4M next year for the same player, or maybe even less... hungry. The key thing was, we parlayed that and him into a cup. Everything, was perfect. Except creating the impossible to sign player. There is only him. This is a dream UFA scenario. A nightmare, for our cap aspirations. But it almost doesnt matter, because we won the cup.

Teams that win cups are trying to churn out guys that play great for 4M. Don't panic, continue using what we have, and add as needed. If BMac can pull off more Kempny/Jerabeks cheap great pickups, we can survive. If we ink John at 8+, BMac is handcuffed and less able to do his thing. Loading a roster with a top heavy cap hits, is just not easy to manage.

I hate seeing players developed and bolt their original team as soon as they get great, but that is the modern NHL now. I would like to see teams more able to retain home grown talent. Exemptions for great GMs. Dynasty teams can no longer exist.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

RHD that can play in all situations, log #1D minutes, and run a PP are unicorns in the NHL.

Might be the most coveted asset behind a true 1C.

The Caps have one that has missed fewer than 40 games in his career. They should do everything they can to keep him.

 

[ovikovy817]

PAY
THE
MAN

 

[embiid21]

The Man don't cost more than 7.5*8 m(60m), because i hardly believe he will get in UFA more than 8.5*7 - 9*7 m (59.5-63). If he get somehow 9.5*7 m it will disaster for the team who sign him)

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Well I have three potential suitors for Carlson outside of the Capitals.
- Vegas, George McPhee made the trade to Philly and then with the pick took Carlson and this would give him another opportunity to F the organization, they can afford him
- Philadelphia, no doubt the organization will always regret that trade with the Caps that resulted in the Carlson pick, Carlson would relocate half way between where he grew up and where his wife grew up (Bethesda), looking at the Philly roster somewhat amazing that they are mostly RDs but still I'm sure they would have no problem finding a space for Carlson, they can afford him
- New Jersey, the team he rooted for growing up and not far from where he grew up, looking at their roster he could fit in nicely with the young developing d-corps, they can afford him

Hopefully I'm wrong!

 

[BobRouse]

Sure, other teams can give him more per year, but only the Caps can give him the full term.

It will be interesting to see how far a team will be willing to go. If Vegas throws 7x10 at him there is little chance we could compete with that. They need a top pair RHD who was Schmidt’s former partner and one that GM drafted him.

 

[BobRouse]

The Man don't cost more than 7.5*8 m(60m), because i hardly believe he will get in UFA more than 8.5*7 - 9*7 m (59.5-63). If he get somehow 9.5*7 m it will disaster for the team who sign him)

For a team like the Caps it would but if a team has 40 mil in cap space what’s an extra 1-1.5 per? To them it’s nothing

 

[VaCaps Fan]

GMGM should be banned from making any deals with the Caps. Guy is obsessed with screwing us over. Especially since he blew his one chance to win a cup and Vegas will morph into a typical mediocre team.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

I want to see Bob Rouse interview GMGM! On his terrible management of course!

 

[txpd]

It will be interesting to see how far a team will be willing to go. If Vegas throws 7x10 at him there is little chance we could compete with that. They need a top pair RHD who was Schmidt’s former partner and one that GM drafted him.

Keep in mind that he was Mahoney that drafted him. That McPhee only supervised what Mahoney did.

 

[BobRouse]

Keep in mind that he was Mahoney that drafted him. That McPhee only supervised what Mahoney did.

He’s still familiar with the player and his team has the cap space and a huge need for a player exactly like him.

 

[RandyHolt]

When a team has a great coach and system in place and working, it becomes far less important to invest so heavily in one person. We may finally have a coach that figured those things out. Not coincidentally, also figured out kids can help win. Starting with Christian Djoos. Pitt won a cup with a no name D one year. Their worst playoff D man this year? Their highest paid D man.

I just didn't see Carlson leading our D to the cup . It was more Orpik and Niskanen doing all the lions share of dirty work. Nothing against Carlson at all. Yeah he racked up a lot of points. 24GP... only 4 ESP. Every time I checked the event summary, there was Nisky (8 ESP) leading in TOI. I contend it was not a coincidence he was 4th to hoist the cup. Heavy lifters go first as we all know. Anytime I saw a D man catch my eye on the backend, it was Orpik.

If I saw Oshie or Eller type of dogged heart and soul play out him, I would fully be in the pay any price for him camp.

The mistake was not extending him previously if retaining him is of the utmost importance. He has largely been playing the same way for years now, but we let him get to a point where he is the only big name out there. Our goose may be cooked. At least we played his strengths and his low salary to a cup.

 

[Portable Mink]

Carlson signs or he is going full bolt after cash. His wife would want to stay, he is minding burkys Porsche over the summer, it’s looking most likely.

If he goes, niskanen is a better PP option than green, probably worth 85% of Carlson on the PP anyway. Downgrade on point shot is about it.

Just settle all of you.

We aren’t skill reliant on D. We are system reliant. Huge difference

 

[BiPolar Caps]

If there's a silver lining if Carlson doesn't resign, it's that the Caps should be able to bring everyone else back then and even keep Grubauer if the market for him is not to the team's liking (you usually get more value on a player at TDL).

No Carlson, that frees up just under 4 and at minimum a cap increase of 3 will give you about 7 to resign Kempny, Wilson and DPS RFAs, perhaps Beagle as well as Gruby's RFA and Jerabek. No need for Chiasson returning as one of Gersich, AFJ or Walker will take his spot. Bowey should also return to the team as well taking the spot vacated by Carlson, so that the d-corps should be:
Orpik - Niskanen
Djoos - Kempny
Bowey - Orpik
Jerebek

 

[txpd]

He’s still familiar with the player and his team has the cap space and a huge need for a player exactly like him.

Well, we will see. The Caps are not much of a threat next season without Carlson.

 

[txpd]

Orpik - Niskanen
Djoos - Kempny
Bowey - Orpik
Jerebek

That is awful. Particularly double shifting Orpik at his age.
You meant Orlov, I am sure

 

[BiPolar Caps]

That is awful. Particularly double shifting Orpik at his age.
You meant Orlov, I am sure

He's in the last year of his contract, make him earn it.

Yeah I meant Orlov.

 

[txpd]

If he goes, niskanen is a better PP option than green, probably worth 85% of Carlson on the PP anyway. Downgrade on point shot is about it.

No. Niskanen had his time in that spot on the pp and wasn't that good at it. More importantly, he leads the Caps in minutes as it is. You cant add all that pp time in on top of that.

Niskanen and Carlson are both 25 minute players. replacing either of them will be a bear. Carlson plays both PP and PK. He plays primary late game offensive and defensive situations. Kempny isn't going to cover any of that.

 

[txpd]

He's in the last year of his contract, make him earn it.

Yeah I meant Orlov.

Djoos and Kempny has missing the playoffs written all over it. Particularly if Copley is going to play 20+ games