Joffrey Lupul: Why He's Being Robidas'd and Not Bought Out OR Traded

indigobuffalo

Portage and Main
Feb 10, 2011
6,790
559
Winnipeg MB
I was reading Friedman's 30 Thoughts article this week, and he covered some important things about the potential upcoming expansion draft, which may be June 2017.

link to full article
19. In the aftermath of the GM meetings, I admitted to being confused about players who will be completing their sophomore professional seasons — Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, William Nylander, etc. — and their eligibility for a potential June 2017 expansion draft. In asking for clarification, I was told, “Players who have only earned two years of pro service are second-year pros and are exempt.†So there you go. Unless the framework is changed, teams (and their fans) need not worry.

20. In all of the discussions about potential expansion draft rules, a couple execs warned the “25 per cent rule†did not get enough play. If you spend to the projected ceiling of $74 million, you’ll have to expose at least $18.5 million of unprotected salary. That’s not going to be easy, especially if players with no-move clauses can’t be exposed.

21. GMs were also informed that Las Vegas and/or Quebec City (should one or both get teams) would likely not pick any higher than third in an amateur draft, although those discussions are still in their infancy. That fits with the most recent expansion. In 2000, Minnesota chose third (Marian Gaborik), while Columbus followed one spot later (Rostislav Klesla).

So based on this, it really clarifies the Joffrey Lupul situation. If he's "at odds" with the team and they don't want him around (speculation on my part), then why hasn't he been bought out? Or traded. He's got some value, if it really came down to it, a team could take him in a cap dump deal. They managed to find a way to unload Phaneuf, Kessel, and Clarkson. Lupul's deal is not as bad as those were.

So reading thought #20, the reason finally became clear. He's need as part of the "Expansion Draft Floor".

Teams need to expose 25% of their cap expenditures. We're not loaded with NMCs, so it shouldn't be an issue there, but our high-dollar-earners are keepers (except for Lupul).

We have a LOT of ELC players and RFAs, so getting $18M won't be easy. That's where Lupul comes in. He can be exposed in the expansion draft to drive up the total cap we expose, and ensure we aren't forced to expose someone we don't want to, like Rielly or Gardiner.

Additionally, I think we're going to see Lamoriello be somewhat active in the UFA market, targeting players that will allow the Leafs to further rack up the cap hit to hit the 25% mark. Or maybe they'll target more cap dump players with more interest in the actual cap dump than anything else.

Anyways, some food for thought.
 

KGL

Auston 3:16
Sep 5, 2014
7,499
9
He hasn't been traded because he's terrible and constantly injured. Say what you will about Kessel and Phaneuf but they could both stay healthy and still provided value on the ice, Lupul doesn't. Clarkson was a unique situation which we aren't likely to come across again.

I'm not sure I could see him getting Robidas'd. There's a big difference between 39 year old Robidas agreeing to bow out, and 32 year old Lupul. Will he agree to sit out and retire at only 32? Remains to be seen.

Buying him out is possible, but also unlikely, I think they'll keep him on the roster for the reason you mentioned, to expose the necessary amount of their salary cap. That means if he doesn't agree to disappear, doesn't get bought out, and is essentially untradeable, then the only other option is he's constantly in the press box or he agrees to go down to the Marlies and attempt to show he's "still got it".
 

Eternal Leaf

Registered User
Jul 4, 2011
7,778
9,145
Toronto
He's injury prone, so a trade is just not going to happen.

The buyout is a tough pill to swallow.

2017 (1.5 M)
2018 (3 M)
2019 (1.5 M)
2020 (1.5 M)

That second year into the buyout would be damaging.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
40,269
10,157
I was reading Friedman's 30 Thoughts article this week, and he covered some important things about the potential upcoming expansion draft, which may be June 2017.



So based on this, it really clarifies the Joffrey Lupul situation. If he's "at odds" with the team and they don't want him around (speculation on my part), then why hasn't he been bought out? Or traded. He's got some value, if it really came down to it, a team could take him in a cap dump deal. They managed to find a way to unload Phaneuf, Kessel, and Clarkson. Lupul's deal is not as bad as those were.

So reading thought #20, the reason finally became clear. He's need as part of the "Expansion Draft Floor".

Teams need to expose 25% of their cap expenditures. We're not loaded with NMCs, so it shouldn't be an issue there, but our high-dollar-earners are keepers (except for Lupul).

We have a LOT of ELC players and RFAs, so getting $18M won't be easy. That's where Lupul comes in. He can be exposed in the expansion draft to drive up the total cap we expose, and ensure we aren't forced to expose someone we don't want to, like Rielly or Gardiner.

Additionally, I think we're going to see Lamoriello be somewhat active in the UFA market, targeting players that will allow the Leafs to further rack up the cap hit to hit the 25% mark. Or maybe they'll target more cap dump players with more interest in the actual cap dump than anything else.

Anyways, some food for thought.

What happens with expiring contracts? Contracts are up July, expansion June. Could we not just expose the expiring?
 

Falon

Registered User
May 21, 2004
2,113
36
Kitchener, Ontario
I was reading Friedman's 30 Thoughts article this week, and he covered some important things about the potential upcoming expansion draft, which may be June 2017.



So based on this, it really clarifies the Joffrey Lupul situation. If he's "at odds" with the team and they don't want him around (speculation on my part), then why hasn't he been bought out? Or traded. He's got some value, if it really came down to it, a team could take him in a cap dump deal. They managed to find a way to unload Phaneuf, Kessel, and Clarkson. Lupul's deal is not as bad as those were.

So reading thought #20, the reason finally became clear. He's need as part of the "Expansion Draft Floor".

Teams need to expose 25% of their cap expenditures. We're not loaded with NMCs, so it shouldn't be an issue there, but our high-dollar-earners are keepers (except for Lupul).

We have a LOT of ELC players and RFAs, so getting $18M won't be easy. That's where Lupul comes in. He can be exposed in the expansion draft to drive up the total cap we expose, and ensure we aren't forced to expose someone we don't want to, like Rielly or Gardiner.

Additionally, I think we're going to see Lamoriello be somewhat active in the UFA market, targeting players that will allow the Leafs to further rack up the cap hit to hit the 25% mark. Or maybe they'll target more cap dump players with more interest in the actual cap dump than anything else.

Anyways, some food for thought.

They are not as far off as you might think when you include Horton's contract. It becomes closer to 7 million that they need to expose. If they still have Bozak, you can expect to see him there too. Which makes it about 3 million to expose, which is easy.
 

Kurtz

Registered User
Jul 17, 2005
10,100
6,970
That's pretty good detective work, Indigo. I'd just assumed that we couldn't move him and wanted his spot to go to a youngin, but this offers another benefit.
 

BlueBaron

Registered User
May 29, 2006
15,670
6,305
Sarnia, On
I think it is more likely they keep him next year, hope he stays healthy and then move him at the deadline with retention. We could always get a free agent and sign him to a 2 year 4-5 mil year deal and then expose him. Looking at our current salaries we will have a hard time getting to that number.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
40,269
10,157
Assuming 7-3-1 protection.

How many kids organization wide do we have and @ what salary. Say we have 15 vulnerable in the AHL @ 750k avg, that bites down on it too.
 

number72

Registered User
Oct 9, 2011
6,150
3
Lupul is getting sport hernia surgery just like Hunwick.
Any talk of Lupul getting Robidas'd is mindless speculation
 

GordieHoweHatTrick

Registered User
Sep 20, 2009
16,461
280
Toronto
You may be onto something. Outside of Lupul there is nobody with a contract that would help Toronto with that 25% rule, unless someone thought it was a good idea to expose Rielly, Gardiner or JvR.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
40,269
10,157
You may be onto something. Outside of Lupul there is nobody with a contract that would help Toronto with that 25% rule, unless someone thought it was a good idea to expose Rielly, Gardiner or JvR.

The eligible pro contracts in the AHL add up pretty quickly though. I mean they have to count too right? Nothing is stating the 18m must be active roster on the last day of the season.
 

KGL

Auston 3:16
Sep 5, 2014
7,499
9
Does Horton's contract count? Thats 11 mill right there between the two of them:laugh:

Remains to be seen. Horton may end up taking one of our protection slots due to his NMC. All up in the air right now.
 

The Podium

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
22,948
10,199
Toronto
Remains to be seen. Horton may end up taking one of our protection slots due to his NMC. All up in the air right now.

IIRC you lose your NMC when you are traded. Regardless its a moot point, Horton's contract would be a NTC by the time of an expansion draft.
 

GordieHoweHatTrick

Registered User
Sep 20, 2009
16,461
280
Toronto
The eligible pro contracts in the AHL add up pretty quickly though. I mean they have to count too right? Nothing is stating the 18m must be active roster on the last day of the season.

I'm not sure but in the Leafs' case, if they protected Rielly, Gardiner, Carrick on D and Kadri, JvR, Komarov, Bozak, Leivo, Brown, Leipsic at F (Nylander, Sosh, Brown, Hyman and Kapanen are exempt from my understanding) then it'd be difficult to hit that 18M mark with the remaining contracts of players with at least 2 years pro experience.

Who fits the bill?

Lupul, maybe Holland, some UFAs signed between now and then, and a handful of players with <1M contracts. Without Lupul I think it'd be hard to hit that mark because a large portion of those 39 other pro contracts will be exempt (I think).
 

KGL

Auston 3:16
Sep 5, 2014
7,499
9
IIRC you lose your NMC when you are traded. Regardless its a moot point, Horton's contract would be a NTC by the time of an expansion draft.

I'm not certain about No Move Clauses being voided once the player is moved, but Horton's NMC runs through next season. Assuming the draft would be next off season Horton would still have a NMC (assuming it wasn't voided when he was moved).
 

The Podium

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
22,948
10,199
Toronto
I'm not certain about No Move Clauses being voided once the player is moved, but Horton's NMC runs through next season. Assuming the draft would be next off season Horton would still have a NMC (assuming it wasn't voided when he was moved).

His NMC changes to a modified NTC between the 2016-2017 and the 2017-2018 season. Not sure the exact date of the switch though? Is it the end of the 2016-2017 season or to the day he signed (July 5th)
 

KGL

Auston 3:16
Sep 5, 2014
7,499
9
His NMC changes to a modified NTC between the 2016-2017 and the 2017-2018 season. Not sure the exact date of the switch though? Is it the end of the 2016-2017 season or to the day he signed (July 5th)

I'd imagine it would change when the season turns over from 16-17 to 17-18. Thing is, we don't know when the draft would take place. It would be during that summer I'd assume, but would it technically be during the 16-17 season or the 17-18 season? Big difference for many reasons.
 

sxvnert

Registered User
Nov 23, 2015
11,897
6,909
Nothing wrong with keeping Lupul around until his contract expires. Its not like having a 5+ mil player for an entire season soaking up minutes. He's injured so often that it will allow a few youngsters a promotion throughout the year.

Also won't take up valuable minutes at the cost of another youngsters development (Phaneuf). Babs will put him on the bottom two lines until he injures himself again. Then Lou will stretch out his recovery time.
 

thewave

Registered User
Jun 17, 2011
40,269
10,157
I'm not sure but in the Leafs' case, if they protected Rielly, Gardiner, Carrick on D and Kadri, JvR, Komarov, Bozak, Leivo, Brown, Leipsic at F (Nylander, Sosh, Brown, Hyman and Kapanen are exempt from my understanding) then it'd be difficult to hit that 18M mark with the remaining contracts of players with at least 2 years pro experience.

Who fits the bill?

Lupul, maybe Holland, some UFAs signed between now and then, and a handful of players with <1M contracts. Without Lupul I think it'd be hard to hit that mark because a large portion of those 39 other pro contracts will be exempt (I think).

Maybe you're right. I don't know who is exposed to what anymore and I give up.
 

The Podium

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
22,948
10,199
Toronto
I'd imagine it would change when the season turns over from 16-17 to 17-18. Thing is, we don't know when the draft would take place. It would be during that summer I'd assume, but would it technically be during the 16-17 season or the 17-18 season? Big difference for many reasons.

Apparently the NHL pays players from Mid-october to late April. Which means technically the contract year is up in late April. It may not be the truth but definitely an arguable case from the teams point of view to the league. I'd assume an expansion draft would be before free agency, if that marks the day of switch then the Leafs are stuck protecting Horton.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
78,727
53,270
I imagine Lupul would be happy to collect the remaining two years being sent home to enjoy life rather than take the buyout and face the prospect of a PTO in camp and come out with less money.
 

LeafsNation75

Registered User
Jan 15, 2010
37,975
12,506
Toronto, Ontario
I imagine Lupul would be happy to collect the remaining two years being sent home to enjoy life rather than take the buyout and face the prospect of a PTO in camp and come out with less money.
I still wonder if Lupul might go to the NHLPA and say he's healthy, because I don't think he will accept it like the way Robidas did.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad