Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part III (Updates in First Post)

[Hasbro]

Weird that they'd announce some, but not all of them.

Here's the PHWA mid season with Sakic winning it.

 

[Linds]

Knock on wood, but the Avs could clean up on awards this year

 

[Sea Eagles]

Super Joe as a player. Super Joe as a GM.

 

[ASmileyFace]

Here's the PHWA mid season with Sakic winning it.

They had Chayka in second. Can a GM win a GM of the year award if he quits the job? lol

 

[Pokecheque]

They had Chayka in second. Can a GM win a GM of the year award if he quits the job? lol

Jesus...really? I'd put quite a few GMs ahead of Chayka. And I still maintain that a majority of NHL GMs are kinda bad at their jobs.

 

[Hasbro]

They had Chayka in second. Can a GM win a GM of the year award if he quits the job? lol

No idea why anyone would overrate Chayka...

 

[Pokecheque]

No idea why anyone would overrate Chayka...

In this regard, we agree. But even the stats community kinda wondered why there was so much hype around him. I think they just thought he'd be another Theo Epstein.

 

[Papa Francouz]

I love Bednar to death. Absolute death. But with Gallant still floating around out there, would the Avs be better off with him as HC over JB?

 

[Pokecheque]

I love Bednar to death. Absolute death. But with Gallant still floating around out there, would the Avs be better off with him as HC over JB?

No.

 

[Papa Francouz]

No.

Why not? Do you not think Gallant would elevate this team into legit contender territory? Or is it only a matter of time until they get there with JB?

 

[Pokecheque]

Why not? Do you not think Gallant would elevate this team into legit contender territory? Or is it only a matter of time until they get there with JB?

Is Gallant really a massive upgrade on Bednar? I don't think he is. Bednar turned the worst team of the modern era that was last place in every meaningful category into a team that, in terms of GF and GA per game, ended up with the fourth-best offense and sixth-best defense. He somehow got the Avs to do this despite the fact that they do not have elite goaltending and also sport the fourth-lowest payroll in the National Hockey League. Oh, and he also had to deal with injuries across the board, including the goaltender and the team's best player, before the season was abruptly ended, They still ended it with the Avalanche within one win of being tied with the defending Stanley Cup champs for the top spot in the Western Conference.

I'm reticent to ever give a coach too much credit--obviously it helps when the team has one of the best, if not THE best player in hockey on the roster. But surely he gets some of the credit here. I can't really say a single player on the roster has really struggled or regressed under him. Pretty sure we'll find out in the coming years that he got the very most out of Nikita Zadorov.

I have no idea if JB will be The Man who get the Avalanche to the Promised Land. If it doesn't happen this year (and I'm guessing it won't) then it's going to take continued development of the team's top prospects, maybe an addition or two by the general manager, and maybe a little bit of luck. Maybe it falls together under Bednar, maybe someone else will have to take the team to the next step. I don't know. But I don't think it makes any sense to pull the rug out from under the team just to get a guy in there who managed the great feat of taking an expansion club to the Stanley Cup Final their first year of existence.

There are also a couple red flags, however small, on Gallant. One of the reasons, reportedly, he literally got left on the curb by the Panthers is because he bitched and moaned at management for trading away objectively awful hockey player Erik Gudbranson. Not saying that was a justified firing, it clearly was a dumb panic move by Florida, who has a litany of their own problems. But then...just a couple years later, Gallant got fired AGAIN by the Golden Knights not even two years removed from that incredible inaugural season. Reportedly he clashed with management. Again. He's Obviously not everyone has to get along in an organization for them to win--apparently there was plenty of animosity between coach and GM the year Washington won it all. But why throw a grenade into the mix when everyone in the organization finally appears to be on the same page? You don't pull that pin unless the team seriously underachieves. And they haven't...yet. I get that they have played against this Dallas team poorly for whatever reason, but it shouldn't be any sort of justification for a coaching change.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Is Gallant really a massive upgrade on Bednar? I don't think he is. Bednar turned the worst team of the modern era that was last place in every meaningful category into a team that, in terms of GF and GA per game, ended up with the fourth-best offense and sixth-best defense. He somehow got the Avs to do this despite the fact that they do not have elite goaltending and also sport the fourth-lowest payroll in the National Hockey League. Oh, and he also had to deal with injuries across the board, including the goaltender and the team's best player, before the season was abruptly ended, They still ended it with the Avalanche within one win of being tied with the defending Stanley Cup champs for the top spot in the Western Conference.

I'm reticent to ever give a coach too much credit--obviously it helps when the team has one of the best, if not THE best player in hockey on the roster. But surely he gets some of the credit here. I can't really say a single player on the roster has really struggled or regressed under him. Pretty sure we'll find out in the coming years that he got the very most out of Nikita Zadorov.

I have no idea if JB will be The Man who get the Avalanche to the Promised Land. If it doesn't happen this year (and I'm guessing it won't) then it's going to take continued development of the team's top prospects, maybe an addition or two by the general manager, and maybe a little bit of luck. Maybe it falls together under Bednar, maybe someone else will have to take the team to the next step. I don't know. But I don't think it makes any sense to pull the rug out from under the team just to get a guy in there who managed the great feat of taking an expansion club to the Stanley Cup Final their first year of existence.

There are also a couple red flags, however small, on Gallant. One of the reasons, reportedly, he literally got left on the curb by the Panthers is because he bitched and moaned at management for trading away objectively awful hockey player Erik Gudbranson. Not saying that was a justified firing, it clearly was a dumb panic move by Florida, who has a litany of their own problems. But then...just a couple years later, Gallant got fired AGAIN by the Golden Knights not even two years removed from that incredible inaugural season. Reportedly he clashed with management. Again. He's Obviously not everyone has to get along in an organization for them to win--apparently there was plenty of animosity between coach and GM the year Washington won it all. But why throw a grenade into the mix when everyone in the organization finally appears to be on the same page? You don't pull that pin unless the team seriously underachieves. And they haven't...yet. I get that they have played against this Dallas team poorly for whatever reason, but it shouldn't be any sort of justification for a coaching change.

I know Bednar is a good coach, potentially even a great coach, and I think he has the ability to win a Stanley Cup in the NHL, but with the Avs it has to be soon. He needs to prove that he can get the most out of this roster in the playoffs, which, while I think he can, is not apparent in this series against the Stars. The team crumbled last night and had no answer for Dallas despite being up 2-0 halfway through the game. I think some changes need to be made following this series against Dallas if they don't pull out a miracle and win the series. If nothing else, the assistant coach in charge of special teams needs to go.

I have no idea if Gallant is an upgrade on Bednar. Like you said, he took a brand new team to the Finals in their first ever season, which is very impressive. I have to think he'd be able to get the Avs to take the next step, if it's possible for them to do so. I'm not saying Gallant is the savior of the Avs, or anything, but he has taken worse rosters and had them play above their potential. Honestly, I'm probably just having a reaction to the loss last night because it was so painful, but JB needs to find a way to get the depth guys on the score sheet. We know they're capable of it because we saw it in the regular season and we saw it multiple times in the series against Arizona.

Having slept on this, though, I do have to question the method behind Sakic's roster construction. The forwards seem to be in their primes while the defensemen are not. Teams typically build from the back out, but given the draft picks it looks like Sakic tried to draft from the front in. It creates a bit of a mismatch when the defense is still learning the NHL game while the forwards are firing on all cylinders. I won't outright criticize this method unless the Avs completely fail at some point, but it is something to think about. For me, at least.

 

[IceKitties]

Since the Panthers/Gallant was mentioned, I thought I'd chime in as a Panthers fan.

I think Gallant is a great head coach. But if you read in between the lines on his firing in Florida and Vegas, it seems pretty clear to me that he might have issues with how he cooperates with upper management. At the time he was fired in Florida, all of the team's management was going crazy for analytics. And Gallant seemed to be very resistant to implementing the changes that the analytics suggested. That seems to be the primary reason he was fired and Rowe was implemented as a figurehead who would do what the analytics team said.

Again, I think he's a great coach. I don't know your team well enough to understand the intricacies of your team management. But if they have any above average interest in analytics, or you have management that likes to have a lot of control over the coach... there's a good chance that bringing in Gallant will create a lot of friction. He wore out his welcome very quickly in Vegas for what I would assume to be similar reasons. Ask yourself why he got fired in Vegas so shortly after taking their team all the way to the Cup final in their first season. That should buy you a boatload of goodwill with the upper management, right? He is a great, but stubborn coach who doesn't like to be told what to do.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Since the Panthers/Gallant was mentioned, I thought I'd chime in as a Panthers fan.

I think Gallant is a great head coach. But if you read in between the lines on his firing in Florida and Vegas, it seems pretty clear to me that he might have issues with how he cooperates with upper management. At the time he was fired in Florida, all of the team's management was going crazy for analytics. And Gallant seemed to be very resistant to implementing the changes that the analytics suggested. That seems to be the primary reason he was fired and Rowe was implemented as a figurehead who would do what the analytics team said.

Again, I think he's a great coach. I don't know your team well enough to understand the intricacies of your team management. But if they have any above average interest in analytics, or you have management that likes to have a lot of control over the coach... there's a good chance that bringing in Gallant will create a lot of friction. He wore out his welcome very quickly in Vegas for what I would assume to be similar reasons. Ask yourself why he got fired in Vegas so shortly after taking their team all the way to the Cup final in their first season. That should buy you a boatload of goodwill with the upper management, right? He is a great, but stubborn coach who doesn't like to be told what to do.

Appreciate the insight, thank you. The Avs have been embracing analytics for a couple of years now, and with their recent success I imagine they're leaning pretty hard into those numbers. If that alone makes Gallant incompatible with the team, that's too bad, but I prefer the two-headed approach of analytics + coaching to get the most out of a team instead of relying on coaching alone.

 

[Pokecheque]

I know Bednar is a good coach, potentially even a great coach, and I think he has the ability to win a Stanley Cup in the NHL, but with the Avs it has to be soon. He needs to prove that he can get the most out of this roster in the playoffs, which, while I think he can, is not apparent in this series against the Stars. The team crumbled last night and had no answer for Dallas despite being up 2-0 halfway through the game. I think some changes need to be made following this series against Dallas if they don't pull out a miracle and win the series. If nothing else, the assistant coach in charge of special teams needs to go.

I have no idea if Gallant is an upgrade on Bednar. Like you said, he took a brand new team to the Finals in their first ever season, which is very impressive. I have to think he'd be able to get the Avs to take the next step, if it's possible for them to do so. I'm not saying Gallant is the savior of the Avs, or anything, but he has taken worse rosters and had them play above their potential. Honestly, I'm probably just having a reaction to the loss last night because it was so painful, but JB needs to find a way to get the depth guys on the score sheet. We know they're capable of it because we saw it in the regular season and we saw it multiple times in the series against Arizona.

Having slept on this, though, I do have to question the method behind Sakic's roster construction. The forwards seem to be in their primes while the defensemen are not. Teams typically build from the back out, but given the draft picks it looks like Sakic tried to draft from the front in. It creates a bit of a mismatch when the defense is still learning the NHL game while the forwards are firing on all cylinders. I won't outright criticize this method unless the Avs completely fail at some point, but it is something to think about. For me, at least.

I'm pretty neutral on the assistants. Bennett deserves credit for installing a new power play system that, for the most part, works. I wish he and Bednar moved faster when things don't work--like when they started having MacKinnon pick different spots to fire his one-timers--but I'm largely okay with his job thus far, at least in that respect. The PK is largely mediocre, but I think that mostly has to do with Bednar's insistence on using guys who aren't good enough defensively to really secure the puck, and the system itself is just too passive and leads to way too many shooting lanes being open. Ironically, I thought the PK kicked it up a notch and was a lot more aggressive (until last night when the bottom fell out) but maybe that was mostly because Arizona's power play was so abysmal.

As for the defense, not sure what Sakic could have done differently. He had to rebuild it and there's no shortcut available unless he decides to trade one or both of Timmins or Byram. The one thing that's holding this defense back more than anything is EJ's complete and total inability to stay healthy. You can see how well they play when he's in the lineup and healthy, and how much they're struggling with him out. I figured Cole would more or less be a lost cause this season due to that double hip surgery. That was going to take a full year or more to recover from, and given his age he might not recover from it fully period. It's made a slow player slower and rendered his physical game ineffective. He doesn't have the movement or strength he usually does. Hopefully next season we'll see the guy that showed up in stretches a year ago. That guy was really good.

What needs to happen with the defense is continued evolution. Zadorov needs to go, Cole needs to get healthy and accept a 6/7 role, Graves needs to be put on a third pairing where he belongs, and Byram/Timmins hopefully each take top four roles. Also, one hopes both Girard and Makar take yet another step in their development, which I think is entirely possible. It's possible a trade or signing might be needed to further things along, I'm not sure. I don't think Pietrangelo is a good idea, but that's just MHO. As for EJ, well, I just hope dude can put together a reasonably good season, and then he's probably gone via buyout before the expansion draft.

Also, I don't think there's any real set "method" to team-building. You don't necessarily build from the back out or from the front in. You just take whatever the draft lottery gives you and go from there. If you focus on one position to start with you'll never build an effective team unless you run into a lot of luck. IMO a franchise center is the most imporant component of a Cup-winning team. That is even more important than a franchise defenseman.

As for Gallant, I'm still not sure he deserves quite as much credit as he's getting for Vegas. If he was that integral to the team's success, they'd be doing worse now instead of better under DeBoer. Again, he'll get another job and he'll probably do well (I'd laugh if he got the gig in Seattle, but it's very, very possible that he does) but there are only two coaches--Barry Trotz and Joel Quenneville--that I'd call elite. If either of those guys became available, yes, I'd consider replacing Bednar with one of them. But I don't think Gallant is THAT good. A lot of what made Vegas tick was partially due to him, yes, but it's also some insanely good luck (I'm pretty confident in saying there will never, ever be a career path like the one William Karlsson took in our lifetimes, if not ever again), some truly stupid GMs, and some savvy and ambitious moves by McPhee and McCrimmon...though I think they'll come to regret a couple of those in the coming years.

 

[Papa Francouz]

I'm pretty neutral on the assistants. Bennett deserves credit for installing a new power play system that, for the most part, works. I wish he and Bednar moved faster when things don't work--like when they started having MacKinnon pick different spots to fire his one-timers--but I'm largely okay with his job thus far, at least in that respect. The PK is largely mediocre, but I think that mostly has to do with Bednar's insistence on using guys who aren't good enough defensively to really secure the puck, and the system itself is just too passive and leads to way too many shooting lanes being open. Ironically, I thought the PK kicked it up a notch and was a lot more aggressive (until last night when the bottom fell out) but maybe that was mostly because Arizona's power play was so abysmal.

As for the defense, not sure what Sakic could have done differently. He had to rebuild it and there's no shortcut available unless he decides to trade one or both of Timmins or Byram. The one thing that's holding this defense back more than anything is EJ's complete and total inability to stay healthy. You can see how well they play when he's in the lineup and healthy, and how much they're struggling with him out. I figured Cole would more or less be a lost cause this season due to that double hip surgery. That was going to take a full year or more to recover from, and given his age he might not recover from it fully period. It's made a slow player slower and rendered his physical game ineffective. He doesn't have the movement or strength he usually does. Hopefully next season we'll see the guy that showed up in stretches a year ago. That guy was really good.

What needs to happen with the defense is continued evolution. Zadorov needs to go, Cole needs to get healthy and accept a 6/7 role, Graves needs to be put on a third pairing where he belongs, and Byram/Timmins hopefully each take top four roles. Also, one hopes both Girard and Makar take yet another step in their development, which I think is entirely possible. It's possible a trade or signing might be needed to further things along, I'm not sure. I don't think Pietrangelo is a good idea, but that's just MHO. As for EJ, well, I just hope dude can put together a reasonably good season, and then he's probably gone via buyout before the expansion draft.

Also, I don't think there's any real set "method" to team-building. You don't necessarily build from the back out or from the front in. You just take whatever the draft lottery gives you and go from there. If you focus on one position to start with you'll never build an effective team unless you run into a lot of luck. IMO a franchise center is the most imporant component of a Cup-winning team. That is even more important than a franchise defenseman.

As for Gallant, I'm still not sure he deserves quite as much credit as he's getting for Vegas. If he was that integral to the team's success, they'd be doing worse now instead of better under DeBoer. Again, he'll get another job and he'll probably do well (I'd laugh if he got the gig in Seattle, but it's very, very possible that he does) but there are only two coaches--Barry Trotz and Joel Quenneville--that I'd call elite. If either of those guys became available, yes, I'd consider replacing Bednar with one of them. But I don't think Gallant is THAT good. A lot of what made Vegas tick was partially due to him, yes, but it's also some insanely good luck (I'm pretty confident in saying there will never, ever be a career path like the one William Karlsson took in our lifetimes, if not ever again), some truly stupid GMs, and some savvy and ambitious moves by McPhee and McCrimmon...though I think they'll come to regret a couple of those in the coming years.

Ehh, I dunno. Bennett has been okay at best, but with our PP1 personnel they shouldn't have been so bad during this past regular season and they shouldn't have trouble scoring on a 5-on-3 opportunity. I'm not sold on the PK solution, either, but I'm fine with chalking that up to personnel instead of coaching. There aren't any elite two-way players on the Avs right now, but we do have some very good defensive forwards like Nuke and Nieto. Calvert is fearless and blocks shots, but I don't think he's a defensive wizard, or anything. Same with Bellemare.

No, I know the defense had to be rebuilt, but I do think it should have been addressed much earlier. As soon as Nate was picked in 2013 they should have been working tirelessly to get the defense upgraded. Roy was a hindrance, but even he liked Holden who I would argue is better than our current bottom-pairing players. EJ is obviously a problem, but it's a workable problem. I think Cole is done and despite a few good showings, he just doesn't match any of what this team is built on. The players Sakic should be targeting should be the puck movers, or at least make sure the guys he signs have even a modicum of ability on that front. Cole doesn't, Z doesn't, and Graves makes poor decisions somewhat frequently.

I do agree that the young players need more time to evolve as players, but with our forward corps in their prime they don't have time to mature like they need to. That's why I think Pietrangelo would be a good idea - he could be a top pairing stop gap right now and still remain very effective in a lesser role once Makar and Byram/Timmins/Girard are ready to take that role from him. Plus I don't think he would be blocking anyone if Sakic deals Zadorov and Graves this offseason. As for team building, I would disagree based on positional maturity and positional primes. Defensemen and goalies typically take longer to round into form than forwards, so drafting defensemen should happen first. It doesn't have to work that way, but it makes sense to me given historical trends.

It's really too bad Coach Q will never come to Denver due to stuff that happened a long time ago. As for Trotz, I'd kill to get him on the Avs but I think he'll be with NYI for a good, long while. He's basically their superstar, since that team doesn't have any outside of Barzal and since Trotz is the primary reason behind their turnaround and recent success.

 

[Pokecheque]

Ehh, I dunno. Bennett has been okay at best, but with our PP1 personnel they shouldn't have been so bad during this past regular season and they shouldn't have trouble scoring on a 5-on-3 opportunity. I'm not sold on the PK solution, either, but I'm fine with chalking that up to personnel instead of coaching. There aren't any elite two-way players on the Avs right now, but we do have some very good defensive forwards like Nuke and Nieto. Calvert is fearless and blocks shots, but I don't think he's a defensive wizard, or anything. Same with Bellemare.

No, I know the defense had to be rebuilt, but I do think it should have been addressed much earlier. As soon as Nate was picked in 2013 they should have been working tirelessly to get the defense upgraded. Roy was a hindrance, but even he liked Holden who I would argue is better than our current bottom-pairing players. EJ is obviously a problem, but it's a workable problem. I think Cole is done and despite a few good showings, he just doesn't match any of what this team is built on. The players Sakic should be targeting should be the puck movers, or at least make sure the guys he signs have even a modicum of ability on that front. Cole doesn't, Z doesn't, and Graves makes poor decisions somewhat frequently.

I do agree that the young players need more time to evolve as players, but with our forward corps in their prime they don't have time to mature like they need to. That's why I think Pietrangelo would be a good idea - he could be a top pairing stop gap right now and still remain very effective in a lesser role once Makar and Byram/Timmins/Girard are ready to take that role from him. Plus I don't think he would be blocking anyone if Sakic deals Zadorov and Graves this offseason. As for team building, I would disagree based on positional maturity and positional primes. Defensemen and goalies typically take longer to round into form than forwards, so drafting defensemen should happen first. It doesn't have to work that way, but it makes sense to me given historical trends.

It's really too bad Coach Q will never come to Denver due to stuff that happened a long time ago. As for Trotz, I'd kill to get him on the Avs but I think he'll be with NYI for a good, long while. He's basically their superstar, since that team doesn't have any outside of Barzal and since Trotz is the primary reason behind their turnaround and recent success.

Ohhhhhhh no no no no. Not even remotely on the same page as you with Holden. But I've made no secret that I absolutely hate everything about his game, and have so for years. His defensive acumen was about the same as Guenin, it just so happened that he kinda/sorta made up for it with the occasional goal. Cole on his best day is far better than Holden. Cole on his worst...well, that can be argued. I still don't miss Holden on this team one bit. Avs never, ever should've signed him to that knee-jerk extension in 2014. Even as cheap as it was, it was a deal that didn't pan out.

In the end, Cole may have been a mistake signing. It happens. Not everything Super Joe touches turns to gold. I see why they brought him in, it's just that the double hip surgery took a bottom pairing guy and hobbled him even further.

Also, the whole "defensemen and goalies take longer to develop" thing is largely a myth. Carter Hart is proving that wrong as we speak. More teams should quit taking 7-10 goddamned years to bring their goalies into the NHL. They should be here by 25, if not earlier. Same with defensemen. NHL organizations are starting to quit being so risk-averse now that it's been determined that a player's prime years are much sooner than originally thought.

I'm okay with Pietrangelo coming aboard, but I'm wary of the term. I just don't think a team has to put themselves in cap hell to win it all. And if he's looking for a megadeal that pays him at a high AAV until he's 37, I'd tell him to go pound sand.

As for the PK, actually, they have very good forwards for it. You're kinda selling Calvert, Nieto, and Bellemare short. They're all three very good defensive forwards. Compher is also good, when he's on his game, as a SH scoring threat. They are not the problem. The problem is on the back end. Bednar wants to use his biggest and most defensive-minded guys for the PK and none of them are fast enough or savvy enough skill-wise to get to the puck and clear it out. The coaching job that has been done with Graves on the PK is the one and only thing I absolutely detest with this staff in terms of their performance. When he first arrived, Graves went charging into the corners, knocking guys off the puck and clearing it with ease. He was actually really good. Since then, they told him he's gotta float around and block shots, which he absolutely cannot do. The only guy worse than him at blocking shots is Zadorov, who also should just be told to go around and knock the living slobber outta guys. I don't like the system, but what they're teaching the d-men to do is way too passive, and runs counter to how aggressive this team works in every other facet.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Ohhhhhhh no no no no. Not even remotely on the same page as you with Holden. But I've made no secret that I absolutely hate everything about his game, and have so for years. His defensive acumen was about the same as Guenin, it just so happened that he kinda/sorta made up for it with the occasional goal. Cole on his best day is far better than Holden. Cole on his worst...well, that can be argued. I still don't miss Holden on this team one bit. Avs never, ever should've signed him to that knee-jerk extension in 2014. Even as cheap as it was, it was a deal that didn't pan out.

In the end, Cole may have been a mistake signing. It happens. Not everything Super Joe touches turns to gold. I see why they brought him in, it's just that the double hip surgery took a bottom pairing guy and hobbled him even further.

Also, the whole "defensemen and goalies take longer to develop" thing is largely a myth. Carter Hart is proving that wrong as we speak. More teams should quit taking 7-10 goddamned years to bring their goalies into the NHL. They should be here by 25, if not earlier. Same with defensemen. NHL organizations are starting to quit being so risk-averse now that it's been determined that a player's prime years are much sooner than originally thought.

I'm okay with Pietrangelo coming aboard, but I'm wary of the term. I just don't think a team has to put themselves in cap hell to win it all. And if he's looking for a megadeal that pays him at a high AAV until he's 37, I'd tell him to go pound sand.

As for the PK, actually, they have very good forwards for it. You're kinda selling Calvert, Nieto, and Bellemare short. They're all three very good defensive forwards. Compher is also good, when he's on his game, as a SH scoring threat. They are not the problem. The problem is on the back end. Bednar wants to use his biggest and most defensive-minded guys for the PK and none of them are fast enough or savvy enough skill-wise to get to the puck and clear it out. The coaching job that has been done with Graves on the PK is the one and only thing I absolutely detest with this staff in terms of their performance. When he first arrived, Graves went charging into the corners, knocking guys off the puck and clearing it with ease. He was actually really good. Since then, they told him he's gotta float around and block shots, which he absolutely cannot do. The only guy worse than him at blocking shots is Zadorov, who also should just be told to go around and knock the living slobber outta guys. I don't like the system, but what they're teaching the d-men to do is way too passive, and runs counter to how aggressive this team works in every other facet.

Ehh, I don't know if I can agree with that. Holden was never good defensively, but he was decent at moving the puck. More so than Cole, at least, who at this point in time is basically there to block shots and do nothing else. I certainly don't miss Holden, but I maintain that he's a better player than Zadorov and Cole are currently. I can forgive the Cole signing, but Cole never fit into the team identity Sakic was building and that's why I don't understand the signing. He was never a good puck mover and provided little offense. He was never a great skater, and he got a lot of money from the Avs to not be a top-4 guy. I guess they wanted him for leadership, but I feel like he's hurting the team more than helping it these days.

I don't think the development of goalies and defensemen is a myth. Every once in a while you'll get a Carter Hart or a Miro Heiskanen, but those cases are rare. Solving the D corps and goalie first is playing the averages, plus their primes are typically later so it only makes sense to me to build from the back out. We're running into an issue with Nate's prime being now and waiting for the rest of the team to catch up. I feel like taking defensemen first would nullify that issue, but the Avs were never going to be able to build through the draft due to bad scouting and bad drafting outside of the top-10. I think Sakic has salvaged what he could out of the mess that was left for him, but I think the Jost pick will haunt this team for a while.

As for Pietrangelo, I can't see him taking anything but a long-term, high-dollar deal. I still don't see him leaving St. Louis, but if he did I'd bring him on super fast. The Avs are in a position to add a Hall or Pietrangelo this summer and not be faced with too much in the way of cap problems in the future, and I think they need to take the risk and sign one of them. The time to win is now, and I hope Joe realizes that, too.

I think the PK forwards are passable, but not elite. Either that, or the system they're having them run is pretty bad. Agreed on the defensemen, though, but I will say I'd rather have the big do-nothing defensemen playing on the PK instead of getting minutes at even strength. They've been hurting the team at even strength more than they're hurting it on the PK, in my opinion. Pietrangelo can probably play both pretty well

(God, I'm going to get my hopes up and see them dashed and it's going to be nobody's fault but my own.)

 

[Pokecheque]

Ehh, I don't know if I can agree with that. Holden was never good defensively, but he was decent at moving the puck. More so than Cole, at least, who at this point in time is basically there to block shots and do nothing else. I certainly don't miss Holden, but I maintain that he's a better player than Zadorov and Cole are currently. I can forgive the Cole signing, but Cole never fit into the team identity Sakic was building and that's why I don't understand the signing. He was never a good puck mover and provided little offense. He was never a great skater, and he got a lot of money from the Avs to not be a top-4 guy. I guess they wanted him for leadership, but I feel like he's hurting the team more than helping it these days.

I don't think the development of goalies and defensemen is a myth. Every once in a while you'll get a Carter Hart or a Miro Heiskanen, but those cases are rare. Solving the D corps and goalie first is playing the averages, plus their primes are typically later so it only makes sense to me to build from the back out. We're running into an issue with Nate's prime being now and waiting for the rest of the team to catch up. I feel like taking defensemen first would nullify that issue, but the Avs were never going to be able to build through the draft due to bad scouting and bad drafting outside of the top-10. I think Sakic has salvaged what he could out of the mess that was left for him, but I think the Jost pick will haunt this team for a while.

As for Pietrangelo, I can't see him taking anything but a long-term, high-dollar deal. I still don't see him leaving St. Louis, but if he did I'd bring him on super fast. The Avs are in a position to add a Hall or Pietrangelo this summer and not be faced with too much in the way of cap problems in the future, and I think they need to take the risk and sign one of them. The time to win is now, and I hope Joe realizes that, too.

I think the PK forwards are passable, but not elite. Either that, or the system they're having them run is pretty bad. Agreed on the defensemen, though, but I will say I'd rather have the big do-nothing defensemen playing on the PK instead of getting minutes at even strength. They've been hurting the team at even strength more than they're hurting it on the PK, in my opinion. Pietrangelo can probably play both pretty well

(God, I'm going to get my hopes up and see them dashed and it's going to be nobody's fault but my own.)

I dunno...what's an elite PK forward? Certainly upper echelon two-way players like Kevin Hayes, Ryan O'Reilly, and Sasha Barkov are deadly on the PK, but beyond that, I'm not sure what an "elite PK forward is." A guy like Michael Grabner got a rep as a penalty slayer, mostly because he skates really fast and creates a lot of breakaway opportunities, but he's pretty one-dimensional beyond that, and I didn't even notice him in the playoff series against the Avs, even when the Avs were on the power play. Did he even play? I swear he did.

But anyway, my point is that most elite PKs are elite because of the system and the fact that they're not afraid of using top personnel on the back end. I get why Bednar is super-reluctant to use some of his better players to help kill penalties (I remember he sent out MacKinnon for, like, the final 5 seconds of a PK and he nearly got seriously injured blocking a shot) but he could be a little less rigid there. Also, the system where they send the one forward up the middle and everyone else collapses inward, is just not conducive to blocking passing lanes and relies WAY too much on shot-blocking. The best PKs out there are far more aggressive and seek to expand the box on the opposition. Why, as an Avs fan, I have to keep putting up such passive penalty killing every year, no matter who the goddamned coach is, really irritates me. Put in a more aggressive system and use better defenders than Graves, Zadorov, and Cole, and I think this team could kill penalties at a top-10 clip where they don't have to rely so much on the goaltender bailing them out every time.

Are there better third pairings than Zadorov-Cole? Well...yeah, of course there are. Holden is better offensively than either. Defensively though, unless there's been a sea change in his defensive game he used to try to stand someone up on one of the blue lines, and if he failed to lower the big hit, he'd get burned badly. For a big guy he also skates pretty well, but I used to think he was slow because he got caught up ice all the time and had to scramble to get back. I was just never a fan of his game, and thought from the get-go that his contract extension was way too soon. They could've waited one more season, he would've regressed, and they could've signed him for even cheaper if they wanted. As far as Cole goes, yeah, I think Sakic regrets that move. At the time I kinda understood what they were going for when they signed him--add a physical defenseman who's won multiple Cups to the lineup. Personality-wise he's a fantastic addition, but I've always hated the good-in-the-room types of signings. He's only got one year left on it, and he'll likely be the 6/7 guy (hope to God he's fully healthy, which he isn't now and hasn't been all season) so it's not a great signing but it could've been far worse.

It may be that Sakic has to finally be more aggressive this offseason, and we'll see what he does. It's finally time to really put some of that cap room to good use and see if they can make an impactful addition or two, whether through trade or free agency. I just hope it doesn't have to be one of these stupid contracts that you know will only be good for like 2 years and the other 5 are just him playing out the string.

I'll just close by saying that yeah, I do think (and I'm not the only one who thinks this) the goalie/defenseman development thing is indeed a myth. We see forwards sometimes take a while to make it to the big show too. The only thing that should hold up a d-man or goalie vs. a forward is simply opportunity. There are 113 forward spots on any given NHL roster, only 7 defenders, and 2 slots for goalies. Where I think the myth comes from is the room for error forwards are allowed vs. those other two positions. Forward make a big mistake it usually doesn't end up in the net. There's a far greater chance of that happening with the latter two positions. Even so, I don't think you have to bring them along as slowly as hockey culture appears to deem necessary. Even Philly didn't want to use Carter Hart at such a young age--their hand finally got forced after the string of ineffectual veterans and minor leaguers they had all got hurt. Just try it out FFS, it's not that big a deal. Sometimes, Connor McDavid shows up and ventilates the guy, sometimes he gets a win, sometimes he may prove to be a legit starter at the ripe old age of 21. Also, and I've said this before, you can't really "ruin" a prospect. He either has NHL talent or he doesn't. An organization can only speed up or hamper his development.

 

[Papa Francouz]

I dunno...what's an elite PK forward? Certainly upper echelon two-way players like Kevin Hayes, Ryan O'Reilly, and Sasha Barkov are deadly on the PK, but beyond that, I'm not sure what an "elite PK forward is." A guy like Michael Grabner got a rep as a penalty slayer, mostly because he skates really fast and creates a lot of breakaway opportunities, but he's pretty one-dimensional beyond that, and I didn't even notice him in the playoff series against the Avs, even when the Avs were on the power play. Did he even play? I swear he did.

But anyway, my point is that most elite PKs are elite because of the system and the fact that they're not afraid of using top personnel on the back end. I get why Bednar is super-reluctant to use some of his better players to help kill penalties (I remember he sent out MacKinnon for, like, the final 5 seconds of a PK and he nearly got seriously injured blocking a shot) but he could be a little less rigid there. Also, the system where they send the one forward up the middle and everyone else collapses inward, is just not conducive to blocking passing lanes and relies WAY too much on shot-blocking. The best PKs out there are far more aggressive and seek to expand the box on the opposition. Why, as an Avs fan, I have to keep putting up such passive penalty killing every year, no matter who the goddamned coach is, really irritates me. Put in a more aggressive system and use better defenders than Graves, Zadorov, and Cole, and I think this team could kill penalties at a top-10 clip where they don't have to rely so much on the goaltender bailing them out every time.

Are there better third pairings than Zadorov-Cole? Well...yeah, of course there are. Holden is better offensively than either. Defensively though, unless there's been a sea change in his defensive game he used to try to stand someone up on one of the blue lines, and if he failed to lower the big hit, he'd get burned badly. For a big guy he also skates pretty well, but I used to think he was slow because he got caught up ice all the time and had to scramble to get back. I was just never a fan of his game, and thought from the get-go that his contract extension was way too soon. They could've waited one more season, he would've regressed, and they could've signed him for even cheaper if they wanted. As far as Cole goes, yeah, I think Sakic regrets that move. At the time I kinda understood what they were going for when they signed him--add a physical defenseman who's won multiple Cups to the lineup. Personality-wise he's a fantastic addition, but I've always hated the good-in-the-room types of signings. He's only got one year left on it, and he'll likely be the 6/7 guy (hope to God he's fully healthy, which he isn't now and hasn't been all season) so it's not a great signing but it could've been far worse.

It may be that Sakic has to finally be more aggressive this offseason, and we'll see what he does. It's finally time to really put some of that cap room to good use and see if they can make an impactful addition or two, whether through trade or free agency. I just hope it doesn't have to be one of these stupid contracts that you know will only be good for like 2 years and the other 5 are just him playing out the string.

I'll just close by saying that yeah, I do think (and I'm not the only one who thinks this) the goalie/defenseman development thing is indeed a myth. We see forwards sometimes take a while to make it to the big show too. The only thing that should hold up a d-man or goalie vs. a forward is simply opportunity. There are 113 forward spots on any given NHL roster, only 7 defenders, and 2 slots for goalies. Where I think the myth comes from is the room for error forwards are allowed vs. those other two positions. Forward make a big mistake it usually doesn't end up in the net. There's a far greater chance of that happening with the latter two positions. Even so, I don't think you have to bring them along as slowly as hockey culture appears to deem necessary. Even Philly didn't want to use Carter Hart at such a young age--their hand finally got forced after the string of ineffectual veterans and minor leaguers they had all got hurt. Just try it out FFS, it's not that big a deal. Sometimes, Connor McDavid shows up and ventilates the guy, sometimes he gets a win, sometimes he may prove to be a legit starter at the ripe old age of 21. Also, and I've said this before, you can't really "ruin" a prospect. He either has NHL talent or he doesn't. An organization can only speed up or hamper his development.

Yeah, the Selke guys would be elite PKers. I'd say any 4th liners that can pin guys against the boards to gain possession would be elite at PKing. Basically any forward that can consistently take away the puck from the other team. Then you have the speed players like Grabner (and Compher, at times) that keep the point guys on the PP on their heels and less focused on the PP that I would consider elite. Again, I think guys like Calvert, Bellemare, and Nieto are all passable to decent, but I wouldn't say they're good since they don't excel at any of the elements of PKing that I mentioned. They get by on effort because they have no end to the effort they put in during a game. I'm still trying to figure out if it's the system or the personnel that are making the PK subpar, but I don't think I'll ever know for certain since I'm not a coach and I'm not privy to what the Avs are doing behind closed doors. Like you said, it's probably the system as well as the players that are the problem.

As for Holden, I'd say he's probably even with Z and Cole defensively, but like you said he's better offensively. There are definitely better options out there for the bottom-pairing, and I'm hoping Sakic realizes that this offseason. Either let the kids play, or bring in a true defensive defensemen that does more than block shots or hits people. Or bring in someone that would slot higher up in the lineup so it pushes guys down and allows the talented depth to expose other teams. I agree that the Cole signing could have been worse, but I'm worried Joe hasn't learned from it and might sign another Cole-type player once Cole's deal is up. Hopefully he's too tight against the cap at that point to make a move like that, or the defense is too crowded with good players to make him think he needs to do something like that.

I'm glad we agree on the cap space issue. It's there to be used, especially when you're competing, and right now the Avs are competing and have a lot of cap space to be used. It will require some savvy cap navigation, but with how Sakic and the management team has set up the Avs for the future I'm confident they would be able to throw another big contract into the mix and juggle it alongside the upcoming extensions.

As for the goalie/defensemen development debate, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one. I agree that some players are ready sooner than their position would traditionally dictate, but there's a mental side to the game that can't be overlooked. If you throw a kid into the NHL when he isn't ready to face NHL competition and NHL media coverage, you can ruin his development. I do agree that prospects either have NHL talent or they don't, but sometimes that talent is hidden behind a weak mindset, or a mindset that's overly confident. In these instances, the player could beat themselves up so much they don't recover, or their confidence could be shattered and they could never recover. With defensemen and goalies having such a huge responsibility on the ice, I do think this plays into their development. Then again, some guys are so steady mentally that these mistakes wouldn't hamper their development at all. It's really a toss-up, but I think it's better to play it safe with defensemen and goalies than the opposite.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah, the Selke guys would be elite PKers. I'd say any 4th liners that can pin guys against the boards to gain possession would be elite at PKing. Basically any forward that can consistently take away the puck from the other team. Then you have the speed players like Grabner (and Compher, at times) that keep the point guys on the PP on their heels and less focused on the PP that I would consider elite. Again, I think guys like Calvert, Bellemare, and Nieto are all passable to decent, but I wouldn't say they're good since they don't excel at any of the elements of PKing that I mentioned. They get by on effort because they have no end to the effort they put in during a game. I'm still trying to figure out if it's the system or the personnel that are making the PK subpar, but I don't think I'll ever know for certain since I'm not a coach and I'm not privy to what the Avs are doing behind closed doors. Like you said, it's probably the system as well as the players that are the problem.

As for Holden, I'd say he's probably even with Z and Cole defensively, but like you said he's better offensively. There are definitely better options out there for the bottom-pairing, and I'm hoping Sakic realizes that this offseason. Either let the kids play, or bring in a true defensive defensemen that does more than block shots or hits people. Or bring in someone that would slot higher up in the lineup so it pushes guys down and allows the talented depth to expose other teams. I agree that the Cole signing could have been worse, but I'm worried Joe hasn't learned from it and might sign another Cole-type player once Cole's deal is up. Hopefully he's too tight against the cap at that point to make a move like that, or the defense is too crowded with good players to make him think he needs to do something like that.

I'm glad we agree on the cap space issue. It's there to be used, especially when you're competing, and right now the Avs are competing and have a lot of cap space to be used. It will require some savvy cap navigation, but with how Sakic and the management team has set up the Avs for the future I'm confident they would be able to throw another big contract into the mix and juggle it alongside the upcoming extensions.

As for the goalie/defensemen development debate, we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one. I agree that some players are ready sooner than their position would traditionally dictate, but there's a mental side to the game that can't be overlooked. If you throw a kid into the NHL when he isn't ready to face NHL competition and NHL media coverage, you can ruin his development. I do agree that prospects either have NHL talent or they don't, but sometimes that talent is hidden behind a weak mindset, or a mindset that's overly confident. In these instances, the player could beat themselves up so much they don't recover, or their confidence could be shattered and they could never recover. With defensemen and goalies having such a huge responsibility on the ice, I do think this plays into their development. Then again, some guys are so steady mentally that these mistakes wouldn't hamper their development at all. It's really a toss-up, but I think it's better to play it safe with defensemen and goalies than the opposite.

Nah, you can't ruin his development. If he's meant to be an NHL player, he will be an NHL player. Only injuries will derail a NHL career. Conversely, if he ain't good enough, no amount of development time will magically turn him into an NHL player. Not saying throw all the 18-year-olds you can into the fire, just saying you don't have to put EVERY SINGLE goalie prospect through multiple years of minor league work, then a couple more as a backup before you finally give him the stupid reins. Same goes with defensemen. As others have said many times, development isn't linear. Ryan Graves needed a lot more minor league time than Cale Makar's zero. If a guy looks ready and the need/opportunity is there, don't waste your time with some talentless plug. It doesn't need to be some huge blanket where every single player gets treated the same way developmentally.

As for PKers, the current system doesn't allow for them to really box out the point shooters like they should. I'd love for some big body to knock guys like Brent Burns around, but that's not a personnel issue per se.

And I'm not even touching that "Holden is better than Z defensively" because...that's just not true.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Nah, you can't ruin his development. If he's meant to be an NHL player, he will be an NHL player. Only injuries will derail a NHL career. Conversely, if he ain't good enough, no amount of development time will magically turn him into an NHL player. Not saying throw all the 18-year-olds you can into the fire, just saying you don't have to put EVERY SINGLE goalie prospect through multiple years of minor league work, then a couple more as a backup before you finally give him the stupid reins. Same goes with defensemen. As others have said many times, development isn't linear. Ryan Graves needed a lot more minor league time than Cale Makar's zero. If a guy looks ready and the need/opportunity is there, don't waste your time with some talentless plug. It doesn't need to be some huge blanket where every single player gets treated the same way developmentally.

As for PKers, the current system doesn't allow for them to really box out the point shooters like they should. I'd love for some big body to knock guys like Brent Burns around, but that's not a personnel issue per se.

And I'm not even touching that "Holden is better than Z defensively" because...that's just not true.

I don't agree with that. I think a young player could lose confidence so much that he never succeeds in the NHL despite having the skillset to do so. And I also disagree with a player not being able to improve to a NHL-level player. Some guys work on their skating, or their shot, or their defensive game and carve out a NHL role. Maybe not a long career, but there have been guys who have made a lot of money by improving a single skill to the point of it being NHL caliber. As for the "patience at any cost" mindset a lot of GMs and coaches have, I won't argue against abolishing that. It does harm players and teams at times, but some players need it that approach while others don't. It really comes down to the management and coaching personnel and whether or not they embrace the mindset you're advocating for.

I'll take your word on your PK assessment. I don't understand the intricacies of PK systems enough to know what would and wouldn't work, and whether or not the current personnel would be capable of implementing a different type of structure to a successful degree. I'm going to stick by my assertion that the forwards on the PK aren't good enough along the boards to be really good to elite on the PK.

As for Holden, maybe I'm misremembering his time on the team, but he seemed to be prone to fewer and less volatile mental lapses than Z. I don't think Zadorov has ever been that good defensively, personally, but his occasional big hit added an element to the Avs that isn't present in any other player. Other than that, Z and Holden are pretty interchangeable to me.

 

[Pokecheque]

I don't agree with that. I think a young player could lose confidence so much that he never succeeds in the NHL despite having the skillset to do so. And I also disagree with a player not being able to improve to a NHL-level player. Some guys work on their skating, or their shot, or their defensive game and carve out a NHL role. Maybe not a long career, but there have been guys who have made a lot of money by improving a single skill to the point of it being NHL caliber. As for the "patience at any cost" mindset a lot of GMs and coaches have, I won't argue against abolishing that. It does harm players and teams at times, but some players need it that approach while others don't. It really comes down to the management and coaching personnel and whether or not they embrace the mindset you're advocating for.

I'll take your word on your PK assessment. I don't understand the intricacies of PK systems enough to know what would and wouldn't work, and whether or not the current personnel would be capable of implementing a different type of structure to a successful degree. I'm going to stick by my assertion that the forwards on the PK aren't good enough along the boards to be really good to elite on the PK.

As for Holden, maybe I'm misremembering his time on the team, but he seemed to be prone to fewer and less volatile mental lapses than Z. I don't think Zadorov has ever been that good defensively, personally, but his occasional big hit added an element to the Avs that isn't present in any other player. Other than that, Z and Holden are pretty interchangeable to me.

Nikita Zadorov is an elite shutdown defenseman in terms of zone entries, neutral zone defense, and can zero in on the opposition's best player and completely shut him down. Please don't tell me that you think Nick frickin' Holden has a prayer of shutting down Connor McDavid, I'll just tell you you're wrong. Z not only can do that, he did. Where Z's defensive game breaks down is in the defensive zone when he has to anticipate passing plays. He just...doesn't have the hockey sense to do that. This is why I detest them trying to use him as a shot blocker. Just let him loose--tell him to hit everything in sight in the d-zone (so long as he plays the puck first if available) and prevent players from making clean entries. Even then I think he's limited and prone to lazy mistakes. But Holden still makes some egregious errors, and IMO his offensive game doesn't really make up for those lapses. He also IMO isn't great at blocking shots--I thought he was a disaster on the PK, almost as bad as Z (though Z is worse, I'll concede that). Don't know if he has gotten better in ensuing years but I doubt it's been a huge improvement, if any.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Nikita Zadorov is an elite shutdown defenseman in terms of zone entries, neutral zone defense, and can zero in on the opposition's best player and completely shut him down. Please don't tell me that you think Nick frickin' Holden has a prayer of shutting down Connor McDavid, I'll just tell you you're wrong. Z not only can do that, he did. Where Z's defensive game breaks down is in the defensive zone when he has to anticipate passing plays. He just...doesn't have the hockey sense to do that. This is why I detest them trying to use him as a shot blocker. Just let him loose--tell him to hit everything in sight in the d-zone (so long as he plays the puck first if available) and prevent players from making clean entries. Even then I think he's limited and prone to lazy mistakes. But Holden still makes some egregious errors, and IMO his offensive game doesn't really make up for those lapses. He also IMO isn't great at blocking shots--I thought he was a disaster on the PK, almost as bad as Z (though Z is worse, I'll concede that). Don't know if he has gotten better in ensuing years but I doubt it's been a huge improvement, if any.

I'll never argue that Holden is a better one-on-one defenseman than Zadorov, but Holden seems to thrive in a system better than Zadorov ever has. (And as an aside, I think Z's recent poor play made me forget about his great single-target shutdown ability.) I have to disagree with letting him loose in the D zone because that directly led to a goal against in game 1 of the Dallas series. Z goes for the hit, loses his man, and then the puck is in the back of the net; this isn't an uncommon occurrence, but it is keyed in on more during the playoffs.

This discussion has evolved into a discussion about Zadorov and Nick Holden, and I'm not particularly enthusiastic about either player, so I'm going to bow out after this reply. I do appreciate the candid discussion, though, despite our differences in opinion.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Blog wars in here,