Confirmed with Link: Jimmy Vesey Signs with Rangers - MOD WARNING # 318

[Over the volcano]

Wish him all the best except when he's playing against the bruins - really hope he stinks up the joint on those nights.

 

[the overrated]

Marchand: better
Beleskey: different
Heinen: better at the same age
Vatrano: better at the same age
Bjork: better at same age
Donato: equal/better
Gabrielle: better? (Different league)

Maybe not 7, but you could probably make an argument for 6 if you were so inclined.

Edit: Forgot DeBrusk, guess you could make an argument for 7.

If Vesey was going to be, at best, the 7th or 8th best LW in the organization, why did Boston even bother pursuing him? Especially if guarantees of playing time were part of the pitch - it sounds like he'd have been lucky to get any ice time in Providence, let alone in Boston.

I can see the "it's a free asset, why not?" argument coming, but if the guy was going to be so redundant and so far down the depth chart, why bother wasting the time & energy in pursuing him, and why bother wasting a contract spot on him?

It seems to me that Sweeney should've been smart enough to tell the FO & the organization that Vesey wasn't worth it, and that they already had better options in-house, and let the other teams chase him.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Marchand: better
Beleskey: different
Heinen: better at the same age
Vatrano: better at the same age
Bjork: better at same age
Donato: equal/better
Gabrielle: better? (Different league)

Maybe not 7, but you could probably make an argument for 6 if you were so inclined.

Edit: Forgot DeBrusk, guess you could make an argument for 7.

Wow Joe, great job. You convinced me. What an idiot Don Sweeney and Cam Neely were for wasting so much time and energy on this kid who isn't as good as Bjork. I mean to offer a valuable max rookie contract, a roster spot on the 50 limit, top 6 minutes....... that kind of time, effort, resources on a guy who MIGHT be the 9th best LW on the team. Wow what a dolt. I totally agree with you that this kind of incompetence should cost him his job.

 

[Fonzerelli]

If Vesey was going to be, at best, the 7th or 8th best LW in the organization, why did Boston even bother pursuing him? Especially if guarantees of playing time were part of the pitch.

Because he is ready right now. He's 23 years old and a plug-n-play, no-risk investment. Could always ship him down to Providence if he stunk it up real bad. Many of the better LW prospects in our system (Bjork, Gabrielle, DeBrusk) won't be ready for a couple years or more. Marchand, Beleskey and Vatrano are better right now, but Vatrano can also play off wing. Many believe Heinen to be better, but he also plays RW and has yet to actually prove himself in the pro game. So Vesey is a low cost fit right now, a possible hidden jackpot and at worst, a bridge until the better LW prospects are ready to step in.

NOTE: Sorry to keep leaving out Chelarik. Don't know enough about him or the european leagues he played in. So, no offense to Chelarik fans. Looking forward to watching him with the P-Bruins.

 

[Dr Quincy]

NHLe is a useful tool and it can't be dismissed. But it's value is in looking at large groups of players/leagues and putting those numbers in context. It's not as useful to make definitive statements like "This players NHLe year was better than that one's, so he's a better prospect." We wouldn't need NHLe to do that. We could just look at points or points per game. But clearly more than that goes into it.

Don't believe me? Let's go to the 2003 draft. 2 players. Same age. Same Canadian JR league. One put up 76 pts in 65 games. The other put up 73 pts in 70 games. NHLe would say they were fairly similar prospects with the 1st player maybe being slightly better.

Except the 2nd player is Patrice Bergeron and the 1st player is someone named Louis-Phillipe Martin.

Again, I'm not saying that NHLe isn't useful. It is, and I've used it. But to say, "Well these players had better NHLe's this year, or at a similar age as Vesey (or anyone else)" is using a snapshot to make a grand pronouncement.

Oh, while I'm at it: Does anyone know the NHL Equivalency stats for this year for Senyshyn and Debrusk compared to Travis Konecny and Matt Barzal... I mean since this stat tells us so much, I"m just wondering what it says about those players..... or is it no longer a good tool?

 

[Fenway]

Been back home for a few hours and made some some calls.

The main reason Jimmy signed with New York goes back many many years. If you are 45 or older this music will remind you of a radio show that was legendary before sports radio existed

https://youtu.be/J55xnFE0Ibo?t=91

It goes back to when Jacobs sued the old WEEI because of something said on that show.

I wish the kid the best - I think he got horrible advice.

 

[Fonzerelli]

NHLe is a useful tool and it can't be dismissed. But it's value is in looking at large groups of players/leagues and putting those numbers in context. It's not as useful to make definitive statements like "This players NHLe year was better than that one's, so he's a better prospect." We wouldn't need NHLe to do that. We could just look at points or points per game. But clearly more than that goes into it.

There is more that needs to go into it. Specifically, a true NHLE arrived at using non-power play points significantly increases the accuracy. When you do that, our prospects go through the roof and leave Vesey even further in the dust.

Again, I'm not saying that NHLe isn't useful. It is, and I've used it. But to say, "Well these players had better NHLe's this year, or at a similar age as Vesey (or anyone else)" is using a snapshot to make a grand pronouncement.

I don't know about "grand pronouncement". It's a simple projection which has proven to be much more accurate than the eye test. The only "grand pronouncement" one can make - and I did - is that our prospects PROJECT to be better and some already are. I guess is projections are grand, then ok. I think what is the even more of a grand (and unfounded) projection, is those projecting Vesey as some elite top 6 talent, which flies in the face of logic, reason and historical performance.

Oh, while I'm at it: Does anyone know the NHL Equivalency stats for this year for Senyshyn and Debrusk compared to Travis Konecny and Matt Barzal... I mean since this stat tells us so much, I"m just wondering what it says about those players..... or is it no longer a good tool?

Senyshyn was a top 10 talent based on true NHLE. DeBrusk and Gabrielle were both first round rated talents based on NHLE. It was a good tool then and it's a good tool now.

That is why I look at players Even production for draft.

That is why Zach Sensyshyn should be a top 10 pick!
Debrusk is an elite EVG scorer.
Lauzon is the 4th best EVEN producing D
Jesse Gabrielle reflects to be a top 30 Player.

http://lowetide.ca/2015/07/04/another-look-at-nhles/

 

[Dr Quincy]

There is more that needs to go into it. Specifically, a true NHLE arrived at using non-power play points significantly increases the accuracy. When you do that, our prospects go through the roof and leave Vesey even further in the dust.



I don't know about "grand pronouncement". It's a simple projection which has proven to be much more accurate than the eye test. The only "grand pronouncement" one can make - and I did - is that our prospects PROJECT to be better and some already are. I guess is projections are grand, then ok. I think what is the even more of a grand (and unfounded) projection, is those projecting Vesey as some elite top 6 talent, which flies in the face of logic, reason and historical performance.



Senyshyn was a top 10 talent based on true NHLE. DeBrusk and Gabrielle were both first round rated talents based on NHLE. It was a good tool then and it's a good tool now.

Thanks for the link. Interesting stuff, but if you noticed I did say what were the NHLe's for those guys THIS year (as Barzal spend much of the time hurt) AND I believe (not sure if you agree) that Draft +1 years are more predictive(in general) than draft years as it's one more year closer to the NHL.

EDITED: Nevermind, read more on the site and answered my own questions

 

[Ice Nine]

Marchand: better
Beleskey: different
Heinen: better at the same age
Vatrano: better at the same age
Bjork: better at same age
Donato: equal/better
Gabrielle: better? (Different league)

Maybe not 7, but you could probably make an argument for 6 if you were so inclined.

Edit: Forgot DeBrusk, guess you could make an argument for 7.

All 8 are already, or are projected to be better. Not to mention, most are more versatile, can play up and down the lineup and/or different positions.

If we have 5 or 6 young players who are "better" or "project to be better", then why would Don Sweeney promise Vesey, as part of his pitch, that he'd have a lock on a top 6 role, playing LW beside Krejci?

Why would a GM *ever* promise such a thing, if you are right that there are multiples of players already in the organization who are "better" and "more versatile"?

He'd have to be out to lunch, if so. Well, actually, not if an alternative and frankly much more likely scenario, is true-- that Sweeney actually assessed that Vesey is better than other young LW prospects we currently have, and so he made that promise. And Vesey went elsewhere, and it sucks, but we don't need to boo him or pretend we have countless better players on our team, because we really don't.

In short, as much as I respect you both as posters, I'll go with Sweeney's judgment on this one.

 

[Over the volcano]

If we have 7 or 8 players who are "better" or "project to be better", then why would Don Sweeney promise Vesey, as part of his pitch, that he'd have a lock on a top 6 role, playing LW beside Krejci?

Why would a GM *ever* promise such a thing, if you are right that there are multiples of players already in the organization who are "better" and "more versatile"?

Well, an alternative scenario, and frankly much more likely, is Sweeney actually assessed that Vesey is better than other young LW prospects we currently have, and so he made that promise. And Vesey went elsewhere, and it sucks, but we don't need to boo him or pretend we have countless better players on our team, because we really don't.

In short, as much as I respect you both as posters, I'll go with Sweeney's judgment on this one.

Vesey could honestly be figured in on a top six role next year because vatrano Heinen and the rest of the batch are best off given a little more time before being expected/depended on making the jump full time. Vesey at 23 as a couple years on the rest assuming belesky/pasta get moved over to the right side.

 

[LSCII]

I don't know why no one ever answered you here, but that take on Beleskey vs Vesey is completely wrong because they're entirely different situations.

You can make that comparison with the majority of UFA's we hit or miss out on, but Vesey was not an ordinary UFA. Money and term are a major part of all UFA signings, but neither of those were even applicable in Vesey's case. For him, it was simply choosing whatever he wanted, and the fact is there were just some things Boston could not offer him, like for example, the fact that NY was not Boston.

You wouldn't blame Detroit for missing out on Vesey because they're too far away, would you? There are some things that teams that desire players just can't change, and you can hardly blame the GM for that. The ONLY one here to blame is Vesey.

Nobody answered because they knew they were being disingenuous. But taking your point and removing MB as an example, let me ask you this:

If the B's had signed Vesey yesterday, do you think people would have been happy? Do you think people would have considered that a win for the front office? Do you think people would be going out of their way by saying it's not a big deal and that he'd only be the 4th, 7th, 83rd, or whatever number highest rated LW in the organization depth wise??

So again, the point stands, IMO. If you want to call things a win when it's a positive, you have to call it a loss when the reverse happens just to be consistent.

 

[LSCII]

I read it and I'm like 'what the heck does it mean?' But I could tell it's an important word and gets right to it.

It would be a cool last name - a cornerback like Roscoe Canard

Can't wait to read Kirks take on all this - it could go many ways with even us fueling the fire

Joe said it best - Vesey went Boston South

It's like the anti Cheers 'where nobody knows your face and probably name'

4 hour car ride and quick flight

Play with 2 friends who already got years on the dos and donts

I shouldn't be so hard in Vesey I'm a path of least of resistence guy myself

Dan, you're smarter than this just to chalk it up to nerves and pressure and say the kid is a wilting flower in the sun. He played big time college hockey in front of his friends and family at home many a night and didn't shrink in the moment. If anything, I firmly believe his decision is a hockey based one. I believe that he thinks he'll get more meaningful minutes elsewhere and that the path the Rangers are on is ahead of the one the B's and their "not a rebuild" are on. Simple as that. It's closer to home than Chicago, and the Rangers are a better team than Boston right now. No need to imply he's going there just because he doesn't want the spotlight. If anything, the lights in NY are more intense if he becomes what some project him to be.

 

[Gee Wally]

I dont think hes any wilting flower either.

If he flounders he will hear it and hear it loud at MSG. Lets not kid ourselves.

But what wont happen is his family wont have to hear it or be dragged into it.

And before anyone says that wouldnt happen in Boston I tell you like hell it wouldnt. The stuff that gets posted here alone ( and deleted) about players families is enough to make one want to puke.
If anything part of the decision, IMO, was protecting his family, not himself, but them if things dont go to high heights.

 

[LSCII]

I dont think hes any wilting flower either.

If he flounders he will hear it and hear it loud at MSG. Lets not kid ourselves.

But what wont happen is his family wont have to hear it or be dragged into it.

And before anyone says that wouldnt happen in Boston I tell you like hell it wouldnt. The stuff that gets posted here alone ( and deleted) about players families is enough to make one want to puke.
If anything part of the decision, IMO, was protecting his family, not himself, but them if things dont go to high heights.

There's no question it would happen regularly here if he wasn't good. It's in our nature.

 

[Fenway]

Dan, you're smarter than this just to chalk it up to nerves and pressure and say the kid is a wilting flower in the sun. He played big time college hockey in front of his friends and family at home many a night and didn't shrink in the moment. If anything, I firmly believe his decision is a hockey based one. I believe that he thinks he'll get more meaningful minutes elsewhere and that the path the Rangers are on is ahead of the one the B's and their "not a rebuild" are on. Simple as that. It's closer to home than Chicago, and the Rangers are a better team than Boston right now. No need to imply he's going there just because he doesn't want the spotlight. If anything, the lights in NY are more intense if he becomes what some project him to be.

Yes and no. Certainly few arenas bear the intensity of Madison Sq Garden but the reality is before and after a game a player can walk along 7th Avenue and be ignored. The tabloids only pay attention to the Rangers if they are making a playoff push so there really isn't the media pressure in NY as you see in other cities. You seldom hear hockey talk on WFAN.

A lot of Rangers players actually take the train to Grand Central and cab or walk to MSG as most of them live in Westchester where the Rangers practice is located near the Tappan Zee Bridge.

His Harvard degree will also open doors in the NY business world and being fluent in Chinese will prove valuable in this century.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Wow Joe, great job. You convinced me. What an idiot Don Sweeney and Cam Neely were for wasting so much time and energy on this kid who isn't as good as Bjork. I mean to offer a valuable max rookie contract, a roster spot on the 50 limit, top 6 minutes....... that kind of time, effort, resources on a guy who MIGHT be the 9th best LW on the team. Wow what a dolt. I totally agree with you that this kind of incompetence should cost him his job.

Wow Dave, great job in not looking at the entire picture. Do you really need me to point out that of those guys, only Marchand, Beleskey, and Vatrano have NHL experience and several are still in college/juniors...or did it just not serve your purpose to mention that?

I don't think you need to be a genius to figure out that the B's felt that they could plug Vesey in right NOW, which is not an option with most of those other guys. My point was that over the next few years, I don't think losing Vesey will hurt much. This year, it might, if somebody like Vatrano or Heinen doesn't step up.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

If we have 5 or 6 young players who are "better" or "project to be better", then why would Don Sweeney promise Vesey, as part of his pitch, that he'd have a lock on a top 6 role, playing LW beside Krejci?

Why would a GM *ever* promise such a thing, if you are right that there are multiples of players already in the organization who are "better" and "more versatile"?

He'd have to be out to lunch, if so. Well, actually, not if an alternative and frankly much more likely scenario, is true-- that Sweeney actually assessed that Vesey is better than other young LW prospects we currently have, and so he made that promise. And Vesey went elsewhere, and it sucks, but we don't need to boo him or pretend we have countless better players on our team, because we really don't.

In short, as much as I respect you both as posters, I'll go with Sweeney's judgment on this one.

See my post above, answers your questions and Dr Q's similar, but slightly more sarcastic ones as well. Vesey is older and more ready to slot in right now than those other options. Also, as I have mentioned many times, adding Vesey gives you more depth and makes it easier to deal another LW prospect for an area of need.

 

[Fossy21]

how is this guy getting so much hype? Is he better than Mcdavid or Matthews?

He doesn't need to be. He's minimum risk with potentially high reward. Of course teams are going to go after him. Also he's public with having grown up a Bruins fan, which explains a lot of disappointment from this particular fanbase (other fanbases could be disappointed because they were named amongst the teams he was interested in but didn't get a "free" prospect)

I don't know why no one ever answered you here, but that take on Beleskey vs Vesey is completely wrong because they're entirely different situations.

I did answer him, somewhat differently. But you may have me on ignore, I'd totally understand it.

NHLe is a useful tool and it can't be dismissed[...]

This could go both ways, though. Vesey might turn out to be nothing, whereas some no-name pickup who didn't produce much at all at any level approaching that of NCAA could turn into an all-star. We just won't know for quite some time. I don't think we can say that we have 7 LW that are going to have better careers. I think it is fair to say that we're deep at that position and that adding Vesey, while possibly a great move and not very likely a bad one (worst case scenario is he scares someone else off signing here because of organisational depth who turns out better? Not very likely) doesn't make or break the franchise. I know you're trying to keep people honest in here, but I think you might be exaggerating in some places too.

 

[Fossy21]

If we have 5 or 6 young players who are "better" or "project to be better", then why would Don Sweeney promise Vesey, as part of his pitch, that he'd have a lock on a top 6 role, playing LW beside Krejci?

Why would a GM *ever* promise such a thing, if you are right that there are multiples of players already in the organization who are "better" and "more versatile"?

He'd have to be out to lunch, if so. Well, actually, not if an alternative and frankly much more likely scenario, is true-- that Sweeney actually assessed that Vesey is better than other young LW prospects we currently have, and so he made that promise. And Vesey went elsewhere, and it sucks, but we don't need to boo him or pretend we have countless better players on our team, because we really don't.

In short, as much as I respect you both as posters, I'll go with Sweeney's judgment on this one.

Has this even been confirmed as true? And even if it were, did it include a timeframe? He might have got 10 games on the second line before further evaluation? As much as that may have soured some (including LW prospects), I don't think it's necessarily a too steep price to pay to attract a free agent with low risk and possibly high reward. If DeBrusk were to suddenly become a UFA, would there be no interest in other organisations?

Also, they might be fairly equal as opposed to far better, in which case adding more depth can't be construed as bad? Again, unless it scares away other players (including aforementioned depth), which I figure is quite unlikely?

 

[Era of Sanity]

anyone who says they are offering him a top 6 job is full of **** anyway. If he does not impress at training camp he won't be in the Rangers top 6 either, coaches juggle vets around by the game led alone a rookie.

 

[Fonzerelli]

If we have 5 or 6 young players who are "better" or "project to be better", then why would Don Sweeney promise Vesey, as part of his pitch, that he'd have a lock on a top 6 role, playing LW beside Krejci?

A few posts up.

Because he is ready right now. He's 23 years old and a plug-n-play, no-risk investment. Could always ship him down to Providence if he stunk it up real bad. Many of the better LW prospects in our system (Bjork, Gabrielle, DeBrusk) won't be ready for a couple years or more. Marchand, Beleskey and Vatrano are better right now, but Vatrano can also play off wing. Many believe Heinen to be better, but he also plays RW and has yet to actually prove himself in the pro game. So Vesey is a low cost fit right now, a possible hidden jackpot and at worst, a bridge until the better LW prospects are ready to step in.

 

[Over the volcano]

Been back home for a few hours and made some some calls.

The main reason Jimmy signed with New York goes back many many years. If you are 45 or older this music will remind you of a radio show that was legendary before sports radio existed

https://youtu.be/J55xnFE0Ibo?t=91

It goes back to when Jacobs sued the old WEEI because of something said on that show.

I wish the kid the best - I think he got horrible advice.

Could you be a wee bit more specific? I'm just 40 and can't connect the dots

 

[Fonzerelli]

Vesey could honestly be figured in on a top six role next year because vatrano Heinen and the rest of the batch are best off given a little more time before being expected/depended on making the jump full time. Vesey at 23 as a couple years on the rest assuming belesky/pasta get moved over to the right side.

I think it's Vesey who would be best served with a little time in the minors. Heinen as well. Vatrano has already done that. He's ready to go.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Thanks for the link. Interesting stuff, but if you noticed I did say what were the NHLe's for those guys THIS year (as Barzal spend much of the time hurt) AND I believe (not sure if you agree) that Draft +1 years are more predictive(in general) than draft years as it's one more year closer to the NHL.

EDITED: Nevermind, read more on the site and answered my own questions

It's actually the opposite. The older players get relative to their league, the easier things become and less predictive (because the NHL is not easy). A players performance at younger ages and playing against older guys is more predictive of success in the NHL. If they can perform when it's hard it's a better indication they can perform in the hardest league in the world. Guys who put up even strength points in Major Junior at 17 years old are solid gold in the NHL.

That's one of the reasons Jesse Gabrielle is so intreaguing. His entertaining style aside, he was the #1 Central Scouting ranked player from the WHL in ESP60 (even strength point per 60 minutes) and in his 16 year old season was the #2 ranked player from the WHL in his age group. He is now the 2nd highest scoring 1997 born player in the WHL. He was already an even strength beast and then led the league in shorties last year on top of that. In fact, in addition to becoming the youngest 40 goal scorer in Prince George Cougar history, (and the Bruins highest scoring amatuer prospect), Gabrielle became the second highest scoring 18 year old this century in non-power play goals (tied with Patrick Kane) in either the WHL or the OHL and just one goal off the lead, held by Joffery Lupul. Definitely a player to keep an eye on. Jake DeBrusk and Zach Senyshyn were also impressive even strength players in both their draft and draft+1 years.

In the words of analytic guru Gabriel Desjardin;

A 17-year-old player’s performance predicts a much better career than a 20-year-old’s stats. But there is also a strong quantitative relationship between past and future performance. Based on the performance of thousands of drafted players, we can predict how many points a player will score in the NHL when he’s 21-years-old. If he’s 17, four years later, we expect him to score at 72% of his junior rate. But if he’s 20, on average, he’ll retain just 26% of his scoring.

That said, this stuff becomes especially predictive when the trajectory continues upwards, with good seasons being followed by even better seasons as the player matures in his league. When a player declines, red flags do pop up.

 

[neelynugs]

Wow Dave, great job in not looking at the entire picture. Do you really need me to point out that of those guys, only Marchand, Beleskey, and Vatrano have NHL experience and several are still in college/juniors...or did it just not serve your purpose to mention that?
.

i think they call this cherrypicking.