News Article: Jimmy Howard extension coming (Maybe/Maybe not)

[Heaton]

Also Howard is a more than capable starter, and he kept a lot of games last year from becoming flat out embarrassing especially in the first half of the season. We got out-chanced and outshot many nights, and thanks to Jimmy we were in games we had no business being in. He is far from a backup goalie at the NHL level. If we had a decent team, he wouldn't be our worry in goal. In fact he isn't a worry now!

He definitely was a worry when we had decent teams. I think he plays better when there's no pressure.

 

[Oddbob]

He definitely was a worry when we had decent teams. I think he plays better when there's no pressure.

I think he is a much better goalie now than he was when he was younger.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

When someone tells me that Howard is above average because he made the All Star team it's one of two things. Obsessed or Homer.

Who has told you that? Howard is/has been slightly above average because he's had parts of seasons and whole seasons where he played at a .920+ clip. He's slightly above average because he tended to keep Detroit from being blown out in games so they could hang around and make it interesting in the third, even when out-chanced big time.

Howard would have made the All-Star team because every team needs an All-Star. It's not indicative of his play. The fact that for most of the beginning parts of years and also when he's not trying to rehab too quickly to retain his starting role, he's been a real positive force is what makes people say that. Howard has certainly had bad streaks and is a bit of a headcase... but literally every goalie does and is.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He definitely was a worry when we had decent teams. I think he plays better when there's no pressure.

Was he though? Last and best chance in the playoffs, with Kronwall and a litany of chucklenuts, 2.44 and .924 in the playoffs against Anaheim and Chicago.
In the Chicago series, games 2-4, 1 GA, 1 GA, 0 GA. and in the clinching game 7 where they lost... 2GA in an OTL. So 1 GA for regulation and the game winner was one where Kronwall screened him pretty bad.

Howard was never a worry for this roster.

When we had decent teams (09-10 to 12-13): .924, .908, .920, .923.
After 12-13, if we're being honest, we never really had a good roster together all at once after that. We had good players at times, but that's when Datsyuk and Z started slowing down and anyone remotely useful on D started petering out.

 

[Henkka]

To judge where Howard ranks among his peers solely based on his save % is a bit disingenuous. I think one thing everyone here can agree on is that every Detroit goaltender has been playing behind a dumpster fire of a defense ever since Lidstrom retired. I think saying Howard is ranked in the 10-20 range is pretty spot on, put him on a team with a good D, and he easily ranks in the 10-15 range.

You can judge Jimmy Howard many ways. If we go to Evolving-hockey and use Goals above replacement stats for goaltenders, Howard is ranked 15th best from last 3 seasons combined. Slightly better than Lundqvist and Rask, slighty worse than Bishop and Crawford. But on the same range.

Mrazek is ranked 40th.

If we use WAR, Howard is also 15th ranked. Mrazek is 42nd.
IF we use that GAA, Howard is +9.6 at 19th best, Mrazek is -15.2 at 45th.

Howard's old salary was the 14th highest, so if he was ~15th best with 14th highest caphit, I think his contract was pretty much spot on.

His new contract is 25th highest, so maybe that's now more of a bargain.

 

[Winger98]

A couple million here.
A couple million there.
A couple million there.

Are you seriously going to argue that overpaying players doesn't matter?

Nope. I said overpaying Howard here, in this instance, doesn't matter.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

A couple million here.
A couple million there.
A couple million there.

Are you seriously going to argue that overpaying players doesn't matter?
Man.
I guess maybe it didn't matter. Holland was driving this team to the basement anyway.
Howard.
Ericsson.
Helm.
Abdelkader.
Quincey.
Weiss.
Samuelsson.
Nielsen.
Cleary.
Tootoo.
Colaiacovo.
Legwand.
Cole.
Zidlicky.

That 2011-17 era Holland.... my God.

Howard: Arguable that he was even overpaid. As Henkka showed, he was about 15th in performance and about 15th in cap hit. Then he started getting hurt. But hey, let's hold injuries against guys... that's fun.
Ericsson: Another case of injury sapping a player's good play. Overpay, sure, but he was a top 4D when signed.
Quincey: We literally tried EVERY option for a top 4D in 2014. We needed an NHL caliber guy and he had Detroit over the barrel. Hell, didn't we offer Stephane Robidas?
Weiss: Another guy who got injured and wrecked a potentially good relationship with the team.
Nielsen: Again, we needed a top 6 capable C. You might not care whether the team is competitive in a rebuilding year, but ownership sure does.
Cole: Detroit probably beats Tampa in the first round if Cole's neck doesn't explode. He was also a rental that we traded replacement level pieces for.
Zidlicky: Zidlicky was fine and we traded the level of pick that becomes a Dylan Sadowy (aka literally nothing) about 85-90% of the time.
Legwand: Legwand was a usage thing. He played well for a little bit, then he did something Babcock didn't like and he got drummed out of town. Don't know why this is here.


Helm: Inexcusable with the state of the roster in 2016 to re-sign him.
Abdelkader: Inexcusable contract. Terrible from the moment it was signed.
Samuelsson: Inexcusable contract in 2012 due to age. Also another injury-riddled deal. But he was mid 30s, so that's not a defense here.
Cleary: Inexcusable. The only reason he's even applicable for this list though is that his signing kept Nyquist down until November in his first "full" season.
Tootoo: If you wanted to fire Holland, you could have cited 2012 FA as your case. He literally should have just had his phone shut off that July 4th weekend.
Colaiacovo: Left on the dance floor and every single other girl was already taken. Holland went out and got the least attractive woman on the dance floor instead of dancing alone. But it turns out she was hideous inside and out.

Half of those, yeah, you're right. they were bad. And half of those really really bad ones were signed in 2012 and were literally off the roster by 2014.

 

[ricky0034]

as far as this whole Goalie thing goes I still maintain that the Wings biggest mistake in recent years was bringing in a super injury prone guy in Gustavsson to back up Howard

it forced Mrazek to bounce up and down a whole bunch instead of getting consistent time in in Grand Rapids,I think there's a good chance he'd have developed differently if the Wings had instead brought in a backup that could actually stay healthy so he could develop properly

 

[MBH]

Who has told you that? Howard is/has been slightly above average because he's had parts of seasons and whole seasons where he played at a .920+ clip. He's slightly above average because he tended to keep Detroit from being blown out in games so they could hang around and make it interesting in the third, even when out-chanced big time.

Howard would have made the All-Star team because every team needs an All-Star. It's not indicative of his play. The fact that for most of the beginning parts of years and also when he's not trying to rehab too quickly to retain his starting role, he's been a real positive force is what makes people say that. Howard has certainly had bad streaks and is a bit of a headcase... but literally every goalie does and is.

He's been above 20th in the NHL among regulars once in 6 years.
He's not above average.

Every year, he starts reasonably well and then falters.

Pre Dec. 1 vs Post Dec. 1
18-19. Before 19 games .923. After 36 games .900
17-18. Before 21 games. .915. After 39 games. .907.
16-17. Before 12 games. .940. After 14 games .916.
15-16. Before 11 games. .914. After 26 games. .903
14-15. Before 19 games. .919. After 34 games .905
13-14. Before 19 games. .913, After 32 games .909.

Maybe it's because he lets himself get out of shape.

 

[MBH]

as far as this whole Goalie thing goes I still maintain that the Wings biggest mistake in recent years was bringing in a super injury prone guy in Gustavsson to back up Howard

it forced Mrazek to bounce up and down a whole bunch instead of getting consistent time in in Grand Rapids,I think there's a good chance he'd have developed differently if the Wings had instead brought in a backup that could actually stay healthy so he could develop properly

Maybe.
I think with a goalie, sometimes you have to ride it out.
But Datsyuk and Zetterberg were still with the team and Jeff Blashill was probably battling to save his job, Holland was still pretending this team had a shot.

 

[Hockeyville19Calumet]

Who has told you that? Howard is/has been slightly above average because he's had parts of seasons and whole seasons where he played at a .920+ clip. He's slightly above average because he tended to keep Detroit from being blown out in games so they could hang around and make it interesting in the third, even when out-chanced big time.

Howard would have made the All-Star team because every team needs an All-Star. It's not indicative of his play. The fact that for most of the beginning parts of years and also when he's not trying to rehab too quickly to retain his starting role, he's been a real positive force is what makes people say that. Howard has certainly had bad streaks and is a bit of a headcase... but literally every goalie does and is.

Go review the contract thread. It's there several times.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Colaiacovo: Left on the dance floor and every single other girl was already taken. Holland went out and got the least attractive woman on the dance floor instead of dancing alone. But it turns out she was hideous inside and out.

Actually, when Colaiacovo was finally healthy he wasn't really that bad when he got put on the 3rd pairing in the playoffs.

They pulled the plug on him because they needed to make room to get some forwards on the UFA market, couldn't compliance buyout Samuelsson because of his injury and because Holland thought the future was bright on D with DeKeyser, Smith, Kindl and Lashoff all finding a place on the NHL roster



How come no one ever mentions Jonas Glasstavsson's over payment? Red Wings already had a perfectly capable backup signed for like $650k, albeit hurt for the start of next season. Glasstavsson had health issues and was nothing special at all in Toronto, but gets signed to be an expensive (at the time) backup goalie for two years.

In year one, he's a complete non factor, constantly injured and can't get it going when healthy. Then in year two, he's good a little over the first 2 months of the year, then he's on and off IR the rest of the year and garbage when he isn't, before playing well in two whole playoff games. Healthier and more consistent backup goalies were to be available on the UFA market for around $1M. But nope Holland, likely meeting the goalie in the trainers room at the Joe, hands him a one year extension for closer to $2M.

Surprising absolutely no one, poor Jonas spends most of that 3rd year collecting his paychecks from IR, which allows Petr Mrazek to come in and fool the Red Wings and their fans into thinking he's the goalie of the future.

Then, when Gustavsson should've been well on his way back to Sweden, he gets a one year contract to be the backup in Boston, where in the last game of the season he shits the bed against a Senators team that isn't even in the playoffs. This causes the Bruins to miss the playoffs and the Red Wings hold onto the last WC spot, extending the dumb playoff streak for a year, which causes Holland to panic sign Frans Nielsen and Darren Helm to keep it going and alleviate the loss of Datsyuk and delays an impending rebuild by at least another year.

THANKS A LOT, JONAS.


I'm starting to think Joey MacDonald has some gypsy aunt that put a curse on the Red Wings goaltending after Holland reneged on his promise to make Joey the full time backup for 12-13. After that slight:

-His "replacement" Gustavsson is an absolute disaster
-Howard starts his new long and expensive contract 6-9-7 and .906 for the rest of calendar year 2013
-Mrazek looks like he's going to be this stud future goalie and then BOMBS
-Howard looks like he's rebounding big in 16-17, then Jensen falls on him in his NHL debut and Howard misses 3 months while Mrazek continues to shit the bed
-Jonathan Bernier gets badly overpaid and overtermed enough for fans to think he'll make Howard expendable, but LOL NOPE
-Filip Larsson's already had a major groin injury

His smile while working his job as a personal trainer in Germany says it all:

 

[plymouthmi]

He's been above 20th in the NHL among regulars once in 6 years.
He's not above average.

Is the idea here that you want people to acknowledge that Howard's numbers were better in the years prior to his last contract? Because that is self-evident. In my opinion, that doesn't change the fact that it was a decent contract at the time it was signed. In the 4 years prior to the contract, among goalies who played at least 100 games, his save percentage was 8th. I think there were multiple factors that lead to his numbers then declining, some his own doing but some not under his control as the team was just simply worse .

It's not like that was a crazy contract making him the highest paid goalie or anything. Here are some goalies signed around the same time (2012-2014) for higher caphits: Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, Semyon Varlamov, Sergei Bobrovsky, Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller, Mike Smith, Corey Crawford, Kari Lehtonen, Jonathan Quick. I'm sure there are more but I just listed the ones I thought of that were at least somewhat close in age to Howard.

 

[MBH]

Is the idea here that you want people to acknowledge that Howard's numbers were better in the years prior to his last contract? Because that is self-evident. In my opinion, that doesn't change the fact that it was a decent contract at the time it was signed. In the 4 years prior to the contract, among goalies who played at least 100 games, his save percentage was 8th. I think there were multiple factors that lead to his numbers then declining, some his own doing but some not under his control as the team was just simply worse .

It's not like that was a crazy contract making him the highest paid goalie or anything. Here are some goalies signed around the same time (2012-2014) for higher caphits: Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, Semyon Varlamov, Sergei Bobrovsky, Pekka Rinne, Ryan Miller, Mike Smith, Corey Crawford, Kari Lehtonen, Jonathan Quick. I'm sure there are more but I just listed the ones I thought of that were at least somewhat close in age to Howard.

Well, some fans seem incapable of missing the obvious - that Howard has indeed not been worth his contract.

At the time, it was a tough call for Holland, but I didn't like it. This was a team that navigated the cap with cheap goalies. Overspending/committing on Howard, who'd been questionable in a few of those playoff series and who'd only had 3 good years in 4 seasons, seemed like the wrong move to me then.

 

[kliq]

He's been above 20th in the NHL among regulars once in 6 years.
He's not above average.

Every year, he starts reasonably well and then falters.

Pre Dec. 1 vs Post Dec. 1
18-19. Before 19 games .923. After 36 games .900
17-18. Before 21 games. .915. After 39 games. .907.
16-17. Before 12 games. .940. After 14 games .916.
15-16. Before 11 games. .914. After 26 games. .903
14-15. Before 19 games. .919. After 34 games .905
13-14. Before 19 games. .913, After 32 games .909.

Maybe it's because he lets himself get out of shape.

But do you see how using Save Percentage in a bubble is a problem? Goalies with bad defenses in front of them are going to play worse because the shots they get are going to be facing are much harder to stop.

Look at Mrazek, with Detroit's D I believe he was dead last in both Save % and GAA, then on Carolina he completely turned it around. Now I do believe Mrazek had something to prove at that point, and that being with a new coaching staff likely helped, but having a top D in front of him was the most crucial cause of his recent success. There is a reason why Mcelhinney a career backup had similar numbers. Same goes for both Griess and Lehner in NY, as they to played behind a great D.

You put Howard on the Bruins, Lightning, Preds etc. over the past 7 years, and I guarantee his Save % rises significantly and he is around 8-12 in Save %.

I would actually argue that being 20th while playing on the Wings over the last 6 years who are a 25 - 31 ranked D (leaning closer to 31 then 25) is actually quite impressive, and that doesn't even take into consideration his injuries.

 

[MBH]

But do you see how using Save Percentage in a bubble is a problem? Goalies with bad defenses in front of them are going to play worse because the shots they get are going to be facing are much harder to stop.

Look at Mrazek, with Detroit's D I believe he was dead last in both Save % and GAA, then on Carolina he completely turned it around. Now I do believe Mrazek had something to prove at that point, and that being with a new coaching staff likely helped, but having a top D in front of him was the most crucial cause of his recent success. There is a reason why Mcelhinney a career backup had similar numbers. Same goes for both Griess and Lehner in NY, as they to played behind a great D.

You put Howard on the Bruins, Lightning, Preds etc. over the past 7 years, and I guarantee his Save % rises significantly and he is around 8-12 in Save %.

I would actually argue that being 20th while playing on the Wings over the last 6 years who are a 25 - 31 ranked D (leaning closer to 31 then 25) is actually quite impressive, and that doesn't even take into consideration his injuries.

That's not what happened though.
Howard's ranking has actually improved as the team got worse.

Season Save% Ranking (among goalies with 35 games played)
2013-14 .910 28th - Playoff team.
2014-15 .910 30th - Playoff team.
2015-16 .906 33rd - Playoff team
2016-17 .927 - 2nd - Not a playoff team
2017-18 .910 24th - Not a playoff team
2018-19 .909 25th - Not a playoff team

So Howard's save percentage ranking has improved as Detroit's gotten worse.
So I'm not so sure his save percentage ranking gets better on a good team, where there's pressure to win.

As for Mrazek, when he left Detroit:
His numbers were:
2.89 and .910
Howard's numbers that year:
2.85 and .910

One guy had the benefit of playing regularly, getting into a groove and having the confidence of his coach.
One guy didn't.

Over the last six years.
Mrazek: .911 2.61
Howard: .911 2.71

 

[TatarTangle]

Mrazek had a handful of chances to grab the spot and blew it every time due to the train wreck called his fundamentals which routinely puts him in positions he can't recover from resulting in the ire of fans on every team he's been on. He could get away with awful positioning in the AHL, not the NHL. That aways befuddled me, he's not a small guy, he never needs to be that aggressive.

Sad state of affairs when this is still a talking point. Mrazek isn't good and has moved on, so should everyone else.

 

[kliq]

That's not what happened though.
Howard's ranking has actually improved as the team got worse.

Season Save% Ranking (among goalies with 35 games played)
2013-14 .910 28th - Playoff team.
2014-15 .910 30th - Playoff team.
2015-16 .906 33rd - Playoff team
2016-17 .927 - 2nd - Not a playoff team
2017-18 .910 24th - Not a playoff team
2018-19 .909 25th - Not a playoff team

So Howard's save percentage ranking has improved as Detroit's gotten worse.
So I'm not so sure his save percentage ranking gets better on a good team, where there's pressure to win.

As for Mrazek, when he left Detroit:
His numbers were:
2.89 and .910
Howard's numbers that year:
2.85 and .910

One guy had the benefit of playing regularly, getting into a groove and having the confidence of his coach.
One guy didn't.

Over the last six years.
Mrazek: .911 2.61
Howard: .911 2.71

In terms of variance, if you take out 2016/17, it was 0.4% in a 5 year range, he pretty much stayed the same as the team got worse (and I assume the D as well). This is likely an indication that Howard has gotten better as he has gotten older. I never really thought of that, but that's a good point.

 

[MBH]

In terms of variance, if you take out 2016/17, it was 0.4% in a 5 year range, he pretty much stayed the same as the team got worse (and I assume the D as well). This is likely an indication that Howard has gotten better as he has gotten older. I never really thought of that, but that's a good point.

It's possible he's gotten better. After getting worse.
The problem is, when he signed the contract, he was at .920 something.
He immediately dropped to .910 and below.

Let's put his 12-13 season in here, just to show that drop.

2012-13 .923 5th - Playoff team. NHL: .912 Diff: + .012
---contract signed---
2013-14 .910 28th - Playoff team. NHL .914 Diff: - .004
2014-15 .910 30th - Playoff team. NHL .915 Diff: - .005
2015-16 .906 33rd - Playoff team. NHL .913 Diff: -.007
2016-17 .927 - 2nd - Not a playoff team. NHL .913 Diff. + .014
2017-18 .910 24th - Not a playoff team. NHL .912 Diff: -.002
2018-19 .909 25th - Not a playoff team. NHL .910 Diff. -001

Howard's save percentage is getting closer to the average as the team gets worse.
Is he getting better? Perhaps. His GAA wouldn't agree.

Anyway, going back to when I jumped in here.
The point is that Howard has drastically underperformed in this contact.
Now that the pressure's off and this team sucks, he seems to have played a bit better, compared to NHL averages.

I'm not sure why any of this is controversial. It's well known that when Holland did try to trade Holland, he found no takers, because GMs didn't think he was worth his contract.

 

[kliq]

It's possible he's gotten better. After getting worse.
The problem is, when he signed the contract, he was at .920 something.
He immediately dropped to .910 and below.

Let's put his 12-13 season in here, just to show that drop.

2012-13 .923 5th - Playoff team. NHL: .912 Diff: + .012
---contract signed---
2013-14 .910 28th - Playoff team. NHL .914 Diff: - .004
2014-15 .910 30th - Playoff team. NHL .915 Diff: - .005
2015-16 .906 33rd - Playoff team. NHL .913 Diff: -.007
2016-17 .927 - 2nd - Not a playoff team. NHL .913 Diff. + .014
2017-18 .910 24th - Not a playoff team. NHL .912 Diff: -.002
2018-19 .909 25th - Not a playoff team. NHL .910 Diff. -001

Howard's save percentage is getting closer to the average as the team gets worse.
Is he getting better? Perhaps. His GAA wouldn't agree.

Anyway, going back to when I jumped in here.
The point is that Howard has drastically underperformed in this contact.
Now that the pressure's off and this team sucks, he seems to have played a bit better, compared to NHL averages.

I'm not sure why any of this is controversial. It's well known that when Holland did try to trade Holland, he found no takers, because GMs didn't think he was worth his contract.

If a goalies GAA is going up, but their Save % is improving, that is typically a sign that their team D is getting worse (ie. more shots/scoring chances against per game) which is exactly what my point is. Though changes of -.004, -.005, .007 etc are essentially no change at all.

As far as the contract goes, its an average contract for an average starting goalie. If you want to argue that it's a tad high, I won't disagree. If you are saying he was way overpaid, I just don't buy it.

As far as teams trading for Howard, the market for goaltenders is very very unique, you cant compare it to any other position as it's very dependent on salary cap situation for a variety of reasons. I really dont feel like getting into this as I feel like its obvious.

 

[jkutswings]

It's life-altering dialogues like this one that make me count the seconds until October.

 

[kliq]

It's life-altering dialogues like this one that make me count the seconds until October.

You would think that after almost a decade of this, we would stop being sucked in lol.

 

[MBH]

If a goalies GAA is going up, but their Save % is improving, that is typically a sign that their team D is getting worse (ie. more shots/scoring chances against per game) which is exactly what my point is. Though changes of -.004, -.005, .007 etc are essentially no change at all.

As far as the contract goes, its an average contract for an average starting goalie. If you want to argue that it's a tad high, I won't disagree. If you are saying he was way overpaid, I just don't buy it.

As far as teams trading for Howard, the market for goaltenders is very very unique, you cant compare it to any other position as it's very dependent on salary cap situation for a variety of reasons. I really dont feel like getting into this as I feel like its obvious.

He's been way less than an average starting goalie.
He's been below average in save percentage.
But that includes all the backups and emergency callups.
He has consistently ranked 24th and below for every year but one in his contract.

It was either a dumb contract by Holland, or Howard underperformed, or a little of both.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

You would think that after almost a decade of this, we would stop being sucked in lol.

I still want to discuss who was better between Greg Stefan and Glen Hanlon dammit!!

(probably not many old enough here to get that reference, but those were the goalie wars when I was a young fan. I was team Hanlon)

 

[ShelbyZ]

Any body else still mad they gave up on Kevin Hodson and Norm Maracle so fast?