Jets Top Prospects Poll: #1 Prospect

[csk]

Add Kovacevic please

 

[Mud Turtle]

I say Niku. Then I say Ves. Then back to Niku. Then Ves.
This is stressful and it’s only round one!
Seriously though. They both look like great prospects and both will be big cost-controlled parts of our team sooner rather than later.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I took Niku, after his first Pro season and watching him a few times at Moose games where he really stood out to me I believe this kid has what it takes to be a solid top 4 D-Man in this league. Question, where do you think Stanley ranks among that list? I've followed him and the guy hasn't impressed me at all, bust perhaps?

Stanley is last out of those 8, easily. But some 'true believers' will vote him into a high(ish) spot on this list because he scored a bit in D+2.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Petan's played too many NHL games to be considered a prospect. I think we've traditionally used the HF definition of a prospect: a skater who has played less than 65 games and hasn't completed 24-year-old-season. Goalies only have to hit 45 games and 24 years.

Actually, by that definition, Roslovic is still a prospect (he's only played in 42 NHL games, regular season + playoffs).

Age-outs this year:
Lipon (25)
Poolman (25)

Games exceeded this year:
Connor (113 GP regular season + playoffs)

Thought it was 50 games played. Not that it matters. Petan is not a prospect and Roslovic is by either number. But I consider Roslovic to have made the Jets, full time and Petan has not. Unfortunately a more rigid definition is needed, so games played it is.

In the real world though, Petan is still prospect because he hasn't risen to the top nor has he fallen out the bottom. Roslovic is not a prospect because he has made the NHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Even though Roslovic is technically still a prospect I think we can consider him graduated. I voted Vesalainen. Niku is closer to the NHL but I think Vesalainen will be a really good player once he makes it (AHL this year, NHL next year)

But you can say exactly the same about Niku and he is closer to the NHL. Although, if Myers is extended, Vesalainen may make the NHL before Niku does.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Tough call really between Niku and Vesa.

Niku unquestionably excelled in North America in his first season here. But that's at the AHL level, not the NHL level. His tiny NHL sample size doesn't count for much with me, even though he looked quite good. Defencemen traditionally take longer to get all aspects of the NHL game and while I couldn't agree more that Niku's ceiling is very high I'm in no hurry to have him on the Jets. I want the Morrissey approach with him (and frankly all NHL D draft picks we have) - let them season in the A for a couple of years. If he knocks down the door in training camp, well, throw that out but if he's just meh then another year won't kill us.

Vesa had an exceptional season in a men's league, on par with some substantially higher draft picks that play in the same league over time. He has numerous tools, skill and size. Duly noting his shooting percentage. But he accomplished quite a lot on a team that wasn't stellar, emerging in some aspects as a leader at a very young age. The NHL is generally kinder and easier to break into for wingers and I think Vesa is able to stick with the team this year. I won't be heartbroken if he plays a year in the A to learn the North American game a little better but I think he has better odds of sticking with the team this year so went with him.

Pretty hard not to be excited with a pair of guys that might forecast out as Karlsson-lite and Wheeler-esque (ceiling of course, not expectation).

Your points are that Vesalainen excelled in a men's pro league and that's true. But Liiga isn't up to the AHL and all Niku did was win the top D man award as a rookie - in the higher ranked men's pro league.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He would take 3rd line RW over a Petan.

He's a LW. Does Maurice play rookies on their off-side?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

i think appleton is the most underrated prospect. again, that us scout is gold with his picks.

maybe with getting rid of armia, it opens up space for each these prospects to get a few NHL games each. i would think this would do wonders for the collective (and individual) development of the players.

If Roslovic plays C then there is an opening for Appleton. He will have to beat out Petan & Dano.

 

[puck stoppa]

He's a LW. Does Maurice play rookies on their off-side?

I know, but I'm saying Petans spot on team. Surely a Perreault can play off wing, too much is made of players playing both wings, MP could swap no prob.

 

[puck stoppa]

Question for mods or anyone for that matter. Is there a way to copy threads and make changes or do I have retype polls and names every time? Also, can I start to create a thread and finish it a few hours later or will it time out on this site and delete work I did before?

edit: Nevermind, I realized I can go back and close polls early. This poll is closed.

 

[Jeti]

Vaseline is so much younger and has higher upside. It's gotta be him over Niku.

 

[Channelcat]

Too much Vesalainen love and not enough for Samberg. Perhaps a bit of 1st rd pick bias. But, I still understand the arguments made for him.

 

[buggs]

Your points are that Vesalainen excelled in a men's pro league and that's true. But Liiga isn't up to the AHL and all Niku did was win the top D man award as a rookie - in the higher ranked men's pro league.

D+2; D+1

 

[truck]

Vesalainen is 3 years younger and even if Niku's more proven, Vesalainen has a lot of time. Vesalainen's scoring in Liiga is almost at the level of Sebastian Aho even though his team was much worse and Aho ended up being a difference-maker the very next season. Of course, I don't consider Vesalainen as talented as Aho but still, when we consider his set of abilities and his physical assets, there's a lot to like and I don't see why he wouldn't become a first liner in an optimal scenario.

Two comments:
Niku was dominant in the AHL this year, but he was also great in Liiga the year prior. He was 7th in Liiga D scoring and put up a top 12 all time point total for U21 Liiga D. Vatanen had 3 of the top 12.

Vesalainen's production was in part a mirage. His personal shooting percentage was unsustainable and almost double the norm. For reference, his shooting percentage was 13.3% (that's 13% of unblocked attempts). Laine's shooting percentage was 6.7% in his last Liiga year. Cut Vesalainen's goals in half and his season is still good, but not great.

 

[Whileee]

Two comments:
Niku was dominant in the AHL this year, but he was also great in Liiga the year prior. He was 7th in Liiga D scoring and put up a top 12 all time point total for U21 Liiga D. Vatanen had 3 of the top 12.

Vesalainen's production was in part a mirage. His personal shooting percentage was unsustainable and almost double the norm. For reference, his shooting percentage was 13.3% (that's 13% of unblocked attempts). Laine's shooting percentage was 6.7% in his last Liiga year. Cut Vesalainen's goals in half and his season is still good, but not great.

Having watched Vesalainen in the U-18 and U-20, I'd say he's a top talent. His high shooting percentage is driven by a lot of PP goals. He was lethal on the PP, more than just lucky. His goals might be a bit inflated but he is a top forward prospect with size, speed and skill.

I really like Niku too. I am a bit uncertain about his defensive play. No questions about his offense, though. He looks like a dandy.

 

[Halberdier]

Your points are that Vesalainen excelled in a men's pro league and that's true. But Liiga isn't up to the AHL and all Niku did was win the top D man award as a rookie - in the higher ranked men's pro league.

If someone ranks AHL higher than Liiga, I think he is just wrong. Sure, AHL is more physical and they play NA hockey on NA rinks there so you can argue (and be right) about converting an AHL player to NHL level is much easier than a Liiga player.

That said FEL has been degrating in relative quality against other leagues lately and also the number of teams is way too high, so following their current trajectory AHL might be soon on par with FEL.

 

[truck]

Having watched Vesalainen in the U-18 and U-20, I'd say he's a top talent. His high shooting percentage is driven by a lot of PP goals. He was lethal on the PP, more than just lucky. His goals might be a bit inflated but he is a top forward prospect with size, speed and skill.

I really like Niku too. I am a bit uncertain about his defensive play. No questions about his offense, though. He looks like a dandy.

I'm not suggesting that Vesalainen's shooting percentage "might" have been inflated. I'm saying it was massively inflated - by almost double.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I know, but I'm saying Petans spot on team. Surely a Perreault can play off wing, too much is made of players playing both wings, MP could swap no prob.

If Vesalainen kicks the door down they can shuffle people around to find him room, no doubt. Not sure where Petan fits in this conversation. What spot does he have?

If Roslovic plays C then there is an opening at 3RW. I think Appleton is ahead of Vesalainen for that spot and both Petan and Dano may be in the running too. Vesalainen could put himself ahead of them but he isn't there yet.

OTOH, if Roslovic stays at RW we have Lowry at 3C and Copp at 4C. That leaves an opening at 4LW. Petan, Dano and Lemieux would be in that race. I doubt they burn a year of Vesa's ELC for him to play 4th line minutes.

 

[puck stoppa]

If Vesalainen kicks the door down they can shuffle people around to find him room, no doubt. Not sure where Petan fits in this conversation. What spot does he have?

If Roslovic plays C then there is an opening at 3RW. I think Appleton is ahead of Vesalainen for that spot and both Petan and Dano may be in the running too. Vesalainen could put himself ahead of them but he isn't there yet.

OTOH, if Roslovic stays at RW we have Lowry at 3C and Copp at 4C. That leaves an opening at 4LW. Petan, Dano and Lemieux would be in that race. I doubt they burn a year of Vesa's ELC for him to play 4th line minutes.

I have Petan on third line. Ahead of Appleton and Dano.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

D+2; D+1

These rankings change from year to year depending on what a player has done in the preceding year. IMO, it doesn't matter whether it was D+1 or D+5. I rank them according to what last year shows me.

But if you prefer to compare the players at a similar stage of development, what did Niku do the year before in Liiga? Seems to me he was to D what Vesalainen was last year to wingers. D>W.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If someone ranks AHL higher than Liiga, I think he is just wrong. Sure, AHL is more physical and they play NA hockey on NA rinks there so you can argue (and be right) about converting an AHL player to NHL level is much easier than a Liiga player.

That said FEL has been degrating in relative quality against other leagues lately and also the number of teams is way too high, so following their current trajectory AHL might be soon on par with FEL.

For a very long time, the top NA minor pro league was clearly the 2nd best league in the world. No question. That changed with the emergence of the KHL. But the KHL is still the only Euro league that ranks above the AHL. I believe that is pretty widely accepted.

European hockey has come a long way but not so far that a country like Finland, or Sweden for that matter with their small populations, can match the AHL in overall quality of player. It isn't even close, IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have Petan on third line. Ahead of Appleton and Dano.

Could come out that way but I think it is premature to pencil anyone into that spot. First Roslovic has to be moved out of it and that isn't cast in stone yet. Then there will be competition for the opening.

If Roslovic is 3RW then it will be a different opening they are competing for.

Either way, Vesalainen really needs to force the Jets to keep him on the NHL roster. He may, or not. I expect Vesalainen to play with the Moose this year.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

For a very long time, the top NA minor pro league was clearly the 2nd best league in the world. No question. That changed with the emergence of the KHL. But the KHL is still the only Euro league that ranks above the AHL. I believe that is pretty widely accepted.

European hockey has come a long way but not so far that a country like Finland, or Sweden for that matter with their small populations, can match the AHL in overall quality of player. It isn't even close, IMO.

The AHL is somewhere around 5th to 8th best league in the world. The AHL is a development league is what limits it. The veteran limit means that most of the top players leave the league pretty quickly one way or the other. And NHL teams put young players in AHL that might not be that good now but they hope will develop.

The European leagues don't have veteran limits. They do have some some import player rules that does limit their options somewhat, but at least those teams are trying to win, not develop players for another league.

SHL, FEL, KHL are for sure better than AHL. Arguments could be made either way between AHL, NLA, DEL, ELH (CZE), and maybe even HockeyAllsvenskan would be the argument in 3rd tier leagues.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The AHL is somewhere around 5th to 8th best league in the world. The AHL is a development league is what limits it. The veteran limit means that most of the top players leave the league pretty quickly one way or the other. And NHL teams put young players in AHL that might not be that good now but they hope will develop.

The European leagues don't have veteran limits. They do have some some import player rules that does limit their options somewhat, but at least those teams are trying to win, not develop players for another league.

SHL, FEL, KHL are for sure better than AHL. Arguments could be made either way between AHL, NLA, DEL, ELH (CZE), and maybe even HockeyAllsvenskan would be the argument in 3rd tier leagues.

I'm not prepared to accept that European hockey has progressed that far. Being a development league certainly limits the AHL quality to some extent. But there are some numbers that limit the European leagues also.

Liiga has 15 teams in a country of 5.5 million people. That is not much more than BC. I believe they also support 1 KHL team. Sweden has at least 2 pro leagues but the top one has 14 teams in a country of about 10 million population. Not a lot more than Quebec. These leagues have import player limits that have a similar effect to the veteran limits in the AHL.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I'm not prepared to accept that European hockey has progressed that far. Being a development league certainly limits the AHL quality to some extent. But there are some numbers that limit the European leagues also.

Liiga has 15 teams in a country of 5.5 million people. That is not much more than BC. I believe they also support 1 KHL team. Sweden has at least 2 pro leagues but the top one has 14 teams in a country of about 10 million population. Not a lot more than Quebec. These leagues have import player limits that have a similar effect to the veteran limits in the AHL.

Progressed so far from when? It's been pretty consistently like that for past 20 years.

Import limits don't work the same as veteran limits. Imports tend to be star players that they use to help the team. Not too mention no limits on homegrown players, and often imports are just NA where other Europeans don't count as imports. So you can consider the whole of Europe in the domestic talent group. They are trying to win. AHL loses their best players consistently moving on to NHL (much more consistently and freqently than European teams lose talent) and NHL teams don't stack AHL teams to win which is how guys like Cormier are used for the veteran spots quite often. Teams use AHL to play young players to develop, not too win games is a big difference.

If AHL was an independant tier 2 league (perhaps like if it was a relegation/promotion league with NHL) I have absolutely no doubt AHL would easily be the #2 league. This is not the case. We see the same thing happen in Russia where the VHL is used as a development league so it is much weaker than other European leagues, even other tier 2 European leagues.

We've seen AHL teams go over to things like Spengler Cup and struggle. It's the only points we have to compare and they are not favourable to the AHL.