Jets Top Prospects Poll: #1 Prospect

[Mortimer Snerd]

Progressed so far from when? It's been pretty consistently like that for past 20 years.

Import limits don't work the same as veteran limits. Imports tend to be star players that they use to help the team. Not too mention no limits on homegrown players, and often imports are just NA where other Europeans don't count as imports. So you can consider the whole of Europe in the domestic talent group. They are trying to win. AHL loses their best players consistently moving on to NHL (much more consistently and freqently than European teams lose talent) and NHL teams don't stack AHL teams to win which is how guys like Cormier are used for the veteran spots quite often. Teams use AHL to play young players to develop, not too win games is a big difference.

If AHL was an independant tier 2 league (perhaps like if it was a relegation/promotion league with NHL) I have absolutely no doubt AHL would easily be the #2 league. This is not the case. We see the same thing happen in Russia where the VHL is used as a development league so it is much weaker than other European leagues, even other tier 2 European leagues.

We've seen AHL teams go over to things like Spengler Cup and struggle. It's the only points we have to compare and they are not favourable to the AHL.

My perceptions go back a lot longer than 20 years. That's like only yesterday.

If we consider the whole of Europe as the domestic talent group we also have to look at all of the Euro leagues. A lot of Euro talent that isn't siphoned off by the NHL has gone to the KHL.

True, AHL teams don't emphasize winning to the same degree. I think most have still pushed it harder than the Moose do, at least up until very recently.

The reason AHL teams lose their top talent so much more quickly and often is because it is NHL talent. When those veteran Euro players come to the NHL in their mid to late 20's they don't fare so well. See Thomas Raffle for an example. Of those who succeed I think most come from the higher level KHL.

I'll give you the Spengler Cup point. But if those non KHL Euro leagues are so good, why aren't raiding them for more good players? It is generally just the highly drafted ones who succeed in the NHL and they tend to come to NA while still very young. Or later drafted ones who develop in Europe for a time and then come to NA to finish their development/make the NHL.

 

[Gm0ney]

Emmanuel Perry came up with this list of NHL point equivalencies (NHLe):



So Liiga's conversion factor is 0.4696 and the AHL is a bit below that at 0.4241. Take it with a grain of salt (or many grains) but it's a ballpark picture.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

My perceptions go back a lot longer than 20 years. That's like only yesterday.

If we consider the whole of Europe as the domestic talent group we also have to look at all of the Euro leagues. A lot of Euro talent that isn't siphoned off by the NHL has gone to the KHL.

True, AHL teams don't emphasize winning to the same degree. I think most have still pushed it harder than the Moose do, at least up until very recently.

The reason AHL teams lose their top talent so much more quickly and often is because it is NHL talent. When those veteran Euro players come to the NHL in their mid to late 20's they don't fare so well. See Thomas Raffle for an example. Of those who succeed I think most come from the higher level KHL.

I'll give you the Spengler Cup point. But if those non KHL Euro leagues are so good, why aren't raiding them for more good players? It is generally just the highly drafted ones who succeed in the NHL and they tend to come to NA while still very young. Or later drafted ones who develop in Europe for a time and then come to NA to finish their development/make the NHL.

Tomas Raffl came from the EBEL. It's a 4th tier league.

No one is questioning that NHL is #1. KHL doesn't have as big a monopoly as you think in Europe. Lots of guys don't go there for a variety of reasons. There's lots of European talent that comes over to NHL and does well. Teams aren't raiding European teams for a variety a reasons, at least part of it is age. NHL teams won't be signing 26-29 year old guys for the AHL who are better than their AHLer since they are developing players who are 20-22. Also many players that could play NHL or at least be elite AHL borderline NHL won't come over since why would they bother at 27-28 with the risk of going AHL and making peanuts. Or players see the example of a guy like Shipachyov and don't want to uproot their comfortable situation for a risk like that. Also alot of the top players in Europe are guys who moved past AHL and played like 2-5 years in NHL, but after their options dwindled they headed over. Then there's a large portion of guys who starred in AHL at 21-25 but never made the jump and headed over. I don't think these guys are worse now at 26-29 than they were at 21-23. This isn't just NA players going over either, lots of Europeans come over and head back.

Point being is that the 25-32 year old guys that dominate Europe will mostly beat the 20-24 year old AHL teams. Doesn't make them better NHL prospects so NHL teams don't bother. It's why it's noticeable when a young stars in those leagues and they come over (ie Panarin) in general. But the level of play is much strong in the top European leagues, even if the roster has less NHL potential.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Tomas Raffl came from the EBEL. It's a 4th tier league.

No one is questioning that NHL is #1. KHL doesn't have as big a monopoly as you think in Europe. Lots of guys don't go there for a variety of reasons. There's lots of European talent that comes over to NHL and does well. Teams aren't raiding European teams for a variety a reasons, at least part of it is age. NHL teams won't be signing 26-29 year old guys for the AHL who are better than their AHLer since they are developing players who are 20-22. Also many players that could play NHL or at least be elite AHL borderline NHL won't come over since why would they bother at 27-28 with the risk of going AHL and making peanuts. Or players see the example of a guy like Shipachyov and don't want to uproot their comfortable situation for a risk like that. Also alot of the top players in Europe are guys who moved past AHL and played like 2-5 years in NHL, but after their options dwindled they headed over. Then there's a large portion of guys who starred in AHL at 21-25 but never made the jump and headed over. I don't think these guys are worse now at 26-29 than they were at 21-23. This isn't just NA players going over either, lots of Europeans come over and head back.

Point being is that the 25-32 year old guys that dominate Europe will mostly beat the 20-24 year old AHL teams. Doesn't make them better NHL prospects so NHL teams don't bother. It's why it's noticeable when a young stars in those leagues and they come over (ie Panarin) in general. But the level of play is much strong in the top European leagues, even if the roster has less NHL potential.

I never suggested that the KHL had anything like a monopoly - but it is generally conceded to be the 2nd best league in the world. They certainly do well attracting Russian players.

I was not suggesting that teams raid the Euro leagues for the AHL. If they are better than, or even equal to the AHL then they have quite a few NHL calibre players - other than those like Vesalainen, who are on their way over - who could be raided for middle roles in the NHL.

You could be right that the 25-32 YO guys in Euro leagues could beat the 21-24 YO guys in the AHL. The AHL isn't what it used to be and it wouldn't be the first time I was out of date. But those Euro teams aren't 25-32. They are 17-35. AHL teams are more like 19-28. But even so, I can't contradict you with authority. They definitely play a high level of hockey.