Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (Part XVI)

[truck]

5.5 is too high for Little, in my opinion. Gagner was reportedly seeking 5.5, and he settled at 4.8.

Surely they can meet somewhere in the middle here.

Math Time: (5.5+3.25)/2=$4.375MM

That would work for me. A tiny bit more for term and he is locked in at 4.5MM.

That's fair.

 

[cbcwpg]

Nick Kypreos ‏@RealKyper 1m

#Jets Bryan Little arb hearing sched Wed. With Gagner deal It's believed asking price from Little is 5.5m while Jets come with 3.25m


5.5 is too high for Little, in my opinion. Gagner was reportedly seeking 5.5, and he settled at 4.8.

Surely they can meet somewhere in the middle here.

Little: $5.5MM Jets: $3.25M The middle would be: $4.375MM

Capgeek had Gagner making $3.20MM and Little making $3.00MM last year. It would be interesting to know what EDM first offered Gagner. See if EDM came in as low as the Jets.

 

[ps241]

Little: $5.5MM Jets: $3.25M The middle would be: $4.375MM

Capgeek had Gagner making $3.20MM and Little making $3.00MM last year. It would be interesting to know what EDM first offered Gagner. See if EDM came in as low as the Jets.

Kyper gets is wrong as much as he gets it right but my guess is he is close on this one.

 

[tbcwpg]

Little: $5.5MM Jets: $3.25M The middle would be: $4.375MM

Capgeek had Gagner making $3.20MM and Little making $3.00MM last year. It would be interesting to know what EDM first offered Gagner. See if EDM came in as low as the Jets.

I think I saw a couple of days ago that the numbers are pretty much the same. Asking for 5.5, offered 3.25.

 

[Bob E]

Little: $5.5MM Jets: $3.25M The middle would be: $4.375MM

Capgeek had Gagner making $3.20MM and Little making $3.00MM last year. It would be interesting to know what EDM first offered Gagner. See if EDM came in as low as the Jets.

Edmonton had offered $3.5 mill, apparently.

Thought they would split the difference and be at $4.5/yr, but Gagner got $4.8/yr.

I have a sense that Little (who has scored more goals and points in an NHL season than Gagner) will be near $5 mill now, too. That's a bit high for him. But $4.8 is high for Gagner, who has never scored more than 20 goals or 50 pts in NHL. Little has done both, in his career.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

This is what I have:

Little - 4 years at 4.5
Wheeler - 5 to 7 years at 6
Bogosian - 8 years at 5.5

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST SIGN THEM SO I CAN SLEEP!!!!!!!!

 

[Gump Hasek]

Kyper gets is wrong as much as he gets it right but my guess is he is close on this one.

My guess is that Kypreos is probably spot on because Little's agent Anton Thun is a near semi-permanent guest on Sportnet's shows Hockey Central and Prime Time Sports. Anything Kypreos heard regarding this matter near certainly came from a certain someone with a vested interest in spreading the details (hint hint).

Hopefully it isn't a big deal either way and they meet somewhere near the middle point prior to the hearing.

 

[ps241]

This is what I have:

Little - 4 years at 4.5
Wheeler - 5 to 7 years at 6
Bogosian - 8 years at 5.5

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST SIGN THEM SO I CAN SLEEP!!!!!!!!

If they were willing to pay Wheels and Bogo that money they could have had these deals done along time ago IMHO.

 

[truck]

Edmonton had offered $3.5 mill, apparently.

Thought they would split the difference and be at $4.5/yr, but Gagner got $4.8/yr.

I have a sense that Little (who has scored more goals and points in an NHL season than Gagner) will be near $5 mill now, too. That's a bit high for him. But $4.8 is high for Gagner, who has never scored more than 20 goals or 50 pts in NHL. Little has done both, in his career.

Gagner is two years younger and was on pace for 64 points this year. He is a career .62 pt/g player. Little is a career .56 pt/g player. I don't think career highs of 51 pts vs 49 pts (years ago) will make a huge difference. I personally see Little as a more complete player, but Gags probably has a little more upside.

I am hoping 4.8 is the new ceiling based on what they have done over their careers.

 

[wpgsilver]

Ugh. 5.5 is too much.
I'm really hoping this doesnt go to arbitration but that a big difference.
I hope we keep it under 5.


EDIT: I don't necessarily think the Ganger contract hurts our leverage, but if he signed for 4.25 it would have been nice.

 

[Bob E]

If they were willing to pay Wheels and Bogo that money they could have had these deals done along time ago IMHO.

I agree ps, but I think they may not have much of a choice, especially based on recent contracts for forwards.
Maybe they could pull a page from the Penguins book and sign them to deals that include their jersey number...

Little - 4 yrs at $18 mill, or $4.5 mill/ year.

Wheeler - 5 yrs at $26 mill, or $5.2 mill/year.

Bogo - 8 yrs at $44 mill, or $5.5 mill/year.

 

[Bob E]

Gagner is two years younger and was on pace for 64 points this year. He is a career .62 pt/g player. Little is a career .56 pt/g player. I don't think career highs of 51 pts vs 49 pts (years ago) will make a huge difference. I personally see Little as a more complete player, but Gags probably has a little more upside.

I am hoping 4.8 is the new ceiling based on what they have done over their careers.

Right, truck.

Little has shown he can score goals a bit more than Gags (except for last year), coupled with Little being a slightly more complete player, he likely should be close to $4.8 (but likely not above). I don't see Little commanding a Kane-type contract, but anywhere $4.6 and $5.0 is likely fair.

 

[Guerzy]

I agree ps, but I think they may not have much of a choice, especially based on recent contracts for forwards.
Maybe they could pull a page from the Penguins book and sign them to deals that include their jersey number...

Little - 4 yrs at $18 mill, or $4.5 mill/ year.

Wheeler - 5 yrs at $26 mill, or $5.2 mill/year.

Bogo - 8 yrs at $44 mill, or $5.5 mill/year.

This is what I am envisioning to happen, Bob. My post on the last page reflects this. At the end of the day here, Little and Wheeler are set to be UFA's next July, so in my opinion they pretty well hold ALL of the leverage here. Chevy can either pay them close to what they're demanding, or we'll lose them in a year. It is as simple as that. Teams across the league would envy signing these two (Little between 4.5-5 / Wheeler 5-6) as UFA's next July. You've got Little who is a reliable and very serviceable #2 centre who can shuffle up if need be. You've got Wheeler who is on the upswing and entering his prime as a big, speedy 60-65+ point RW'er.

Either we sign them, or someone else will. That's my take. While they are our players, in my opinion Chevy pretty well has to negotiate with them as if they are UFA's, if not we'll lose them. We can pay them perhaps a touch lower this upcoming season given it's their final year of RFA status, but after that we will need to pay them solid market value, or mightily close to it, in my opinion.

I just don't see any way around it and I don't expect 'home town discounts' by any means.

 

[peg]

This is what I am envisioning to happen, Bob. My post on the last page reflects this. At the end of the day here, Little and Wheeler are set to be UFA's next July, so in my opinion they pretty well hold ALL of the leverage here. Chevy can either pay them close to what they're demanding, or we'll lose them in a year. It is as simple as that. Teams across the league would envy signing these two (Little between 4.5-5 / Wheeler 5-6) as UFA's next July. You've got Little who is a reliable and very serviceable #2 centre who can shuffle up if need be. You've got Wheeler who is on the upswing and entering his prime as a big, speedy 60-65+ point RW'er.

Either we sign them, or someone else will. That's my take. While they are our players, in my opinion Chevy pretty well has to negotiate with them as if they are UFA's, if not we'll lose them. We can pay them perhaps a touch lower this upcoming season given it's their final year of RFA status, but after that we will need to pay them solid market value, or mightily close to it, in my opinion.

I just don't see any way around it and I don't expect 'home town discounts' by any means.

If Little and Wheeler do go to arbitration, do we have the option of keeping them for 2 years? If so, we would at least have some time to try to extend them. Also, a 2 year deal would make them a little bit more marketable if we decided to trade them. All of this is worst case as I sincerely hope we can come to long term agreements with both of them.

 

[GJF]

This is what I am envisioning to happen, Bob. My post on the last page reflects this. At the end of the day here, Little and Wheeler are set to be UFA's next July, so in my opinion they pretty well hold ALL of the leverage here. Chevy can either pay them close to what they're demanding, or we'll lose them in a year. It is as simple as that. Teams across the league would envy signing these two (Little between 4.5-5 / Wheeler 5-6) as UFA's next July. You've got Little who is a reliable and very serviceable #2 centre who can shuffle up if need be. You've got Wheeler who is on the upswing and entering his prime as a big, speedy 60-65+ point RW'er.

Either we sign them, or someone else will. That's my take. While they are our players, in my opinion Chevy pretty well has to negotiate with them as if they are UFA's, if not we'll lose them. We can pay them perhaps a touch lower this upcoming season given it's their final year of RFA status, but after that we will need to pay them solid market value, or mightily close to it, in my opinion.

I just don't see any way around it and I don't expect 'home town discounts' by any means.

I think you're absolutely right.

But, honsestly: I could see Bogosian taking a little "home town discount" when he hits UFA status and re-signs with the Jets.

 

[allan5oh]

If Little and Wheeler do go to arbitration, do we have the option of keeping them for 2 years? If so, we would at least have some time to try to extend them. Also, a 2 year deal would make them a little bit more marketable if we decided to trade them. All of this is worst case as I sincerely hope we can come to long term agreements with both of them.

No, 1 year only because they're a year away from UFA. With Bogosian we have the 2 year option which brings him to UFA.

 

[Huffer]

I agree ps, but I think they may not have much of a choice, especially based on recent contracts for forwards.
Maybe they could pull a page from the Penguins book and sign them to deals that include their jersey number...

Little - 4 yrs at $18 mill, or $4.5 mill/ year.

Wheeler - 5 yrs at $26 mill, or $5.2 mill/year.

Bogo - 8 yrs at $44 mill, or $5.5 mill/year.

I would take Little and Wheeler for 6 years if we could get them at those numbers. I think most forecasts have the cap really going up right away.

I originally thought Bogo was a lock for 5.5, but can Bogo really ask for more than McDonnagh and Shattenkirk? And 1.7 more than Hamonic?

Important days for the Jets for sure.

 

[truck]

I think you're absolutely right.

But, honsestly: I could see Bogosian taking a little "home town discount" when he hits UFA status and re-signs with the Jets.

Why do people say this? Where does all the Bogosian likes it here talk come from? Do we actually know this to be true?

 

[GJF]

Why do people say this? Where does all the Bogosian likes it here talk come from? Do we actually know this to be true?

Well, I certainly didn't speak with him about it. But there has been multiple interviews in which he said he liked Winnipeg a lot as he comes from a small town on the country anyways and isn't a big city-guy. He likes hunting and fishing, not partying.

I'm not saying he wouldn't be happy in Minnesota or Colorado, either. I just think (and I'm pretty sure that IS in fact a fact) that Bogosian is a person that likes living in a city like Winnipeg and the loyalty of the franchise and the fans.

*edit*

quick google:

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2013/04/26/decisions--decisions

Zach Bogosian

"Yeah, I've really kind of settled in here and I've enjoyed my time. Whether it's two years, eight years or 10 years, I'm going to enjoy playing here.

"I'm looking forward to that next step. I want to be part of the solution moving forward, as far as getting in the playoffs and winning a championship."

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2011/10/bogosianoct24.html

The American-born Bogosian had never previously been to the 'Peg. It's safe to say the culture, nightlife, and attractions in Winnipeg, aren't all that comparable to Atlanta.

Winnipeg may be a little foreign, but Bogosian has embraced the change of scenery.
"I'm still learning my way around there," the blue-liner said. "There are plenty of great spots in Winnipeg. I like Italian food, so on any night you can have a nice dinner there. I'm still exploring. Any time I've gotten away from the rink, it's been fun and exciting."

(...)

Despite the lack of success, crowds or support for hockey in Atlanta, Bogosian still has fond memories of the city where he spent his first three NHL seasons.

"It was a good city; I got accustomed to a lot of things over there. The weather was really nice, but that's something I'm not too picky about. I'm from Upstate New York and it's pretty cold up there."

I remember one or two more interviews and videos like this. He's from the canadien border and with playing hockey and rooting for the Senators, he's probably more Canadien as American

 

[Bob E]

I would take Little and Wheeler for 6 years if we could get them at those numbers. I think most forecasts have the cap really going up right away.

I originally thought Bogo was a lock for 5.5, but can Bogo really ask for more than McDonnagh and Shattenkirk? And 1.7 more than Hamonic?

Important days for the Jets for sure.

I suppose arguments can be made on both sides, Huff.

RM is the least offensive of the four, and makes the most aav. When it comes to goal scoring, Bogo and KS are identical over their careers. Points-wise KS is significantly higher, but plays a far less physical game than Bogo. TH is a shut down guy and has slightly more PIMs (on avg), but is the least offensive. TH and RM are close in many areas, except PIMs.

Bottom-line, I agree, Bogo should be around $4.5 to $5, on a long-term deal. Do you pay more for his size and strength? Also makes TH's contract look like an absolute steal.

 

[truck]

Well, I certainly didn't speak with him about it. But there has been multiple interviews in which he said he liked Winnipeg a lot as he comes from a small town on the country anyways and isn't a big city-guy. He likes hunting and fishing, not partying.

I'm not saying he wouldn't be happy in Minnesota or Colorado, either. I just think (and I'm pretty sure that IS in fact a fact) that Bogosian is a person that likes living in a city like Winnipeg and the loyalty of the franchise and the fans.

Anybody can say the right things.

Chris Mason supposedly loved it here and he bolted for less money and less starts.

A home town discount would be nice, but one never knows.

 

[GJF]

Anybody can say the right things.

Chris Mason supposedly loved it here and he bolted for less money and less starts.

A home town discount would be nice, but one never knows.

I never said he WILL take one right?


*edit*

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/bogo-finds-his-mojo-133597773.html

still only bla bla?

 

[truck]

I never said he WILL take one right?

No and you aren't the only one that has mentioned it, but it is an interesting story line.

 

[Gm0ney]

I never said he WILL take one right?


*edit*

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/bogo-finds-his-mojo-133597773.html

still only bla bla?

I just posted in the "Little asking for $5.5 million" thread that we shouldn't expect home town discounts from any of these guys - taxes are the highest in the league here, and the team is Top-10 in revenue...why take a discount? To line Chipman and Thomson's pockets?

 

[GJF]

I just posted in the "Little asking for $5.5 million" thread that we shouldn't expect home town discounts from any of these guys - taxes are the highest in the league here, and the team is Top-10 in revenue...why take a discount? To line Chipman and Thomson's pockets?

To give them a little more money to work with signing other players as good as yourself (for example Bogosian) to win that big ugly thing babies pooped into.


Come on guys It happens and why shouldn't there be at least ONE player doing it for the Jets? Even if he doesn't ... I (and others) am not saying he WILL do it, but I (and others) could see him doing it.