Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (Part XVI)
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King Woodballs
Captain Awesome
Lynk
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GJF
Beaver Jedi
sully1410
#EggosForEleven
My ideal bottom 6 would be:
Tangradi/Wright - O'Dell - Frolik
Tangradi/Wright - Slater - Halischuk
Gives us some offensive jump on our 3rd and a pretty good 4th line that can kill penalties well and isn't a liability on the ice.
Tangradi/Wright - O'Dell - Frolik
Tangradi/Wright - Slater - Halischuk
Gives us some offensive jump on our 3rd and a pretty good 4th line that can kill penalties well and isn't a liability on the ice.
A little too close for my liking, but I'm holding out hope we have 3 last minute agreements announced. Little on Tuesday, Wheeler next Sunday and Bogo on August 1st. All 3 go down to the wire just like Kane.
Sweech
Oh When the Spurs
I'd like to see Halischuk paired with someone who pushes play forward. To take advantage of his bottom six point production.
Guys like Tangradi or Frolik, while keeping him away from Slater/Thorburn/Wright.
So if both Wheeler and Little sign 1 yr deals from arbitration, how do you feel about trading them before the deadline?
Personally, they would be gone. You can't lose top 6 players for nothing. I don't care how close to the playoffs we are at.
Personally, they would be gone. You can't lose top 6 players for nothing. I don't care how close to the playoffs we are at.
I think for Little the papers get filed tomorrow with arbitrator? That is where all the info the two sides will use to make their points are exchanged between the sides so they can get ready.... Not a good thing....On the bright side if one of the 3 goes to arbitration I hope it is Little
I forgot about the papers getting filed 48 hours prior to the hearing. You have to hope Chevy and Little's camp are working hard on a deal tonight.
cbcwpg
Registered User
Nothing good ever comes out of arbitration.
The two sides get to sit in a room for a couple of hours where the team basically bad mouths the player and tries to prove why he isn't worth the money he is asking for. Even if the arbitrator comes up with a contract and the player signs for a year or two... feelings get hurt... and most likely you will end up having to trade them in the long run because they will ask to be traded.
The player uses the threat of arbitration to get a good deal, but they don't really want to go thru the process IMO. NO one likes to hear what their boss really thinks about them.
The two sides get to sit in a room for a couple of hours where the team basically bad mouths the player and tries to prove why he isn't worth the money he is asking for. Even if the arbitrator comes up with a contract and the player signs for a year or two... feelings get hurt... and most likely you will end up having to trade them in the long run because they will ask to be traded.
The player uses the threat of arbitration to get a good deal, but they don't really want to go thru the process IMO. NO one likes to hear what their boss really thinks about them.
King Woodballs
Captain Awesome
Gagner signed 3 yr 4.8 per
How does this effect Little now?
My guess is he probably wants 5 per now
How does this effect Little now?
My guess is he probably wants 5 per now
Holden Caulfield
Eternal Skeptic
Agreed.
To further the point, what is presented at the arbitration hearings is not even what "the boss" really thinks about the player. It is him/them pointing out all the flaws in order to keep the contract down. So it is "the boss" not giving a true honest opinion of the player/employee, but rather him highlighting anything at all negative about the player/employee to keep their salary down.
almostawake
Registered User
Pretty certain he wanted 5M before. In reality this probably means he'll sign for 4.5M for 3. IMO Little is a slightly better all-round player, but Gagner's numbers (from last season) are a bit better for arbitration purposes.
Little: 227 points in 404 games over 6 seasons
Gagner: 258 points in 414 games over 6 seasons
Yikes. Gagner's an excellent comparable.
(Before Garret jumps in with the advanced stats, I'm just looking at raw points since I believe only "official NHL stats" can be used in an arbitration hearing, and for the most part points are what gets you paid)
I'd say this sets the ceiling for him, and Hornqvist ($4.25M) sets the floor.
If anything, I think we get a deal before the hearing for sure now.
I'm upping my guess to $4.6M, on a 3 or 4 year deal.
Guerzy
I'm a fricken baby
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I think Little should slot in at around 4.5 million. We use him as a #1 centre, realistically he'd slot in the #2 spot, in my opinion. Ladd got 4.4 (cap hit) and 4.5 in actual dollars in the final 3 seasons here of his contract signed two summers ago on a 5-year deal after he showed to be a fairly consistent 45-60 point winger and coming off a 30 goal season. Little has proven he can be a very reliable and consistent 45-50 point centre, log those key minutes and while he may not be a league-wide coveted #1 centre, he does indeed get the job done pretty responsibly. He deserves to be paid accordingly, in my opinion. I'd be happy getting Little to a 4 year deal worth 18 million, 4.5 per season cap hit. With that being said, Little could also be a UFA next July, so he has that leverage, and I think a team would easily give him 4.5-5 million. So we'll need to slot somewhere in that ballpark, I think.
4 years, 18 million, 4.5 per season in actual dollars and cap hit, but we may have to push the envelope here to around the 4.8 mark in those UFA years.
Wheeler in my opinion should get a deal in and around 26.5 million over 5 years, cap hit of 5.3 million. Top 6 wingers who can produce 60+ points get paid, and given Wheeler could be a UFA a year from now, we will need to pay him. He could easily get 5.5-6 million as a UFA in my opinion. And if he puts up 60-65+ points this season, many teams would love to sign that type of RW. I like the contract numbers/years I think he'll get and should get, and Winnipeg is a good fit for Blake.
5 years, 26.5 million, 5.3 per season cap hit.
Year 1 - 4.5 million (Final year of RFA status)
Year 2 through 5 - 5.5 million (4 years of UFA status)
At the end of the day while Winnipeg appears a good fit for both Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little, in my opinion they carry all the leverage here given they could go to arbitration and become UFA next July. We'll need to give them close to what they're demanding and what they would likely get as UFA's. We're buying some key years here from these players.
Ironically enough, the salaries I think Little and Wheeler will get fall in line with their jersey #'s.
4 years, 18 million, 4.5 per season in actual dollars and cap hit, but we may have to push the envelope here to around the 4.8 mark in those UFA years.
Wheeler in my opinion should get a deal in and around 26.5 million over 5 years, cap hit of 5.3 million. Top 6 wingers who can produce 60+ points get paid, and given Wheeler could be a UFA a year from now, we will need to pay him. He could easily get 5.5-6 million as a UFA in my opinion. And if he puts up 60-65+ points this season, many teams would love to sign that type of RW. I like the contract numbers/years I think he'll get and should get, and Winnipeg is a good fit for Blake.
5 years, 26.5 million, 5.3 per season cap hit.
Year 1 - 4.5 million (Final year of RFA status)
Year 2 through 5 - 5.5 million (4 years of UFA status)
At the end of the day while Winnipeg appears a good fit for both Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little, in my opinion they carry all the leverage here given they could go to arbitration and become UFA next July. We'll need to give them close to what they're demanding and what they would likely get as UFA's. We're buying some key years here from these players.
Ironically enough, the salaries I think Little and Wheeler will get fall in line with their jersey #'s.
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Huffer
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Obviously we don't know how the negotiations between Chevy and the agents have been going. Have they been positive, negative, etc, etc.
But what confuses me a little is that at least with Bogo (Voynov, Shattenkirk, Hamonic, McDonnagh), and now Little (Gagner, Hornqvist, others?), there are pretty bang on comparables for both sides to use. If both sides want a "fair" deal to both, I really don't see how it can be an issue when you have multiple other pretty close comparable contracts out there.
I'm not sure who a "recent" contract signing is to Wheeler though. I say recent because I am thinking that GM's are really trying to use the new lower contracts signed under the recent CBA, and maybe agents are trying to compare to older, more expensive contracts signed under the previous?
Either way, I'm really not understanding how Bogo's agent and Chevy can't meet somewhere between Hamonic and McDonnagh, and Little's agent and Chevy can't meet somewhere between Hornqvist and Gagner (just signed though I know).
Unless what's happening is one side is trying to go much higher or lower than recent comparables (ridiculous to me), or if term is an issue to one side or the other.
But what confuses me a little is that at least with Bogo (Voynov, Shattenkirk, Hamonic, McDonnagh), and now Little (Gagner, Hornqvist, others?), there are pretty bang on comparables for both sides to use. If both sides want a "fair" deal to both, I really don't see how it can be an issue when you have multiple other pretty close comparable contracts out there.
I'm not sure who a "recent" contract signing is to Wheeler though. I say recent because I am thinking that GM's are really trying to use the new lower contracts signed under the recent CBA, and maybe agents are trying to compare to older, more expensive contracts signed under the previous?
Either way, I'm really not understanding how Bogo's agent and Chevy can't meet somewhere between Hamonic and McDonnagh, and Little's agent and Chevy can't meet somewhere between Hornqvist and Gagner (just signed though I know).
Unless what's happening is one side is trying to go much higher or lower than recent comparables (ridiculous to me), or if term is an issue to one side or the other.
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King Woodballs
Captain Awesome
The more I think about it, maybe little's camp was waiting for Gagner to sign.
They probably figured he was a good comparable, and wanted to see what he would get, as his arbitration hearing was earlier.
That that Gagners deal is done, maybe Little gets signed today or tomorrow.
They probably figured he was a good comparable, and wanted to see what he would get, as his arbitration hearing was earlier.
That that Gagners deal is done, maybe Little gets signed today or tomorrow.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I actually think Holden mentioned that is no longer the case re: arbitration for new CBA. I believe it now allows for statistics that are ran and controlled by team/NHLPA as well.
I could see teams likely using a differential, but not Corsi or Fenwick. We online stat guys use Corsi/Fenwick because the fact that they correlate extremely strongly to scoring chances differentials. We would love to use scoring chances, but it's a lot of work to track them and Corsi/Fenwick are readily available and free for everyone to use. I'm sure most (if not all) teams have hired people to count scoring chances on their own players. Most likely the ones that do use Corsi/Fenwick (which we do not know how many) use it in part of scouting of other teams.
If you break up their points by ES/PP or by TOI or both, they are both still very comparable so your point still stands strong.
Little however is still much stronger defensively and in FO... not sure how much that goes into contractual consideration, although we all know production is #1 value for contracts.
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allan5oh
Has prospect fever
- Oct 15, 2011
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Do what Shero does, I would immediately talk to them about an extension before training camp. If there's no dice, you have to move them ASAP.
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