Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 (Part II)

[kcin94]

Didn't Scheifele start on 4th line? Gotta learn defensive responsibilities before making jump to more minutes.

If he needs to learn defensive responsibilities, playing 4 minutes a game isn't going to do that.

He can learn them in the AHL as well.

 

[Gm0ney]

True, was referring to his first full year. I don't see them going the 4thbline route with Petan as they have the option for him to play big minutes in the AHL which they didn't have for Mark.

It may be a good indication to see who's going to end up where by watching the lines the prospects get assigned to in pre-season. 3rd+ and you're getting a legit shot at making the big club.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's what scares me...don't want to force Ehlers into lineup due to lack of his other options.

As a rule I don't have a problem sending prospects back to the CHL. If they are not ready for the NHL it is not a bad option. I make an exception in this case because I don't think he was being developed well there. He was developing a habit of diving/embellishing maybe because the refs weren't protecting him properly. His behaviour lead to even worse refereeing. He was also playing too offensively at the expense of 2 way play. All in all I don't think it was a positive learning experience despite his scoring. I would rather see him here even if he gets limited TOI at first while he adapts.

I thought Petan was pretty much NHL ready at last TC. He should be that much more so this year. If only 1 of those 2 can stay and it is decided by which is most ready it would probably be Petan. I think it might be decided by Petan's ability to go back and forth between AHL and NHL though. Or Petan might force them to keep both. I really hope Ehlers isn't sent back to Halifax.

 

[brock0791]

As a rule I don't have a problem sending prospects back to the CHL. If they are not ready for the NHL it is not a bad option. I make an exception in this case because I don't think he was being developed well there. He was developing a habit of diving/embellishing maybe because the refs weren't protecting him properly. His behaviour lead to even worse refereeing. He was also playing too offensively at the expense of 2 way play. All in all I don't think it was a positive learning experience despite his scoring. I would rather see him here even if he gets limited TOI at first while he adapts.

I thought Petan was pretty much NHL ready at last TC. He should be that much more so this year. If only 1 of those 2 can stay and it is decided by which is most ready it would probably be Petan. I think it might be decided by Petan's ability to go back and forth between AHL and NHL though. Or Petan might force them to keep both. I really hope Ehlers isn't sent back to Halifax.

Correct me if I'm wrong as I'm much more familiar with the MLB's CBA but aren't they somewhat similar in the fact that ELC's don't start until you leave junior? Isn't that a good reason to bury Petan and Ehlers in the CHL one more year and overpay a Joel Ward type for one year instead. Kind of like what the Cubs took heat for doing with Kris Bryant?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Correct me if I'm wrong as I'm much more familiar with the MLB's CBA but aren't they somewhat similar in the fact that ELC's don't start until you leave junior? Isn't that a good reason to bury Petan and Ehlers in the CHL one more year and overpay a Joel Ward type for one year instead. Kind of like what the Cubs took heat for doing with Kris Bryant?

Petan is done with Junior. His ELC will kick in. It might be a reason in Ehlers' case but teams rarely seem to hesitate for that reason if a player is ready. If the Jets consider Ehlers to be not quite ready but not being developed properly in Halifax I'm not sure if that would be a consideration or not. Ehlers is a very valuable property and they will be willing to spend some $$$ to ensure he is being taken good care of.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Correct me if I'm wrong as I'm much more familiar with the MLB's CBA but aren't they somewhat similar in the fact that ELC's don't start until you leave junior? Isn't that a good reason to bury Petan and Ehlers in the CHL one more year and overpay a Joel Ward type for one year instead. Kind of like what the Cubs took heat for doing with Kris Bryant?

Not exactly. While it's true that ELC's generally slide while in junior, it's not always true. For example Nic Petan could be sent to junior this year for an overage year. But his ELC would run a year off of it. Nic Petan has his ELC start next year whether he is in NHL, AHL, ECHL, or WHL.

Nik Ehlers could be sent to junior and have his contract slide back one more year. But it's about what's best for the team and development of the player. While technically sending him back might be beneficial from contract standpoint, at certain times you need to let players play at the right level. Like how Calgary burned a year of Bennett's ELC last year by playing him in playoffs (which pushed him past 10 games).

 

[brock0791]

Not exactly. While it's true that ELC's generally slide while in junior, it's not always true. For example Nic Petan could be sent to junior this year for an overage year. But his ELC would run a year off of it. Nic Petan has his ELC start next year whether he is in NHL, AHL, ECHL, or WHL.

Nik Ehlers could be sent to junior and have his contract slide back one more year. But it's about what's best for the team and development of the player. While technically sending him back might be beneficial from contract standpoint, at certain times you need to let players play at the right level. Like how Calgary burned a year of Bennett's ELC last year by playing him in playoffs (which pushed him past 10 games).

Interesting thanks. You'd think that in the NHL where it's much more cap centric than in the MLB, structuring call ups around contention windows would be more prelevant not less.

 

[mcpw]

Joel Ward to SJS

 

[drumzan]

Joel Ward to SJS

Gosh darn it, wanted him with Jets. Oh well.

 

[supersonic jet]

You're correct: NHL or back to junior for Ehlers...


...which is why I think we see Ehlers with the Jets, and Petan with the Moose as one of the first callups. Ehlers really has nothing left to prove at the Junior level, and Petan could use some seasoning with bigger/faster pros before landing on the Jets roster.

I say this as a huge Petan fan as well - I'd love nothing more than to see him make it out of TC, but believe we'll see him with the Moose first.

Having Petan in AHL will help Kossy improve his game quickly having a great Center will be win win both get called up this yr.

 

[Aavco Cup]

With all the recent signings the Jets are now up to 42 NHL contracts. That does not include the four RFA's with QO's. Telegin is unlikely to sign but the other three will end up with contracts so that brings our number up to 45. There's only room for 5 more contracts until some players get sent down to junior in september. Chevy mentioned he thought they'd be up around 48 contracts this year. Still a few signings or a trade or both to come IMO.

 

[mcpw]

Harkins, AHL scoring forward, good bottom6 forward = 48.

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

If we're still looking for a forward to replace Frolik, I wouldn't mind one of Matthias, Stewart or Glencross

 

[wpgsilver]

Glencross is an intriguing name.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

If we're still looking for a forward to replace Frolik, I wouldn't mind one of Matthias, Stewart or Glencross

I wouldn't worry about missing Frolik, I have a feeling Thorburn is going to step up big time! He was pretty good during his run on the 3rd line when we got hit with injuries, according to my eye test anyway. #22 for life!

 

[Bob E]

One comment in Maurice's presser has bothered me tonight.

His comment of, "that will happen here" and "we will stay within a structure", when talking about Fro leaving.

Guys leave, happens to every team. The structure piece has me wondering what he meant.

We will stay within a salary or cap structure? Well Chipman has been on record saying they will likely be in the upper levels of the cap. We have almost $15 mill to spend. Surely a couple of hundred thousand dollars annually wouldn't mean we would walk away from a key player?

Worried Fro will be a 3rd line player within 2 yrs of the deal, and you're paying a 3rd line guy $4.3 mill? Maybe. But the cap will go up. That's likely the going rate.

Devoted to draft and develop and want to give young players a chance? Ok. But I'd rather a young guy forces your hand at training camp, not plan for him in July.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but my take is Chevy was trying to be aggressive at the draft to move up, but the prices were too high. He's tried to be aggressive in FA, or at very least competitive (with guys like Fro), and has been unsuccessful in most attempts (own FA and marginal signings not withstanding).

Just seems to be a negative or 'somewhat defeated' vibe coming from the team, when it comes to Free Agency, IMO. Without any other major moves, the teams cap spending may be under $60 mill. Well below many other teams. Will remain to be seen if Chevy is spending his fewer dollars more wisely than others.

 

[Jets 31]

Hey , Ryan ( i ONLY play for money and don't care about winning ) O'reilly gets 7.5 for 7 out of Buffalo , are you kidding me !!!!! Saad gets 6 million for 6 years ?? What are we going to have to pay Ladd , Trubs , Shief and Buff ?? Starting to think letting Frolik and 5 million for 5 walk to pay all these other guys was the right move after all .

 

[garret9]

I wouldn't worry about missing Frolik, I have a feeling Thorburn is going to step up big time! He was pretty good during his run on the 3rd line when we got hit with injuries, according to my eye test anyway. #22 for life!

Sarcasm?

 

[scelaton]

One comment in Maurice's presser has bothered me tonight.

His comment of, "that will happen here" and "we will stay within a structure", when talking about Fro leaving.

Guys leave, happens to every team. The structure piece has me wondering what he meant.

We will stay within a salary or cap structure? Well Chipman has been on record saying they will likely be in the upper levels of the cap. We have almost $15 mill to spend. Surely a couple of hundred thousand dollars annually wouldn't mean we would walk away from a key player?

Worried Fro will be a 3rd line player within 2 yrs of the deal, and you're paying a 3rd line guy $4.3 mill? Maybe. But the cap will go up. That's likely the going rate.

Devoted to draft and develop and want to give young players a chance? Ok. But I'd rather a young guy forces your hand at training camp, not plan for him in July.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but my take is Chevy was trying to be aggressive at the draft to move up, but the prices were too high. He's tried to be aggressive in FA, or at very least competitive (with guys like Fro), and has been unsuccessful in most attempts (own FA and marginal signings not withstanding).

Just seems to be a negative or 'somewhat defeated' vibe coming from the team, when it comes to Free Agency, IMO. Without any other major moves, the teams cap spending may be under $60 mill. Well below many other teams. Will remain to be seen if Chevy is spending his fewer dollars more wisely than others.

To understand the "we will stay within a structure" comment, you have to understand Chevy's business acumen and orientation. Maurice was simply repeating a key organizational mantra. From a recent FP article:

During his time as assistant GM with the Chicago Blackhawks he (Chevy) mastered the CBA and was the organization’s primary financial planner on the hockey side.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/sports/hockey/jets/The-architect-299354311.html

He understands the implications of the cap in building a contending club and the fact that you have to adhere to a structure. He also understands the concept of relative value, as players look to teammates' AAV and term as one input into their expectations for the future. The cap is not a problem now, but will be soon enough, as we reach contender status.
Every contract signed by a player has implications for other players' contracts and, thus, for the future.
Stafford's contract cost them $8.6M. Fro's would have cost them at least $21.5M. And there is not that big a difference in their respective values to the club over the next 2 years, especially with Burmi back. In fact, the re-signing of Burmi was likely the death knell for Fro on our team, just as the signing of Fro 2 years ago predicted the departure of Burmi to the KHL.

 

[Whileee]

"Structure" means slotting guys relative to value. Smart GMs do this. If you get pulled out of it, you quickly mess up your cap.

 

[Board Bard]

...Stafford's contract cost them $8.6M. Fro's would have cost them at least $21.5M. And there is not that big a difference in their respective values to the club over the next 2 years, especially with Burmi back. In fact, the re-signing of Burmi was likely the death knell for Fro on our team, just as the signing of Fro 2 years ago predicted the departure of Burmi to the KHL.

If the quotes about Frolik asking 4 x 4 last summer are accurate, it would have cost the Jets $16M, only $12M of which would be remaining now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If the quotes about Frolik asking 4 x 4 last summer are accurate, it would have cost the Jets $16M, only $12M of which would be remaining now.

So ...... what it comes down to is that Chevy just didn't value Frolik nearly as highly as most of us did. And that would be the whole story.

 

[Board Bard]

So ...... what it comes down to is that Chevy just didn't value Frolik nearly as highly as most of us did. And that would be the whole story.

Yeah. The difference between the $4M Frolik wanted and the $3.3 he eventually got paid is a Peluso. Or in other words, absolutely nothing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah. The difference between the $4M Frolik wanted and the $3.3 he eventually got paid is a Peluso. Or in other words, absolutely nothing.

If we are getting an accurate report it is just sad. Maybe just as well we don't know for certain. If I had heard that 4x4 report last summer I would have lit my torch and sharpened my pitchfork.

 

[scelaton]

If the quotes about Frolik asking 4 x 4 last summer are accurate, it would have cost the Jets $16M, only $12M of which would be remaining now.

All we know for sure is that he cost the Jets $3.3M for one year and cost the Flames 21.5 for 5 years. The rest was rumour and speculation. My speculation was that he wanted a 5 year deal all along and expected more in FA this year than he actually got. Whatever...he is gone now.

Frolik is a solid player and it would have been nice to retain him, but the message here is that the Jets believe his production can be replaced at a discount by Burmi, possibly Armia, and younger prospects in the not too distant future, with the savings to be used to catch 'bigger fish', as Buff might say...