Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 14-15 Part XI

[Aavco Cup]

Burmi $1M 1yr show me contract. He's a lot cheaper than half of what frolik will cost.

 

[surixon]

The trouble with that line of reasoning is that Burmi and Frolik are not tied together in any way. It is not either or. Never mind that Burmi is way short of Froliks value because he won't get half of 5 mil either. Not in the first year at any rate. Unless we sign a bunch of FAs we need both Burmi and Frolik.

I imagine the team has plans to bring back Stafford as he brings the size element and a bit more scoring than Frolik as well as open up a spot for Ehlers. Burmie back balances the possesion/defensive play out. Or at least that is how I see things playing out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I imagine the team has plans to bring back Stafford as he brings the size element and a bit more scoring than Frolik as well as open up a spot for Ehlers. Burmie back balances the possesion/defensive play out. Or at least that is how I see things playing out.

Again, players who are not tied together. If we want Stafford, we want Stafford. We still want Frolik. He is a better all around player than Stafford who brings very little additional scoring. There is room for Fro, Staff, Burmi and Ehlers.

Edit:Correction since none of them fits on the 4th line it gets a little crowded. Sign Fro, Staff and trade Burmi.

 

[surixon]

Again, players who are not tied together. If we want Stafford, we want Stafford. We still want Frolik. He is a better all around player than Stafford who brings very little additional scoring. There is room for Fro, Staff, Burmi and Ehlers.

Whereabouts?

Ladd - Little - Wheeler

Perrault - Scheifele - Ehlers/Stafford

Burmie - Lowry - Ehlers/Stafford

I doubt Burmie comes back to play on the 4th line.

 

[Bob E]

"We are not going to throw away our future to try to win the Stanley Cup next year," he said. "I can assure you of that. Are we going to try and win the Stanley Cup? Yes, yes we are - along with the 29 other teams. But we are not going to trade top young players for 29-30-year-olds to try to take a one-year run at the Cup. That is not going to happen."

(Hextall)

Flyers are a bad fit. How do you build a contending roster with Grossmann, Lecavalier, Umberger, and MacDonald on your payroll?

So what's throwing away their future? Their first 1st rd pick? Their 2nd 1st too? Moving a prospect like Morin or Sanheim? What about Hagg? Or if they get young player or prospect back, say Burmi, does that work?

They have multiple early picks and multiple LH d prospects. That may be appealing to the Jets. If Buff is available why wouldn't Philly see if the price wasn't more than what they would be willing to part with to get him. If the price is too high for Hextall, fine. But, IMO, Buff is what the Flyers need.

Pretty clear they will move heaven and earth to rid themselves of Vinny over the summer.

I think the Flyers roster will look a fair bit different, in September than it does now. They will want a blend of pieces that help now, and will come along down the road. To dismiss them as a potential Buff landing spot is to premature, IMO.

 

[supersonic jet]

I should probably stop getting sucked in to these circular discussions, but I'll try once more, and that is it...for now .
There was something to lose by playing it out, something small but significant.
Let's assume Chevy is a smart man, who knew, as arbitration approached, that there was 0 chance he would meet Frolik's salary demands last year. Frolik knew he'd lose nothing by asking for the moon and waiting for UFA if he did not get it. If that was the case, and I believe it was, then the "third period" was not last year, but is just coming up now. Chevy realized that, and also knew his best chance to nab Fro was to behave like a mensch in the interim and hope that Frolik chose to stay with a great organization, all other things being equal. Arbitration is a negative, potentially divisive force in that scenario.
The number of false analogies used to critique Chevy's approach is amazing.He is not a desperate car salesman looking for a sale at any price. What he is selling comes at a relatively fixed price, backed up by a great organization and team. That has value to many players...maybe not to Frolik...but it the right strategy and only viable strategy available in this situation.

When the dust clears, and we do sign our UFAs, pay attention to what they say. I suspect it won't be that, "Chevy drives a hard bargain and I blinked because I wanted to play here so badly..." It'll be more like, "Maybe I could have made a bit more money elsewhere, but this organization is so classy and player-friendly, and the team so tight that I chose to stay here..."
The ones that just want the most money won't come/stay here. Frolik's decision will speak louder than words and will reflect his values, rather than Chevy's competence as a negotiator.
Stay tuned.

I could not said it better well done.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I should probably stop getting sucked in to these circular discussions, but I'll try once more, and that is it...for now .
There was something to lose by playing it out, something small but significant.
Let's assume Chevy is a smart man, who knew, as arbitration approached, that there was 0 chance he would meet Frolik's salary demands last year. Frolik knew he'd lose nothing by asking for the moon and waiting for UFA if he did not get it. If that was the case, and I believe it was, then the "third period" was not last year, but is just coming up now. Chevy realized that, and also knew his best chance to nab Fro was to behave like a mensch in the interim and hope that Frolik chose to stay with a great organization, all other things being equal. Arbitration is a negative, potentially divisive force in that scenario.
The number of false analogies used to critique Chevy's approach is amazing.He is not a desperate car salesman looking for a sale at any price. What he is selling comes at a relatively fixed price, backed up by a great organization and team. That has value to many players...maybe not to Frolik...but it the right strategy and only viable strategy available in this situation.

When the dust clears, and we do sign our UFAs, pay attention to what they say. I suspect it won't be that, "Chevy drives a hard bargain and I blinked because I wanted to play here so badly..." It'll be more like, "Maybe I could have made a bit more money elsewhere, but this organization is so classy and player-friendly, and the team so tight that I chose to stay here..."
The ones that just want the most money won't come/stay here. Frolik's decision will speak louder than words and will reflect his values, rather than Chevy's competence as a negotiator.
Stay tuned.

Like I said elsewhere, Chevy did not have to go through with arbitration if he did not want that negativity. But, at the very least he could have waited it out till the last minute. That 'nice guy' argument doesn't explain quitting so early. Would it have made any difference at all? Like I've also said before, probably not. Probably is not certainly. There was nothing to lose by waiting to the last minute.

 

[SLAYER]

I should probably stop getting sucked in to these circular discussions, but I'll try once more, and that is it...for now .
There was something to lose by playing it out, something small but significant.
Let's assume Chevy is a smart man, who knew, as arbitration approached, that there was 0 chance he would meet Frolik's salary demands last year. Frolik knew he'd lose nothing by asking for the moon and waiting for UFA if he did not get it. If that was the case, and I believe it was, then the "third period" was not last year, but is just coming up now. Chevy realized that, and also knew his best chance to nab Fro was to behave like a mensch in the interim and hope that Frolik chose to stay with a great organization, all other things being equal. Arbitration is a negative, potentially divisive force in that scenario.
The number of false analogies used to critique Chevy's approach is amazing.He is not a desperate car salesman looking for a sale at any price. What he is selling comes at a relatively fixed price, backed up by a great organization and team. That has value to many players...maybe not to Frolik...but it the right strategy and only viable strategy available in this situation.

When the dust clears, and we do sign our UFAs, pay attention to what they say. I suspect it won't be that, "Chevy drives a hard bargain and I blinked because I wanted to play here so badly..." It'll be more like, "Maybe I could have made a bit more money elsewhere, but this organization is so classy and player-friendly, and the team so tight that I chose to stay here..."
The ones that just want the most money won't come/stay here. Frolik's decision will speak louder than words and will reflect his values, rather than Chevy's competence as a negotiator.
Stay tuned.

Excellent post.

 

[KingBogo]

Like I said elsewhere, Chevy did not have to go through with arbitration if he did not want that negativity. But, at the very least he could have waited it out till the last minute. That 'nice guy' argument doesn't explain quitting so early. Would it have made any difference at all? Like I've also said before, probably not. Probably is not certainly. There was nothing to lose by waiting to the last minute.

I'm in agreement with you Mort, but also agree this debate has run in circles and people see it different ways which is all fine. I'll just add you don't necessarily need to rip the player a new one in an arbitration hearing. But rather merely point out what comparable players are getting paid. IMO Chevy is capable of walking that line. There was a relatively narrow gap within which the arbitrator was likely to rule anyways. And Chevy was the one who elected to go to arbitration in the 1st place.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm in agreement with you Mort, but also agree this debate has run in circles and people see it different ways which is all fine. I'll just add you don't necessarily need to rip the player a new one in an arbitration hearing. But rather merely point out what comparable players are getting paid. IMO Chevy is capable of walking that line. There was a relatively narrow gap within which the arbitrator was likely to rule anyways. And Chevy was the one who elected to go to arbitration in the 1st place.

Agree with that. I was not interested in ever bringing this up again but someone else did and that prompted others to make statements that I just cannot ignore. The whole issue is old news.

I think the problem in arbitration hearings starts to surface as soon as the 2 sides give their lists of comparable players. They could be very different and then of course each side has to justify their comparables. Pretty hard to avoid saying critical things.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I think what we are starting to see and will see more of moving forward is a distinct salary grid. Star players will make a lot and this will squeeze other players. What we have seen with teams that are getting into cap trouble is the overpaying of complimentary players. While Frolik is a good hockey player, he is still just a mid high 30's low 40 point complimentary player on a contending team. These are precisely the players you avoid opening a wallet for IMO. Of Walsh is asking for 5 million I'm fine with walking as a player line Burmie might bring most of what Frolik does for half the price.

I disagree on a couple of levels:

1) I don't think teams get into cap trouble by overpaying complementary players so much as they get into trouble by giving money and term to aging players that are overvalued, usually for possessing overrated traits (eg. shot blocking, stay at home ability, "truculence") or for recent production that is largely unsustainable.

2) I have little or no expectation that Burmi will return to Winnipeg. If in fact he does return, I have even less expectation that he'll be an adequate replacement for Frolik. He can certainly do some of the things that Frolik does well, but I don't see him as a viable plan B.

It's not to say that overpaying someone like Frolik won't cause cap trouble down the road, but it's mitigated by the fact that you'll get at least half of the span of his contract during prime years. Also by the fact that his defensive abilities are extremely valuable, and getting a player of similar ability will inevitably require an overpayment.

In the end, it probably comes down to my personal view that a forward like Frolik will be absolutely integral if this team is looking to contend 2 or 3 years down the road. Don't expect everyone to agree with that.

 

[Hunter368]

Burmi $1M 1yr show me contract. He's a lot cheaper than half of what frolik will cost.

No way Burmi's signs with the Jets for 1mil.

 

[Aavco Cup]

No way Burmi's signs with the Jets for 1mil.

I doubt anyone pays him much more than that. After 1 more season he will have arbitration rights and will get paid appropriately if he deserves it. IMO if he wants back in the NHL , that's his only way back.

 

[surixon]

I disagree on a couple of levels:

1) I don't think teams get into cap trouble by overpaying complementary players so much as they get into trouble by giving money and term to aging players that are overvalued, usually for possessing overrated traits (eg. shot blocking, stay at home ability, "truculence") or for recent production that is largely unsustainable.

2) I have little or no expectation that Burmi will return to Winnipeg. If in fact he does return, I have even less expectation that he'll be an adequate replacement for Frolik. He can certainly do some of the things that Frolik does well, but I don't see him as a viable plan B.

It's not to say that overpaying someone like Frolik won't cause cap trouble down the road, but it's mitigated by the fact that you'll get at least half of the span of his contract during prime years. Also by the fact that his defensive abilities are extremely valuable, and getting a player of similar ability will inevitably require an overpayment.

In the end, it probably comes down to my personal view that a forward like Frolik will be absolutely integral if this team is looking to contend 2 or 3 years down the road. Don't expect everyone to agree with that.

I would take Frolik over Burmie myself quite easily, I'm not even a Burmie fan per say. I'm just trying to put on my management hat and see why there doesn't seem to be much desperation on Chevy's part to get a deal done.

While your point about getting 2-3 prime years is a good one, i'd counter that it may not be about prime years and more about role moving forward. For instance with Ehlers close they may only envision Frolik as a top 6 player on this team for one to two more years before sliding into a third line role when Ehlers is ready. Perhaps given that role management is only prepared to offer 2nd/third line money. If Frolik is seeking upper end 2nd line money then perhaps that's where the impasse lies.

If that is the case than my point about having an overpaid third liner still holds.

 

[Hunter368]

I doubt anyone pays him much more than that. After 1 more season he will have arbitration rights and will get paid appropriately if he deserves it. IMO if he wants back in the NHL , that's his only way back.

I think his first contract back will be more, not dramatically more you do have good points.

I think 1.5-1.75 mil.

 

[veganhunter]

Short of a ridiculous overpayment keep Frolik and replace Stafford with Ehlers. That's by far the best option IMO.

 

[sully1410]

I personally don't think that Frolik is really part of the long term Winnipeg Jets plan. I'd keep on contract long enough time until one of our prospects can replace him and be better at it then he is.

As for losing him for nothing, too much is made of it IMO. There comes a time when you are a contending team, based around your core players, that you let UFAs walk. Either because they don't fit, or you have a better option in house, or there is better option via free agency.

I personally don't see him as a member of the Jets past 2 years from now...because by then a lot of our better end prospects are going to be entering into the big leagues and we won't need Fro-yo anyways. Not only.our better prospects like Ehlers, Petan and Armia...but other ones like Lemieux, Kosmachuk, Copp etc.)

I'd do 4.5×2yrs.

 

[Duke749]

Won't need Frolik? Just have prospects better and replace him? I think you're either underestimating how good Frolik is, or overestimating prospects.

Because of above average drafting, we'll be able to lesson the loss of Frolik, but none of our prospects will fill the void potentially left by Frolik. Burmi is the only one with the combination of defense and offense similar to Frolik.

I think another thing that could help lesson his loss is continued growth of Scheif and Lowry.

But hey, I could be wrong and you could be right sully. And if that happens, the Jets are GOLDEN.

 

[Huffer]

Even if I knew in the future that Frolik wasn't in the plans, and/or knew that enough of our prospects would "make it" to the point that Frolik could be replaced, I would think it would still be my strategy to sign Frolik to the type of deal that when that day came, there was still some term on Frolik's contract.
That way I could move Frolik for possibly some picks to keep the pipeline stocked.

 

[Duke749]

Even if I knew in the future that Frolik wasn't in the plans, and/or knew that enough of our prospects would "make it" to the point that Frolik could be replaced, I would think it would still be my strategy to sign Frolik to the type of deal that when that day came, there was still some term on Frolik's contract.
That way I could move Frolik for possibly some picks to keep the pipeline stocked.

That would certainly be ideal. Think the Jets are moving close to that point. But they might be a year or two away.

 

[Daximus]

I'm going to ask this here as I'm not sure where else to ask this. But Cody Franson is set to become a free agent this summer. I haven't watched him much but based on what I've read he is an offensive dman that takes chances, can be physical and is somewhat inconsistant, though has a good shot and can be a catalyst on the PP. Depending on what he commands as far as price and term, could he be a poor mans Buff? If we could sign him for the right price on a short term deal, until JoMo is ready to step into a top 4 role permanently, could he be a viable option to replace buff with? Then we can trade buff straight across for either a LHD or another forward, or futures.

 

[Huffer]

That would certainly be ideal. Think the Jets are moving close to that point. But they might be a year or two away.

That's kind of what I'm saying though. If they can get Frolik signed for a decent deal and term that's great IMO. If some prospects come up in a year or two that make Frolik and his contract possibly expendable that's ok too because now you can turn Frolik into more assets. If those prospects don't make it to the point that they make Frolik expendable, then the team still has Frolik.

 

[Huffer]

I'm going to ask this here as I'm not sure where else to ask this. But Cody Franson is set to become a free agent this summer. I haven't watched him much but based on what I've read he is an offensive dman that takes chances, can be physical and is somewhat inconsistant, though has a good shot and can be a catalyst on the PP. Depending on what he commands as far as price and term, could he be a poor mans Buff? If we could sign him for the right price on a short term deal, until JoMo is ready to step into a top 4 role permanently, could he be a viable option to replace buff with? Then we can trade buff straight across for either a LHD or another forward, or futures.

If we're moving Buff it's partly because of money, and partly because we already have Myers and Trouba on the right. Franson is going to get more money than he deserves due to the inflated UFA market so that kind of negates a lot of the money reason to move Buff. And he also plays on the right, so we're in the same position of having a extremely expensive right side (when Trouba gets his raise).

I don't see a fit from a roster perspective, nor a cap management perspective myself.

 

[CaptainChef]

Whereabouts?

Ladd - Little - Wheeler

Perrault - Scheifele - Ehlers/Stafford

Burmie - Lowry - Ehlers/Stafford

I doubt Burmie comes back to play on the 4th line.

I really want Fro & Burmi both. Staff & Ehlers as well. I see no problem with one of Burmi/Staff fitting in on the fourth line (as long as we give them an appropriate salary).

There will be plenty of injuries, always is, so they won't stay on the 4th line very long. That & playing their way up.

A 4th line of Thorbs - Copp - Burmi/Staff sounds mighty fine to me.

Hey that doesn't even take into consideration that one of Stemp or Tlusty may be convinced to come back for a cheap price.

 

[CaptainChef]

Like I said elsewhere, Chevy did not have to go through with arbitration if he did not want that negativity. But, at the very least he could have waited it out till the last minute. That 'nice guy' argument doesn't explain quitting so early. Would it have made any difference at all? Like I've also said before, probably not. Probably is not certainly. There was nothing to lose by waiting to the last minute.

That's the biggest problem I have with the way that went for sure. Yes, we have no idea if that might have been as best as Chevy could do, but when have you ever seen real negotiations that break off 2 days.

It was a mistake by Chevy. Even if nothing happened in those last two days, it wouldn't have made him look so lackadaisical about negotiating -- giving in essentially two days before the deadline