Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Stars 0

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's funny you say this - I was thinking about it last night. Let's say the Stars win the division by 4 points over us.

Now think about the sheer number of loser points they got this year.

If the Jets didn't have one of their 2 losing steaks we'd win handily, and aren't we near the top of the league for regulation wins?

I think it's a lot closer than some think. Also it really doesn't matter as head to head matchups are much more important in the playoffs anyways.

Some teams just have other teams numbers.

The Knights and the Stars worry me for this reason. The other teams in the west? Not so much.

A dream scenario is those 2 get knocked out in the first round Avs we advance

Not near the top. At the top, 1st in RW, 2nd in ROW

 

[Gm0ney]

Ever consider that Pavelec's regression was perhaps due to his "lifestyle"? I was once on the Fire Flaherty bandwagon too. I think that he has helped both Helly and Larry. Remember when Helly's weak spot was "high, glove side"? Not anymore except hen he looks tired. Both current Jets' goalies don't move around much, very efficient and not as energy-draining. (Watch Wolfe in Calgary for the antithesis. Their goalie coach has got to get that under control if he's going to be The Guy there.) The Jets finally got rid of Huddy with reason and they've kept Flaherty with reason.

Go Jets Go!

Pavelec didn't regress. He was never very good. Among the worst starting goalies in the NHL during his time in Winnipeg:

2009-10: .906 (.005 below NHL SV% average)
2010-11: .914 (.001 above)
2011-12: .906 (.008 below) (Chevy signs him to 5 x $3.9M deal)
2012-13: .905 (.006 below) (After this season I said the Jets should buy him out - 1/3 cheap rate)
2013-14: .901 (.013 below) (Chevy gets real mad about questions about Pavs sucking)
2014-15: .920 (.005 above) (Chevy's patience rewarded! Pavs has a below avg. season cooking until 12 games where he's just lights out. Playoffs begin and he's back to his old terrible self though. Ducks sweep)
2015-16: .904 (.011 below) (Last year as a starter)

So 5 below average seasons out of 7. His best was .005 above. Worst was .013 below.

Hellebuyck, for comparison:

2015-16: .918 (.003 above)
2016-17: .907 (.006 below)
2017-18: .924 (.012 above)
2018-19: .913 (.003 above)
2019-20: .922 (.012 above)
2020-21: .916 (.008 above)
2021-22: .910 (.003 above)
2022-23: .920 (.016 above)
2023-24: .920 (.016 above)

One below average season out of 9. Best was .016 above (twice*). Worst was .006 below - which I believe was his only season below average in any league he's ever played in.

* Still 3 games to go season

 

[Howard Chuck]

It’s now very clear that our superpower is our depth. Stanley stepping up, Bro playing like a starter, and the logjam of forwards just itching to get in the lineup.

I almost don’t want to say it out loud, but I think we can weather an injury at any position and not suffer.

When this team plays like last night with the quick short passes, good support etc, they are so good. When we shorten the bench and play for home runs, we aren’t very good at all. Hopefully that type of game is behind us.

On Stan…. If he continues to find his physical game, he will be a force (I don’t mean fighting because he’s not very good at that). I would love to see him hitting, using his height and reach and just generally being an aggressive pest.

High hopes for this team if they can see what got them here, and stick to it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

To be fair, the people arguing that Connor and Scheifele shouldn’t be together were basing that off five years of data, rather than one (excellent as it was) game.

The biggest positive takeaway from me this game is the Jets are still capable of playing their system and how they played in December. It seems like they hadn’t played that Bones defensive hockey for a while, and I think the posters that have attributed that to attrition might be right. They played fantastic defensive hockey last night and completely neutered Dallas.

They’re now picking up momentum heading into the playoffs which is refreshing compared to stumbling in like in past seasons.

And they weren't wrong.
Team play wins despite questionable lineup decisions.
Bottom line is, who cares about those decisions as long as it works?
That 'bad' 1st line is the same one we had when we were 1st overall in the league. If we can return to the game that got us there, I don't care that Ehlers is on the 2nd line.

I'm still concerned with the STs. But they are less important in the PO when the refs swallow their whistles.

 

[Duke749]

Owned bitches!!!

 

[Duke749]

It’s now very clear that our superpower is our depth. Stanley stepping up, Bro playing like a starter, and the logjam of forwards just itching to get in the lineup.

I almost don’t want to say it out loud, but I think we can weather an injury at any position and not suffer.

When this team plays like last night with the quick short passes, good support etc, they are so good. When we shorten the bench and play for home runs, we aren’t very good at all. Hopefully that type of game is behind us.

On Stan…. If he continues to find his physical game, he will be a force (I don’t mean fighting because he’s not very good at that). I would love to see him hitting, using his height and reach and just generally being an aggressive pest.

High hopes for this team if they can see what got them here, and stick to it.

We have 2-3 nhl caliber forwards that can’t even get in the line up regularly. And with Stanley improving there’s two nhl caliber defensemen that can’t get in the lineup.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pavelec regressed HEAVILY under flats. so any polish Flats put on was worse than what he was given to start with.
a bunch of those tweeners got worse under him as well...

But Helle and LB have both thrived under.

IN LB's first go around with the Jets it was suggested that Helle was a good influence on him. Maybe Flaherty's influence is small either way. Who knows?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Having trouble figuring out what constitutes a goalie getting a "game played" designation. Maybe he can just come in for a period or something like that. If it is something like that i would hope the Jets do their damndest to make it happen.

AFAIK - don't take that to the bank - it wouldn't even take a period. Just appear on the scoresheet. Come in for 1 minute.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

View attachment 850415

An iconic mask and an iconic player.

 

[WolfHouse]

And they weren't wrong.
Team play wins despite questionable lineup decisions.
Bottom line is, who cares about those decisions as long as it works?
That 'bad' 1st line is the same one we had when we were 1st overall in the league. If we can return to the game that got us there, I don't care that Ehlers is on the 2nd line.

I'm still concerned with the STs. But they are less important in the PO when the refs swallow their whistles.

If we roll four lines like last night then Im not as worried about CSV - maybe they find their game maybe not... but the ship on Ehlers-Scheif has sailed so time to let go

Last night was a nice win - next test is not coming out flat in the first on Saturday

 

[Royale With Cheese]

When is Niederreiter back, does anyone know?

I'm assuming Slow Gus sits when that happens.

 

[WolfHouse]

When is Niederreiter back, does anyone know?

I'm assuming Slow Gus sits when that happens.

I mean the line of Gus-Scheif-Apples got our second goal.... maybe we move him to the top line....

 

[buggs]

When we have a shit period usually it’s because the other team is having a good period not because we randomly went into the tank.

The full post is brilliant, great job ps241.

Because I like to pick nits I would suggest that I think "usually" is a bit too generous. There have been a great many periods where the other team is made to look stellar because our guys have disconnected from the controller. We continue to have the habit (not last night) of showing up for 20-40 minutes per game. Last night looked like pre-January games where the Jets were routinely showing up for the full 60. The likely cause of the wane is the length of the season and fair enough, as you point out.

Unquestionably there are moments when the Jets get outplayed by a team performing better than they are in the moment. That's the frustration of sports though - you can play stellar hockey and still lose but you can also play poorly and still win.

If the Jets can get to the playoffs and manage to compete every game like they did last night and through December they can legitimately beat anyone. Arguably the best goalie in the league and tremendous depth both in forwards and defense.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, they wouldn't be as big...

Ken Dryden vs Connor Hellebuyck - both 6'4" goalies - but look at Hellebuyck's arms and shoulders. His glove and blocker are bulkier. Plus the square leg pads allows him to seal off the bottom of the ice. Gotta think Helle's peripheral vision is much better with the new style masks as well. And Hellebuyck's kit weighs a lot less and doesn't absorb sweat and water from the ice surface to get heavier as the game goes on...
View attachment 850415View attachment 850416

All good points. I think the weight of the equipment in particular gets overlooked as a factor.

Blocker looks same size to me, but now mounted on the glove so that it extends much further up the arm. Not sure how that affects its use.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

Sportsnet f's me again!

 

[Gm0ney]

All good points. I think the weight of the equipment in particular gets overlooked as a factor.

Blocker looks same size to me, but now mounted on the glove so that it extends much further up the arm. Not sure how that affects its use.

The whole blocker apparatus is thicker from bottom of arm to top of blocker. Like rotating the blocker edgewise it's quite a bit wider. Dryden's was a 1" blocker on top of a thinner glove. Everything is just thicker everywhere. And lighter.

 

[Dirtbag151]

When is Niederreiter back, does anyone know?

I'm assuming Slow Gus sits when that happens.

Bones says he hopes he will play saturday

 

[Skidooboy]

But Helle and LB have both thrived under.

IN LB's first go around with the Jets it was suggested that Helle was a good influence on him. Maybe Flaherty's influence is small either way. Who knows?

they also hired a "consultant" which is pretty conclusive to my eyes...Flats wasn't good enough so they went elsewhere...

 

[Buffdog]

All good points. I think the weight of the equipment in particular gets overlooked as a factor.

Blocker looks same size to me, but now mounted on the glove so that it extends much further up the arm. Not sure how that affects its use.

The flip side to this is that shooters have much better sticks these days and the shot velocity and speed of release has gone up across the board

These feather light composite sticks with customizable curves and kick points vs a Sherwood 5030 is close to as big of a difference as the goalie equipment. There's some degree of the two cancelling each other out

 

[Gm0ney]

The flip side to this is that shooters have much better sticks these days and the shot velocity and speed of release has gone up across the board

These feather light composite sticks with customizable curves and kick points vs a Sherwood 5030 is close to as big of a difference as the goalie equipment. There's some degree of the two cancelling each other out

It's a bit of an arms race...but the goalies were definitely winning it up until the equipment rule changes a few years ago.

The first sustained decline in SV% happened after the league expanded from 6 teams in 1966-67 to 21 teams by 1979-80, bottoming out at .873 in 1983-84.

Around 1986-87 the SV% trend starts rising, peaking at .915 in 2014-15 and 2015-16.

Since then it's been sliding back down towards .900 (the long term average). It's currently at .904 this season and was also .904 last season.

 

[AlphaLackey]

And even then you still get the double wtf finals like Oilers Canes in 2006

"Double WTF finals" is pretty awesome. Yeah, that describes the 2006 finals for sure. Some finals are a regular "who's who"; that one was a regular ".. who's THAT?"

 

[WolfHouse]

It's a bit of an arms race...but the goalies were definitely winning it up until the equipment rule changes a few years ago.

The first sustained decline in SV% happened after the league expanded from 6 teams in 1966-67 to 21 teams by 1979-80, bottoming out at .873 in 1983-84.

Around 1986-87 the SV% trend starts rising, peaking at .915 in 2014-15 and 2015-16.

Since then it's been sliding back down towards .900 (the long term average). It's currently at .904 this season and was also .904 last season.
View attachment 850508

You can see the three main eras of the modern NHL...
- players mostly drunk
- rise of cocaine fuelled scoring
- equipment gets bigger

 

[AlphaLackey]

To be clear to everyone, when I said Dallas to "win the division", that meant the regular season. With the wildcard format, I only really think of being able to win a conference in the post season, or of course the grand salami.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The flip side to this is that shooters have much better sticks these days and the shot velocity and speed of release has gone up across the board

These feather light composite sticks with customizable curves and kick points vs a Sherwood 5030 is close to as big of a difference as the goalie equipment. There's some degree of the two cancelling each other out

I'll agree that there is some degree of cancelling out. Not all of it though. JMO, but I'd still say it isn't all that close. I'll grant that shots are harder but what is the difference in the time a goalie has to react to a 90 mph shot vs a 100 mph shot from 20 ft away? Or 85 vs 95? I'm too lazy to do the math but it can't be much, even from 40 ft away.

 

[Buffdog]

I'll agree that there is some degree of cancelling out. Not all of it though. JMO, but I'd still say it isn't all that close. I'll grant that shots are harder but what is the difference in the time a goalie has to react to a 90 mph shot vs a 100 mph shot from 20 ft away? Or 85 vs 95? I'm too lazy to do the math but it can't be much, even from 40 ft away.

It's not just the velocity, it's how the sticks load. Releases have become way quicker and more deceptive