Post-Game Talk: Jets 3 - Stars 0

[WPGChief]

If we roll four lines like last night then Im not as worried about CSV - maybe they find their game maybe not... but the ship on Ehlers-Scheif has sailed so time to let go

Last night was a nice win - next test is not coming out flat in the first on Saturday

It's pretty clear that the Jets are not interested in 27-55-X. Whether that's because Ehlers tries too hard with more minutes, or Scheifele doesn't try hard enough, or they don't have the chemistry we think they do (even though 27-55 together are the 3rd best on the team this year in terms of forward combos for both the C±/60 and xGF/60 they generate on the ice together (of which 27-81 and 27-13 are in first and second for either of those, lol)), or Bowness likes to spread out his offensive talent, or Scheifele wants to play with Connor instead of Ehlers, etc. - whatever it is, it's not happening unless 81 gets injured again.

It's unfortunate, considering that if they don't find their game or get it going or whatever, that the likely expectation is that they'll be outscored while munching up most of the available minutes at 5v5 (~30%) - and given that the Lowry line will eat up another ~25% of that time to matchup against the opponent's best to minimize the bleed, that's a lot of pressure to put on the Jets special teams (which have been struggling all year!) and the 2nd and 4th lines to make up for the expected deficit. I suppose the added advantage is Hellebuyck keeping things even closer so perhaps they only need to make up maybe just 1 goal instead of 2-3 - but generally speaking, it's better to rely on scoring more than your opponent (i.e. winning games 5-3) than preventing them from scoring more than you (i.e. winning games 2-1).

Nevertheless, there simply is no more runway to either try out something different or get the buy-in necessary - that should have happened months ago. Teams are gearing up for "playoff mode" and clearly the folks in the locker room with the most influence (be that coaching staff or the players that have the most minutes) believe that this is the way forward - so, onward they go.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

they also hired a "consultant" which is pretty conclusive to my eyes...Flats wasn't good enough so they went elsewhere...

I can't regurgitate it for you but when we were going hard at Flats a few years ago some posters chimed in with a list of limitations on what a team goalie coach can and can't do. They were surprisingly limited. Whereas an external consutant can do whatever he wants, or whatever the goalie wants.

Just one aspect was the fact that the team's coach can't do extra practice. CBA limits the amount of practice time, especially in the off-season.

So goalies go to those "consultants" for work they just can't get from the goalie coach. Mostly those coaches just concentrate on having them ready for the start of the game.

I wonder which goalies do NOT employ a goalie coach of their own?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we roll four lines like last night then Im not as worried about CSV - maybe they find their game maybe not... but the ship on Ehlers-Scheif has sailed so time to let go

Last night was a nice win - next test is not coming out flat in the first on Saturday

There was not a lot of ST time last night. That will have helped even out the TOI. The pp2 should be getting the bulk of the pp TOI IMO, until the pp1 starts playing better.

It seemed to me that KC went back to making an effort to play D, like he had done earlier in the season. I think he dropped that when he came back from injury. Just forgot, I guess.

He still is not good defensively but making an effort is a lot better than no effort at all. Hope he keeps it up. All he needs to do is use his speed to keep up with the puck carrier and try to stick check him. If all that accomplishes is to throw the guy off his timing a bit it improves the chances of regaining possession by a lot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I read post 208 and had a good laugh. Then I read posts like this and 219 and go back to 208 and start laughing all over again.

With all the other changes he made, Bones could have made room for that 1 more. Miller needs to play more to find out if he can do the job for us or not. He doesn't need to clear a high bar to at least match Pionk's contribution.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's pretty near the time he needs to be sitting on some other teams bench.

I think we need to move 1 of Pionk or Schmidt in the off-season for cap reasons if nothing else. I keep going back and forth on which one. Early in the season Pionk was playing better but he has regressed. Bones doesn't seem to hesitate in benching Schmidt though.

Honestly, I'd like to see both gone but we don't have enough replacements and if we are going to lose Dillon and DeMelo we may need to keep both.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

I feel shame for not predicting the David Gustafson would be the boost the Jets needed...

Great one! I feel shame for not predicting apps would go off and get 2 apples

 

[Gm0ney]

With all the other changes he made, Bones could have made room for that 1 more. Miller needs to play more to find out if he can do the job for us or not. He doesn't need to clear a high bar to at least match Pionk's contribution.

I can't imagine the bar Miller would need to clear to supplant Pionk. Bones, for some unknown reason, trusts Pionk on defense...

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Personally, later games work better for me so that would actually be ideal; however, I recognize that this is not the case for the majority of fans.

When you go those late starts suck. Watching at home, that's fine

 

[10Ducky10]

I would love to see an exhibition game where todays players use mid-1980s equipment... then see how well big and boring works...

With 1980 sticks?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's great to see how many HFJets lizards have egg on their faces this morning!

After all the gloom and doom in the lead up to the game, I even changed my prediction to a Stars' victory. Oh me of little faith! I was so blind to believe those who dumped on the coach and players, who produced glittering stats proving that this player should never play with that player, who convinced me that Pionk is a disaster, Ehlers is a waste of bench space, Toffoli is too slow, the Jets' goalie coach is always wrong, and Chevy should go out to his cabin and hang himself.

Yes, I hang my head in shame. I was deceived. When the mob cried that Perfetti should be in the game and the coach was an idiot, I raised my pitchfork along with everyone else. When the rabid mob decried Scheifele and Connor playing together and the coach was an idiot (and had numbers, oh so many numbers, to prove it!) I joined in the swell of the crowd. When the loud majority issued insults at the notion of putting Gus-Gus into a game and the coach was an idiot, I rained down my rancid disdain along with the howling mob.

But this morning I see we have 49 wins. This morning I see we have a 5 game winning streak.

And I hang my head in shame. Oh, so much shame!

All of those "oh so many numbers" are based on the standard large sample size. They are still valid, generally. But you can't apply them to one game's roster decisions. It is the exact same fallacy as using the last game, or even 2, to justify the next roster decision. That decision may or may not be a good one, but not because that small sample of data proved it.

I think most of us are guilty of that despite the fact that we know better. Data thast is valid only by virtue of being based on a mass of data cannot be applied to single games. But do we not often look at a goalie's 1 game sv%? It means very little, if anything.

It is the same as Bones seeing 1 bad game from Ehlers and reverting to a lineup that he should know with certainty is suboptimal. Come on Rick! But we have won quite a few games with that suboptimal lineup so it maybe doesn't matter so much that we have a better option (and we can prove it) if what he is doing continues to work.

 

[Stumbledore]

All of those "oh so many numbers" are based on the standard large sample size. They are still valid, generally. But you can't apply them to one game's roster decisions. It is the exact same fallacy as using the last game, or even 2, to justify the next roster decision. That decision may or may not be a good one, but not because that small sample of data proved it.

I think most of us are guilty of that despite the fact that we know better. Data thast is valid only by virtue of being based on a mass of data cannot be applied to single games. But do we not often look at a goalie's 1 game sv%? It means very little, if anything.

It is the same as Bones seeing 1 bad game from Ehlers and reverting to a lineup that he should know with certainty is suboptimal. Come on Rick! But we have won quite a few games with that suboptimal lineup so it maybe doesn't matter so much that we have a better option (and we can prove it) if what he is doing continues to work.

I think you maybe missed the joke here Mort.

 

[WolfHouse]

It's pretty clear that the Jets are not interested in 27-55-X. Whether that's because Ehlers tries too hard with more minutes, or Scheifele doesn't try hard enough, or they don't have the chemistry we think they do (even though 27-55 together are the 3rd best on the team this year in terms of forward combos for both the C±/60 and xGF/60 they generate on the ice together (of which 27-81 and 27-13 are in first and second for either of those, lol)), or Bowness likes to spread out his offensive talent, or Scheifele wants to play with Connor instead of Ehlers, etc. - whatever it is, it's not happening unless 81 gets injured again.

It's unfortunate, considering that if they don't find their game or get it going or whatever, that the likely expectation is that they'll be outscored while munching up most of the available minutes at 5v5 (~30%) - and given that the Lowry line will eat up another ~25% of that time to matchup against the opponent's best to minimize the bleed, that's a lot of pressure to put on the Jets special teams (which have been struggling all year!) and the 2nd and 4th lines to make up for the expected deficit. I suppose the added advantage is Hellebuyck keeping things even closer so perhaps they only need to make up maybe just 1 goal instead of 2-3 - but generally speaking, it's better to rely on scoring more than your opponent (i.e. winning games 5-3) than preventing them from scoring more than you (i.e. winning games 2-1).

Nevertheless, there simply is no more runway to either try out something different or get the buy-in necessary - that should have happened months ago. Teams are gearing up for "playoff mode" and clearly the folks in the locker room with the most influence (be that coaching staff or the players that have the most minutes) believe that this is the way forward - so, onward they go.

It felt like bowness didn't have a preference in high stakes shifts last night... like I didn't see one line getting benched and the Jets hoping csv saves us. If that stays we could be okay

 

[KingBogo]

exactly...Helle went out and got his own goalie "consultant" .... so how good is our coach? when the Goalie needs another one?


sure...but none got better? and aside from Pavs....the rest were at best backups.and tweeners ..the point is they got worse under Flats not better. the only goalies who did? have thier own consultants

Helly has always spoken glowingly of Flats and given him a lot of credit for his development as a goalie. At the risk of bowing to authority I will do so in this case as it seems very likely to me that Helly can judge the quality of a goalie coach better than any of us.

 

[KingBogo]

they also hired a "consultant" which is pretty conclusive to my eyes...Flats wasn't good enough so they went elsewhere...

You do know team coaches can’t work with any of team players during the off season. It is part of the CBA. That is why they all have to go out and hire someone to work with in the offseason. Even before training camp when the players come into town they have to bring someone in to run then informal practices because team coaches aren’t allowed to.

 

[Stumbledore]

You do know team coaches can’t work with any of team players during the off season. It is part of the CBA. That is why they all have to go out and hire someone to work with in the offseason. Even before training camp when the players come into town they have to bring someone in to run then informal practices because team coaches aren’t allowed to.

Given many of the comments in here, I'm betting many people didn't know this.

 

[WolfHouse]

You do know team coaches can’t work with any of team players during the off season. It is part of the CBA. That is why they all have to go out and hire someone to work with in the offseason. Even before training camp when the players come into town they have to bring someone in to run then informal practices because team coaches aren’t allowed to.

Helle trains right beside Flaherty's summer home... I'd.say there's a gray area...

 

[Atoyot]

exactly...Helle went out and got his own goalie "consultant" .... so how good is our coach? when the Goalie needs another one?


sure...but none got better? and aside from Pavs....the rest were at best backups.and tweeners ..the point is they got worse under Flats not better. the only goalies who did? have thier own consultants

I went to university for classical guitar once upon a time. My guitar teacher was absolutely fantastic. He referred me to another guitar teacher to help me with certain techniques that he couldn't help me with as effectively. It's entirely possible that Flaherty is a great goalie coach and that Hellebuyck wanted to work on things that aren't Flaherty's fortés, it's also possible that Flaherty referred Hellebuyck to the consultant himself.

In a similar way, doctors refer patients to other doctors when the problem isn't something they specialize in.

 

[JetsFan815]

And since we like to beat on Bowness alot in here i think it's only fair that we give the guy some props for making some good lineup decisions for last night. Lord knows we would have been hearing what a dumbass he is if we lost. 49 wins already this season with 3 more games to hit 50 , that's a great season if you ask me. Oh and with 43 regulation wins right now we are 1st in the entire NHL . GO JETS GO .

Hate to be the grinch here but I don't give credit. In an individual game in the NHL any team is capable of hanging with any other team. Even the lowly Habs have had impressive wins including against teams like Colorado and looked good in those games.

What separates the wheat from the chaff is having your process be repeatable. That is something that has not happened with this configuration of the lineup. We have had false starts like this one before- 81-55-13 came out like shot out of a cannon in the season opener but since being re-united haven't been good, 81-55-9 had a great start and many including myself hoped that maybe 9 was the solution but they came back down to earth. With all most all variations of these lines except for one it always seem to converge to the same level about ~46% xGoals and ~48% actual goals and breaking even being the absolute ceiling (81-55-13 haven't even hit that bar).

I am not just saying this to poo-poo on things, it is just that this story has played out way too many times before. If they can repeat this with these lines over the next 3-4 games, only then in my opinion the talk of giving credit begins.

 

[Buffdog]

Hate to be the grinch here but I don't give credit. In an individual game in the NHL any team is capable of hanging with any other team. Even the lowly Habs have had impressive wins including against teams like Colorado and looked good in those games.

What separates the wheat from the chaff is having your process be repeatable. That is something that has not happened with this configuration of the lineup. We have had false starts like this one before- 81-55-13 came out like shot out of a cannon in the season opener but since being re-united haven't been good, 81-55-9 had a great start and many including myself hoped that maybe 9 was the solution but they came back down to earth. With all most all variations of these lines except for one it always seem to converge to the same level about ~46% xGoals and ~48% actual goals and breaking even being the absolute ceiling (81-55-13 haven't even hit that bar).

I am not just saying this to poo-poo on things, it is just that this story has played out way too many times before. If they can repeat this with these lines over the next 3-4 games, only then in my opinion the talk of giving credit begins.

Yet the second they put ESV together and they had a good game, you were like "haha, told you so"

Cognitive dissonance on display again for everyone to see

 

[GNP]

I think we need to move 1 of Pionk or Schmidt in the off-season for cap reasons if nothing else. I keep going back and forth on which one. Early in the season Pionk was playing better but he has regressed. Bones doesn't seem to hesitate in benching Schmidt though.

Honestly, I'd like to see both gone but we don't have enough replacements and if we are going to lose Dillion and DeMelo we may need to keep both.

I would get rid of both Pionk and Schmidt, as their overpaid for what they bring. If I had it my way, I'd keep Dillon and DeMelo, as their both solid and reliable, and at a decent cost. Personally I like bigger physical defenseman, unless their real talented like Morrissey.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Very excited for the game tomorrow, playoff hockey a week early!

 

[Duke749]

Very excited for the game tomorrow, playoff hockey a week early!

Bring it bitches!!

 

[wraithsonwings]

Guys this really isn’t important. AM chase for 70 with Leafs losing will be the talk of the sports world.
God there are days I hate Toronto

Those days end in "y".

 

[Flair Hay]

I would get rid of both Pionk and Schmidt, as their overpaid for what they bring. If I had it my way, I'd keep Dillon and DeMelo, as their both solid and reliable, and at a decent cost. Personally I like bigger physical defenseman, unless their real talented like Morrissey.

One does not simply *move* Pionk and Schmidt

 

[wraithsonwings]

Injury prone Ehlers is 3 games away from playing a full season.

Nice jinx!