Prospect Info: Jesperi Kotkaniemi Part III

[Belial]

Being a winning coach is not necessarily indicative of anything to do with development. Julien's own words and his history with vets vs. kids say so.

By the way, that Final you brought up should have an asterisk. You know this as did everyone else who watched it.

I'm completely open minded. I form my opinions based on what I see and what I interpret. I have a natural disposition to criticize incompetence, vthat's all. You pointing a finger at me is rich indeed.

Nothing rich in there, If you say you're open-minded then stop whining ffs!

 

[groovejuice]

Nothing rich in there, If you say you're open-minded then stop whining ffs!

The difference is that I'm criticizing the philosophies of the team. You're criticizing me for doing so.

I've acknowledged here that Bergevin et al made some great offseason moves. Doesn't mean they're exempt from scrutiny. The last thing I want to hear from Bergevin is that his goal is to make the playoffs. It must be to continually to improve the team in order to win the Stanley Cup. High draft picks are critical to that outcome..

Regardless of the nice start, that's most likely a pipe dream, so devoting all resources to that rather than taking the opportunity to support a short rebuild is poor management, IMO.

 

[Mrb1p]

While I think rushing prospects is a valid concern.

Is there not also just as much concern with...what's the right term...

"Over-cooking" prospects too? Can't prospects learn bad habits by dominating inferior competition?

Most overcooked prospect are just not good enough for the league, see Hudon, Desharnais. Obviously you want to bring them along at the right time.

I think Drouin also didn't benefit at all from his three junior years, he basically never got over how you play in juniors. Would that have changed if he played sooner in the NHL, like in his D+2? Maybe.

 

[Mrb1p]

I really don't know enough about that league, and especially team, to make a definitive claim on that.

Like if we were talking about him going back to Frolunda, I might have a different opinion.

Generally, Liiga and the SEL are pretty much on par, obviously Assat is bad right now, they have three good players, four if you include Kotkaniemi.

 

[groovejuice]

Don't agree here, Julien has shown that not only has he changed his views he has completely revamped his entire system. Julien can adapt, he has this mediocre team playing the best it's played in several years. I know the season is young, but CJ is leaving a mark I never thought possible. This team looks like a bottom 5 team on paper, but I'd say on pure dominance as far as dictating play goes they are doing absolutely remarkable, who would have thought that?

I don't think this is Julien's system. Nothing in his history shows that he can deviate from the coaching style he's adhered to forever. This totally looks to me like Ducharme having influence, which is fine with me, by the way.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm thrilled and surprised to see a more modern style of hockey. I just don't see this current success continuing all season. I also like some of the additions to the roster, though.

 

[Mrb1p]

I don't think this is Julien's system. Nothing in his history shows that he can deviate from the coaching style he's adhered to forever. This totally looks to me like Ducharme having influence, which is fine with me, by the way.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm thrilled and surprised to see a more modern style of hockey. I just don't see this current success continuing all season. I also like some of the additions to the roster, though.

To be honest, there was an obvious shift in coaching from when he was fired to re-hired here.

 

[cphabs]

But what's the skill that Kotka doesn't possess and he would learn going back to Finland?

He’d be played as the #1 center that he is, and allowed to learn/develop in that role. My God, do you realize that we have FINALLY drafted a large, hyper skilled, offensive center that can play a 200 foot game? We are currently playing him as a 3rd/4th line center, guess we should be greatful he has not been tried on the wing yet, on our f***ed up organization? Why? To make room for Hudon? LMFAO! Seriously! He’s f***ing 18 and we are already f***ing him up! Unbelievable!

 

[NobleSix]

What's the difference if he's taking an offensive faceoff or a defensive faceoff? It's still a damn faceoff against Crosby, Malkin and so on and not against some no name!

He will still learn!

Even when you get mainly offensive zone starts you still need to defend because you're not winning your faceoffs at 100%.

You guys are overcomplicating things IMO.

He's getting ice time, he plays on the PP, it's fine... Let him go and learn...

He played 57:10 minutes 5on5 so far Drouin is at 63:33!!!

Dude, relax. I'm trying to have a civil discussion here with you.

There is a difference between offensive zone faceoff situations and defensive zone faceoff situations. They arent the same at all, which is exactly why coaches shelter players in the first place. If there wasnt a difference, coaches wouldn't have any reason to not want to play center X for a defensive zone draw. The act of dropping the puck and winning the draw is the same, but the situations, which I'm talking about, are completely different.

Also, he hasn't been taking faceoffs and playing against top players in the most recent games if I remember correctly. And he was taken off the power play entirely at the end of last game... against Detroit... in a game where we were destroying them. I hope that isnt a sign of things to come, but it is partially what sparked my initial concerns. Since the season opener, it seems like he's being increasingly sheltered, to me at least.

Its not a question of whether he can handle it either. He's proven that he can. It's a question of whether Julien is willing to rely on an 18 year old to take on those tough assignments, which he's been increasingly reluctant to do in the most recent matches. This is exactly why I said: "IF the Habs are going to shelter him heavily and relegate him to the 3rd line, I think it would be better for his development if he were to play a bigger role with more responsibility in the AHL."

You guys see people suggesting the AHL might be a better option for him developmentally and then fly off the handle instead of addressing my actual points. Stop assuming that everyone thinks he sucks just because they'd rather see an 18 year old develop in the AHL, especially after the amount of development disasters this team has seen over the past decade. Bergevin said it himself; "The NHL isnt a development league." The AHL is just that. Like it or not, there is a sound argument to be made for wanting to see him in the AHL.

I'm not saying he's playing like shit. I'm not saying he can't handle playing against opposing top 6 talent. I'm not saying he cant develop in the NHL. I'm not saying he hasn't had ice time. I'm saying that IF the Habs decide to shelter him heavily and relegate him to the 3rd line, then I'd rather see him in the AHL.

 

[Canadienna]

Lots of good points in this thread. I think Kotka is on the edge. I can't say I have faith in the management to make the right decision with him this year, but I don't think it will be a big problem either way.

If I had my choice I'd let him play to 9 games and unless his offensive touch improves, send him to Finland (Or Laval if he is okay with it)

 

[Habsddicted]

it has nothing to do with tanking, keeping Kotka up won't impact our draft pick much, he just doesn't look very good and should never have been put in this situation. Too risky to mess up another high draft pick by rushing him to the NHL when they could have just used caution even if the right move was to have him here.

I don't know if you saw this yesterday when I posted it but I think it shows he's actually doing really good

Breaking down Canadiens rookie Jesperi Kotkaniemi's early impact

There's a bunch of little embeded gifs/videos to breakdown his first 3 games. I tought it was very well put and pretty representative of what I saw too.

 

[Monsieur Miz]

Can't wait for the Tkachuk - Kotkaniemi match-up next saturday. The only exciting thing about a Ottawa - Montreal game.

 

[montreal]

While I think rushing prospects is a valid concern.

Is there not also just as much concern with...what's the right term...

"Over-cooking" prospects too? Can't prospects learn bad habits by dominating inferior competition?

no, in the Habs system going back to at least since Andre Savard was here I don't recall anyone suffering from the Habs taking their time with but I can list several players that were rushed and regressed. Now we can point to each one and say this or that about who's fault or why but my point is if so many times it hasn't worked why risk it on the one time you hope you get it right? Like a extra year is going to cause problems, where as pushing him if he's not ready can do damage to his confidence and hockey is so much a mental game.

I don't know if you saw this yesterday when I posted it but I think it shows he's actually doing really good

Breaking down Canadiens rookie Jesperi Kotkaniemi's early impact

There's a bunch of little embeded gifs/videos to breakdown his first 3 games. I tought it was very well put and pretty representative of what I saw too.

no, I don't read his stuff, if I try I just keep thinking about how much he complained when we traded Diaz.

 

[groovejuice]

To be honest, there was an obvious shift in coaching from when he was fired to re-hired here.

I don't see it that way. He still virtually always favours vets, regardless of skill level or age degradation, and plays a too conservative play not to lose style.

These have always religiously been his go to strategies. He may indeed have adapted here and there, but I see him as the same guy with the same lack of ability to evolve and imagine.

 

[417]

no, in the Habs system going back to at least since Andre Savard was here I don't recall anyone suffering from the Habs taking their time with but I can list several players that were rushed and regressed.

No of course not...no one would would correlate that cause and effect.

But the reverse, many people do, and I'm not sure that's really based on anything concrete.

How do we know say...Michael McCarron, would be a better player today if they took their time with him?

Look at Charles Hudon, he played over 230 AHL games, is he an impact player?

Chris Higgins played 2 full years in the AHL...did that really change the player he became?

Now we can point to each one and say this or that about who's fault or why but my point is if so many times it hasn't worked why risk it on the one time you hope you get it right? Like a extra year is going to cause problems, where as pushing him if he's not ready can do damage to his confidence and hockey is so much a mental game.

But is an extra year guaranteed to be beneficial? For every player?

How does one measure what an extra year, at a lower level, do for a prospect?

I'm not straight disagreeing with you, just trying to have a better understanding of this particular view point.

Pierre McGuire often talks about how the Wild have dealt with Joel Ericksson Ek.

How when they initially brought him over, he had some success early, but they still sent him back for more "seasoning".

Well he went back...he's still not established as an NHL player.

 

[admiralcadillac]

I don't see it that way. He still virtually always favours vets, regardless of skill level or age degradation, and plays a too conservative play not to lose style.

These have always religiously been his go to strategies. He may indeed have adapted here and there, but I see him as the same guy with the same lack of ability to evolve and imagine.

Again, Danault played alot less than Kotkaniemi yestereve.

That is doubly against what this board believes is Julien's norm.

 

[BLONG7]

Can't wait for the Tkachuk - Kotkaniemi match-up next saturday. The only exciting thing about a Ottawa - Montreal game.

The battle of the strange owners..........Uncle Eugene vs Money Mol$on!!

 

[habergeon]

I've been a fan of "babying" this kid since we've drafted him, and I've seen nothing in the first 5 games to suggest he get sent back anywhere at this point. He seems very poised and he is learning, and I think he's had a very strong start to the year all things considered.

I think moving him to the 3rd line with Armia & Byron both insulates him and puts him with quality vets to help ease the transition. I also think he'll start shooting more when he gets more comfortable, but he seems like a "pass first" kind of guy (which is fine by me).

But so far, this young man seems to have ice in his veins and the pressure doesn't seem to be getting to him. Keep him another 5 and lets see. I want to see how he does against St. Louis.

 

[montreal]

No of course not...no one would would correlate that cause and effect.

But the reverse, many people do, and I'm not sure that's really based on anything concrete.

How do we know say...Michael McCarron, would be a better player today if they took their time with him?

Look at Charles Hudon, he played over 230 AHL games, is he an impact player?

Chris Higgins played 2 full years in the AHL...did that really change the player he became?


But is an extra year guaranteed to be beneficial? For every player?

How does one measure what an extra year, at a lower level, do for a prospect?

I'm not straight disagreeing with you, just trying to have a better understanding of this particular view point.

Pierre McGuire often talks about how the Wild have dealt with Joel Ericksson Ek.

How when they initially brought him over, he had some success early, but they still sent him back for more "seasoning".

Well he went back...he's still not established as an NHL player.

Only 6 Habs outscored Hudon last year, and if he didn't miss those 10 games he was on pace for the same amount of points as Byron which would leave only 5 Habs with more points and that's while playing so much with Pleks the blackhole of offense and not much in the way of PP time. To me he was developed the right way but his lack of speed, strength, size, skating could be what costs him his NHL spot if he doesn't get quicker as it's such a fast game now.

But I've said just like tanking there's no clear cut answer, do this and you win. We can't know what impact rushing or not rushing players will have on them because each is there own. Let's face it, hockey is not rocket science. You get the puck and skate and pass and shoot or try to stop the other guy from shooting/scoring. It is sooo much mental, and to me confidence is everything, when you have it, it's great but when you lose it it can be hard to get back.

This isn't about what anyone things is the right or wrong way to develop, to me it's about rushing kids over and over and it not working out so what's the harm in trying to think outside the box and do something different.

 

[GHJimmy]

Time to send him back. His play has gotten worse every game and I feel like it's better for his development if he can dominate in Finland. He can then come back next year ready to take on the role of being a first line centre. You'd be lying to yourself if you watched him play last night and thought he belongs in the NHL. He's making no impact. One year of development would do wonders for him. This kid has endless potential. Leaving him in Montreal for the entire year is going to stunt his growth. Although it's not the exact same situation, we should try to do what Vancouver did with Pettersson. Look how he turned out. Kotka could be even better.

Nothing better said! It certainly made the entire squash explained, I'm in the support of this being sent back to Finland, just that management would never do this just to save their job.

 

[Kriss E]

But is an extra year guaranteed to be beneficial? For every player?

How does one measure what an extra year, at a lower level, do for a prospect?

I'm not straight disagreeing with you, just trying to have a better understanding of this particular view point.

Pierre McGuire often talks about how the Wild have dealt with Joel Ericksson Ek.

How when they initially brought him over, he had some success early, but they still sent him back for more "seasoning".

Well he went back...he's still not established as an NHL player.

Well in some cases it might be difficult, but here we are talking about a kid that was 17 not too long ago, his physical shape is still quite adolescent, and he isn't particularly lighting things up.
So ya, pretty easy to tell he could use another year of development versus weaker players and opponents. It's really not that difficult to conclude in Kotka's case.

 

[BaseballCoach]

You're right, of course. There's always an indefinite point where greater challenges are necessary. But there's no substitute for confidence either.

It's difficult to create, and often harder to recreate once it's lost.

Most top players, other than the generational superstars, who start their careers at 18 have modest first years. It's not an issue. See how Joe Thornton did, for example. If they have strong character, they don't "lose confidence", they learn what works in the NHL and what doesn't. And they can't learn that in a league two steps down like Liiga in Finland. Nor the AHL, even though it is better than Finland.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Most top players, other than the generational superstars, who start their careers at 18 have modest first years. It's not an issue. See how Joe Thornton did, for example. If they have strong character, they don't "lose confidence", they learn what works in the NHL and what doesn't. And they can't learn that in a league two steps down like Liiga in Finland. Nor the AHL, even though it is better than Finland.

Do they have to learn that at 18, and is there absolutely nothing to learn at these levels? I don't think the answer to both of these questions is a clear yes.

 

[G0bias]

He'll be challenged just fine if he goes back to Liiga.
Jesperi's not only going in as a center this time but as the go-to guy on his team. Aside from international tournaments, he's never had the chance to be in that spot as he's always played a level above since he's 14. He'll be relied on heavily and in all situations. He'll have to deal with the expectations and responsibility for his line to make a difference whenever he's on the ice.

It's not like with Suzuki for example, who has already dominated and going back for a third season, against the same competition, in the same role, with much of the same expectations.

Last season he did really good as far as draft eligible and even D+1 standards are concerned. I'd like to see him be among the best relative to the league. And I don't mean just points, I mean scoring chances, dictating the pace and impacting the game on a greater scale - something I felt his skating last year kept him from doing on a more regular basis. Consider it a successful and valuable D+1 year if he shows all that.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Most top players, other than the generational superstars, who start their careers at 18 have modest first years. It's not an issue. See how Joe Thornton did, for example. If they have strong character, they don't "lose confidence", they learn what works in the NHL and what doesn't. And they can't learn that in a league two steps down like Liiga in Finland. Nor the AHL, even though it is better than Finland.

Do they have to learn that at 18, and is there absolutely nothing to learn at these levels? I don't think the answer to both of these questions is a clear yes.

Thing is - what they learn when they're less physical, less quick, less confident is to play safe and clean and not take any risk. That's what works for them at this stage. The antithesis of positive playmaking hockey. You want confident players who feel they know when they can take on zone and man coverage. How else can you become a good player and good producer?

It Kotkaniemi goes to the AHL I think he'll face the same issues as in the NHL, but to a lesser extent. Finland is probably best for him if the coach in Montreal doesn't put his faith and allow Kotkaniemi to properly develop.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Thing is - what they learn when they're less physical, less quick, less confident is to play safe and clean and not take any risk. That's what works for them at this stage. The antithesis of positive playmaking hockey. You want confident players who feel they know when they can take on zone and man coverage. How else can you become a good player and good producer?

It Kotkaniemi goes to the AHL I think he'll face the same issues as in the NHL, but to a lesser extent. Finland is probably best for him if the coach in Montreal doesn't put his faith and allow Kotkaniemi to properly develop.

He'll develop even more if he goes back to Finland and gets reinstated as a Junior then. He will be able to totally dominate, and domination is all the fans want to see.

Junior B even better!