Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Part 20 - Second line centre edition?

[Kojo]

They better write him a check before he has a breakout year.

 

[Miller Time]

Yeah a hard shot is useless if he telegraphs it 5 seconds before shooting. He needs to adapt and learn to snap it.

interesting take...

how do you define Caufield's shot? is it also "useless"?

JKO scored more than Caufield in the playoffs (without any time next to talented offensive linemates like Suzuki/Toffoli) and, more importantly, doubled him up in shooting %...

would seem that, in albeit a small sample size of 20 games (though 20 games in the most important/difficult/high pressure hockey performance environment), JKO was better than Caufield at adapting his shooting to the requirements of scoring...


Now, i'm certainly not arguing that JKO has a better shot than Caufield... merely pointing out, yet again, how so many of the emotional takes in this thread are either disconnected from reality, or applied completly inconsistently across player evaluations.

JKO's shooting ability is an interesting question point... through 3 seasons at the nhl level, he's struggled in the regular season (8% on 280 shots), but absolutely excelled in the post season (23% on 40 shots).

thing is, both the high and low end of his shooting efficacy are actually quite positive indicators IF WE ACCEPT THE CONTEXT.

for players with at least 100 NHL games:
of 2016 draft picks, only 14 fwds have a better than 8% (6-7 C's)
of 2017, only 10 (7-8 C's)
of his draft year, 2018, only 3 (none of them Centres)
of 2019 *50 game threshold*, only 1, not a C

So, if we're looking at JKO's shooting effectiveness as an NHL player... i fail to see how the assessment could be anything other than... he's doing pretty damn good. Regular season is on par with top players his age from the past few draft years. Post-season, while smaller in sample, puts him at an "all time" effectiveness level and comfortably ahead of our future sniper, Caufield.

his shooting, it appears, is yet another area where his actual performance leaves only reason for optimism, and yet, some look to make up critical/questioning narratives about it.

very curious process. what exactly is it about the player that makes so many posters "feel" these things that are so disconnected from reality???

 

[Miller Time]

Everything that holds him back amounts to his lack in motricity. He seems like a good kid who wants to do well, but I feel like he doesn't realize just how much work he needs.

pretty ungrounded "feeling" considering how prevalent the evidence is of his professionalism and commitment to learning... there hasn't been any indication or evidence that i've seen of questionable behavior from JKO as far as coachability and commitment to getting better... curious where your "feelings" come from?

also not sure what meaning you imply from the word "motricity"? relative to the habs roster, it's probably safe to say that his "motricity" easily ranks among the top 15-20%. We have an abundance of veteran players who make up for their lack of coordinate and effective movement ability with some combination of saavy, grit or simply icing the puck every chance they get lol...
In terms of his own development and maximizing his individual potential, absolutely... as he becomes more physically mature, improves his coordination and learns how to better leverage his considerable physical abilities, he will exponentially increase his effectiveness.

it would appear to me, based on the behaviors from him we've seen, that he appreciates better than most youth his age the need for him to diligently refine his skill set and abilities. It is, i would argue, his focused determination to improve and put in "the work he needs" to succeed that best explains why a coach like Julien decided to keep him in the nhl when the easy (and some would argue, obvious) alternative was to let him keep working on his game outside of the nHL.

 

[le_sean]

interesting take...

how do you define Caufield's shot? is it also "useless"?

JKO scored more than Caufield in the playoffs (without any time next to talented offensive linemates like Suzuki/Toffoli) and, more importantly, doubled him up in shooting %...

would seem that, in albeit a small sample size of 20 games (though 20 games in the most important/difficult/high pressure hockey performance environment), JKO was better than Caufield at adapting his shooting to the requirements of scoring...


Now, i'm certainly not arguing that JKO has a better shot than Caufield... merely pointing out, yet again, how so many of the emotional takes in this thread are either disconnected from reality, or applied completly inconsistently across player evaluations.

JKO's shooting ability is an interesting question point... through 3 seasons at the nhl level, he's struggled in the regular season (8% on 280 shots), but absolutely excelled in the post season (23% on 40 shots).

thing is, both the high and low end of his shooting efficacy are actually quite positive indicators IF WE ACCEPT THE CONTEXT.

for players with at least 100 NHL games:
of 2016 draft picks, only 14 fwds have a better than 8% (6-7 C's)
of 2017, only 10 (7-8 C's)
of his draft year, 2018, only 3 (none of them Centres)
of 2019 *50 game threshold*, only 1, not a C

So, if we're looking at JKO's shooting effectiveness as an NHL player... i fail to see how the assessment could be anything other than... he's doing pretty damn good. Regular season is on par with top players his age from the past few draft years. Post-season, while smaller in sample, puts him at an "all time" effectiveness level and comfortably ahead of our future sniper, Caufield.

his shooting, it appears, is yet another area where his actual performance leaves only reason for optimism, and yet, some look to make up critical/questioning narratives about it.

very curious process. what exactly is it about the player that makes so many posters "feel" these things that are so disconnected from reality???

You’d maybe have a semblance of a point if his playoff goals were wrist shots, but the vast majority are him crashing the net. He has an unsustainable 23% shooting percentage in the playoffs.

It’s funny how the KK progression arguments from his fan club all point specifically to goal scoring in the playoffs. Among the greats. But when it’s brought up that he has 28 points in his last 92 regular season games, it’s a bad argument.

If you can’t see the difference between Caufield’s release and KK’s release, then I don’t know what to tell you. Yeah the rookie scored less goals in the playoffs. 1 less goal. Wow. 4 more points though. Let’s not talk about that right. Or the fact he had 1 less regular season goal in 10 games than KK did in 56. Let’s not talk about that either right.

 

[Miller Time]

You’d maybe have a semblance of a point if his playoff goals were wrist shots, but the vast majority are him crashing the net. He has an unsustainable 23% shooting percentage in the playoffs.

scoring goals is what matters. Wrist shot, slap shot, snap shot, deflection, backhand et. et. is completely irrelevant. Can the player score, that's what matters.

JKO has, both regular season and post season, at a rate that puts him among the top of his respective age demographic. If he maintains that relative impact, he's a top tier player in the NHL. That's, context-wise, what he's been thus far.

In the past decade, no forward in the NHL has had anything close to a 23% shooting percentage... so again, i wonder how well you ground your takes in the reality of the NHL? I would've thought it obvious that a 20+% shooting percentage was a massive outlier.... and i specifically identified the small sample size.

the point, which remains, is that your criticism seems both inconsistent and completely absent of reasonable context.

you also didn't answer the simple question...

do you also feel or definee Caufield's shot as "useless"?

 

[le_sean]

scoring goals is what matters. Wrist shot, slap shot, snap shot, deflection, backhand et. et. is completely irrelevant. Can the player score, that's what matters.

JKO has, both regular season and post season, at a rate that puts him among the top of his respective age demographic. If he maintains that relative impact, he's a top tier player in the NHL. That's, context-wise, what he's been thus far.

In the past decade, no forward in the NHL has had anything close to a 23% shooting percentage... so again, i wonder how well you ground your takes in the reality of the NHL? I would've thought it obvious that a 20+% shooting percentage was a massive outlier.... and i specifically identified the small sample size.

the point, which remains, is that your criticism seems both inconsistent and completely absent of reasonable context.

you also didn't answer the simple question...

do you also feel or definee Caufield's shot as "useless"?

I said his release is slow. You’re denying that by making senseless arguments. “It doesn’t matter how the puck goes in”. That’s not the argument. The argument is the release on his wrist shot is slow. What the f*** are you even attempting to say?

 

[Miller Time]

I said his release is slow. You’re denying that by making senseless arguments. “It doesn’t matter how the puck goes in”. That’s not the argument. The argument is the release on his wrist shot is slow. What the f*** are you even attempting to say?

Slow relative to what exactly?

curious to what standard and with what evidence you offer the argument that his "wrist shot is slow"... or is this just another one of your "feelings"

who cares how "slow" you think or feel it is? Other observers around the team obviously feel differently about the quality of his shooting ability.

the only relevant information is whether or not it works for him to score NHL goals, which he does, at a rate that places him amongst the best of his class, and other comparable age-demographics. In the post-season, where scoring matters the most and is the most difficult, his effectiveness is off the charts.

Your argument is baseless, ungrounded, and flat out irrelevent. I simply tried to give you an opportunity to adjust it... instead you choose to double down on a piss poor take... to each their own.

 

[le_sean]

Slow relative to what exactly?

and who cares how "slow" you think it is, the only relevant information is wether or not it works for him to score NHL goals, which he does, at a rate that places him amongst the best of his class, and other comparable age-demographics. In the post-season, where scoring matters the most and is the most difficult, his effectiveness is off the charts.

Your argument is baseless, ungrounded, and flat out irrelevent. I simply tried to give you an opportunity to adjust it... instead you choose to double down on a piss poor take... to each their own.

Right my take is piss poor. Not the one where you say he’s a “top tier NHLer”

Yeah he’s an elite goal scorer man. 11 goals in his last 92 games. I’m waiting for the Rocket Richard win this season.

Oh wait just double checked. He didn’t score a goal in his final 18 regular season games in his rookie season. So that’s 11 goals in his last 110 regular season games.

 

[Miller Time]

Right my take is piss poor. Not the one where you say he’s a “top tier NHLer”

is your reading comprehension that poor?

"relative". that means: "in relation or proportion to something else".

In this case, to players of the same draft class and to players in a similar period of time compared to their draft year.

my apologies for not providing a dictionary definition for every simple word i used in my post.

 

[le_sean]

is your reading comprehension that poor?

"relative". that means: "in relation or proportion to something else".

In this case, to players of the same draft class and to players in a similar period of time compared to their draft year.

my apologies for not providing a dictionary definition for every simple word i used in my post.

Lol relative to his draft year? Yeah he has a lot of goals compared to his peers who have a fraction of his games played. It’s easy to compare him to to someone with 20 NHL games. Congrats to him. 11 goals last 110 regular season games. #elite

 

[Miller Time]

Right my take is piss poor. Not the one where you say he’s a “top tier NHLer”

Yeah he’s an elite goal scorer man. 11 goals in his last 92 games. I’m waiting for the Rocket Richard win this season.

Oh wait just double checked. He didn’t score a goal in his final 18 regular season games in his rookie season. So that’s 11 goals in his last 110 regular season games.

how many players have won the rocket richard trophy in the past decade?

news flash, JKO will likely never win that award. if that is the standard you were using to suggest JKO's shot is "useless", than I 100% agree.

I guess that means you also think Caufield, Toffoli, and every NHLer not named Ovie are also useless shooters

FYI, JKO is 4th in regular season goals of players drafted in his year. 1st among centres.
He's tied for 3rd if you count ALL nhl goals.

So i guess the 2018 draft just had a bunch of terrible shooters, eh?

 

[le_sean]

how many players have won the rocket richard trophy in the past decade?

news flash, JKO will likely never win that award. if that is the standard you were using to suggest JKO's shot is "useless", than I 100% agree.

I guess that means you also think Caufield, Toffoli, and every NHLer not named Ovie are also useless shooters

FYI, JKO is 4th in regular season goals of players drafted in his year. 1st among centres.
He's tied for 3rd if you count ALL nhl goals.

So i guess the 2018 draft just had a bunch of terrible shooters, eh?

Look whose reading comprehension is a work in progress now. If that is what you deduce from what I said, then all the power to you. A pointless endeavour.

 

[Miller Time]

Lol relative to his draft year? Yeah he has a lot of goals compared to his peers who have a fraction of his games played. It’s easy to compare him to to someone with 20 NHL games. Congrats to him. 11 goals last 110 regular season games. #elite

well, yes, if one has no ability to understand and integrate context, than i can appreciate how your piss poor take can make sense...

unfortunately, for the take, real life is not an EA sports game. A simple stat line, devoid of any context, is about a useful and convincing as a puppet without a mouth hole

JKO absolutely is an #elite NHL performer relative to his draft class. He's also #elite relative to NHL players in their D+3 years over the past 10+ years of NHL drafts... and, as we all know, ALL-TIME #elite relative to the history of under 21 NHL players scoring in the playoffs.

What will come next...
How well he'll continue to progress relative to both his age peers and relative to the entire NHL, is in his hands.

To ignore what he has proven thus far, or foolishly ignore the stark realities of age-related athletic development and progression, is, frankly, quite confusing. It is so absent of any king of logical or coherent thinking as to make me wonder if you are just pulling my leg

 

[Miller Time]

Look whose reading comprehension is a work in progress now. If that is what you deduce from what I said, then all the power to you. A pointless endeavour.

I’m waiting for the Rocket Richard win this season.

perhaps it's also writing coherence that is a challenge

 

[Habs Icing]

Le Canadien sent que Jesperi Kotkaniemi a l’un des trois meilleurs tirs du club

No doubt, he have very great shot. If he improve his decision making and shot at the right time.

Yeah sure if accuracy and release count for nothing.

 

[Habs10025]

Montreal will sign Kotkaniemi 3 years 8.700,000 ( 2.900,000 per )

 

[DAChampion]

I wonder if it would be good for Kotkaniemi's development to get a bit of PK time next year.

 

[BLONG7]

I think

Montreal will sign Kotkaniemi 3 years 8.700,000 ( 2.900,000 per )

2 years, at 2.4M per.....pure guess on my part...

 

[Le Tricolore]

No contract?

Turns out the season hasn't started yet so there's plenty of time to sign him.

 

[JuicyHam]

They better write him a check before he has a breakout year.

MB hasn't often been the dude to gamble on a player but KK might be the kind of guy you go for that longer term deal with AAV that seems very expensive now but will be a steal if he breaks out

 

[Scriptor]

His 4th year will be telling and it won't be in a good way.

WTF is that empty statement about or even worth!?

You should have just given your usual, deep Analysis, "He sucks. There, I said it, so he sucks."

 

[Scriptor]

Yeah a hard shot is useless if he telegraphs it 5 seconds before shooting. He needs to adapt and learn to snap it.

Long stick syndrome.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

I wonder if it would be good for Kotkaniemi's development to get a bit of PK time next year.

I don't see why they wouldn't, he's improved on the faceoff dot too. Giving extra responsibilities would go a long way in boosting his confidence. With Danault gone and Byron injured, he'll probably get a look.

Now as far as the discussion on KK.

IMO, he should be signed to a 2 year deal in the the 2.25-2.6M range. That's close to what Sam Bennett was signed after his ELC (1.95M 2 years). Jost was signed to a 2M 2 year deal this summer also. Similar profile.

Here are the positives for KK since the bubble:
- Ability to contribute even when he's not producing (making an impact physically, playing a grinding style which helped in playoffs at times)
- Improvements on the faceoff dot.
- Shown a willingness to shoot more (before the Dube hit and change of linemates he had 30 SOGs in first 15 GP).
- Improved his skating.

Negatives:
- We are not seeing as much creativity as when he first started in the league. That hook pass that he showed in his rookie season is something we haven't seen in a long time.
- Inconsistent stretches in terms of production.
- Trouble finding his identity as a player, is he more of a shooter, a powerforward, a playmaker? The revolving door of teammates hasn't really helped.
- Lack of gamebreaking ability, he hasn't shown so far that his vision nor his skills are at the same caliber as say a Suzuki or Caufield.
- Not much progression in terms of points since rookie season.


Now here are a few things to mention, a) KK has no control over where he was drafted. It's not his fault if for example his ultimate upside is closer to a Jordan Staal than a Kopitar or Barkov (which is fine IMO). b) The team has certainly not done him any favors in helping his development. The benching in his rookie season was already questionnable, KK did drop the ball in his sophmore season and I applaud the coaching staff for giving him a second chance in the bubble but the way they've handled him is pretty puzzling. You've invested a 3rd overall pick in this kid and you've done some pretty damageable stuff for his confidence in recent years. The benching in the SCF being the latest.

I think there is one big issue with the way KK has been handled and his lack of progression pts wise. For one, he hasn't been given consistent linemates. Yes they did provide him some support offensively which was nice, but the most minutes he's played with the same linemates was 85:53 minutes (with Anderson and Drouin). Anytime there was a slump for a winger or whoever his wingers were changed. Now if you look at Suzuki on the other hand, he played 249 mins with Anderson and Drouin and they were given a lot of leash even when the line had gone cold. Suzuki 2nd and 3rd quarters looked like this: 13 pts in 24 GP and his time on ice was 19:25 in the 2nd quarter. Now I'm not here to throw Suzuki under the bus by any means. I'm just illustrating that Suzuki was given more leash and was given stability even when his performance wasn't as good. He was given the kind of treatment you give to a young promising center, something we haven't done with KK IMO.

Finally, I don't think KK has been given the proper role on the PP. I think he'd be better off on the right wall on the 2nd unit rather than the left wall where yes although his shot is fairly decent and pretty hard (which can be good for chaos in front of the net), it takes a while for him to shoot the puck. KK has a pretty good one timer has shown on this video: we haven't used him in a spot where he can shine.

KK's narrative and treatment reminds a lot of Bennett's in CGY (who also had the reputation of stepping it up in the PO), Bennett was yo-yo'd by the organization and never really found his identity as a player and they gave up on his offensive upside and threw him into a bottom 6 role. Now the sample size might be too small to declare that FLA made a brilliant move but how about some patience with KK and readjusting expectations in his case?

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Le Canadien sent que Jesperi Kotkaniemi a l’un des trois meilleurs tirs du club

No doubt, he have very great shot. If he improve his decision making and shot at the right time.

so no one knows what was said in this article? i don't do duh fransays

 

[Belial]

so no one knows what was said in this article? i don't do duh fransays

The organization believes KK has one of the best shots on the team.