Player Discussion Jeff Skinner

[Royisgone]

He's the worst forward on the team aside from Eakin.

The only leverage GMKA has to get Skinner to waive his NMC is to threaten a buyout. A buyout this offseason would cost skinner $24million in earnings.

If Skinner waives:
Retain 50% and throw a bunch of high draft picks, including 1st rounders at somebody to take him. And have 4.5 mil in dead cap for 6 seasons.

If there's no takers in a trade, waive him to Rochester on the understanding we loan him to the Marlies. And we save 1 mil a season and eat the 8 mil in dead cap for the next 6 seasons.

If he still won't waive just bite the bullet and buy him out. We save 7.5 mil in cap 3 out of the next 4 seasons and save 0 in 1 of the 4.

There is no value whatsoever in doing something like that.

The value move with Skinner is to get him back to doing what he does best: scoring goals. He is a 1 dimensional player but that's OK, as long as he is scoring his goals.

The problem this year is 1) he had a HC who hated him and refused to put him in a position to be successful and 2) the puck just isn't going in for him, despite getting really good chances from good spots on the ice all season long.

 

[K8fool]

I was a big defender of Skinner while he was relegated to the 4th line under Krueger. Now he's not, and it appears his impact has decreased, even with good linemates. Somebody post a fa

Vet enthusiasm w little to play for w new linemates etc.. I'm not sure how to tell other than last season drought which was suggested an injury... Not defending output but no way to predict til next year. . ive seen flashes but no stat will be a crystal jeff ball..

 

[K8fool]

Vet enthusiasm w little to play for w new linemates etc.. I'm not sure how to tell other than last season drought which was suggested an injury... Not defending output but no way to predict til next year. . ive seen flashes but no stat will be a crystal jeff ball

 

[K8fool]

I think you get your nancy stats the next two nights as He is getting Cozens and R2.. Let's see if he scores 1 tonight and two tomorrow w two gung ho kids digging out and shooting pucks for him.

 

[BFLO]

Yes, until he signs with another team and "double-dips" getting paid on the new contract and by the Sabres. I'd be surprised if (and barring injury), by the time his Sabres contract is off the books he lost more than half that $24M value.

But I agree with your sentiment re: strategy / approach.

I think there's about a 0% chance skinner makes 24mil double dipping elsewhere. He'd be getting 1 year prove it deals getting paid like a 4th liner until he proves he's worth a real contract. And he'd have to move away from his family anyway. So he'd be better off just accepting a trade or assignment to the AHL.

 

[BFLO]

There is no value whatsoever in doing something like that.

The value move with Skinner is to get him back to doing what he does best: scoring goals. He is a 1 dimensional player but that's OK, as long as he is scoring his goals.

The problem this year is 1) he had a HC who hated him and refused to put him in a position to be successful and 2) the puck just isn't going in for him, despite getting really good chances from good spots on the ice all season long.

I think the chance that he recovers to be a 35+ goal scorer are slim even if he's gifted 20 minutes a night with Eichel on the first line and 1st unit pp time.

There's an opportunity cost to giving Skinner all that ice time because that time could be going to a better player and the team could be winning more games.

I'd rather maximize the play on the ice and win more games than maximize Skinners value. Obviously doing both would be the ideal, but I'm pretty convinced Skinner is cooked.

 

[Gras]

I think the chance that he recovers to be a 35+ goal scorer are slim even if he's gifted 20 minutes a night with Eichel on the first line and 1st unit pp time.

There's an opportunity cost to giving Skinner all that ice time because that time could be going to a better player and the team could be winning more games.

I'd rather maximize the play on the ice and win more games than maximize Skinners value. Obviously doing both would be the ideal, but I'm pretty convinced Skinner is cooked.

Skinner doesn't need 1st unit PP, he scored 32 at ES in 18-19 and he didn't start the season on Jacks line.

 

[Sabre Dance]

I think the chance that he recovers to be a 35+ goal scorer are slim even if he's gifted 20 minutes a night with Eichel on the first line and 1st unit pp time.

There's an opportunity cost to giving Skinner all that ice time because that time could be going to a better player and the team could be winning more games.

I'd rather maximize the play on the ice and win more games than maximize Skinners value. Obviously doing both would be the ideal, but I'm pretty convinced Skinner is cooked.

He'll score 30 2 more times in his career.

 

[Fjordy]

Skinner bad at PP. His passes and decision making looked bad.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

He'll score 30 2 more times in his career.

I think that his contract prohibits him from being sent to the ECHL.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

There is no value whatsoever in doing something like that.

The value move with Skinner is to get him back to doing what he does best: scoring goals. He is a 1 dimensional player but that's OK, as long as he is scoring his goals.

The problem this year is 1) he had a HC who hated him and refused to put him in a position to be successful and 2) the puck just isn't going in for him, despite getting really good chances from good spots on the ice all season long.

The puck isn’t going in for him because he shoots it at the goalies crest instead of the corners.

He’s the only goal scorer in the league that’s not a sniper. All the others can pick a corner and hit it.

 

[Gras]

The puck isn’t going in for him because he shoots it at the goalies crest instead of the corners.

He’s the only goal scorer in the league that’s not a sniper. All the others can pick a corner and hit it.

He's good at scoring the garbage goals around the crease.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

He's good at scoring the garbage goals around the crease.

So he’s overpaid by $8M then. I can do the same thing for only $1M.

 

[Fjordy]

Skinner bad at PP. His passes and decision making looked bad.

Hey idiot, Skinner scored at the PP today.

 

[OkimLom]

Under Granato, Skinner scored 5 G and 6 A in 28 games.

That works out to 15G, 18A over an 82 game season. For a 9M forward, that is pretty terrible.

I think:

- We need to put Skinner in a position to succeed
-Skinner needs to be better

Can both be true. Given the size and immovability of his contract, we need to work on both.

Seeing as this is about Skinner, I've decided to move this discussion in his thread as not to distract from any Jack discussion.

@TehDoak

Oh absolutely, just pointing out he's had bad coaching since he's signed that contract (and before that). I do think NHL level competent coaching can improve his play and attitude to be closer to the value of the contract. Using Granato in your post, as a basis for what his production was looking like, doesn't mean much to me, because I think Granato is still a bad coach, though he's better than Ralph.

When you have the opinion to spread out the talent, Skinner is not a guy you use to do that. You need Skinner to be with your best player or at least a guy capable of running his line. We might have 3 guys that could do that, Jack, Sam, and Casey. Cozen's can get there, but I don't think him and Jeff would mesh well.

He's not a guy you can count on to put on his own line and expect him to produce. You need another guy capable of carrying a line, while Jeff rides shotgun. He's a guy that takes advantages of teams focusing on other guys. It allows him to be used in a "first forward out of the zone" deployment where he can transition up the ice quickly.

I think Jeff has a bounce back year assuming they actually get some good coaching here.

 

[TehDoak]

Seeing as this is about Skinner, I've decided to move this discussion in his thread as not to distract from any Jack discussion.

@TehDoak

Oh absolutely, just pointing out he's had bad coaching since he's signed that contract (and before that). I do think NHL level competent coaching can improve his play and attitude to be closer to the value of the contract. Using Granato in your post, as a basis for what his production was looking like, doesn't mean much to me, because I think Granato is still a bad coach, though he's better than Ralph.

When you have the opinion to spread out the talent, Skinner is not a guy you use to do that. You need Skinner to be with your best player or at least a guy capable of running his line. We might have 3 guys that could do that, Jack, Sam, and Casey. Cozen's can get there, but I don't think him and Jeff would mesh well.

He's not a guy you can count on to put on his own line and expect him to produce. You need another guy capable of carrying a line, while Jeff rides shotgun. He's a guy that takes advantages of teams focusing on other guys. It allows him to be used in a "first forward out of the zone" deployment where he can transition up the ice quickly.

I think Jeff has a bounce back year assuming they actually get some good coaching here.

I mean, in his career Skinner hasn't always played with the best players when he's produced.

In his productive years, he's gotten

-High Ozone starts (typically around 60%)
-RH Center (Lindholm, Ryan, Eichel, though he had some success with Rask as well)

I'd like to get him on a sheltered offensive line with a physical RW and a RH center. Basically a line that will create some chaos in the ozone and eat up easier matchups.

 

[OkimLom]

I mean, in his career Skinner hasn't always played with the best players when he's produced.

In his productive years, he's gotten

-High Ozone starts (typically around 60%)
-RH Center (Lindholm, Ryan, Eichel, though he had some success with Rask as well)

I'd like to get him on a sheltered offensive line with a physical RW and a RH center. Basically a line that will create some chaos in the ozone and eat up easier matchups.

That's why I didn't say he needs to be with the best player, but with a guy that can handle/carry a line. I used the wrong phrasing in a way, but I still stand by the idea he needs to ride shotgun on his line. He would flourish with guys like Reinhart and Mittelstadt for example. You don't NEED him to be with Eichel to be productive, you need a system in place and deployment of Skinner that capitalizes on his strength. He shouldn't be used in a dump and chase role. His strength is transition. He's at his best when he's allowed to stretch team's structure by leaving the zone early/first. Also, allow him to be him. When he's getting under people's skin, that's when he's engaged in play.

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Obviously he is absurdly overpaid. But Skinner was getting chances and being burned by low shooting percentage in the first half of the season. Even when he isn't scoring he is a puck hound and penalty drawing machine.

Second half of the season it seemed like he stopped giving an f. It might not be, but hopefully that was only because the season was already down the tubes.

 

[2 others]

Obviously he is absurdly overpaid. But Skinner was getting chances and being burned by low shooting percentage in the first half of the season. Even when he isn't scoring he is a puck hound and penalty drawing machine.

Second half of the season it seemed like he stopped giving an f. It might not be, but hopefully that was only because the season was already down the tubes.

He would be a pain in the ass to play against in the playoffs. They just have to use him properly, pairing him with two defensively aware forwards. He can create havoc in the O-zone by hounding the Dmen. He did that very effectively in his 40goal season.

 

[TehDoak]

That's why I didn't say he needs to be with the best player, but with a guy that can handle/carry a line. I used the wrong phrasing in a way, but I still stand by the idea he needs to ride shotgun on his line. He would flourish with guys like Reinhart and Mittelstadt for example. You don't NEED him to be with Eichel to be productive, you need a system in place and deployment of Skinner that capitalizes on his strength. He shouldn't be used in a dump and chase role. His strength is transition. He's at his best when he's allowed to stretch team's structure by leaving the zone early/first. Also, allow him to be him. When he's getting under people's skin, that's when he's engaged in play.

Actually I think i disagree with this



MOST of his goals are right around the goal mouth. He's great in tight spaces in front of the net. He scores a few goals in transition/breakaways, but the vast majority are tip ins or Eichel spotting him finding a soft spot in the defense. Skinner thrives with a bit of chaos in the ozone. I think if we could pair him with a Mike Grier-esque winger and a bit of a play making center where the right wing would fire in and neutralize a d-man and let center/skinner get mismatches in front of the net, I think he'd probably at least get back to 25-30 goal pace. Which, at this point, would be found money.

 

[OkimLom]

Actually I think i disagree with this



MOST of his goals are right around the goal mouth. He's great in tight spaces in front of the net. He scores a few goals in transition/breakaways, but the vast majority are tip ins or Eichel spotting him finding a soft spot in the defense. Skinner thrives with a bit of chaos in the ozone. I think if we could pair him with a Mike Grier-esque winger and a bit of a play making center where the right wing would fire in and neutralize a d-man and let center/skinner get mismatches in front of the net, I think he'd probably at least get back to 25-30 goal pace. Which, at this point, would be found money.

I was talking more about his overall play, than just his goal scoring.

 

[TehDoak]

I was talking more about his overall play, than just his goal scoring.

At this point, I'm worrying about getting him scoring. Then maybe buy in for other parts of the game will follow. He's a bit of a shell at this point. Start by rebuilding his goal scoring confidence. It's immediate dividends for the team. Than I think you can worry about his finer points.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

All i see on here lately is how much Skinner sucks, how he is the worst contract in the NHL, etc.

I'm not going to argue that he's not overpaid - but I've still got some hope for Jeff.

He's 29 not 39 - while he scored 40 only 2 years ago.

If he's playing for the right coach, getting top line minutes - i think he can bounce back to being a useful player.

Whoever the new coach will be - one of their first priorities surely has to be figuring out how to get Skinner going again.

 

[HaNotsri]

All i see on here lately is how much Skinner sucks, how he is the worst contract in the NHL, etc.

I'm not going to argue that he's not overpaid - but I've still got some hope for Jeff.

He's 29 not 39 - while he scored 40 only 2 years ago.

If he's playing for the right coach, getting top line minutes - i think he can bounce back to being a useful player.

Whoever the new coach will be - one of their first priorities surely has to be figuring out how to get Skinner going again.

He was terrible for most of the Krueger era and didn't rebound under Granato.
We'll buy him out 2023. Even though Skinner has been an "every other year"-kind of player before he wasn't noticably slower during his down years like the last two seasons.
We conned ourselves by putting him with Eichel.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

He was terrible for most of the Krueger era and didn't rebound under Granato.
We'll buy him out 2023. Even though Skinner has been an "every other year"-kind of player before he wasn't noticably slower during his down years like the last two seasons.
We conned ourselves by putting him with Eichel.

That would give us eight years of cap hits. LOL. $1.67 million, $1.67, $4.67, $6.67, $2.67, $2.67, $2.67, $2.67. We would have to be close to cup in 2023-24 or 2024-25 to consider that.

Buyout will happen in summer of 2025 unless there is a compliance one.

(And he's not noticeably slower at all. He's a leader in league in drawn penalties. He can't score. Geoff Sanderson syndrome now in Buffalo.)