Confirmed with Link: Jeff Skinner re-signs. 8 years, $9M AAV.

[Aladyyn]

It's worth noting that Skinner still dominated xG share when playing with Ryan. Worries about sustainability are very overblown.

 

[Dingo44]

Not to re-litigate this whole thing

OK thank you.

 

[ForsbergMoDo21]

What bothers me most is we already knew his bluff to walk given how he leveraged his NTC to only go to Buff/Toronto. Toronto had no space whatsoever. He wanted to be in Buffalo. Between that and the eighth year, the Sabres had plenty of leverage and used none of it to drive down the cost. In fact they paid above market value in my opinion. As Doak said, Bot couldn’t even play one inning of hardball on this one.

Am I glad Skinners here? Yup. And I think the arguments that he will a) maintain a high level of play through the contract and b) put up higher totals than his past given the talent difference between the Sabres and the Canes of the last decade are both justified (optimistic, but not without base). But Botterill messed this one up. He chose to play hardball with Reinhart instead of Skinner. Doubly stupid given the circumstances. Hopefully it doesn’t prove too consequential in the end for a team that still desperately needs high end (expensive) offensive talent and at present doesn’t have the forward prospect pool to rely on cheap ELCs.

 

[Fezzy126]

Tulloch: The NHL's top 10 regression candidates for 2019-20

I don't understand Tulloch's statement

The other part of me looks at the fact that Skinner has consistently underperformed his expected goals throughout his career (scoring less than we would expect based on his shot locations) and then drastically outperformed them in 2018-19

Skinner's iGF/60 exceeded his ixGF/60 in 5 of his 9 seasons, and 3 of his last 4.

 

[Aladyyn]

Not to re-litigate this whole thing, but his scale of pay demands he produce at an elite level regardless of who he plays with. His career has shown us he's typically a 30 goal winger. Could he score 35 goals playing with Eichel? That is certainly possible. It's also very possible we get a Derek Ryan-eque center and the new coaching staff puts Skinner there. Maybe he plays with Marcus Johanssen and Jimmy Vesey and struggles.

The problem is, we simply can't reliably depend on him to produce at an elite level. Which is why this contract is just so damn awful.

30 goal winger with consistently elite offensive impact and penalty differential.

 

[sabremike]

Not to re-litigate this whole thing, but his scale of pay demands he produce at an elite level regardless of who he plays with. His career has shown us he's typically a 30 goal winger. Could he score 35 goals playing with Eichel? That is certainly possible. It's also very possible we get a Derek Ryan-eque center and the new coaching staff puts Skinner there. Maybe he plays with Marcus Johanssen and Jimmy Vesey and struggles.

The problem is, we simply can't reliably depend on him to produce at an elite level. Which is why this contract is just so damn awful.

I know this team has a history of doing amazingly stupid things but why in God's name would they break up Jack and Jeff? And let's just assume you are right that it takes being with Jack for him to be a 40 goal scorer. Unless you expect Jack to be run over by a speeding car tomorrow he's playing the entire contract with him so who cares? When he scores a goal with Jack is it only going to count as half a goal on the scoreboard? If he's putting up numbers he's putting up numbers.

 

[Aladyyn]

(I think Jack benefits from playing with Jeff more than the other way around)

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[KiwiGriff]

From the dollars behind the Leino, Moulson, and Okposo deals, comes the Skinner UFA contract!

It's bigger!

It's badder!

And boooooooy are we gonna hate it in 3 years!

Come one, come all, see the spectacle of the Pegula's literally lighting money on fire!

The hate came a lot quicker than 3 years.

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

(I think Jack benefits from playing with Jeff more than the other way around)

Think so?

 

[Dubi Doo]

I cant deny, I feel similar, and I know the strong majority disagree. I hope I'm wrong. I like Skinner's attitude, but he disappears for long stretches. Hopefully a better team will bring out the best in him.

Well, I wasnt a fan of this deal from day one, but even I didn't see him falling off this much. Still, Im not sure why Krueger is so hesitant to put him with Eichel. That's where he had the most success, and he brought what we're currently lacking the most- ES scoring.

Hopefully we get a new coach who can utilize Skinner better. I rarely ever questioned his work ethic, so Im not too hard on Skinner. Krueger needs to realize what Skinner is- a defensive liability who can (or once could) score a ton of goals. Put him with a line driver like Eichel who can mask his defensive flaws, and reap the rewards.

 

[HaNotsri]

Since signing the contract:
72 games
14 goals
10 assists
24 points

He's not getting younger but a new coach could probably turn him into a 20 goal scorer.

 

[Sabretooth]

Since signing the contract:
72 games
14 goals
10 assists
24 points

He's not getting younger but a new coach could probably turn him into a 20 goal scorer.

Contact being bad is self evident at this point but not sure I'd be any happier about it if it were $7M per or $6M per even if it would have seemed a bargain the day it were signed.

 

[explore]

Skinner's a buyout candidate after the end of the 2022-2023 season:

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATE	BASE SALARY REMAINING	S.BONUS REMAINING	YEARS REMAINING	BUYOUT LENGTH	AGE	BUYOUT RATIO	TOTAL COST	TOTAL SAVINGS	ANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2023	$32,000,000	$0	4	8	31	2/3	$21,333,333	$10,666,667	$2,666,667

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( BUF)
2023-24	$10,000,000	$9,000,000	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	$7,333,333	$1,666,667
2024-25	$10,000,000	$9,000,000	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	$7,333,333	$1,666,667
2025-26	$7,000,000	$9,000,000	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	$4,333,333	$4,666,667
2026-27	$5,000,000	$9,000,000	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	$2,333,333	$6,666,667
2027-28	$0	$0	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	-$2,666,667	$2,666,667
2028-29	$0	$0	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	-$2,666,667	$2,666,667
2029-30	$0	$0	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	-$2,666,667	$2,666,667
2030-31	$0	$0	$0	$2,666,667	$2,666,667	-$2,666,667	$2,666,667
TOTAL	$32,000,000	$36,000,000	$0	$21,333,333	$21,333,333	$10,666,667	$25,333,336

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

The hate came a lot quicker than 3 years.

Deservedly.

 

[5 Minute Major]

Can we lock this thread so it goes away and doesn't further depress is?

 

[Kublakhan]

I wish the Sabres could sue him for breach of contract or something..

 

[TehDoak]

Can we lock this thread so it goes away and doesn't further depress is?

I dunno I kinda like it being back.

 

[explore]

I dunno I kinda like it being back.

I mean almost all of us were like "wtf?" when we saw $9 million for 8 years, especially since it was public knowledge that he really only wanted to sign with Toronto or here and Toronto was cash-strapped. Then it became a comical headscratcher when it was revealed that the contract included a full NMC.

Jason Botterill has rightfully taken most of the blame for that signing since he was GM, but I'd really love for journalists to dig in to find out really how much the Pegula's influenced that deal, because that signing combined with the ROR trade demonstrated an exceptional lack of common sense

 

[Buffaloed]

Holy crap, he signed another 8 year deal? He's here through 2035?

 

[explore]

Holy crap, he signed another 8 year deal? He's here through 2035?

 

[HaNotsri]

Can we lock this thread so it goes away and doesn't further depress is?

Just use the ignore thread function.

 

[Uberpecker]

Holy crap, he signed another 8 year deal? He's here through 2035?

There's places you simply don't go, not even as a joke.

 

[Man of Principles]

I'm very far from understanding how the analytics works but I try to follow..but one thing I notice about Skinner is that he gets to good areas, but the shots he's been taking are weak, right into the pads, or both. I don't know if he's ever had that great of a release, but everything that comes off his stick looks like an easy save.

 

[UnleashRasmus]

It just baffles me at his usage. I understand that his defensive deficiencies are a big draw back on his game, but what the bloody hell is going on. Also, you're not going to get much out of an all offense playing him in a defensive scheme fourth line. Trying to get goal scoring out of a primary set up from a failed center in Lazar or Eakin is a bit disturbing. Our front office is showing it's head. As much as I like Kruger as a teacher, he's showing to be another fail. I mean, you look at them looking to extend Hall, when we need to create salary flexibility. This is why we're a shit show franchise. How the Pegula's are great football owners, and terrible hockey owners is so frustrating. GET OUT OF THE CLUB.