Confirmed with Link: Jeff Skinner re-signs. 8 years, $9M AAV.

[TehDoak]

So we are just going to ignore the Panarin contract?

Since 2015...
Anders Lee 24.4 GAR
Artemi Panarin 46.5 GAR
Jeff Skinner 51.7 GAR

Anders Lee is not a comparable for Skinner

Last 5 seasons:

Lee:

401 games, 142 goals, 100 Assists, 242 points

Skinner: 402 games, 147 goals, 110 Assists, 257 points

And for fun, even though he's on a entire different plane of existence than the other two:

The last 4 seasons

Panarin, 322 Games, 116 Goals, 204 Assists, 320 points (more points in 4 seasons than either had in 5....thus why he's getting paid significantly more)

Looking at the applicable comparison (Lee vs Skinner) per season the last five years

Lee: 28.4 Goals, 20 assists, 48.4 points
Skinner: 29.4 goals, 22 assist, 51.4 points

Given each teams situations are different, from a pure stats perspective, they are about as comparable as two players can be.

Sure, I'll agree to that they are different players, and Skinner might be effective a little longer into the contract, however, does that justify:

23M more over the life of the contract

AND

A full NMC vs a NTC with limitations the last two years

AND

15M in signing bonuses vs 3M in signing bonuses

The answer is. It doesn't. The Skinner deal, before he plays game 1 of his contract, is a bad, desperate deal signed by a GM desperate to keep his job.

By year 5 it'll be an anchor and we'll be unable to get rid of.

It's literally a the bobby ryan contract again. A player had a team in a bad situation and took advantage.

Except we're on the hook for 8 years vs 7 years. And a full NMC.

Bobby Ryan is 4 years into his contract and they couldn't move it if they wanted to.

I can't put into words how dumb and short sighted this contract was. Lou L understood the market and offered Lee and market rate deal, which he signed.

J-Botts let the Skinner put him in a bad spot. It would have been so easy to let Skinner go to the woo-ing period and then offer the 8th year for more money than he'd be offered anywhere.

That's all he had to do. We could have signed Skinner for 1-2M LESS a season and with LESS trade protections, giving us flexibility when it was time to get rid of this contract.

 

[BananaSquad]

People need to stop complaining, we aren’t in cap hell so who cares.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

People need to stop complaining, we aren’t in cap hell so who cares.

We will be soon. That's when it will matter but why look more than 2 meters in front of yours nose?

 

[BloFan4Life]

Lee didn't want to leave Islanders, 7 years 7 million

Duchene wanted to go to Nashville, 7 years 8 million

Skinner supposedly wanted to stay in Buffalo, 8 years 9 million

Skinner should get zero credit for "wanting" to be in Buffalo.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Last 5 seasons:

Lee:

401 games, 142 goals, 100 Assists, 242 points

Skinner: 402 games, 147 goals, 110 Assists, 257 points

And for fun, even though he's on a entire different plane of existence than the other two:

The last 4 seasons

Panarin, 322 Games, 116 Goals, 204 Assists, 320 points (more points in 4 seasons than either had in 5....thus why he's getting paid significantly more)

Looking at the applicable comparison (Lee vs Skinner) per season the last five years

Lee: 28.4 Goals, 20 assists, 48.4 points
Skinner: 29.4 goals, 22 assist, 51.4 points

Given each teams situations are different, from a pure stats perspective, they are about as comparable as two players can be.

Sure, I'll agree to that they are different players, and Skinner might be effective a little longer into the contract, however, does that justify:

23M more over the life of the contract

AND

A full NMC vs a NTC with limitations the last two years

AND

15M in signing bonuses vs 3M in signing bonuses

The answer is. It doesn't. The Skinner deal, before he plays game 1 of his contract, is a bad, desperate deal signed by a GM desperate to keep his job.

By year 5 it'll be an anchor and we'll be unable to get rid of.

It's literally a the bobby ryan contract again. A player had a team in a bad situation and took advantage.

Except we're on the hook for 8 years vs 7 years. And a full NMC.

Bobby Ryan is 4 years into his contract and they couldn't move it if they wanted to.

I can't put into words how dumb and short sighted this contract was. Lou L understood the market and offered Lee and market rate deal, which he signed.

J-Botts let the Skinner put him in a bad spot. It would have been so easy to let Skinner go to the woo-ing period and then offer the 8th year for more money than he'd be offered anywhere.

That's all he had to do. We could have signed Skinner for 1-2M LESS a season and with LESS trade protections, giving us flexibility when it was time to get rid of this contract.

Skinner is 1000x more consistent/reliable seeing as he did what he does as a rookie right out of the draft and Lee only has those 5 seasons you listed (actually it's only 3 which makes it worse, 3 seasons above 41 pts at the age of 29 lol), while being two years older...

Also, here I thought I had let everyone know that including Skinner's worst year by far (obviously due to a concussion that year) might be just a wee bit disingenuous to any argument against Skinner or comparison using points. Take out that year and do the comparison again, factoring in age and line mates.

Skinner wins every time.

Did I mention that Lee is two years older? Imagine if Skinner was signed for 9 years and had to play an entire year at 35?

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Not one single good player will sign here unless we overpay in one or more areas of the contract. That's just a fact. We're small market with a bad team.

You simply can't compare the contracts Buffalo gives out compared with most other teams.

We're a joke, and everyone knows it. Hopefully someday this isn't the case, but for now it is.

EDIT: i'm generally not a negative guy when it comes to the Bills/Sabres, but we're trapped in the 7th layer of hell here. Be real.

 

[EichHart]

Not one single good player will sign here unless we overpay in one or more areas of the contract. That's just a fact. We're small market with a bad team.

You simply can't compare the contracts Buffalo gives out compared with most other teams.

We're a joke, and everyone knows it. Hopefully someday this isn't the case, but for now it is.

EDIT: i'm generally not a negative guy when it comes to the Bills/Sabres, but we're trapped in the 7th layer of hell here. Be real.

Winning solves everything though. You become a good market by winning. You think Green Bay has problems attracting top FA in NFL? When you combine the negative mindset people have on the city of Buffalo with a 10 year playoff drought and terrible management/coaching it's extremely difficult to get anyone here aside from overpaying in term and dollars. What works in other cities just doesn't apply here.

 

[Aladyyn]

Not one single good player will sign here unless we overpay in one or more areas of the contract. That's just a fact. We're small market with a bad team.

You simply can't compare the contracts Buffalo gives out compared with most other teams.

We're a joke, and everyone knows it. Hopefully someday this isn't the case, but for now it is.

EDIT: i'm generally not a negative guy when it comes to the Bills/Sabres, but we're trapped in the 7th layer of hell here. Be real.

Which is why it's so important to find undervalued players.

 

[TehDoak]

Skinner is 1000x more consistent/reliable seeing as he did what he does as a rookie right out of the draft and Lee only has those 5 seasons you listed (actually it's only 3 which makes it worse, 3 seasons above 41 pts at the age of 29 lol), while being two years older...

Also, here I thought I had let everyone know that including Skinner's worst year by far (obviously due to a concussion that year) might be just a wee bit disingenuous to any argument against Skinner or comparison using points. Take out that year and do the comparison again, factoring in age and line mates.

Skinner wins every time.

Did I mention that Lee is two years older? Imagine if Skinner was signed for 9 years and had to play an entire year at 35?

Lee only has 5 full NHL seasons. Skinners career averages are only a bit lower than the 5 year average. Either way, it doesn't justify paying Skinner 2M more a season than Kane, Lee, or JVR, all of whom are in the same wheelhouse, stats wise.

It isn't about signing Skinner, I don't mind Skinner and appreciate his goal scoring, but I'm also honest with what he is, He's a very good, non elite goal scorer.

Not only did we overshoot the established market rate of wingers of by nearly 30%, we also gave him the 8th year, something teams to do keep the AAV low while offering more cash overall than other teams. We also handed him 15M in signing bonuses AND a full NMC throughout the life of the contract.

Basically, J-Botts was so afraid of him walking, he refused to play even an inning of hardball, basically giving him every thing he asked for. He played against himself rather than letting Skinner see what the actual market was (soft for non elite forward/goalies) and come back and get more from us via the 8th year.

Now, in the end, will an extra 2M in capspace be the difference between winning and losing? Probably not. But, it's doubtful he's an effective winger past the 4th/5th years of the contract. So, it isn't just 2M, it's 9M of potentially dead cap space over 3-4 seasons. Maybe we get a cap free buyout from the next round of the CBA, so its less of an issue, but maybe we don't. Either way, it more evidence that J-Botts is out of his league dealing with professional agents/GMs.

 

[Mit Yarrum]

Which is why it's so important to find undervalued players.

Of course I agree, but you need gamebreakers too. Not just undervalued guys.

Undervalued doesn't actually say anything about quality. I might undervalue a pile of shit, but it's still a pile of shit at the end of the day.

We need gamebreakers. Talented guys. And most of them require money or really good drafting. We seem to have the former, so go ahead and use it.

As for the latter....

 

[Aladyyn]

Man I'm sorry, if you think Skinner is in the same wheelhouse as players like Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk there's really nothing we can do here...

 

[Aladyyn]

Of course I agree, but you need gamebreakers too. Not just undervalued guys.

Undervalued doesn't actually say anything about quality. I might undervalue a pile of ****, but it's still a pile of **** at the end of the day.

We need gamebreakers. Talented guys. And most of them require money or really good drafting. We seem to have the former, so go ahead and use it.

As for the latter....

What are Eichel, Dahlin, Skinner, Reinhart? We need depth, we need quality middle 6.

You go and you give 2M a year to Brandon Pirri and let him loose in your top 9. You sign Nick Cousins for 3M a year, Tim Heed for 2.5, we have the cap space for now, these can be 1-2 year contracts that let us see if a guy can be a long-term contributor by overpaying perceived value in the short term.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Lee only has 5 full NHL seasons. Skinners career averages are only a bit lower than the 5 year average. Either way, it doesn't justify paying Skinner 2M more a season than Kane, Lee, or JVR, all of whom are in the same wheelhouse, stats wise.

It isn't about signing Skinner, I don't mind Skinner and appreciate his goal scoring, but I'm also honest with what he is, He's a very good, non elite goal scorer.

Not only did we overshoot the established market rate of wingers of by nearly 30%, we also gave him the 8th year, something teams to do keep the AAV low while offering more cash overall than other teams. We also handed him 15M in signing bonuses AND a full NMC throughout the life of the contract.

Basically, J-Botts was so afraid of him walking, he refused to play even an inning of hardball, basically giving him every thing he asked for. He played against himself rather than letting Skinner see what the actual market was (soft for non elite forward/goalies) and come back and get more from us via the 8th year.

Now, in the end, will an extra 2M in capspace be the difference between winning and losing? Probably not. But, it's doubtful he's an effective winger past the 4th/5th years of the contract. So, it isn't just 2M, it's 9M of potentially dead cap space over 3-4 seasons. Maybe we get a cap free buyout from the next round of the CBA, so its less of an issue, but maybe we don't. Either way, it more evidence that J-Botts is out of his league dealing with professional agents/GMs.

That is because you still have the same concussion year, including a 2nd one. He also didn't play with or on a team with guys like JT/Barzal outside of just last year.

Now Lee not being able to get more than 41 pts until he's 26? Now that can be used against him.

Now, in the end, will an extra 2M in capspace be the difference between winning and losing? Probably not. But, it's doubtful he's an effective winger past the 4th/5th years of the contract. So, it isn't just 2M, it's 9M of potentially dead cap space over 3-4 seasons. Maybe we get a cap free buyout from the next round of the CBA, so its less of an issue, but maybe we don't. Either way, it more evidence that J-Botts is out of his league dealing with professional agents/GMs.

Bruhhhh you admitted the slight over payment (and it isn't even 2M) wasn't going to kill us but you're stuck on the term? Not only that, but Skinner won't be effective past 31/30?

Does this mean Lee wont be good past only the 2nd/3rd year of his deal?

 

[Mit Yarrum]

What are Eichel, Dahlin, Skinner, Reinhart? We need depth, we need quality middle 6.

You go and you give 2M a year to Brandon Pirri and let him loose in your top 9. You sign Nick Cousins for 3M a year, Tim Heed for 2.5, we have the cap space for now, these can be 1-2 year contracts that let us see if a guy can be a long-term contributor by overpaying perceived value in the short term.

You'll overpay for each of those dudes too because we are Buffalo. That was my original point. And I'm fine with it BTW. This franchise will need to pay the price for garbage management all these years.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Not one single good player will sign here unless we overpay in one or more areas of the contract. That's just a fact. We're small market with a bad team.

You simply can't compare the contracts Buffalo gives out compared with most other teams.

We're a joke, and everyone knows it. Hopefully someday this isn't the case, but for now it is.

EDIT: i'm generally not a negative guy when it comes to the Bills/Sabres, but we're trapped in the 7th layer of hell here. Be real.

No need to be negative. If I could be as real as possible, our situation couldn't really be much better, and there isn't a roster i'd swap with at the moment if we had to keep them for at least 10 years.

Also don't know where the contract issue is coming from, Eichel is slightly underpaid and Skinner is slightly overpaid. Our only two serious contracts balance each other out, are both long term, and neither are at the top of the league(11+) both currently and the way things are headed.

 

[Jim Bob]

Sabres' Skinner talks chemistry with Eichel, upcoming season - Sportsnet.ca

 

[TheStorm]

Edit: nvm read the article wrong. Pls delete.

 

[DatGuy]

Man I'm sorry, if you think Skinner is in the same wheelhouse as players like Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk there's really nothing we can do here...

This is my personal opinion, skinner is heads above JVR, but if Kane cared and played as well as he is in SJS, I would rather Kane then Skinner.

 

[Jim Bob]

Team Bounce Back vs. Team Fade: Who wins a matchup of...

 

[TehDoak]

Team Bounce Back vs. Team Fade: Who wins a matchup of...

I mean, that is pretty much anytime you see a player hit a career year the year before he hits UFA.

The one advantage we have is that Skinner isn't relocating or dealing with off ice family issues due to a new city.

I wouldn't be shocked if he scored 25G and 45 points next year.

It's a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad contract.

 

[Aladyyn]

I mean, that is pretty much anytime you see a player hit a career year the year before he hits UFA.

The one advantage we have is that Skinner isn't relocating or dealing with off ice family issues due to a new city.

I wouldn't be shocked if he scored 25G and 45 points next year.

It's a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad contract.

Are we playing him with Derek Ryan?

 

[joshjull]

I mean, that is pretty much anytime you see a player hit a career year the year before he hits UFA.

The one advantage we have is that Skinner isn't relocating or dealing with off ice family issues due to a new city.

I wouldn't be shocked if he scored 25G and 45 points next year.

It's a baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad contract.

Its amazing how hard some of you work to ignore Jack’s impact on Skinner (and vice versa).

A legit take questioning Skinner’s deal would be framed as how much of last season was due to being a contract year and how much was due to playing with Jack. By cutting Jack out of the discussion your either being dismissive of his obvious impact on Skinner or are being disingenuous in your argument.

Its easier to imagine Jack helping Skinner produce near the upper end of his career goal production (35+ goals) than it is to imagine Skinner only scoring 25 goals with him.

 

[Jim Bob]

Tulloch: The NHL's top 10 regression candidates for 2019-20

Honourable Mentions

Jeff Skinner, LW, Buffalo Sabres: Part of me wonders if Jack Eichel can inflate his linemates’ production the same way we’ve seen players like Malkin and Tavares do it. The other part of me looks at the fact that Skinner has consistently underperformed his expected goals throughout his career (scoring less than we would expect based on his shot locations) and then drastically outperformed them in 2018-19. The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, but it’s a safe bet that he doesn’t approach 40 again next season.

 

[sufferer]

Skinner should have no issues hitting 30+ goals for the majority of his contract length unless he's obviously befallen by injuries. He's an elite goal scorer and will be on the ice consistently with at least one of Eichel, Reinhart or Dahlin.

 

[TehDoak]

Are we playing him with Derek Ryan?

Its amazing how hard some of you work to ignore Jack’s impact on Skinner (and vice versa).

A legit take questioning Skinner’s deal would be framed as how much of last season was due to being a contract year and how much was due to playing with Jack. By cutting Jack out of the discussion your either being dismissive of his obvious impact on Skinner or are being disingenuous in your argument.

Its easier to imagine Jack helping Skinner produce near the upper end of his career goal production (35+ goals) than it is to imagine Skinner only scoring 25 goals with him.

Not to re-litigate this whole thing, but his scale of pay demands he produce at an elite level regardless of who he plays with. His career has shown us he's typically a 30 goal winger. Could he score 35 goals playing with Eichel? That is certainly possible. It's also very possible we get a Derek Ryan-eque center and the new coaching staff puts Skinner there. Maybe he plays with Marcus Johanssen and Jimmy Vesey and struggles.

The problem is, we simply can't reliably depend on him to produce at an elite level. Which is why this contract is just so damn awful.