Confirmed with Link: Jeff Skinner re-signs. 8 years, $9M AAV.

[HaNotsri]

1. Pegula buys KHL team
2. Mutual termination with Skinner
3. Skinner signs one year deal with the KHL team to compensate, terminates the deal in preseason but receives full payout.

 

[Ygo]

We don't have much to go on except +/-, especially since creating "small elements of danger" is not a statistical category yet. +/- at least shows that he is on the ice many more for goals against than goals for. In other words, he's a loser. -119 is A LOT more goals to be on against than for, particularly since he's been known as a goal scorer. Notice when Carolina got to be a good team, they jettisoned Skinner. Why? Because he didn't hold up his end. Apparently he doesn't know how to play d and pairing him with Cozens, who's as sound as it gets for a 20 year old, doesn't cut it. You shouldn't be pressuring a 20 year old to hoist Skinner up by his own bootstraps...

But, Skinner is not the problem this year (he is only -1). Maybe he should be playing with Eichel (-8) and Reinhart (-11) to hoist them up. Just admit it, you cannot measure a players effectiveness with +/- (at least not entirely, as you are trying to do). The guys who play the most often bare the weight of +/- pending how well the team does.

How about this from Joe DiBiase Skinner's ranks on the Sabres this year...
Drawn penalties - 1st
Takeaways - 1st
Rebounds created - 1st
Blocked shots - 3rd amongst forwards

Bottom line, anyone can cherry pick a metric to suit a narrative. Is Skinner the problem with this team, this year... heck no! Is he overpaid, heck ya!

 

[Jim Bob]

But, Skinner is not the problem this year (he is only -1). Maybe he should be playing with Eichel (-8) and Reinhart (-11) to hoist them up. Just admit it, you cannot measure a players effectiveness with +/- (at least not entirely, as you are trying to do). The guys who play the most often bare the weight of +/- pending how well the team does.

How about this from Joe DiBiase Skinner's ranks on the Sabres this year...
Drawn penalties - 1st
Takeaways - 1st
Rebounds created - 1st
Blocked shots - 3rd amongst forwards

Bottom line, anyone can cherry pick a metric to suit a narrative. Is Skinner the problem with this team, this year... heck no! Is he overpaid, heck ya!

Skinner's +/- is helped by playing with two defensive minded line mates.

 

[TehDoak]

The expected Buffalo podcast came to a pretty simple conclusion:

Kruger, plainly and simply, doesn't like Jeff Skinner. His usage doesn't reflect his underlying numbers impact. Now, I don't think that 100% accounts for his lack of production, especially last year Jeff had a case of "retirement contract", however, this year the effort appears to be better.

 

[DJN21]

I'd give Skinner the C on his chest before Eichel this year. Skinner is clearly at least trying....

 

[Ygo]

Skinner's +/- is helped by playing with two defensive minded line mates.

Who are also heavy minus players in their careers (Sheahan -50 and Lazar -21). Let's not pretend that is why Skinner is not sinking (he is not sinking at all in fact, he just is not a 9M/yr player). Last year was definitely a down year as his impact (referenced below) was neutral. His most common line mates were MoJo, Sheary, Sobotka, Lazar and eRod (still lead the team in 5v5 Goals/60). He has barely played on the PP last year and this year, and so goal totals get deflated, but, he remains a solid 5v5 player.

This team cannot score 5v5, that is the problem. When it is the whole team, that is luck, system or both. At 5v5 amongst forwards...

Lazar 4 - leading the team
Reider 3
Staal 2
Reinhart 2
Cozens 1
Eichel 1

6 forwards amongst 13 who have played have a 5v5 goal. And, Olofsson, Hall and Eakin all have many more minutes played at 5v5 amongst those with zero goals (and Okposo and Tage average more minutes per game). I think the team might be better if Skinner played more, not less.

 

[Fezzy126]

Joe D is on a Skinner crusade as of late, Preach buddy.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart
Hall-Staal-Cozens

This one isn't rocket science, Ralph.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart
Hall-Staal-Cozens

This one isn't rocket science, Ralph.

It’s rocket appliances though

 

[Rastin]

I don't understand why Skinner got benched. I haven't doubted his effort at all this year.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't understand why Skinner got benched. I haven't doubted his effort at all this year.

Time to start up some crazy rumors that Skinner kicked Ralph's dog or something...

 

[Jim Bob]

Who are also heavy minus players in their careers (Sheahan -50 and Lazar -21). Let's not pretend that is why Skinner is not sinking (he is not sinking at all in fact, he just is not a 9M/yr player). Last year was definitely a down year as his impact (referenced below) was neutral. His most common line mates were MoJo, Sheary, Sobotka, Lazar and eRod (still lead the team in 5v5 Goals/60). He has barely played on the PP last year and this year, and so goal totals get deflated, but, he remains a solid 5v5 player.

This team cannot score 5v5, that is the problem. When it is the whole team, that is luck, system or both. At 5v5 amongst forwards...

Lazar 4 - leading the team
Reider 3
Staal 2
Reinhart 2
Cozens 1
Eichel 1

6 forwards amongst 13 who have played have a 5v5 goal. And, Olofsson, Hall and Eakin all have many more minutes played at 5v5 amongst those with zero goals (and Okposo and Tage average more minutes per game). I think the team might be better if Skinner played more, not less.

The $9M question with Skinner is what do you do with a player that is creating chances and not cashing in on them at all?

Last season he tied his career low Shooting%. So far this season he hasn't potted even one cheap one.

Who knows what is going on behind the scenes with Ralph and Skinner. But at some point, you have to say that creating chances and not finishing isn't good enough.

I have no issue with putting Skinner back with Eichel and Reinhart. But, I don't know if that would be a cure all.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

We’ll likely never know why he’s sitting Skinner but the coach makes this decision knowing his job is on the line, so I doubt it’s just that he dislikes Skinner. That’s a dumb conclusion that you only come to when you’re overly focused on analytics that use different data than the team does internally.

 

[Ygo]

We’ll likely never know why he’s sitting Skinner but the coach makes this decision knowing his job is on the line, so I doubt it’s just that he dislikes Skinner. That’s a dumb conclusion that you only come to when you’re overly focused on analytics that use different data than the team does internally.

Conspiracy theory time... Leadership does not like that $9M price tag (rightfully so) and is trying to get him to waive that NMC. He goes to Seattle (with some kind of asset) and scores 30+ for a couple of seasons and everyone is happy.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Conspiracy theory time... Leadership does not like that $9M price tag (rightfully so) and is trying to get him to waive that NMC. He goes to Seattle (with some kind of asset) and scores 30+ for a couple of seasons and everyone is happy.

My brain went there too, but that’s such a toxic way to get something like that done, I have a hard time convincing myself that’s what they’re doing.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Conspiracy theory time... Leadership does not like that $9M price tag (rightfully so) and is trying to get him to waive that NMC. He goes to Seattle (with some kind of asset) and scores 30+ for a couple of seasons and everyone is happy.

The problem with trading him is the cap hit, clearly. We will need a three-way trade to clear him out -- some middle team take $1 to $1.5 M cap for six years — and Sabres eating $3 M themselves. You have to ask yourself whether it is worth it. The middle team will want a decent player or an A- prospect to take major hit even with just a cap hit of $4.5M, he's down to negative value. Still.

I say you've got to try and get him going somehow, some way.

This all presupposes Skinner is happy to make $9 M no matter what to be close to home in Toronot and refuses to waive NMC. And that might be true.

This isn't some prison movie where he can bullied by other inmates.

 

[joshjull]

The $9M question with Skinner is what do you do with a player that is creating chances and not cashing in on them at all?

Last season he tied his career low Shooting%. So far this season he hasn't potted even one cheap one.

Who knows what is going on behind the scenes with Ralph and Skinner. But at some point, you have to say that creating chances and not finishing isn't good enough.

I have no issue with putting Skinner back with Eichel and Reinhart. But, I don't know if that would be a cure all.

I get what you’re saying with the bolded but why is Skinner the only one held to that standard 5v5? Hall and Olofsson certainly aren’t held to that standard and they have far more advantageous deployments.

Krueger won’t let Skinner; play on PP1, play with Jack, get offensively skewed OZ deployments, go out with goalie pulled and won’t play him in OT. The only one of those decisions that makes sense is PP1 because of how good they’ve been. But Krueger wouldn’t play him there last year either when they weren’t good.

All of the above are ways a coach can help a player struggling to score gain some confidence they can hopefully carrying forward. If there was a way to design a forward deployment to suck the confidence out of a goal scorer I think Krueger found it.

 

[Archie Lee]

Conspiracy theory time... Leadership does not like that $9M price tag (rightfully so) and is trying to get him to waive that NMC. He goes to Seattle (with some kind of asset) and scores 30+ for a couple of seasons and everyone is happy.

I've thought about this, but in the end it doesn't add up. The worse Skinner produces, the lower his value and the bigger the add needs to be to get another team to take him.

The Sabres need to accept that Skinner is grossly overpaid at $9 million (and was going to be from the moment the contract was signed) and find a way to get him to play like the $6 - $6.5 million player he was before the big contract. Skinner scoring 25 a year is terribly overpaid, but not a disaster.

 

[Royisgone]

I get what you’re saying with the bolded but why is Skinner the only one held to that standard 5v5? Hall and Olofsson certainly aren’t held to that standard and they have far more advantageous deployments.

Krueger won’t let Skinner; play on PP1, get offensively skewed OZ deployments, go out with goalie pulled and won’t play him in OT. The only one of those decisions that makes sense is PP1 because of how good they’ve been. But Krueger wouldn’t play him there last year either when they weren’t good.

All of the above are ways a coach can help a player struggling to score gain some confidence they can hopefully carrying forward. If there was a way to design a forward deployment to suck the confidence out of a goal scorer I think Krueger found it.

And yet Ralph can't help but continue on with his positivity talk.

It's all a good reminder to ignore what people say, and instead watch what they do.

 

[OkimLom]

The $9M question with Skinner is what do you do with a player that is creating chances and not cashing in on them at all?

Last season he tied his career low Shooting%. So far this season he hasn't potted even one cheap one.

Who knows what is going on behind the scenes with Ralph and Skinner. But at some point, you have to say that creating chances and not finishing isn't good enough.

I have no issue with putting Skinner back with Eichel and Reinhart. But, I don't know if that would be a cure all.

I think a large part is that Skinner's game just doesn't mix well with Ralph and the coaching staff's game planning.

If this was an issue of JUST Skinner, then I would say just keep trying combinations, or put him in situations to utilize his strengths. But I feel it's just the result of our team's offensive plan whether that's Ralph or Granato doing doesn't matter to me. Skinner is a guy who is at his best when he's crashing the net and able to "pick up the garbage". Skinner is just not a good fit under Krueger's system because the time it takes the puck to go from low to high, to a defenseman to control the puck, and then find the right angle to get a shot through (if they did), the other team has already marked Skinner and the other forwards, and makes it easy to move them out of the play.

Skinner, IMO, would feel more at home, with guys throwing pucks on net quickly from the faceoff dots, and corners and cashing on the rebounds with the strength of his skating edge work and pest-like game, another element missing this year. But even with this team, I would question how effective this team would be at doing that. They have a terrible time at playing the puck off the goaltender's pads to create rebounds. Too many shots are at knee high height. When the goalie goes down, it's hitting the logo or stomach.

I'll just say that I'm not a firm believer that coaches that can't adapt to his players on his roster will ever be good coaches.

 

[Buffaloed]

Observations: Sabres refuse to take excuses in solid win over Devils
Krueger said he understands the fan and media chatter around Skinner, who has no goals and one point this season, while making $9 million.
"We are aware of that. It is a noise that's deserved for the entire situation," Krueger said. "We are working in a constructive way here hoping that watching a couple of games will free him and allow him to bring his tools and his assets into our game. We need his game. We need his 5-on-5 scoring. We need his threat."

Anyone want to translate this?

 

[Daz28]

Observations: Sabres refuse to take excuses in solid win over Devils
Krueger said he understands the fan and media chatter around Skinner, who has no goals and one point this season, while making $9 million.
"We are aware of that. It is a noise that's deserved for the entire situation," Krueger said. "We are working in a constructive way here hoping that watching a couple of games will free him and allow him to bring his tools and his assets into our game. We need his game. We need his 5-on-5 scoring. We need his threat."

Anyone want to translate this?

It's pretty much the opposite of what Skinner said, and I agree with Skinner. Watching a couple games isn't gonna do squat. Sure, maybe he does come back playing well, but it isn't because he needed to watch games live as opposed to on film. Ralph sure does have a way with spinning things: Anyone: "So Ralph, how about that rain we got last night"; RK: "Well, rain is good for the trees and plants. They make oxygen, which is good for us, too"; Anyone: ????????

 

[slip]

Observations: Sabres refuse to take excuses in solid win over Devils
Krueger said he understands the fan and media chatter around Skinner, who has no goals and one point this season, while making $9 million.
"We are aware of that. It is a noise that's deserved for the entire situation," Krueger said. "We are working in a constructive way here hoping that watching a couple of games will free him and allow him to bring his tools and his assets into our game. We need his game. We need his 5-on-5 scoring. We need his threat."

Anyone want to translate this?

I think Krueger's point is Jeff Skinner has all the necessary tools to score at even strength, but is being held back by his reluctance to embrace a system that has produced the fewest even strength goals in the NHL by a country mile.

 

[brian_griffin]

Observations: Sabres refuse to take excuses in solid win over Devils
Krueger said he understands the fan and media chatter around Skinner, who has no goals and one point this season, while making $9 million.
"We are aware of that. It is a noise that's deserved for the entire situation," Krueger said. "We are working in a constructive way here hoping that watching a couple of games will free him and allow him to bring his tools and his assets into our game. We need his game. We need his 5-on-5 scoring. We need his threat."

Anyone want to translate this?

Taylor Hall is hockey's equivalent of the Manchurian candidate, Raymond Shaw. Krueger is Angela Lansbury/Shaw's mother. Skinner is Sinatra/Ben Marco, who sees through the attempted programming, and has recurring repressed nightmares of scoring goals.

 

[Buffaloed]

Taylor Hall is hockey's equivalent of the Manchurian candidate, Raymond Shaw. Krueger is Angela Lansbury/Shaw's mother. Skinner is Sinatra/Ben Marco, who sees through the attempted programming, and has recurring repressed nightmares of scoring goals.