"Great shape" is an overstatement. A lot of unknowns, but the premise doesn't look good to me.
I'd argue we're already seeing the results of a cap crunch. There was literally not enough money last September under the cap to extend Reinhart to a reasonable deal. Hence dealing from weakness. We might have saved a couple million there if we believe the rumored asking prices vs what I think he'll get next deal.
For my part, this is how I mentally model the future. If we resign our (developed) core to what they should be able to demand, two years from now we have:
Skinner 9 Eichel 10 Reinhart 7.5
x - x - x
x - x - x
x - x - Okposo 6
x, x
Dahlin 10 - Ristolainen 5.4
x - Montour 5.5
x - x
x
x
x
88M cap
53.4M spoken for by seven contracts.
34.5M for sixteen contracts -- 10 forwards, 4 defense, 2 goalies
Let's build it out.
Step One: First, let's do the easy stuff -- $1M apiece for all backups/extra skaters -- 1D, 2Fs, 1G. Now you have 30.5M for 8F, 3D, and a starting G.
Step Two: Then make sure not to skimp on the most important position. Let's say your starting G costs at least $5.5M. There's 15 goalies making $4.9 or more now. So we scale up mildly for inflation.
Step Three: Let's be reasonably optimistic and assume that 2 ELCs make the roster, without any bonuses, in addition to your $1M backups. Say 1F, 1D. Now you have 6 players total making a bare million. Maybe this includes 7OA this year.
Now you have $23M to fill out the middle 7 forwards, 2D. That's $2.55 per. This includes Mittelstadt, Nylander, Thompson, Asplund, Oloffsson, Pilut, Borgen, if you're counting on any of them.
Now there's a ton of spots left and a ton of cap to imagine different scenarios. But globally, you do see the parameters of the pressure the GM is going to be under. This is going to be the kind of team where the middle of the lineup -- the whole second and third lines and #4-5 D, basically -- is going to have to come in at less than $3M a pop. That's not a premise from which you can build great depth.
Or else the goaltending will have to be really cheap. Or else somebody will have to move, like maybe Reinhart. Or else Dahlin doesn't develop like we hope. None of these are good options.
***
Another way to think of it is this: how many teams have their top 5 contracts eating up >48% of cap? In my model, that would be Reinhart, Okposo, Skinner, Dahlin, Eichel -- 42.5M of an 88M cap.
To compare against last year's $80M cap, the question would be based on who has 5 deals accounting for $38.5M. The answer is three: Chicago ($39.8), Edmonton ($38.5), Pittsburgh ($38.9). The theme there is nobody won a playoff round, and Pittsburgh and Chicago are only on the list because they each won a bunch of cups and they're paying for it now.
For ****s and giggles, the Bruins top 5 deals came in at 34.5% of cap. The Blues top 5 deals will come in at 40% of the cap. Those are teams that can afford to be deep.
So yeah, if they retain this core, they will have to be among the most top-heavy teams salary-wise in the league. And that doesn't add anyone to last year's ****show -- it just basically counts on Dahlin and Krueger to be the difference.
If your premise is this core just needs a bunch of quality depth behind them to flourish, they won't get it without a lot of bargain deals elsewhere.
My guess is they're aware of this, and the plan is to really squeeze Reinhart and Dahlin when they come up. I don't know how likely that is to work.
