Rumor: Jakob Chychrun wants to be traded to a playoff team

[Pinto Bean]

Jakob has a proven track-record that have both positive and negative notes and both need to be taken into account when making a trade for him. The positives are that he's proven in past years to be a legit top-4 guy who can eat minutes and produce offensively. He also has a 3 year contract at a great cap hit.

The negatives are that he is always injured and he's coming off a poor year (according to Yotes fans) but so did the team as a whole.

Looking more specifically into this track-record. Jakob has been pretty consistently injured for 7+ years now. So sure, his contract does say 3 years but realistically, given his extensive history, he'll likely give you about 2 years worth of games. This needs to be taken into account.

So with the expectation that he'll likely give you about 2 years worth of games of probably top-4 play at a good cap hit, I'd like to think a 2023 unprotected 1st from a Sens team that hasn't finished bottom 10 in ages and is in a strong division + a prospect not named Sanderson/Pinto/Greig + whatever other secondary piece in a reasonable basis for a trade.

 

[hbk]

Jakob has a proven track-record that have both positive and negative notes and both need to be taken into account when making a trade for him. The positives are that he's proven in past years to be a legit top-4 guy who can eat minutes and produce offensively. He also has a 3 year contract at a great cap hit.

The negatives are that he is always injured and he's coming off a poor year (according to Yotes fans) but so did the team as a whole.

Looking more specifically into this track-record. Jakob has been pretty consistently injured for 7+ years now. So sure, his contract does say 3 years but realistically, given his extensive history, he'll likely give you about 2 years worth of games. This needs to be taken into account.

So with the expectation that he'll likely give you about 2 years worth of games of probably top-4 play at a good cap hit, I'd like to think a 2023 unprotected 1st from a Sens team that hasn't finished bottom 10 in ages and is in a strong division + a prospect not named Sanderson/Pinto/Greig + whatever other secondary piece in a reasonable basis for a trade.

How much to take Zaitsev? 2x2nds?

 

[FiveHoleo]

So that's why he didn't end up in Ottawa. Makes sense.

 

[Golden_Jet]

How much to take Zaitsev? 2x2nds?

One second, he’s owed 6.5 over next 2 years, and stayed and trained in Ottawa this summer.

 

[Salva Mea]

there is no chance sens will trade pinto or greig,

 

[rt]

No you’re just delusional. Chychrun would’ve been gone if teams valued him as you do.

I understand that you’re bewildered. It must be your usual state given your limitations. But you’re facing it bravely and I’m proud of you for trying. It can’t be easy.

How much to take Zaitsev? 2x2nds?

Yes. That’s exactly the price and there is loads of precedent to support that. Comps galore.

 

[hbk]

One second, he’s owed 6.5 over next 2 years, and stayed and trained in Ottawa this summer.

That’s the going rate to take a 4.5AAV w 2 years on it. A 2nd rounder per year.

I’m not sure what the staying in Ottawa has to do with the market value to take a cap dump.

 

[xVolchenkov]

I agree that if Ottawa was looking to unload Zaitsev by himself, x2 2nd round picks would probably be fair.

If Zaitsev is who Ottawa was looking to include as a salary back in a deal for Chychrun, it would still come at a cost but less so IMO. Any team who is trading for JC is going to be sending money back in return, no matter how good of a contract he’s on.

 

[mouser]

That’s the going rate to take a 4.5AAV w 2 years on it. A 2nd rounder per year.

I’m not sure what the staying in Ottawa has to do with the market value to take a cap dump.

Agreed, though I usually focus a little more on the actual cash when a bottom team takes on a cap dump. Zaitsev has $7m in cash remaining. His value to AZ is a replacement level Dman at $1.25m to $1.5m/year. That makes Zaitsev overpaid by $4-$4.5m in cash.

The market rate for a 2nd round pick has been ~$2m in cash dump. Recent examples being Ladd, Kassian and Nemeth. So yeah, around two 2nds worth of value should be the price for Zaitsev.

 

[Former Referee 68]

Leafs are out i see

 

[UglyPuckling]

I think we're talking about two different things honestly. Seems like you're talking about next year's Sens cap situation, I'm specifically discussing how a Chychrun trade would affect that. Which you mentioned, but again I'm not sure you're considering this correctly.

Here's what I mean. Next year as is, the Sens will have to give Stutzle a big raise and would like to hold onto Debrincat, he'll need a raise too. Let's say the Cat gets 8.5 million (that'd be $2m more), then the Sens would be spending around 10m more than they currently are -- they currently have around ~5.5m in cap space with only Formenton still to sign. I don't pretend to know what his value would be, if you add that to Stutzle / Debrincat and subtract their available cap space, that's gets you to around 4 or 5 million more, which when considering replaceable soon-to-be UFAs I'm guessing is where you got your $85m required cap number. Number seems reasonable especially since this your team and you know your roster best.

BUT, that's what they have to do without trading Chychrun. A Chychrun trade wouldn't trigger anything, they have to make those moves regardless.

If they do trade Chych, if anything it would make the cap dancing easier -- Zaitsev and Chych's cap hit is basically the same -- 4.5 to 4.6m assuming no retention maybe there might be some (which would make the dancing even easier). Main point tho is if you include some roster players in the deal you can take some cap pressure off that way. Of course, if you were assuming that dumping Zaitsev would otherwise be how OTT would clear that cap space, I would argue hard that dumping him may be difficult -- if you look at it, really the only teams that are intentionally bad and might have space are Zona, Chi, BUF (arguably ANA but I would disagree with that), well over half NHL teams have a Zaitsev-type contract they'd like to get rid of (Hornqvist, Nyqvist, OEL etc). Cap space / contract value is still extremely important otherwise Patches / MAF / Bjorkstrand etc wouldn't have basically been given away, they are all good players.

Long way of saying if you don't trade for Chych you're going to have to pay a ton to get rid of Zaitsev (if you even will be able to), one could easily argue it'd make more sense to pay more to also get Chychrun which would significantly help your team. And as said above, to me the cap considerations are secondary but if anything a trade might help because in any deal you'll be able to include roster players as necessary in order to make the math work

We are both talking about how adding Chychrun could effect the cap situation. I've been through these cap calculations scores of times for 2023-24. I created a spreadsheet that I use to do "what if" scenarios and they can be done quickly. I have a few different spreadsheets where I modeled acquiring Chychrun and then made other roster adjustments.

If we resign Debrincat at $8.5 m, and Zub at $4.5 m, plus give Pinto a new contract, we are likely going to have a cap around $81 million conservatively. Zaitsev is already traded and his salary is subtracted in this model. This model also includes replacing vet defenders like Hamonic & Holden with ELCs (Thomson & JBD), not resigning Talbot and replacing him with Sogaard (another ELC), and going with a 4th line composed of all ELCs/league minimums (except Motte). Naturally Stutzle's $8.35 m is included as well as the core players (Chabot, Tkakchuk, Batherson, Norris, etc.).

So, we would end up with $85 - $86 m cap if we add Chychrun's $4.6 m. So, unless the cap goes up to $85 m in 2023-24 or more, we are going need to do some more major roster surgery to acquire Chychrun even with moving Zaitsev (& his salary) factored already in to this process, or alternatively, forgo doing the trade. Plus, we don't know if the owners intend to spend to cap either.

I'm guessing they are trying to figure out how to move Zaitsev at a lower cost and so far they are loathe to trade away pieces like Pinto, Grieg and Sanderson. I guess the thinking is they will move Zaitsev later, either at the TDL or next summer during the off season (possibly/likely after the signing bonus has been paid). They'll run with some ELCs to fill some slots on defense next year and give them some ice time this year to help with transition.

 

[rt]

That’s the going rate to take a 4.5AAV w 2 years on it. A 2nd rounder per year.

I’m not sure what the staying in Ottawa has to do with the market value to take a cap dump.

Nemeth just cost the rangers two 2nd like a month ago. Most obvious comp.

A year ago Stralman (who’s clearly better and has only one year left) returned Kolyachonok and a 2nd.

Gostisbehere (who’s much, much, much better) returned just a single 2nd last summer but he’s twice the player.

That’s three clear comps just looking at one year and one team.

there is no chance sens will trade pinto or greig,

Chychrun for Muzzin, Knies and a 1st.

 

[rt]

I agree that if Ottawa was looking to unload Zaitsev by himself, x2 2nd round picks would probably be fair.

If Zaitsev is who Ottawa was looking to include as a salary back in a deal for Chychrun, it would still come at a cost but less so IMO. Any team who is trading for JC is going to be sending money back in return, no matter how good of a contract he’s on.

Because I like you, I’ll give you a discount. Your ‘23 1st and your choice of Pinto or Greig for Chcyhrun and then I’ll let you dump Zaitsev for only a single 2nd.

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues should be interested.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Nemeth just cost the rangers two 2nd like a month ago. Most obvious comp.

A year ago Stralman (who’s clearly better and has only one year left) returned Kolyachonok and a 2nd.

Gostisbehere (who’s much, much, much better) returned just a single 2nd last summer but he’s twice the player.

That’s three clear comps just looking at one year and one team.


Chychrun for Muzzin, Knies and a 1st.

So ghostibiere cost one second with 2 seasons left on deal, there you go.

Because I like you, I’ll give you a discount. Your ‘23 1st and your choice of Pinto or Greig for Chcyhrun and then I’ll let you dump Zaitsev for only a single 2nd.

Because Sens fans like you, they politely tell you to jump in the lake.

 

[Mosby]

Except Gostisbehere isn’t dog shit. The flyers threw in a seventh rounder as well.

 

[hamzarocks]

Nemeth just cost the rangers two 2nd like a month ago. Most obvious comp.

A year ago Stralman (who’s clearly better and has only one year left) returned Kolyachonok and a 2nd.

Gostisbehere (who’s much, much, much better) returned just a single 2nd last summer but he’s twice the player.

That’s three clear comps just looking at one year and one team.


Chychrun for Muzzin, Knies and a 1st.

If I was the leafs GM the offer you proposed is the exact offer I'd offer for Chychuran

He'll I wanted to post that deal on the leafs board but didn't thinking I'll get flamed

Knies is great but chychuran is 3 years of similar to 2019-2021 value muzzin (a quality 2/3D) and he's still young as he'll so chance he can grow and get to Rielly level and be a top 15ishD.

That's a no Brainerd deal to take for the leafs from my POV.

Leafs LW depth is likely to produce at least 1 40-50 pt winger at least b/w Robertson/Amirov/Hirvonen etc.

Knies can be used to add a core level piece as he won't be a core level contributer for another 2 or 3 years for the leafs which makes him an expandable piece

The leafs 1st will be in the 20s most likely so no interest in keeping it either. Muzzin has actual solid value at this point but he's a injury concern and up there in age. If he bounces back and stays healthy the Yotes get a top4D and vet, if not they can afford to have him on IR/LTIR if it goes that route

Dubas won't ever deal Muzzin andikely not knies either but I wish we went in on that deal, and honestly wish we'd have done it at the draft this year

Extra 1M capspace could have helped us in free agency

So ghostibiere cost one second with 2 seasons left on deal, there you go.


Because Sens fans like you, they politely tell you to jump in the lake.

Extreme overrating of talent by sens fans

Greig is similar to Knies as a prospect.

You don't balk at trading a quality A- prospect when a 24 year old top 4D with goal scoring and room to become a 1D is on the table

Pinto maybe he's a bit closer to the NHL so it's tougher

Greig + 1st + Zaitsev + 2nd for Chychuran is such a clear quality trade for the sens that refusing it is just absurd

 

[hbk]

Except Gostisbehere isn’t dog shit. The flyers threw in a seventh rounder as well.

Gostibehere likely goes for a 2nd+ at the deadline as well. He was excellent last season.

 

[hbk]

AZ also has 18 picks (actually 19 as we are getting that extra 3rd from the Isles for Ladd) in rounds 1-3 of the next 3 drafts (i think they already have a 2nd 2026 2nd rounder now as well) so the year of the 2nd pick that AZ is asking for could be in a year 3-5 years out. The only pick they will be adamant on is the 2023 1st which they will have to give some lottery protection towards. Maybe even top 10.

 

[FSL KINGS]

Seems like a trade at the deadline would be more likely than now. The pick has a better chance of missing the playoffs & being better if the trade is done before the season. Wonder when it goes down.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Seems like a trade at the deadline would be more likely than now. The pick has a better chance of missing the playoffs & being better if the trade is done before the season. Wonder when it goes down.

Ya I tend to agree with the TDL, cost comes down, can see if fully recovered from injuries.

 

[Coyotes19c]

So ghostibiere cost one second with 2 seasons left on deal, there you go.


Because Sens fans like you, they politely tell you to jump in the lake.

Imagine actually thinking Zaitsev and ghost are the same.

 

[Heldig]

Ya I tend to agree with the TDL, cost comes down, can see if fully recovered from injuries.

Doubtful / hopeful it does not drag that long.

If not Ottawa then some team will cough up a 1st and a top prospect before Christmas.

 

[Schemp]

Wonder when it goes down.

When Chychrun starts screwing up the tank like last season when the Coyotes won 8 out of 12 games before the deadline before injuries set them back.

 

[xVolchenkov]

Because I like you, I’ll give you a discount. Your ‘23 1st and your choice of Pinto or Greig for Chcyhrun and then I’ll let you dump Zaitsev for only a single 2nd.

I would do Greig, OTT '23 1st (top 3 protected), WSH '23 2nd and Zaitsev for Chychrun tbh.