In the NHL Kesler point totals
28 games 2 goals 3 assists
82 games 10 goals 13 assists
48 games 6g 10 a
80 games 21g 16 A
Kesler was drafted and seen to be a high quality third line checking center, with little offensive game. I remember watching him as a rookie and beyond, and his hands early were stone. 30 goals in the A means little - Gaunce was on pace for similar in his last AHL season.
In fact, it wasn't until 2008/9 when most thought maybe Kelser has more in him offensively when he got 26 goals. I believe from my Eye test, and seeing both play at the beginning of their careers, Jake has a great deal more offensive upside than Kesler by far at this stage of their careers. Kesler was a selke winner so he is by far better defensively.
My point was simple, if Kesler can manage to find 40 goals in the league with less natural offensive talent / developed it, there is no reason Jake should be seen as a busts given his trajectory, and in my view much more offensive talent naturally (his goals are goal scorers goals friend, they aren't junk). Kesler never had the ability to really "snipe", other than his one timer on the PP with the twins on the off wing.
I would agree to disagree with you here in terms of offensive upside at the same ages.
Some interesting historical posts here to back up my views
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ryan-kesler-potential.114202/