Player Discussion Jake Virtanen Part 2

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Last Thread: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/jake-virtanen.2507213/

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[ChilliBilly]

Fan said - At this point in the 2018-2019 season, Virtanen has more goals and points than Ehlers and Nylander. Let's savour this moment.

That would be more impressive if Nylander was actually playing.

 

[F A N]

Virtanen seems quicker on his release this season and he's hitting top shelf corner.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Canucks1096 said -

We are wrong on what? So 5 goals in 14 games proves that Virtanen is the perfect 2nd/3rd line winger.

Kassian 5 goals in his first 7 games in 2013

Macann 5 goals in first 9 games in 2016.

So did you think Kassian and Macann would be 1st line players back then?


​

What? You realize you are quoting someone who specifically said "never going to be a 1st line player, but ..."

Seriously, what is the point of a post like this other than to be a Debbie Downer?

for that matter, what happened to all the jerks who were yelling for the last 2 - 3 years that we should see if we can get a 4th rounder for him. He's never going to be Nylander or Ehlers but he's a totally different skill set, and is valuable. Way to early to see if he can translate this decent start to full season, but its very good news.

And it sure looks like we have our # 1 center as well.​

 

[F A N]

Fan said - At this point in the 2018-2019 season, Virtanen has more goals and points than Ehlers and Nylander. Let's savour this moment.

That would be more impressive if Nylander was actually playing.

Don't ruin the moment.

 

[lawrence]

 

[Rowlet]

Who would have guessed that 3 out of the top 5 would bust in that draft class and that Draisaitl was the one who didn't

 

[DL44]

Who would have guessed that 3 out of the top 5 would bust in that draft class and that Draisaitl was the one who didn't

I dont think you can call Reinhart a bust... he is a 50pt player after all.

But yeah.. after first watching him (SR) skate I thought he was bust material.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Who would have guessed that 3 out of the top 5 would bust in that draft class and that Draisaitl was the one who didn't

I wouldn't call Sam Reinhart a bust. He had 25 goals, 50 points last season. Although that isn't exactly high-end production, that's far from bust territory. Throughout his career, he has been a ~20 goal, ~45 point player while averaging 17 minutes per game.

His points-per-game average of 0.58 and goals-per-game of 0.27 over the last three seasons are very comparable to Bo Horvat's 0.60 points-per-game and 0.26 goals-per-game averages from 2015-16 to 2017-18. Bo has averaged 18 minutes per game in that time frame.

However, Bo is on an upward trajectory, whereas Reinhart seems to be stalling.

Two of the top five picks in 2014 are busts, though. Sam Bennett and Michael Dal Colle were regrettable choices.

Jake has 15 goals, 27 points in 89 games over the last two seasons with an average of 12:07 of TOI per game.

This season, he has 5 goals, 7 points in 14 games with 12:49 of TOI per game and is shooting 18.5% with 27 shots on goal so far (1.93 per game). Last year, he had a shooting percentage of 7.7%.

1.93 shots per game would equate to 158 shots over 82 games. Last season, he had 130 shots, but a low shooting percentage. A 13% shooting percentage over 158 shots would be 20 goals, so as long as Jake keeps putting the puck on net, his shooting percentage can drop to 13% from his current 18.5% and he would still be looking at a 20-goal season. A higher shooting percentage would mean 20+ this year; an 18.5% shooting percentage over 158 shots is 29 goals, for example. He's on pace for 158 shots this season while receiving 12:49 per game. He is generating chances, and this season his chances look more dangerous than before; he isn't just lobbing pucks into the goaltender's chest anymore.

If Jake gains some consistency, I think he'll receive more ice time and be in a great position to break out this year. More ice time means more shots on goal. His shooting technique looks better so far, and his forechecking is one of his strongest attributes. He doesn't play on the first powerplay unit either.

At his current rate of shots per minute, an increase to 15 minutes per game would bring his estimated number of shots this season up to 185. A 13% shooting percentage over 185 shots is 24 goals. A 15% shooting percentage would equate to 27 goals. A 17% shooting percentage would equate to 31 goals.

Effectively, if he continues to put shots on goal at his current rate but plays second-line minutes and converts at a decent rate (13-15%), he can hit 25 to 30 goals.

5 goals over 14 games prorates to 29 goals over 82. A 20 to 25 goal pace is actually quite sustainable as long as Jake's shooting percentage doesn't plummet. He's doing a lot with his ice time, and he isn't getting much ice time.







Jake just turned 22, and this year seems likely to be his breakout season.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Ok looks like I'll be eating crow on JVs goal totals predictions.

Good on Jake.

 

[Duodenum]

I'm more impressed at how much better defensively he's gotten over the years. Has his head on a swivel on the defensive end and rarely loses his man.

 

[AlexandreBurrows]

Virtanen seems quicker on his release this season and he's hitting top shelf corner.

And accurate. Virtanen's development is really reminding me of Kes. Kesler had wheels but just couldn't control the puck and be accurate at high speeds. Missed the net a ton. Then after 3 or 4 years the the Bigs, he finally got a handle of it and started putting up lots of goals.

 

[DL44]

And accurate. Virtanen's development is really reminding me of Kes. Kesler had wheels but just couldn't control the puck and be accurate at high speeds. Missed the net a ton. Then after 3 or 4 years the the Bigs, he finally got a handle of it and started putting up lots of goals.

Good observation. Early Kesler was not considered a smart Kesler.

 

[Canucks1096]

Canucks1096 said -

We are wrong on what? So 5 goals in 14 games proves that Virtanen is the perfect 2nd/3rd line winger.

Kassian 5 goals in his first 7 games in 2013

Macann 5 goals in first 9 games in 2016.

So did you think Kassian and Macann would be 1st line players back then?


​

What? You realize you are quoting someone who specifically said "never going to be a 1st line player, but ..."

Seriously, what is the point of a post like this other than to be a Debbie Downer?

for that matter, what happened to all the jerks who were yelling for the last 2 - 3 years that we should see if we can get a 4th rounder for him. He's never going to be Nylander or Ehlers but he's a totally different skill set, and is valuable. Way to early to see if he can translate this decent start to full season, but its very good news.

And it sure looks like we have our # 1 center as well.​

Can you find some past threads that said Virtanen should be traded for a 4th round pick? A lot people that thought he was a bust still thought he can become a 3rd line player.

My point is that user is using a small sample size of 5 goal in 14 games calling Virtanen the perfect 2nd/3rd line winger. Calling someone a 2nd line player in such a small sample size is ridiculous. Macann and Kassian streaks was more impressive than Virtanen. So if Virtanen is called 2nd line player after a impressive streak. So Macann and Kassian should be called a 1st line player

 

[Canucks1096]

Ok looks like I'll be eating crow on JVs goal totals predictions.

Good on Jake.

What was your goal prediction for Virtanen?

I remember my prediction was 12 to 14 goals. I am still going by that.

 

[DL44]

Can you find some past threads that said Virtanen should be traded for a 4th round pick? A lot people that thought he was a bust still thought he can become a 3rd line player.

My point is that user is using a small sample size of 5 goal in 14 games calling Virtanen the perfect 2nd/3rd line winger. Calling someone a 2nd line player in such a small sample size is ridiculous. Macann and Kassian streaks was more impressive than Virtanen. So if Virtanen is called 2nd line player after a impressive streak. So Macann and Kassian should be called a 1st line player

Impressive use of logic.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

If he gets to be a 20-25 goal scorer who leads the team in hits then he may end up as valuable as Ehlers. Just a different type of player. Not saying he will get there but if he does he looks like a decent pick. Nylander will probably always be the guy we should have taken but the gap wouldn’t be nearly as big if Jake can turn into that type of player. Every team needs a mix of high end skill and physical players.
I’m really pulling for him. I love those kind of fast skating hard hitting players.

 

[Lindgren]

What was your goal prediction for Virtanen?

I remember my prediction was 12 to 14 goals. I am still going by that.

I was 17-19 (at least I think that was the range). I'm congratulating myself now because it may be the only opportunity.

 

[stampedingviking]

Can you find some past threads that said Virtanen should be traded for a 4th round pick? A lot people that thought he was a bust still thought he can become a 3rd line player.

My point is that user is using a small sample size of 5 goal in 14 games calling Virtanen the perfect 2nd/3rd line winger. Calling someone a 2nd line player in such a small sample size is ridiculous. Macann and Kassian streaks was more impressive than Virtanen. So if Virtanen is called 2nd line player after a impressive streak. So Macann and Kassian should be called a 1st line player

Then he wouldn't be a bust, "just" very disappointing.

 

[iFan]

Great to see Virtanen putting things together, if he can develop into a gritty, petty top 6 winger I’ll be thrilled! as we need just that.

 

[supercanuck]

Who would have guessed that 3 out of the top 5 would bust in that draft class and that Draisaitl was the one who didn't

What a weird draft class. Even Ekblad seems to have stalled in his trajectory (perhaps due to multiple concussions?). I though he was going to be a Team Canada type #1 dman. Still could get there I suppose.

Back to the topic of Jake (sort of), how did this whole ShotgunJake thing start anyways?

 

[THE Green Man]

If Jake gains some consistency, I think he'll receive more ice time and be in a great position to break out this year. More ice time means more shots on goal. His shooting technique looks better so far, and his forechecking is one of his strongest attributes. He doesn't play on the first powerplay unit either.

Best 2 game stretch for Jake in his career by far. He was excellent last night even if he didn't score. If his release is so much better this year as it appears to be I wouldn't mind seeing him on the first PP instead of Goldobin in the slot spot. Goldy isn't really suited there as he seems to be more of a passer that can run the 2nd unit from either side.

 

[Canucks1096]

Then he wouldn't be a bust, "just" very disappointing.

Draft (sports) - Wikipedia

Feel free to change the meaning of the word busts in sports. But the reality of it is Virtanen is a bust because he failed to meet expectations.

 

[Josepho]

I know the use of the word bust is subjective as hell but I really don't think an actively contributing Virtanen should be used in the same sentence as someone like Kyle Beach or Brandon Gormley.

Also wouldn't call someone like RNH a bust.

 

[TheOtherGM]

Jake's always been a player I've had to fight to temper my expectations on.
There's so much physical ability there and every season he taps into a little bit more of it.
His release on the three goals he's scored against Minnesota/Chicago was lightning quick, and the velocity/accuracy on his shot is more reminiscent of what we saw in his junior days.
I don't know why those elements of his game would suddenly look better, but I hope this is a sign of things to come. Now that he's not a defensive liability, and is actually a net defensive plus, he'll get more opportunities to work on the offensive side of his game.
But it's all about consistency. One point in eight games followed by three goals in two games kind of sums up the Virtanen experience so far.
But that's the case for a lot of early 20's players, and hopefully that's the next thing he irons out because when he's on, he's a dominant player.

Wheels. Size. Shot. Check. Check. Check.
He doesn't have to be a Mensa candidate to be a difference maker if he can keep his feet moving, punish opponents physically, drive to the net and develop a power-forward repertoire.

This is one player I look forward to seeing in a playoff series one day, because I believe he'll be a monster.