Prospect Info: Jake Neighbours signs ELC

[Stealth JD]

If you play CHL you are ineligible for ncaa hockey.

You think that might change now (or in the coming years) with athletes being compensated.

 

[Blueston]

You think that might change now (or in the coming years) with athletes being compensated.

Interesting question. NCAA is so screwed up.

 

[BlueDream]

In Jim Thomas' article in the P-D on Neighbours, it says in there that Doug Armstrong assured Neighbours he was staying put at the deadline.

Interesting, and good to hear. If Armstrong was that positive about not moving him, I have to think the Blues will use that same mindset in trade discussions this Summer. Obviously there's no guarantees because you don't know who may be available, but I'm really high on Jake and think he'll be a great complement to our young core.

That next wave of young players we have is similar to the older group we won the Cup with.

ROR (two-way #1 center) = Thomas
Tarasenko (game-breaking winger) = Kyrou
Schwartz (versatile top 6 winger) = Buchnevich
Schenn (physical, all around game) = Neighbours
Perron (talented French-Canadian) = Bolduc

 

[Stealth JD]

In Jim Thomas' article in the P-D on Neighbours, it says in there that Doug Armstrong assured Neighbours he was staying put at the deadline.

Interesting, and good to hear. If Armstrong was that positive about not moving him, I have to think the Blues will use that same mindset in trade discussions this Summer. Obviously there's no guarantees because you don't know who may be available, but I'm really high on Jake and think he'll be a great complement to our young core.

That next wave of young players we have is similar to the older group we won the Cup with.

ROR (two-way #1 center) = Thomas
Tarasenko (game-breaking winger) = Kyrou
Schwartz (versatile top 6 winger) = Buchnevich
Schenn (physical, all around game) = Neighbours
Perron (talented French-Canadian) = Bolduc

Now we just need Kessell = Petro, Perunivich = Shatty = Sanford & a pick; Loof = Eddy; Brown = Maroon and Hofer = Binny

 

[bleedblue1223]

Neighbours is all but assured a spot on the team next season IMO. At a minimum he takes a Kostin type role of someone who starts on the 4th line to develop, but has skill to play in top 9 permanently if that development goes well.

Sometimes people forget about the prospects at the trade deadline. Those kids are probably more tuned into social media than not, so I'm sure he saw the Blues being connected with guys like Chychrun and every other big name defenseman, so good on Army to reassure him and any other prospect that they can ignore the rumor mill.

 

[Majorityof1]

In Jim Thomas' article in the P-D on Neighbours, it says in there that Doug Armstrong assured Neighbours he was staying put at the deadline.

Interesting, and good to hear. If Armstrong was that positive about not moving him, I have to think the Blues will use that same mindset in trade discussions this Summer. Obviously there's no guarantees because you don't know who may be available, but I'm really high on Jake and think he'll be a great complement to our young core.

That next wave of young players we have is similar to the older group we won the Cup with.

ROR (two-way #1 center) = Thomas
Tarasenko (game-breaking winger) = Kyrou
Schwartz (versatile top 6 winger) = Buchnevich
Schenn (physical, all around game) = Neighbours
Perron (talented French-Canadian) = Bolduc

It seems dumb to promise a prospect you will not trade him. You can say you aren't shopping him, or even offering him. But if Bill Armstrong came and offered next year's first and Chychrun for Neighbors, Binnington and Scandella than Neighbors would be out the door. Or at least he should be. It's an exageration on the offer, as they obviously wouldn't offer that. But the point stands. Imagine if Armstrong promised Tage Thompson he wasn't going anywhere before Buffalo offered us ROR.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It seems dumb to promise a prospect you will not trade him. You can say you aren't shopping him, or even offering him. But if Bill Armstrong came and offered a top 5 protected first and Chychrun for Neighbors, Binnington and Scandella than Neighbors would be out the door. Or at least he should be. Imagine if Armstrong promised Tage Thompson he wasn't going anywhere before Buffalo offered us ROR.

Army also knew what the market was when he told Neighbours that. I seriously doubt he tells all "top" prospects that, as he's traded a few of them away while he's been here.

 

[Majorityof1]

Army also knew what the market was when he told Neighbours that. I seriously doubt he tells all "top" prospects that, as he's traded a few of them away while he's been here.

He knew the market on the ROR trade too. He moved on from the trade, signed Bozak. Then the trade came back around again. You may know that nobody is giving you a too good to turn down deal now, but you can never know until the trade deadline is over that that won't change.

 

[BlueDream]

Army also knew what the market was when he told Neighbours that. I seriously doubt he tells all "top" prospects that, as he's traded a few of them away while he's been here.

Right, like I'm sure Thompson never got that message.

Thomas and Kyrou though, certainly a possibility.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He knew the market on the ROR trade too. He moved on from the trade, signed Bozak. Then the trade came back around again. You may know that nobody is giving you a too good to turn down deal now, but you can never know until the trade deadline is over that that won't change.

But, it's also clear that Army isn't afraid to trade "top" prospects, so I doubt he's saying that to every "top" prospect. There are prospects that internally are a tier above, Neighbours is that currently. I don't think Thompson or Bokk were ever to that level. I bet Thomas was, and I'm unsure on Kyrou at the time of that trade.

I'd bet Neighbours is the only prospect we currently have that would get that type of assurance. We realistically aren't getting a trade offer with him included that would make sense for us to automatically accept.

 

[Majorityof1]

Right, like I'm sure Thompson never got that message.

Thomas and Kyrou though, certainly a possibility.

That's not my point. My point is that there is no prospect so untouchable they won't be moved for the right offer. I mean, generational talent sure, but not anyone we've ever had. Especially not Neighbours, even at the most generous assessment of his potential.

 

[Thallis]

It seems dumb to promise a prospect you will not trade him. You can say you aren't shopping him, or even offering him. But if Bill Armstrong came and offered next year's first and Chychrun for Neighbors, Binnington and Scandella than Neighbors would be out the door. Or at least he should be. It's an exageration on the offer, as they obviously wouldn't offer that. But the point stands. Imagine if Armstrong promised Tage Thompson he wasn't going anywhere before Buffalo offered us ROR.

By the time the deadline comes, they've had all the discussions and you know what the ballpark is. It's not unreasonable to have already decided the framework was unworkable and tell the prospect he's staying. Armstrong could also just lie lol

 

[Blueston]

By the time the deadline comes, they've had all the discussions and you know what the ballpark is. It's not unreasonable to have already decided the framework was unworkable and tell the prospect he's staying. Armstrong could also just lie lol

I don’t think army would lie to him, but things change. Army knew nothing in his vision would cause him to move neighbors and he told the kid that. But if morning of trade deadline dallas decided was time to deal heiskanen and they needed neighbors in package, Arny wouldn’t say no just bc he told kid he wouldn’t be dealt. You apologize to player and say this came on suddenly and was special situation and felt had to do it.

 

[Brian39]

It seems dumb to promise a prospect you will not trade him. You can say you aren't shopping him, or even offering him. But if Bill Armstrong came and offered next year's first and Chychrun for Neighbors, Binnington and Scandella than Neighbors would be out the door. Or at least he should be. It's an exageration on the offer, as they obviously wouldn't offer that. But the point stands. Imagine if Armstrong promised Tage Thompson he wasn't going anywhere before Buffalo offered us ROR.

I think you're reading way too much into a 2nd hand report of Army's assurance to him. Thomas didn't offer a quotation, so we have a reporter summarizing a prospect's summary of his conversation with a GM (or more likely a reporter summarizing a prospect summarizing his conversation with his agent who summarized what Army told him). We also have no idea whether this was a week before the deadline or 2 hours before the deadline. These types of conversations are usually had between a GM and an agent. If they are GM to player, they are usually the result of the agent asking the GM to reach out to the kid directly after such a conversation. And at the end of the day, none of these conversations are binding.

These prospects have had agents family advisors since they were 15 or 16 years old. They understand that an assurance that you're not getting traded doesn't mean that you are untouchable if the Oilers call looking to trade Connor McDavid.

I'd wager a large sum of money that there was no explicit "promise" made to Neighbours that he wasn't being traded. Without an actual quote of what was said, we are all just speculating, but I'd bet good money that the reality was along the lines of "you're agent told me that you are getting a little worried based on how much you've seen your name in online trade proposals. I'm calling to put your mind at ease. We've been in talks with a bunch of teams, but you haven't been included in any of the offers we've sent out. I can't go into any details about those discussions, but don't stress about the deadline. We're excited to get you back to St. Louis." Or it was after the Leddy trade when we were done for the day.

 

[MissouriMook]

By the time the deadline comes, they've had all the discussions and you know what the ballpark is. It's not unreasonable to have already decided the framework was unworkable and tell the prospect he's staying. Armstrong could also just lie lol

Not to mention the fact that if Army had decided that Neighbours was only in play for Chychrun and he knew from talking to BA that Chychrun wasn't moving (which he didn't) then he had a lot more confidence to calm the nerves of his prospect knowing that unless a deal too go to pass up came completely out of left field he wasn't moving him.

Personally, I feel it is more likely that Army simply wasn't going to be interested in trading any premium futures (1st rounders or top prospects) to try to win this year. He sees the flaws of this team just like we do and he knows how to pick his spots.

 

[Majorityof1]

I think you're reading way too much into a 2nd hand report of Army's assurance to him. Thomas didn't offer a quotation, so we have a reporter summarizing a prospect's summary of his conversation with a GM (or more likely a reporter summarizing a prospect summarizing his conversation with his agent who summarized what Army told him). We also have no idea whether this was a week before the deadline or 2 hours before the deadline. These types of conversations are usually had between a GM and an agent. If they are GM to player, they are usually the result of the agent asking the GM to reach out to the kid directly after such a conversation. And at the end of the day, none of these conversations are binding.

These prospects have had agents family advisors since they were 15 or 16 years old. They understand that an assurance that you're not getting traded doesn't mean that you are untouchable if the Oilers call looking to trade Connor McDavid.

I'd wager a large sum of money that there was no explicit "promise" made to Neighbours that he wasn't being traded. Without an actual quote of what was said, we are all just speculating, but I'd bet good money that the reality was along the lines of "you're agent told me that you are getting a little worried based on how much you've seen your name in online trade proposals. I'm calling to put your mind at ease. We've been in talks with a bunch of teams, but you haven't been included in any of the offers we've sent out. I can't go into any details about those discussions, but don't stress about the deadline. We're excited to get you back to St. Louis." Or it was after the Leddy trade when we were done for the day.

You are probably right. I am definitely caught up on the language, and it is coming from a tertiary-hand quote. The term "you are not being traded" is an implicit promise, even if not explicit one. Violating enough of those might not be legally actionable but they do create bad blood and possibly a bad image.. It wouldn't be a big error if he said it and traded Neigbours, but it would be an unforced one. Its much easier to just say, we aren't shopping you and we value you far more than anything we have been offered yet. If it is the quote you said, then that is absolutely fine, good even.

The other issue I have is I don't value Neighbours anywhere near how much this organization does. If I was GM, I'd be calling Neighbours to pack his bags. If someone is giving me first round value for him, I'm taking it.

 

[Brian39]

The other issue I have is I don't value Neighbours anywhere near how much this organization does. If I was GM, I'd be calling Neighbours to pack his bags. If someone is giving me first round value for him, I'm taking it.

I'm not married to him as a prospect, but I don't see the point in seeking out a trade of him for 1st round value. He's near-NHL ready and should be making an actual bottom 6 contribution by 2023/24. I think he is already good enough to be a 4th line or 13th NHL forward and should be able to play on either bottom 6 line in 2023/24 and 2024/25. Maybe he spends time in the AHL next year to get minutes, but I'd say his floor is making a contribution on an ELC for 2 years when we are in a legit cap crunch. He absolutely has upside for more than that, but that looks to be a fairly safe floor in the short term.

If we can get an appealing roster piece for him, then I'm fine trading him. But I'm not looking to trade him just to get 1st round value. I don't want to get a higher upside 1st round prospect that is 1-2 more years away (or who is more of a risk to wash out before the NHL).

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I don't understand why we would trade a 1st-round pick from 2020 for 1st-round value.

He IS 1st-round value and barely out of the draft.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm not married to him as a prospect, but I don't see the point in seeking out a trade of him for 1st round value. He's near-NHL ready and should be making an actual bottom 6 contribution by 2023/24. I think he is already good enough to be a 4th line or 13th NHL forward and should be able to play on either bottom 6 line in 2023/24 and 2024/25. Maybe he spends time in the AHL next year to get minutes, but I'd say his floor is making a contribution on an ELC for 2 years when we are in a legit cap crunch. He absolutely has upside for more than that, but that looks to be a fairly safe floor in the short term.

If we can get an appealing roster piece for him, then I'm fine trading him. But I'm not looking to trade him just to get 1st round value. I don't want to get a higher upside 1st round prospect that is 1-2 more years away (or who is more of a risk to wash out before the NHL).

His floor may be a 4th liner but I disagree his ceiling is higher. I have seen zero in the way of NHL offensive skill from him. He has good board work and decent passing from the boards. But that isn't making him more than a defensive 3rd liner. I don't care if we get ELC kids to play on the 4th line. You can go sign a vet for about the same to play on the 4th line. Walker costs the same as an ELC. Less even because of the bonuses. Walker has played better in his short stints than I think we'll ever see from Neigbours. Play Walker in the bottom 6, toss Neighbours to some other team for a draft pick and draft someone with actual high end potential that could fill a top 6 role while on an ELC or while cost-controlled.

 

[LGB]

His floor may be a 4th liner but I disagree his ceiling is higher. I have seen zero in the way of NHL offensive skill from him. He has good board work and decent passing from the boards. But that isn't making him more than a defensive 3rd liner. I don't care if we get ELC kids to play on the 4th line. You can go sign a vet for about the same to play on the 4th line. Walker costs the same as an ELC. Less even because of the bonuses. Walker has played better in his short stints than I think we'll ever see from Neigbours. Play Walker in the bottom 6, toss Neighbours to some other team for a draft pick and draft someone with actual high end potential that could fill a top 6 role while on an ELC or while cost-controlled.

Where have you watched him? I'd like to know more about a few of our top guys outside of highlights and point totals but cut ups are tough to find.

 

[Blueston]

His floor may be a 4th liner but I disagree his ceiling is higher. I have seen zero in the way of NHL offensive skill from him. He has good board work and decent passing from the boards. But that isn't making him more than a defensive 3rd liner. I don't care if we get ELC kids to play on the 4th line. You can go sign a vet for about the same to play on the 4th line. Walker costs the same as an ELC. Less even because of the bonuses. Walker has played better in his short stints than I think we'll ever see from Neigbours. Play Walker in the bottom 6, toss Neighbours to some other team for a draft pick and draft someone with actual high end potential that could fill a top 6 role while on an ELC or while cost-controlled.

Because he'll never get better than he is as 19 year old in his first taste of nhl action. Right. Great plan.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

If his ceiling is in the mold of Dustin Brown I don't want to move him unless it's for a LHD with massive upside.
He just turned 20 last week and has already spent a full season within our system. The way our roster is trending toward more speed and skill leaves room for a do it all sandpaper role in our top 9 and he fits that bill.

 

[Majorityof1]

Where have you watched him? I'd like to know more about a few of our top guys outside of highlights and point totals but cut ups are tough to find.

You can buy a package to stream WHL games, or any CHL league. Just google CHL TV. There are daily, monthly and season options. I generally snag a month or even a day if I have some time and there are multiple interesting prospects playing. The day pass is like a buck more than renting a 4k movie on demand and you can watch a ton of hockey. There are game replays as well going a week or so back, so you can watch several games on your one day. Day and month passes are unfortunately only good for one league, but the yearly or playoff passes can be bought for all 3 leagues.

Then of course there are Blues events, like training camp, pre-season, Traverse city, etc. Plus highlight packages and scouting reports. Its really not hard to follow a CHL prospect if you have time and a little bit of money. Its much harder to follow the Europeans for me.

 

[Majorityof1]

Because he'll never get better than he is as 19 year old in his first taste of nhl action. Right. Great plan.

I don't think he will get better, at least not much better. He is behind the curve for his age on several areas and is getting by on his strength. Don't get me wrong, the kid is wicked strong for his age and tenacious. I just don't think he has the frame to add enough extra strength for that to be a ++ level asset at the NHL level. His skating is fine but his shot, and his passing and instincts in open ice are poor. He's Barbashev with less offensive skills.

That's just my opinion and I could be wrong. My analysis could be off. Or he could improve more than expected. But I was saying what I would do if I were GM, so of course its my opinion.

 

[Blueston]

I don't think he will get better, at least not much better. He is behind the curve for his age on several areas and is getting by on his strength. Don't get me wrong, the kid is wicked strong for his age and tenacious. I just don't think he has the frame to add enough extra strength for that to be a ++ level asset at the NHL level. His skating is fine but his shot, and his passing and instincts in open ice are poor. He's Barbashev with less offensive skills.

That's just my opinion and I could be wrong. My analysis could be off. Or he could improve more than expected. But I was saying what I would do if I were GM, so of course its my opinion.

Oi vey.