Prospect Info: Jake Neighbours signs ELC

[Ted Hoffman]

From what I've read, he was a polarizing prospect and you could get a wide range of opinions on him. You could see talk of him being a 2nd liner in the mold of Matthew Tkachuk, you could see him talked about as a bottom-6 guy who could be better than that if he gets things together, you could see him talked about as someone who has a good shot and plays physical and such but whose decision-making can be suspect and won't cut it in the pros. The final rankings from various sources:

McKeen’s Hockey: #23
McKenzie/TSN: #31
Corey Pronman, The Athletic: #42
Future Considerations: #45
Last Word on Hockey: #48 [from May]
Hockey Prospect: #51
Scott Wheeler, The Athletic: #51
Dobber Prospects: #60
Elite Prospects: NR [out of 129; he was specifically on their "Do Not Draft" list after being 65th earlier in the year]

Anything else I've seen are in the 40s, which is pretty much in the middle of the above. So, a semi-wide range of ideas but consensus was mid-2nd round somewhere and that someone was probably going to reach for him and it was a question of who.

I did find this comment from someone who said they were familiar with him, having watched him for a good chunk of the season. It's ... well, not exactly inspiring:

Exactly what I was going to post! He’s got a lot of intangibles…He reminds me a lot of Kyle Chipchura…he’s got all the intangibles, lots of skill…but his skating is just not anywhere near NHL quality. IMO He’s not the type of player you can pick up in the first round and be successful though. He’s a very high-risk player; especially in a league that’s as fast as the NHL. You pick him in the 2nd round, and hope that he can find a couple of extra gears in his skating game…because if he doesn’t he’s not going crack your lineup.

If we got something like Chipchura, that wouldn't be the worst thing but I'd wonder why we didn't trade back for that. [I wouldn't have been opposed to trading back at all.] Chipchura was better than Lukas Kaspar and Kris Chucko and Robbie Schremp and he managed to scratch out ~480 games while basically filling a 3rd/4th line role and being pretty ordinary while doing it, so he could have been worse. However, he was also widely projected as having an upside no higher than a 3rd-line guy but with leadership qualities that were supposed to somehow make up for that.

One thing that raises flags for me on Neighbours: listen to him and his coaches talk about his game, they talk a decent amount about his physical play. That's great, but for someone who was 18th in the WHL in scoring and who was considered a scorer pre-WHL, if that's where they're talking about more than a little, it makes me wonder why. Not "hit the panic button" kind of questioning, but "why is that such a big deal?" kind of questioning.

 

[67Blues]

This guy strikes me like Jaskin when we drafted him. I checked on Jaskin over in the KHL and he had a pretty good year at 31g/32a +34 and 75 PIMs.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Elite Prospects: NR [out of 129; he was specifically on their "Do Not Draft" list after being 65th earlier in the year]

I couldn't find any additional info as to why they listed him as DND. Just seems a little odd to me given the lack of reasoning behind it, unless they have that hidden behind their premium.

 

[simon IC]

I still would have preferred O'Rourke, but I don't want to be too negative about Neighbours. He's here, he's in the system. There is nothing to do really but wait and see how he develops.

 

[kimzey59]

I thought Neighbors was a good skater. I might be wrong, but does everyone realize he finished 18th in the WHL in scoring. Going into his draft year. His production was nearly x3 from the previous year. He scored x2 goals from the previous year. Reminds me a bit of Thomas where he was behind a few people and when he got the opportunity, he took off. I also looked at his splits. From January on he failed to produce in only 4 games. Too bad we didn't get the playoffs, I would have liked to see how he did.

In regards to his skating- Really good balance and edgework; but average straight line speed and below average acceleration(poor first step).
The big thing is going to be improving that first step quickness and adding some power to his stride. Those are teachable skills that should improve as he develops, but he still needs to put the work into it.
As for his skill- For some reason people don't like to consider board work a real skill and Neighbours' forte is his ability to create things off the boards. He's not the type that is going to dance his way through defenders to get points. He's going to level them behind the net and then find an open guy in the crease. In a lot of ways, Neighbours reminds me a lot of a young Ryan O'Reilly.

 

[simon IC]

Let's keep this about Jake Neighbours.

 

[Blueston]

In regards to his skating- Really good balance and edgework; but average straight line speed and below average acceleration(poor first step).
The big thing is going to be improving that first step quickness and adding some power to his stride. Those are teachable skills that should improve as he develops, but he still needs to put the work into it.
As for his skill- For some reason people don't like to consider board work a real skill and Neighbours' forte is his ability to create things off the boards. He's not the type that is going to dance his way through defenders to get points. He's going to level them behind the net and then find an open guy in the crease. In a lot of ways, Neighbours reminds me a lot of a young Ryan O'Reilly.

Thank you. We too often get fixated on highlight reel skills and don’t focus enough on less sexy things that can make a player. What would this forum say if we drafted ROR? Spent a top 10 pick on Schenn? I don’t know whether Neighbours will be able to take next step, but I can certainly envision path for him to be top 6 winger. Hope he makes it.

 

[joe galiba]

Brian Sutter was a good hockey player
what set him apart was a certain skill he had
the ability to outwork the player across from him, over and over and over
and just like skating, you can coach people up and make them better, but they will never match those who have it naturally
it is infectious for your team and demoralizing for the opponents
completely underrated

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

When we drafted Rob Thom I likened him to Doug Weight. He hasn’t been quite that player, but you can tell he has it in him to be.

I’ve heard Morrow and Lucic about Neighbors, and although we got Morrow on the downswing of his career and Lucic imploded after Boston, both of them were dominant in their primes. If JN turns out to be like them in the same way that RT has turned out like Weight, we should be thrilled.

The one thing I will say to his benefit is that his style of game isn’t like Kyrou’s where it’s top-6 or bust. You can start him on the 4th line and ease him in (like Schwartz) because he isn’t all-skill all the time.

I have my doubts, and overall it was a fairly uninspiring pick imo, but if he does what he needs to do, then I’ll be satisfied. Or we’ll just trade him like we did with Bokk.

 

[Frenzy31]

I still would have preferred O'Rourke, but I don't want to be too negative about Neighbours. He's here, he's in the system. There is nothing to do really but wait and see how he develops.

We are not the only ones who passed on O'Rourke. He didn't go until pick 39. With the number of options available and quite frankly with the lack of time necessary to do a real scouting of each player in the top 60, it is hard to judge.

I think at times we get 1 poster who is high on a player and then talks that person up - and soon everyone is on-board with taking him - creating this kind of group think. Everyone then continues to focus a bit on that person or couple of players and when we don't take him everyone is down a bit on the guy we took. It also prevents a bit of a deep dive into every player and we just focus on the few that are brought up by others. AND I AM JUST A QUILTY AS EVERYONE ELSE.

This isn't aimed at your directly, but just a general observation. Especially with everything going on with social media. (Just finished watching the Social Dilemma on netflix so group think is on my mind a bit).

 

[simon IC]

We are not the only ones who passed on O'Rourke. He didn't go until pick 39. With the number of options available and quite frankly with the lack of time necessary to do a real scouting of each player in the top 60, it is hard to judge.

I think at times we get 1 poster who is high on a player and then talks that person up - and soon everyone is on-board with taking him - creating this kind of group think. Everyone then continues to focus a bit on that person or couple of players and when we don't take him everyone is down a bit on the guy we took. It also prevents a bit of a deep dive into every player and we just focus on the few that are brought up by others. AND I AM JUST A QUILTY AS EVERYONE ELSE.

This isn't aimed at your directly, but just a general observation. Especially with everything going on with social media. (Just finished watching the Social Dilemma on netflix so group think is on my mind a bit).

Very astute observation! I completely agree with you.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I couldn't find any additional info as to why they listed him as DND. Just seems a little odd to me given the lack of reasoning behind it, unless they have that hidden behind their premium.

Hidden behind the paywall, but I saw a few things from deep digging and it seems like their concern is that he's more likely to bust than boom and his bust downsize is enormous. Like, "might land in the ECHL and struggle there before finally bailing for Europe" kind of downside.

We are not the only ones who passed on O'Rourke. He didn't go until pick 39. With the number of options available and quite frankly with the lack of time necessary to do a real scouting of each player in the top 60, it is hard to judge.

This happens literally every year, and every so often people go on a massive lament-fest about how could we possibly have picked X at spot Y, we could have had Z and P and Q and .... - all ignoring the information that was present at the time and that in some of those cases, those other players were passed up by teams once, twice, thrice, and so on.

If we all spent a year scouting and then sat in a room discussing where we thought guys should be ranked, every one of us would have different opinions of who should be where in even the top-5. Now extend that to top-30, top-60, etc. and then try to figure out how you pull all of that together into one cohesive ranking that (a) is representative, and (b) truly accurate for where guys are going to rank 10 years out. That's why if you can scout and be better about identifying the 17-year olds who are going to make it and the ones who aren't, you're going to have a job for as long as you want and be highly sought after by teams around the league and private scouting organizations - and even those people still have significant misses.

 

[stl76]

I think at times we get 1 poster who is high on a player and then talks that person up - and soon everyone is on-board with taking him - creating this kind of group think. Everyone then continues to focus a bit on that person or couple of players and when we don't take him everyone is down a bit on the guy we took. It also prevents a bit of a deep dive into every player and we just focus on the few that are brought up by others. AND I AM JUST A QUILTY AS EVERYONE ELSE.

I am 100% guilty of this. You hit the nail on the head here haha

Honestly, I had barely read anything about Neighbours before we drafted him. Looking forward to learning more about him as we watch him develop.

 

[Frenzy31]

I am 100% guilty of this. You hit the nail on the head here haha

Honestly, I had barely read anything about Neighbours before we drafted him. Looking forward to learning more about him as we watch him develop.

I am very much in the same vein as you. I haven’t paid near as much attention to the prospects since 2012. I come here looking for info, and so I also get very much caught up in the group think.

This just reminds me so much of the TJ Oshie saga. Most were not happy with the pick, especially over Stas. And the guy I liked, who we took early in the second round, never made it to the AHL. Pretty sure he was a complete bust.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I am very much in the same vein as you. I haven’t paid near as much attention to the prospects since 2012. I come here looking for info, and so I also get very much caught up in the group think.

This just reminds me so much of the TJ Oshie saga. Most were not happy with the pick, especially over Stas. And the guy I liked, who we took early in the second round, never made it to the AHL. Pretty sure he was a complete bust.

It wasn't even just Stastny, who Colorado thought so highly of they passed over him at 34 to take Ryan Stoa (who logged a massive 40 NHL games for his career). Andrew Cogliano was taken right behind Oshie and was in the NHL during 2007-08 and had 18-27-45, and there was a small but vocal group incensed that we didn't take him and who SWORE TO f***ING GOD Oshie would never hit that. That 45 points remains the career high for Cogliano; he had 18 goals the following season, and had a career-high 21 in 2013-14 which is the only other season he topped 40 points.

Our 2nd-round pick, Scott Jackson (37th) wasn't a total bust. He played in the NHL. Once. For 13:44 in that one game.

 

[Frenzy31]

It wasn't even just Stastny, who Colorado thought so highly of they passed over him at 34 to take Ryan Stoa (who logged a massive 40 NHL games for his career). Andrew Cogliano was taken right behind Oshie and was in the NHL during 2007-08 and had 18-27-45, and there was a small but vocal group incensed that we didn't take him and who SWORE TO f***ING GOD Oshie would never hit that. That 45 points remains the career high for Cogliano; he had 18 goals the following season, and had a career-high 21 in 2013-14 which is the only other season he topped 40 points.

Our 2nd-round pick, Scott Jackson (37th) wasn't a total bust. He played in the NHL. Once. For 13:44 in that one game.

That is right. I completely forgot about the Cogs thing..... Didn't help he went to Edmonton and we all know some in their fan base. My memory is starting to go to poop. Thanks for the Scott Jackson - I was too lazy to look it up.

 

[JoshFromMO]

It wasn't even just Stastny, who Colorado thought so highly of they passed over him at 34 to take Ryan Stoa (who logged a massive 40 NHL games for his career). Andrew Cogliano was taken right behind Oshie and was in the NHL during 2007-08 and had 18-27-45, and there was a small but vocal group incensed that we didn't take him and who SWORE TO f***ING GOD Oshie would never hit that. That 45 points remains the career high for Cogliano; he had 18 goals the following season, and had a career-high 21 in 2013-14 which is the only other season he topped 40 points.

Our 2nd-round pick, Scott Jackson (37th) wasn't a total bust. He played in the NHL. Once. For 13:44 in that one game.

I would love to know the guys that some people wanted over who we took and how those players panned out. I know there was one guy who wanted Bogosian over Petro

 

[Novacain]

I would love to know the guys that some people wanted over who we took and how those players panned out. I know there was one guy who wanted Bogosian over Petro

I will admit there was a time when both were prospects I proposed on the trade forums that we trade Jaden Schwartz for Brandom Gormley.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I would love to know the guys that some people wanted over who we took and how those players panned out. I know there was one guy who wanted Bogosian over Petro

More than one, and the most common reasoning, IIRC, was because Bogosian was the more physical player and the more stay-at-home defender. I remember Stevens' name being invoked more than once.

I personally don't like looking back at things like that too much. I don't think "keeping score" does much to help foster productive dialogue in a community, to the point where it can be an active hindrance. We all have our misses. Besides, hindsight has a way of making past opinions look pretty silly, even if they were perfectly reasonable at the time given what we knew.

That said, I'm not above fondly remembering some past discussions that turned particularly heated where my opinions ended up being vindicated. A lesser admin might have even fantasized about, say, bumping a certain Anders Lee contract thread with a shooting percentage update, then "accidently" stickying and locking it for 24 hours or so just to shove it into some particularly hostile and abusive NYI posters' faces.

A lesser admin, mind you.

Sometimes it's best just to forget the past and turn the Tage.

<cough> I mean, page. Turn the page.

 

[Ranksu]

Idk, should I be excited his highlights?

 

[Celtic Note]

The more I watch his highlights, the more I see a Jaskin type player. The notable difference between the two is Jaskin has better hands and Neighbours has a better shot (though he needs to improve his release and velocity). Jaskin was more of a play driver. Neighbours is more a complimentary player (nothing wrong with that).

Like Jaskin, Neighbours needs to improve his skating. Not new news to anyone, obviously.

I think the other thing that I will want to see from Neighbors is how thinks the speed on the game. His highlights don’t really show a quick thinker. Most of these are slow developing plays, so it’s hard to gage his speed of thinking. Jaskin looks like the quicker thinker as a point of comparison, but admittedly the Neighbours sample size is minimal for me.

 

[jura]

blues top fan!

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Man, the opinion around him sure has changed in the past 12-18 months.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Man, the opinion around him sure has changed in the past 12-18 months.

¿Mande?

 

[TK 421]

/gets signed stick from Schenn/

"Bortuzzo's my favorite player, not Schenn."