Value of: Jake Guentzel

[Detroit Knights]

The redwings aren't trading for a player like Jake for a rental this year, that would be a stupid waste of assets.

They should only be trading for him with either an extension in place or knowing they can resign him to be a long term left winger next to larkins.

He's a guy who for the next 5 years is putting up potentially between 30 and 40 goals in that spot each year going forward.

So yeah I'm expecting a major asset back. I said either Danielsson and buium OR kaspar and berggen with the first IF a cap dump the level of maata or chariot is included is fair.

And I believe it is with the assumption Detroit is keeping Jake long term which is the only way a trade with Detroit makes sense.
Neither Danielsson or kaspar would make as much of an impact of Detroit's ability to be successful over the next five seasons, while larkin/decat are in their primes and Raymond is reaching his full potential as having Jake would, and Detroit would only lose one of them and still have a rather flush

I used the top prospect, plus b-minus, plus 1st, plus useful right now level nhler to compare what Vancouver gave up. And even in that kuzmenko is a hell of a lot better player than Rasmussen.

buium + berggren + 1st + ghost (retention if needed and can be flipped again for another pick/prospect to another team) + maatta

for

guentzel signed 4-5 years at or below DBC aav?

edit: probably too many defenders going one way :/ if ghost doesn't get flipped

 

[wej20]

buium + berggren + 1st + ghost (retention if needed and can be flipped again for another pick/prospect to another team) + maatta

for

guentzel signed 4-5 years at or below DBC aav?

edit: probably too many defenders going one way :/ if ghost doesn't get flipped

Not commenting on the value but Guentzel's not signg with anyone for less than 7 years.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Not commenting on the value but Guentzel's not signg with anyone for less than 7 years.

is that something he has said publicly or just your opinion on the matter? Genuinely asking because I haven't seen it anywhere.

 

[wej20]

is that something he has said publicly or just your opinion on the matter? Genuinely asking because I haven't seen it anywhere.

He's a prime free agent who is going to get lots of offers. Given his age this is his shot at a payday, he's not going to settle for less than 7 years (Unless someone wants to pay him 7 years worth of money for 6 years).

 

[Detroit Knights]

He's a prime free agent who is going to get lots of offers. Given his age this is his shot at a payday, he's not going to settle for less than 7 years (Unless someone wants to pay him 7 years worth of money for 6 years).

Okay, so opinion then. I am sure that is what he would prefer, but no one really knows what he wants unless he has said it publicly.

 

[wej20]

Okay, so opinion then. I am sure that is what he would prefer, but no one really knows what he wants unless he has said it publicly.

Why would he sign for under Debrincat money for 4 or 5 years? Unless Yzerman has kompromat on him.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Why would he sign for under Debrincant money for 4 or 5 years? Unless Yzerman has kompromat on him.

I have no idea and I wouldn't pretend that I would know, knowing I have not heard anything about him wanting what you are suggesting.

Why did DBC sign for what he did when he could have just not forced his way to DET and had an all out bidding war on his services? Most people were saying minimum 8 mil x 6-8 years for him.

People do crazy things, or what seems crazy to the public. If it were me, I would just continuously sign 3-4 year deals until 35 or so and do 1 year deals to ring chase (if I haven't won one yet) because the cap will continue to go up and I will get more pay increases. It is a travesty to see some of these very good players making 5-6 mil when they are now worth 8-10 mil but because they signed an 8 year contract and are now in year 4 or 5, they will just continuously outplay their contract and hurting their career earnings potential. I get that injuries are a thing, but if Guentzel is going to be a guaranteed 30-40 goal scoring winger on any team, then he would be a fool to take a 7 year deal if what he is truly after is the money. A 30-40 perennial goal scorer will always be needed and will always be paid pretty well, regardless of injury history (and i don't know guentzel's injury history, if any).

This is where Mathews is doing it the smart way. He knows he will always be great. A season ending injury to him would do nothing to his potential earning because he has solidified himself enough to always get a pay raise, unless he chooses to take less.

 

[wej20]

I have no idea and I wouldn't pretend that I would know, knowing I have not heard anything about him wanting what you are suggesting.

Why did DBC sign for what he did when he could have just not forced his way to DET and had an all out bidding war on his services? Most people were saying minimum 8 mil x 6-8 years for him.

People do crazy things, or what seems crazy to the public. If it were me, I would just continuously sign 3-4 year deals until 35 or so and do 1 year deals to ring chase (if I haven't won one yet) because the cap will continue to go up and I will get more pay increases. It is a travesty to see some of these very good players making 5-6 mil when they are now worth 8-10 mil but because they signed an 8 year contract and are now in year 4 or 5, they will just continuously outplay their contract and hurting their career earnings potential. I get that injuries are a thing, but if Guentzel is going to be a guaranteed 30-40 goal scoring winger on any team, then he would be a fool to take a 7 year deal if what he is truly after is the money. A 30-40 perennial goal scorer will always be needed and will always be paid pretty well, regardless of injury history (and i don't know guentzel's injury history, if any).

This is where Mathews is doing it the smart way. He knows he will always be great. A season ending injury to him would do nothing to his potential earning because he has solidified himself enough to always get a pay raise, unless he chooses to take less.

Debrincat was an RFA and 25 when he signed his contract, he'll have another shot at a payday. This is Guentzel's shot, they're not remotely similar situations. Debrincat was also coming off a down year, Guentzel's pacing for his best season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the return for Guentzel will be very in line with what Horvat brought back last year: a short term cap dump, a B+ prospect and a mid 1st in the 15-20 range.

I think Maatta, Berggen, Buium and a 1st from Detroit hits that value pretty well. I don't think either Berggen or Buium are B+ prospects like I viewed Raty as last year, but combined they're probably equal at worst to Raty.

Adding Maatta is another interesting option for the Penguins because it could open up trading Pettersson as well, if they want to get super aggressive and sell high on him.

 

[SnS]

I’d like the Flyers to trade for Guentzel but I don’t think it makes sense for them value wise(flyers added pain) or team construction wise.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Debrincat was an RFA and 25 when he signed his contract, he'll have another shot at a payday. This is Guentzel's shot, they're not remotely similar situations. Debrincat was also coming off a down year, Guentzel's pacing for his best season.

you are the one who made the comparison. I just said I don't think yzerman would try to get him to sign for a deal higher than DBC and would most likely offer him a 4-5 year deal. Then you asked why do I think he would sign a contract like that, and I said I have no idea why. Again, what I am trying to say is that yzerman won't offer him a 7 year deal given his age. He will offer him a 3-5 year deal range and probably won't pay him higher than DBC, since both are 40 goal scorer players, while dbc had a down year at 27 goals on a non-playoff team and his heart wasn't fully in it.

Also, of course guentzel is pacing for his best season. It's a contract year! So is Reinhart. That's the whole point of my long ass post on why players should want to take shorter term deals to get paid more.

Regardless, just because this is a contract year and he is playing his best, just because he should want a big payday with a long contract (in your opinion), does not mean that is what he is actually looking for. He has not publicly said any of this, not even through his agent (unless you have a receipt for me to look at and I can concede this point, happily but that still won't change the fact that yzerman would most likely not pay him that long/much).

Best case scenario, you have absolutely no idea what he wants but he may be looking for that 7 year deal. You cannot sit here and definitively say that he wants x or y if he hasn't come out and said anything. So, this conversation is just theoretical, while it seems like you are taking it as fact.

 

[Boondock]

Well that leads to another question - what happened to Brian Rust? Ha ha ha.


Rickard only has 18 points though...

Yeah and he's pacing for 60 goals................if he plays another 12 seasons

 

[Tact]

Mikheyev and Lekkermakki for Guentzel extended

 

[Gurglesons]

I’d like the Flyers to trade for Guentzel but I don’t think it makes sense for them value wise(flyers added pain) or team construction wise.

I can’t see them trading him within the metro.

 

[SnS]

I can’t see them trading him within the metro.

Me neither. I think it’s best served for the Penguins to send him out West. But if the Flyers insist on competing, I think trading he would be an ideal target.

But due to where they technically are at, and the value for him from an inner division team, it wouldn’t make any sense in my opinion.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If they do move him, Pens can retain down to $3M and make him available to pretty much every team regardless of cap structure. I think they’ll try to do the Giroux deal with a young talent that hasn’t locked down a spot. Not saying LA would even be interested, but I’m thinking 2024 1st + Turcotte type of trade.

 

[Strangle]

Give me your deadline trade offers for Guentzel. 40 goal scoring winger

Aged 29 turning 30.

Proven to be great during the playoffs. The beat player on the market if traded.

Let's see the offers.

Guentzel + 1st + prospect

For

Mitch Marner

 

[Bishop7979]

If they do move him, Pens can retain down to $3M and make him available to pretty much every team regardless of cap structure. I think they’ll try to do the Giroux deal with a young talent that hasn’t locked down a spot. Not saying LA would even be interested, but I’m thinking 2024 1st + Turcotte type of trade.

And giroux got a 1st and a former 1st rounder in tippett, who was projected to be a top six winger, and a 3rd, while being 4 (?) years older than Jake is now, have ten less points in ten more games than what Jake has right now, and not being extended.

Philly, while retaining, didn't take back a cap dump.

An extended Jake is worth more, especially with a cap dump coming back.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Guentzel + 1st + prospect

For

Mitch Marner

I was interested in Nylander with an 8 year deal.

As much as I'd like to do this out cupboard is dry and I am unsure if Marner would sign so I think I gotta pass.

 

[Ulf5]

If they do move him, Pens can retain down to $3M and make him available to pretty much every team regardless of cap structure. I think they’ll try to do the Giroux deal with a young talent that hasn’t locked down a spot. Not saying LA would even be interested, but I’m thinking 2024 1st + Turcotte type of trade.

Do the Preds have interest in making a run? They're right on the cusp of the playoffs.
Kemmell, Novak and pick?

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

buium + berggren + 1st + ghost (retention if needed and can be flipped again for another pick/prospect to another team) + maatta

for

guentzel signed 4-5 years at or below DBC aav?

edit: probably too many defenders going one way :/ if ghost doesn't get flipped

I'm sure you would have Dubas listening to a potential deal like that, except Maatta. Ghost yes Maatta no interest.

 

[SEALBound]

Would LA be interested:

Grundstrom+Turcotte/Kaliyev+1st
for
Guentzel@50%

Stick him with Kopitar, push Byfield to Danault, Moore with PLD. Add Guentzel would give LA a lot of interesting line combination possibilities.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Ranger killer. What would it take for the Rangers to get him?

 

[unicornpig]

Would LA be interested:

Grundstrom+Turcotte/Kaliyev+1st
for
Guentzel@50%

Stick him with Kopitar, push Byfield to Danault, Moore with PLD. Add Guentzel would give LA a lot of interesting line combination possibilities.

unless the kings turn it around and play lights out like the start of the season. i wouldn't be comfortable giving that up purely for a rental.

 

[Ryder71]

Pens aren’t that far out of a playoff spot. As much as I would hate to lose Guentzel for nothing, I would also hate to see the Pens throw in the towel on this season.

Also, if we can get rid of guys like Smith and Rakell we can easily afford to retain JG and I bet he would re-sign if we offer him fair market value in a contract. So we may not end up losing him for nothing

What? This team is going nowhere! We should absolutely get rid of Jake Provided the return is very good. Why sign him on a team that inevitably is a sinking ship? It's time to turn the page. How much more evidence could you possibly need? As far as RR goes he has little value if any. Jake would command a haul. You trade him 100%