Jaden Schwartz’s next contact

[Stealth JD]

It's getting pretty tough to figure out what to do here. There are a lot of factors that play into this:

1. Looking at our roster construction/salary cap usage, our window is now plus another two years max - at least with our current "core". Perron and Parayko become UFA after next season, Perron will be 33 and Parayko will be 28. The year after, ROR and Tarasenko become UFA. ROR will be 32 years old and Tarasenko will be 31 years old. Giving Perron, ROR, and Tarasenko large contracts past age 31 is a recipe for disaster imo. There's plenty to criticize about the Krug/Faulk/Schenn contracts, but at least they were signed prior to the player turning 30 and were all signed when we believed we had between 3-5 years left on a potential SC winning roster, which was the majority of those contracts.

2. Schwartz has never been a particularly gifted offensive player - most of his points come from hard work. He hasn't scored over 25 goals or over 60 points since 2014-2015 - yes, he's been on pace to score higher, but he's never able to stay healthy enough to break those milestones - this might be an unpopular opinion, but I believe that health is a skill, just like any other. Freak accidents can happen and bodies can break down at any point, but some guys like Schenn and ROR (And while he was here AP) seem to just keep on trucking, but guys like Schwartz just can't seem to stay in the lineup for a full season. 25 goals and 60 points are what he -should- put up in any given season, but he simply hasn't. He's also been sneaky bad on the PP - over the last five years he's been given the fourth highest PP TOI per-game (2:40 per) among forwards, yet he's scored a grand total of 47 points - for comparison, Schenn, who's averaged about the same PP TOI a game since coming to STL four years ago has put up 58 points. Again, that's 11 more points with an entire less year of service, while averaging about the same amount of time on ice.

3. The options behind Schwarz for top 6 LW on our roster are problematic at best and ugly at worst. Perron could shift over to LW, but he's been so effective where he is, do you really want to mess with that? Who's up after that? Hoffman? UFA and probably not returning. Blais? Decent physicality, makes a nice play here and there, but def not a guy you want in the top 6 for an entire season. Sanford? I mean.....yea. Moving on. Schenn is about it, but then we have a massive hole in our top 6 center spot - Thomas isn't ready and Bozak is 34. Maybe we can get a magic run out of him this year, but betting that at age 35 he can handle top 6 center minutes for a full 82 game season plus playoffs is not a sustainable idea and even that is under the assumption we can bring him back on a contract that makes sense.

4. The market for top 6 LW who are prime aged (Let's say 27-31) include some interesting options, but will all probably cost more then Schwartz will (Schwartz will be 29 when his next contract kicks in) or aren't as good as Schwartz. Taylor Hall and Zach Hyman will be 30, RNH, Landeskog, and Saad will all be 29, Tatar and Palmieri will be 31. How many of those guys are even an upgrade to Schwartz? Landeskog and RNH are, but Saad is a slight downgrade and I'm not interested in Tatar and Palmieri. Hyman is playing next to two world class offensive players, I'd bet the farm he doesn't come close to those sort of gaudy offensive numbers without Matthews/Nylander. Hall is still suuuuper interesting, he's looked AMAZING since he got traded to an actual NHL team, but man he's got a big body of work that says he sucks too. Schwartz you know what you're getting at least.

Schwartz's value to the Blues is tied almost entirely to how we view ourselves over the next two years. Does Army think this is a Cup contending team? I'd like to hope so, otherwise he should have moved Schwartz at the deadline for futures. If we are considering ourselves Cup contenders, it really doesn't matter the "comps" out there, b/c Schwartz's intrinsic value to this team is simply too high to let him go over the difference of 500k to 1m AAV. Schwartz might not have done himself any favors this season with his production, but he's in a really good position to negotiate based off positional scarcity and our desire to win.

I'd love Zach Hyman if an agreement with Schwartz cannot be reached. He should be a cheaper, similarly-effective option. Guy has a motor and would fit right in. $5M x 5yrs might be enough to get Hyman if it doesn't buy you Schwartz.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

As I recall, he was a healthy scratch during that run. There were some issues.

He had 8 assists during the playoffs and including 1 in game 1 of the finals, but he was a healthy scratch for game 4 cuz gallant wasn't happy that he wasn't shooting the puck and only had 1 shot on goal in the first 3 games and was terrible in game 3.

He was back in the lineup game 5 and scored a goal.

 

[The Note]

I'd love Zach Hyman if an agreement with Schwartz cannot be reached. He should be a cheaper, similarly-effective option. Guy has a motor and would fit right in. $5M x 5yrs might be enough to get Hyman if it doesn't buy you Schwartz.

I wouldn't mind Hyman and think he could be a good option. Having said that, I don't know that I have any desire to commit money+term to a guy who is also 28 and has really only produced while being with Matthews and Marner. It also seems unlikely that he won't be back with Toronto.

 

[Brian39]

I'd love Zach Hyman if an agreement with Schwartz cannot be reached. He should be a cheaper, similarly-effective option. Guy has a motor and would fit right in. $5M x 5yrs might be enough to get Hyman if it doesn't buy you Schwartz.

I would be super nervous about giving Hyman $25M over 5 years, because there is a very real chance that he is a product of line mates in Toronto. Injuries and this year being shortened hurt his raw totals, but you are talking about a guy whose career high is 41 points. He's played at a 61 point pace over the last 2 years, but he has played almost all of his minutes with either Marner, Matthews and Tavares (and usually 2 of them at once). In the last 2 seasons at 5 on5 , he has 812 minutes with Marner, 732 minutes with Matthews and 445 minutes with Tavares. His next most common line mate is 278 minutes with Mikheyev. In 2018/19 he played almost exclusively with Marner/Tavares (only 93 minutes away from Tavares) and had 41 points through 71 games.

From an offensive production standpoint, we don't have a forward on par with Marner or Matthews.

I don't disagree that $5x5 is probably the ballpark for Hyman, but I have doubts that he would be nearly as effective in Schwartz's role as he was in his role in Toronto. He plays the Blais/Sanford role in Toronto (and is way better at it than Blais/Sanford). Schwartz has generally been asked to either be the driver or the secondary driver of a line with Schenn and a rotating door of forwards. Asking Hyman to take on that role here is asking him to do something he's never done in his NHL career.

 

[Blueston]

Reported by whom? He missed time in round 3 with an injury, so even if he could technically suit up for games I don't know what could have fully recovered in that time.

His production was off but he also seemed to be hurt. Was never 100% clear that he was healthy scratch. Seemed more like rest until he was healthy enough to contribute but team didn’t really want to advertise he was hurting.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

He had 8 assists during the playoffs and including 1 in game 1 of the finals, but he was a healthy scratch for game 4 cuz gallant wasn't happy that he wasn't shooting the puck and only had 1 shot on goal in the first 3 games and was terrible in game 3.

He was back in the lineup game 5 and scored a goal.

You and I could score a goal like that. He fell into the net and the puck was shot and hit him. It’s not an indication of skilled play or Perron playing well.

One of the great things about the Blues’ run the next year was Perron getting a chance to vindicate himself. There’s no way to describe his playoffs with Vegas as being a high point of his career.

2:28 of this video

 

[Thallis]

Pierre Lebrun of the Athletic:



That is the head coach describing exactly why he was scratched. It was very clearly based on play and not an injury. I think that he had something nagging him, but his head coach very clearly took him out of the lineup because he didn't believe that he was playing well enough.

He played 5 games in between his missed games in round 3 and his scratch in the Cup Final. The scratch came over 2 weeks after his last missed game in round 3. Again, I think he was probably dinged up but there has been no suggestion that he was badly hurt.

Here is Perron's statement from the same article:



He clearly felt fine to play and there has never been a report of a serious injury that we often hear about after the playoffs end. A nagging injury may have been impacting him, but there is every indication that this was a healthy scratch and playing through injuries is the reality/expectation in the playoffs.

Thanks, this is about what I remembered. I just don't really consider this to be healthy, since it's the injury causing the performance to be bad enough that he needed to be scratched. Players will do a lot to play in the Stanley Cup final, so the threshold on how hurt they need to be voluntarily miss a game is a little skewed for them.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Thanks, this is about what I remembered. I just don't really consider this to be healthy, since it's the injury causing the performance to be bad enough that he needed to be scratched. Players will do a lot to play in the Stanley Cup final, so the threshold on how hurt they need to be voluntarily miss a game is a little skewed for them.

I don’t really care to argue this, but I think the underlying point is that neutral observers that were available to bid for Perron as a UFA didn’t count this playoff performance in his column. At best it was a question mark, and more likely a negative mark.

 

[Xerloris]

I don’t really care to argue this, but I think the underlying point is that neutral observers that were available to bid for Perron as a UFA didn’t count this playoff performance in his column. At best it was a question mark, and more likely a negative mark.

I do believe Perron said he turned down higher offers to come back to St.Louis and he took what we could offer cap wise. Makes no mistake, his contract is not because that's his worth but because he wanted to be in St.Louis more than getting paid.

 

[Thallis]

I don’t really care to argue this, but I think the underlying point is that neutral observers that were available to bid for Perron as a UFA didn’t count this playoff performance in his column. At best it was a question mark, and more likely a negative mark.

The year in its totality was an outlier for Perron compared to the rest of his career, so it's not surprising that GMs around the league were skeptical.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I do believe Perron said he turned down higher offers to come back to St.Louis and he took what we could offer cap wise. Makes no mistake, his contract is not because that's his worth but because he wanted to be in St.Louis more than getting paid.

Perron 100% took a home town discount, he loves St. Louis.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I do believe Perron said he turned down higher offers to come back to St.Louis and he took what we could offer cap wise. Makes no mistake, his contract is not because that's his worth but because he wanted to be in St.Louis more than getting paid.

He signed pretty quickly in the UFA period, as I recall. I don't think he even bothered to wait out the market, but took an offer that was acceptable to him in a place he knew he'd be happy. Personally, I think that is a smart way to make that decision, rather than fighting for an extra 1-2M when you're in a situation where those differences have minimal impact on the quality of your life.

 

[Oberyn]

Will likely be an unpopular opinion but if Schwartz gets to be out of our price range then I wouldn't mind looking into re-signing Hoffman at a 2 or 3 year deal. Great weapon on the PP and meshes pretty well with some of our more skilled players. His defensive ability is definitely lacking but I have noticed some good efforts from him in that area. Of course, Hoffman could also be out of our price range depending on how many suitors there are for him but just an option.

I agree with the above post that our left wing depth is severely lacking if we lose both Schwartz and Hoffman to FA. We are deep on RW with Perron, Tarasenko, and Kyrou so perhaps we could see Kyrou moved to the LW as he did play there briefly with ROR and Perron. It would also mean Schenn likely gets shifted to LW and Thomas takes the reigns of 2C which I would like to see.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

The year in its totality was an outlier for Perron compared to the rest of his career, so it's not surprising that GMs around the league were skeptical.

While still not as many points as with vegas, perron did have a 57 point year with Edmonton before he got injured and had a drop-off the next year.

Injuries and concussions may have been playing a role in preventing him from showing his true potential.

 

[Xerloris]

Will likely be an unpopular opinion but if Schwartz gets to be out of our price range then I wouldn't mind looking into re-signing Hoffman at a 2 or 3 year deal. Great weapon on the PP and meshes pretty well with some of our more skilled players. His defensive ability is definitely lacking but I have noticed some good efforts from him in that area. Of course, Hoffman could also be out of our price range depending on how many suitors there are for him but just an option.

I agree with the above post that our left wing depth is severely lacking if we lose both Schwartz and Hoffman to FA. We are deep on RW with Perron, Tarasenko, and Kyrou so perhaps we could see Kyrou moved to the LW as he did play there briefly with ROR and Perron. It would also mean Schenn likely gets shifted to LW and Thomas takes the reigns of 2C which I would like to see.

I would love to have Hoffman back.

 

[Brian39]

I'd have to imagine that the only way to re-sign Hoffman would be to drastically overpay on the AAV or give him a 4 year deal that takes him to retirement. He's been a consistent top 6 forward and top unit PP guy who was good for 25-30 goals and 60-70 points for the last 5 years. And now he is playing 15 minutes a night for a coach that very clearly hates his game and bent over backwards to keep him off the top unit. A 2-3 year deal with that type of usage is going to lead to him having very little market value when it expires. Have to think that the only way he takes such a gamble is if we pay him out the ass for those 2-3 years OR give him a 4th year to offer that financial security. And that is assuming he is even interested in continuing this lesser role to play for a team he views as a contender.

I'll be stunned if Hoffman is back next season and I really only see it happening if Berube is let go this summer (which would also surprise me a ton).

 

[DatDude44]

I'd love Zach Hyman if an agreement with Schwartz cannot be reached. He should be a cheaper, similarly-effective option. Guy has a motor and would fit right in. $5M x 5yrs might be enough to get Hyman if it doesn't buy you Schwartz.

That’s too much for Hyman imo, Atleast pre-Espn tv deal cap spike, but agreed we’d need that type of guy, tho possibly Kostin could fill that role and that money could be used for another legit top 4 LHD or a center to replace/upgrade on bozak

 

[Majorityof1]

I'd have to imagine that the only way to re-sign Hoffman would be to drastically overpay on the AAV or give him a 4 year deal that takes him to retirement. He's been a consistent top 6 forward and top unit PP guy who was good for 25-30 goals and 60-70 points for the last 5 years. And now he is playing 15 minutes a night for a coach that very clearly hates his game and bent over backwards to keep him off the top unit. A 2-3 year deal with that type of usage is going to lead to him having very little market value when it expires. Have to think that the only way he takes such a gamble is if we pay him out the ass for those 2-3 years OR give him a 4th year to offer that financial security. And that is assuming he is even interested in continuing this lesser role to play for a team he views as a contender.

I'll be stunned if Hoffman is back next season and I really only see it happening if Berube is let go this summer (which would also surprise me a ton).

I actually agree with this, but I am going to push back just a bit. There are other factors that could play into Hoffman's decision. First, IF Hoffman likes the locker room and feels wanted by management (even if not by Berube), that could play a big factor. Nobody had his back in Ottawa. The players and management rallied around Karlsson. That's got to be hard to take when he literally did nothing wrong. Scars like that can run deep. If he feels like the Blues players and Armstrong have his back, that may be worth more than money or even playing time.

As for Berube, there is still time for them to come to an understanding before the season is over. There have been lots on one-dimensional scorers who have butted-heads with a defensive coach only to later feel the coach made them a better player. Berube is now starting to put him into a position to succeed. If Hoff feels he is clicking with Robby and 'Rou, he may feel that line is one that could stick together for awhile.

Finally, he waited too long in free agency last time and it hurt him. Blues have first bite at the apple. If they give him a good offer up front, he may not want to wait around and maybe miss out again. Again, I doubt he signs. Playing devil's advocate though, there are a couple potential reasons he might re-sign.

 

[Celtic Note]

Hoffman has seemingly turned a corner. Berube seems to be showing more faith in him. At least he is saying so publicly in his interviews.

 

[simon IC]

I'm not thrilled with the idea of re-signing Hoffman, but I wouldn't be surprised by it. It would be consistent with the direction Armstrong seems to be taking.

 

[BlueMed]

Will likely be an unpopular opinion but if Schwartz gets to be out of our price range then I wouldn't mind looking into re-signing Hoffman at a 2 or 3 year deal. Great weapon on the PP and meshes pretty well with some of our more skilled players. His defensive ability is definitely lacking but I have noticed some good efforts from him in that area. Of course, Hoffman could also be out of our price range depending on how many suitors there are for him but just an option.

I agree with the above post that our left wing depth is severely lacking if we lose both Schwartz and Hoffman to FA. We are deep on RW with Perron, Tarasenko, and Kyrou so perhaps we could see Kyrou moved to the LW as he did play there briefly with ROR and Perron. It would also mean Schenn likely gets shifted to LW and Thomas takes the reigns of 2C which I would like to see.

Schenn and Perron could fill those LW holes and Tarasenko and Kyrou could take the RW spots.

 

[BlueMed]

Hoffman has seemingly turned a corner. Berube seems to be showing more faith in him. At least he is saying so publicly in his interviews.

His 5 on 5 play has skyrocketed since being put with like-minded players in Thomas and Kyrou.

 

[Brian39]

Hoffman has seemingly turned a corner. Berube seems to be showing more faith in him. At least he is saying so publicly in his interviews.

That faith isn't translating to ice time beyond putting him on the top PP unit. He's been under 14 minutes in 5 of our last 7 games. Under 11 minutes as many times as he's been over 14.

I could see Hoffman embracing that role if we ensure that he doesn't have to worry about signing another contract at 34 or 35. But that's pretty limited usage for being on a coach's good side.

Edit: as a Blues fan, I'm happy with this limited usage so long as he's on the top PP unit. I'm speaking purely from the player perspective and it's rare that 30 goal guys are happy playing less than 15 minutes a night long term.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

That faith isn't translating to ice time beyond putting him on the top PP unit. He's been under 14 minutes in 5 of our last 7 games. Under 11 minutes as many times as he's been over 14.

I could see Hoffman embracing that role if we ensure that he doesn't have to worry about signing another contract at 34 or 35. But that's pretty limited usage for being on a coach's good side.

Edit: as a Blues fan, I'm happy with this limited usage so long as he's on the top PP unit. I'm speaking purely from the player perspective and it's rare that 30 goal guys are happy playing less than 15 minutes a night long term.

As another poster pointed out, I feel like locker room presence and community may be a bigger deal to Hoffman than most players. After the crap his fiancee now wife was accused of and the locker room in ottowa not taking his side, he probably values being somewhere he and his wife feel comfortable.

Whether he feels that in st louis is anyone's guess but I'm sure that may play a part.

 

[Brian39]

As another poster pointed out, I feel like locker room presence and community may be a bigger deal to Hoffman than most players. After the crap his fiancee now wife was accused of and the locker room in ottowa not taking his side, he probably values being somewhere he and his wife feel comfortable.

Whether he feels that in st louis is anyone's guess but I'm sure that may play a part.

I can't see him leaving money/term on the table for those factors without assurances that he won't be moved. Which our organization doesn't do.