Value of: Jacob Trouba to DET

[Hunter368]

Agreed

 

[Whileee]

Well minutes aside, Larsson faced the toughest competition on his team, Trouba was 4th. Of guys who played significant time this year Larsson faced about the 15th hardest competition in the league, Trouba about 65th. Trouba got fairly balanced starts, slightly favoring offensive starts, Larsson got literally the worst starts in the league. I would certainly hope Trouba had better shot metrics. It's also not like we are talking Trouba's offensive upside is Burns level. He might be a consistent 30 point guy, but given the same easy starts I don't doubt Larsson could be equal.

Also Trouba statistically digressed in 15-16 while Larsson at worst maintained.

I think Larsson is getting seriously **** on because of the Hall trade. He's by far the better player and I doubt that extra year is going to make Trouba the better player.

Quality of teammates is much more influential on performance than quality of opposition. Trouba played with the worst defense partner in the NHL, all things considered, and still had positive shot metrics. When he played on LD with Byfuglien, they greatly out performed their opposition.

 

[solo16]

Trouba is better than Larsson numbers wise.

http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

I don't think the Wings have what the Jets are looking for. Trouba is already a #2 defenseman. Assuming contract talks reach an impasse and the Jets are forced to trade him, I think he only ends up in Detroit if it is part of a 3-way deal that includes a D-man.

I could possibly see a deal in which the Jets trade for a lesser d-man than Trouba if:

1. the D-man is at least a proven top-4 D-men with at least 3 years left on his contract (obviously not a top-2 d-man like Trouba).
2. the Jets get a first round pick and/or a blue-chip prospect preferably also a D-man.

Reason being, is that a D-man the Jets would pick up in the trade will have already topped out as no more than #3 or #4 with no more room to grow whereas Trouba again has shown his ability to play on the top line and has plenty of room to grow. He has a very good chance to be an elite #2 D-man in the league or a reasonable chance of becoming a #1 d-man.

The gap between Trouba and this hypothetical #4 defenseman would have to be compensated in the form of a blue chipper and/or a #1 draft pick - if the Jets feel the pick would have a very good shot of being in the 10-15 range that may be enough, but if the team ultimately trading for Trouba is a Stanley Cup contender drafting in the bottom-10 a blue chipper may be required to solidify the deal.

Jonathan Ericson come on down. 3 or 4 at 4.5m. Can penalty kill is 6'4 and is a solid yet not awesome number 4.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

Quality of teammates is much more influential on performance than quality of opposition. Trouba played with the worst defense partner in the NHL, all things considered, and still had positive shot metrics. When he played on LD with Byfuglien, they greatly out performed their opposition.

We'll I wouldn't say that's completely true, but Chevy went out and got Brian Strait just to make sure the statement is true for future occurrences.

 

[Henkka]

Trouba is better than Larsson numbers wise.

http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

I don't think the Wings have what the Jets are looking for. Trouba is already a #2 defenseman. Assuming contract talks reach an impasse and the Jets are forced to trade him, I think he only ends up in Detroit if it is part of a 3-way deal that includes a D-man.

I could possibly see a deal in which the Jets trade for a lesser d-man than Trouba if:

1. the D-man is at least a proven top-4 D-men with at least 3 years left on his contract (obviously not a top-2 d-man like Trouba).
2. the Jets get a first round pick and/or a blue-chip prospect preferably also a D-man.

Reason being, is that a D-man the Jets would pick up in the trade will have already topped out as no more than #3 or #4 with no more room to grow whereas Trouba again has shown his ability to play on the top line and has plenty of room to grow. He has a very good chance to be an elite #2 D-man in the league or a reasonable chance of becoming a #1 d-man.

The gap between Trouba and this hypothetical #4 defenseman would have to be compensated in the form of a blue chipper and/or a #1 draft pick - if the Jets feel the pick would have a very good shot of being in the 10-15 range that may be enough, but if the team ultimately trading for Trouba is a Stanley Cup contender drafting in the bottom-10 a blue chipper may be required to solidify the deal.

So if Detroit lands Fowler from Anaheim, it's possible send him to Winnipeg for Trouba?

Just make the value fit.

 

[Stephen]

Wings fan here. Is there anything other than Larkin that Winnipeg fans would want? Could Tatar be the starter for a deal? What's his value? Would love to have him in DET.

Do you have a Taylor Hall to spare?

 

[lomiller1]

Larsson played against the other teams top line every night, first pair. Trouba did not. I question whether Trouba is even a #1 at all when it is said and done. That is far from a sure thing.

Goalpost shift noted. you claimed the numbers favored Larrson, not that there was an excuse for Trouba having better numbers. With that dealt with, differences in QoC for any NHL player is marginal to begin with and Trouba did in fact face first pairing QoC.

Care to try again?

 

[lomiller1]

Larsson averaged 22:30 a night last season, Trouba averaged 22:03. Trouba put up more points and had much better shot metrics. Trouba played with a far worse partner (Mark Staurt vs Andy Greene)

Greene is pretty bad, I'd say Stuart is slightly worse, but not by much. Larrson narrows the gap considerably on zone start adjusted metrics. Trouba did spend a lot of time with some pretty bad forwards, but the Devils have nothing but bad forwards.

Overall I'd give Larrson a slight edge, but he's a lot better than many give him credit for. Trouba is younger and has a lot more upside and is a easily a top paring D on any team without an elite RHD.

 

[JetsHomer]

Greene is pretty bad, I'd say Stuart is slightly worse, but not by much. Larrson narrows the gap considerably on zone start adjusted metrics. Trouba did spend a lot of time with some pretty bad forwards, but the Devils have nothing but bad forwards.

Overall I'd give Larrson a slight edge, but he's a lot better than many give him credit for. Trouba is younger and has a lot more upside and is a easily a top paring D on any team without an elite RHD.

I wouldn't tell Devils fans that, they insist that Greene is a top pairing defenseman

 

[Maukkis]

Greene is pretty bad, I'd say Stuart is slightly worse, but not by much. Larrson narrows the gap considerably on zone start adjusted metrics. Trouba did spend a lot of time with some pretty bad forwards, but the Devils have nothing but bad forwards.

Overall I'd give Larrson a slight edge, but he's a lot better than many give him credit for. Trouba is younger and has a lot more upside and is a easily a top paring D on any team without an elite RHD.

Did you think of Matt Greene? Andy is better by an absolute long shot.

 

[Whileee]

So if Detroit lands Fowler from Anaheim, it's possible send him to Winnipeg for Trouba?

Just make the value fit.

I like Trouba a lot more than Fowler, even playing his offside at LD.

 

[lomiller1]

Did you think of Matt Greene? Andy is better by an absolute long shot.

Pairing with him drags down Larsson's numbers a lot. Not quite as much as Stuart does to Trouba but still a lot.

Last year CF%
NJ 46.2%
Greene w Larsson 43.9%
Greene wo Larsson 41.6%
Larrson wo Greene 48.5%

Jets 51.4%
Trouba w Stuart 48.2%
Stuart wo Trouba 44.3%
Trouba wo Stuart 54.3%

Similar patterns overall, again more pronounces with Stuart and there is more lateral movement with Greene, but not many Devils do better when they are on the ice with him than they are without.

http://hockeyviz.com/img/player/wowy/1516/WPG/wowy-1516-WPG-stuarma84-shots.png

http://hockeyviz.com/img/player/wowy/1516/N.J/wowy-1516-N.J-greenan82-shots.png

 

[PureDust]

If I was Winnipeg I'd trade trouba for a decent return on needs then turn right around and give him an offer sheet. Don't know if legal or plausible but I would love to watch the world burn

 

[Evil Little]

If I was Winnipeg I'd trade trouba for a decent return on needs then turn right around and give him an offer sheet. Don't know if legal or plausible but I would love to watch the world burn

I don't know what it is, kid, but you got it.

*chomps on cigar, Sam Fuller-style*

 

[pgk]

If I was Winnipeg I'd trade trouba for a decent return on needs then turn right around and give him an offer sheet. Don't know if legal or plausible but I would love to watch the world burn

This might be the most evil idea ever posted on HF

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

If I was Winnipeg I'd trade trouba for a decent return on needs then turn right around and give him an offer sheet. Don't know if legal or plausible but I would love to watch the world burn

When does the offer sheet window close?

This is absolutely ruthless, GM-of-the-year material. The lynch mob convoy from Detroit to Winnipeg would be enormous

 

[FireBird71]

If I was Winnipeg I'd trade trouba for a decent return on needs then turn right around and give him an offer sheet. Don't know if legal or plausible but I would love to watch the world burn

No GM in the league would make the trade without Trouba signed

 

[larmex99]

No GM in the league would make the trade without Trouba signed

Unless they know that they are his preferred destination and he is looking for a salary range that works for them. It wouldn't be the 1st time that happened.

 

[Crocket]

If I was Winnipeg I'd trade trouba for a decent return on needs then turn right around and give him an offer sheet. Don't know if legal or plausible but I would love to watch the world burn

So you would trade for only RFA value, then give up a boat load of 1st picks to overpay for a player you already have rights to? Very interesting strategy.

 

[Crocket]

When does the offer sheet window close?

This is absolutely ruthless, GM-of-the-year material. The lynch mob convoy from Detroit to Winnipeg would be enormous

It would be super dumb and you would be fired immediately if you were Wpg GM and maybe GM of the year for Detroit.

 

[Crocket]

Trouba is signing with the Jets, these debates get dumb quick.

 

[Maukkis]

So you would trade for only RFA value, then give up a boat load of 1st picks to overpay for a player you already have rights to? Very interesting strategy.

Agreed. It would be playing with fire, which GMs don't do. They care about their jobs more than the entertainment value of their decisions.