Confirmed with Link: Jacob Trouba arbitration award (1 year, 5.5 AAV)

[ecolad]

Correct. To be precise, he demanded a trade coming out of his ELC, refused to even negotiate a contract for months, and finally caved and signed a contract shortly before the deadline after which he would have been forced to spend a year out of the NHL.

I love what Trouba brings as a player and want him on the Jets, but I don't have any illusions about Trouba's perspective about playing in Winnipeg. It's been fraught with conflict and challenges, and I don't see any chance of a long term career in Winnipeg.

As usual Whileee, you`ve captured the situation succinctly and correctly. And this has been clearly hanging over Chevy`s head like Damocle`s Sword since the expiration of his ELC. I can fully understand Chevy`s reluctance to accept the outcome that is playing out, and to a lesser degree his conviction that he could somehow persuade Trouba to sign as a long term asset. This was after all his "plan" and he was determined to give it every chance. but I question whether he made the right decision in allowing things to stagnate to the point of actually triggering Arbitration .It is almost inconceivable that he would not have appreciated how much the triggering of the Arbitration would alter the dynamics of any further discussions, both with Trouba`s camp and of course with any other potential trade partners. He must have fully understood how the expected return for Trouba would plummet ( barring a low probability situation where one of the potential suitors had a real need for Trouba due to injury or some other development within their own org). I cannot help but feel that a more seasoned GM would have forced Trouba`s camp to show it`s cards by imposing a "decision deadline" well in advance of the Arbitration itself, and then, acting accordingly. But it is just my opinion of course.

 

[puck stoppa]

As usual Whileee, you`ve captured the situation succinctly and correctly. And this has been clearly hanging over Chevy`s head like Damocle`s Sword since the expiration of his ELC. I can fully understand Chevy`s reluctance to accept the outcome that is playing out, and to a lesser degree his conviction that he could somehow persuade Trouba to sign as a long term asset. This was after all his "plan" and he was determined to give it every chance. but I question whether he made the right decision in allowing things to stagnate to the point of actually triggering Arbitration .It is almost inconceivable that he would not have appreciated how much the triggering of the Arbitration would alter the dynamics of any further discussions, both with Trouba`s camp and of course with any other potential trade partners. He must have fully understood how the expected return for Trouba would plummet ( barring a low probability situation where one of the potential suitors had a real need for Trouba due to injury or some other development within their own org). I cannot help but feel that a more seasoned GM would have forced Trouba`s camp to show it`s cards by imposing a "decision deadline" well in advance of the Arbitration itself, and then, acting accordingly. But it is just my opinion of course.

Maybe Chevy wants him on the roster this year for a cup run? Because the return made us worse this year? And maybe Chevy is happy with the one year as it's less money this year and he can keep roster in tact and give them one last chance at a cup before change comes?
As I said before, roster will look very different next year with Niku and Vesalainen becoming regulars plus the additions of players from a Trouba trade and maybe even a Perreault trade.
So who knows? Maybe arbitration was preferred by both? Cause it keeps us under cap and roster in tact. And gives a Trouba a show me year.
So many ways to look at this.

 

[surixon]

As usual Whileee, you`ve captured the situation succinctly and correctly. And this has been clearly hanging over Chevy`s head like Damocle`s Sword since the expiration of his ELC. I can fully understand Chevy`s reluctance to accept the outcome that is playing out, and to a lesser degree his conviction that he could somehow persuade Trouba to sign as a long term asset. This was after all his "plan" and he was determined to give it every chance. but I question whether he made the right decision in allowing things to stagnate to the point of actually triggering Arbitration .It is almost inconceivable that he would not have appreciated how much the triggering of the Arbitration would alter the dynamics of any further discussions, both with Trouba`s camp and of course with any other potential trade partners. He must have fully understood how the expected return for Trouba would plummet ( barring a low probability situation where one of the potential suitors had a real need for Trouba due to injury or some other development within their own org). I cannot help but feel that a more seasoned GM would have forced Trouba`s camp to show it`s cards by imposing a "decision deadline" well in advance of the Arbitration itself, and then, acting accordingly. But it is just my opinion of course.

Its possible that he went through with arbitration to send a message that the team wont be pushed around by players and their agents. Its also possible a deal hasn't come accross Chevy's desk that he has liked enough to move Trouba. He is in a bit of tough spot due to the teams spot in its arc. I am very curious on how this plays out.

 

[Whileee]

Maybe Chevy wants him on the roster this year for a cup run? Because the return made us worse this year? And maybe Chevy is happy with the one year as it's less money this year and he can keep roster in tact and give them one last chance at a cup before change comes?
As I said before, roster will look very different next year with Niku and Vesalainen becoming regulars plus the additions of players from a Trouba trade and maybe even a Perreault trade.
So who knows? Maybe arbitration was preferred by both? Cause it keeps us under cap and roster in tact. And gives a Trouba a show me year.
So many ways to look at this.

I think it's very possible that Chevy would like to keep Trouba for another run this year. It might reduce his trade value a bit, but it also gives the Jets the best roster for this season. If Trouba has a big year, including a big role in a playoff run, it might even enhance his trade value, even with a year less control.

 

[DRW204]

I have a feeling Trouba's camp was pushing for a trade internally. No deals came across Chevy's desk that was a clear win for the Jets so he figured to keep him. Maybe KO thought Arb would land them a better 1 year deal than an RFA deal, although arb seems very daunting on both parties

 

[ffh]

chevy was never going to trade myers like so many predicted here because trouba was never signed long term and he wont trade trouba now for the same reason.

 

[KingBogo]

Correct. To be precise, he demanded a trade coming out of his ELC, refused to even negotiate a contract for months, and finally caved and signed a contract shortly before the deadline after which he would have been forced to spend a year out of the NHL.

I love what Trouba brings as a player and want him on the Jets, but I don't have any illusions about Trouba's perspective about playing in Winnipeg. It's been fraught with conflict and challenges, and I don't see any chance of a long term career in Winnipeg.

Agreed. Again while I understand the idea of using Trouba to help a cup run this season, I'd trade him now while he has the most value. At this point we could get approximate value back and I don't think it needs to be a set back. A young #2 center and a good RHD prospect might have us in a better position competitively and within the cap in a couple years.

 

[puck stoppa]

Agreed. Again while I understand the idea of using Trouba to help a cup run this season, I'd trade him now while he has the most value. At this point we could get approximate value back and I don't think it needs to be a set back. A young #2 center and a good RHD prospect might have us in a better position competitively and within the cap in a couple years.

That's what makes the timing of this so tricky. Balancing win now mode vs getting better future return. Only Chevy knows as he's getting the offers.

 

[KingBogo]

That's what makes the timing of this so tricky. Balancing win now mode vs getting better future return. Only Chevy knows as he's getting the offers.

Yup. I also don't buy into this may be the Jets best chance at a cup year narrative. The only 2 young core players close to their primes are Scheifele and Helly, and I don't think either is there yet. Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Rosie and Morrissey are still far off the players they will eventually become. I think you can legitimately throw Vaselainen and Niku into that group. Then add in the young player/players we get in a Trouba deal. IMO 3 years when this group is all in the 23-28 y/o range is when we will be most dangerous. The key will be a graceful transition from the last few older core guys to free up cap space.

 

[puck stoppa]

Yup. I also don't buy into this may be the Jets best chance at a cup year narrative. The only 2 young core players close to their primes are Scheifele and Helly, and I don't think either is there yet. Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Rosie and Morrissey are still far off the players they will eventually become. I think you can legitimately throw Vaselainen and Niku into that group. Then add in the young player/players we get in a Trouba deal. IMO 3 years when this group is all in the 23-28 y/o range is when we will be most dangerous. The key will be a graceful transition from the last few older core guys to free up cap space.

I see this year as a great chance and then reaload and the period you mention as well.
We should be in playoffs for a while tho.

 

[ecolad]

I think it's very possible that Chevy would like to keep Trouba for another run this year. It might reduce his trade value a bit, but it also gives the Jets the best roster for this season. If Trouba has a big year, including a big role in a playoff run, it might even enhance his trade value, even with a year less control.

There is absolutely no question that, having already gone through Arbitration, Chevy will now pursue a course of extracting maximum utilization value from Trouba and then trade him for any residual value at the appropriate time. I do however have difficulty with the manner in which you characterize his trade value. In my view, his trade value has dropped markedly already - simply because all teams know with near certainty that he will not extend with the Jets. Put that together with Trouba`s ability to have major influence on the trade discussions by also limiting willingness to extend to only a very few favored teams, and you have an extremely difficult situation for Chevy to get value. I suggest most if not all suitors will be looking at him as a "rental"- with the only variable being the timeframe ( in this case 2year rental; 1year rental; or even typical 3 month rental). And those few teams that are on his possible extension list will probably not put top value on the negotiating table given they can simply outwait Chevy if necessary and get Trouba for nothing as a UFA.

 

[Whileee]

There is absolutely no question that, having already gone through Arbitration, Chevy will now pursue a course of extracting maximum utilization value from Trouba and then trade him for any residual value at the appropriate time. I do however have difficulty with the manner in which you characterize his trade value. In my view, his trade value has dropped markedly already - simply because all teams know with near certainty that he will not extend with the Jets. Put that together with Trouba`s ability to have major influence on the trade discussions by also limiting willingness to extend to only a very few favored teams, and you have an extremely difficult situation for Chevy to get value. I suggest most if not all suitors will be looking at him as a "rental"- with the only variable being the timeframe ( in this case 2year rental; 1year rental; or even typical 3 month rental). And those few teams that are on his possible extension list will probably not put top value on the negotiating table given they can simply outwait Chevy if necessary and get Trouba for nothing as a UFA.

I agree his trade value has dropped in the past couple of years, and it will probably drop somewhat after this season. But if he has a really big season for a top team, I don't think his value will drop significantly, and having him contribute to a couple of deep playoff runs has substantial value. As an analogy, many were supportive of trading a 1st and good prospect for a few months of Stastny. In that context, how much is two seasons and playoffs of Trouba worth?

 

[puck stoppa]

I agree his trade value has dropped in the past couple of years, and it will probably drop somewhat after this season. But if he has a really big season for a top team, I don't think his value will drop significantly, and having him contribute to a couple of deep playoff runs has substantial value. As an analogy, many were supportive of trading a 1st and good prospect for a few months of Stastny. In that context, how much is two seasons and playoffs of Trouba worth?

That's why our rentals this year are Trouba, Myers and Perreault. I have a feeling Chevy will just keep team in tact, Roslo is Stastny next playoff and away we go. Give the crew a chance within, with not much added at deadline.

 

[ffh]

I agree his trade value has dropped in the past couple of years, and it will probably drop somewhat after this season. But if he has a really big season for a top team, I don't think his value will drop significantly, and having him contribute to a couple of deep playoff runs has substantial value. As an analogy, many were supportive of trading a 1st and good prospect for a few months of Stastny. In that context, how much is two seasons and playoffs of Trouba worth?

That was a 1st they knew would be around pick 27 and a B prospect.

 

[ecolad]

I agree his trade value has dropped in the past couple of years, and it will probably drop somewhat after this season. But if he has a really big season for a top team, I don't think his value will drop significantly, and having him contribute to a couple of deep playoff runs has substantial value. As an analogy, many were supportive of trading a 1st and good prospect for a few months of Stastny. In that context, how much is two seasons and playoffs of Trouba worth?

Yes of course the bolded is absolutely true. However, in such case, the trade value is exactly zero, for there won`t even be the typical last 3 month rental opportunity. Are we satisfied that the "substantial value" warrants letting Trouba walk as UFA for nothing?
Your suggested analogy does not take into account the fundamental difference in situation between Trouba and Stastny. We offered to buy with the possibility of negotiating an extension with Stastny( and apparently were considering same seriously); buyers of Trouba will know with absolute certainty that there is no possibility of a negotiated extension.

 

[Saintb]

if he walks after two years the jets have six million dollars they will sorely need for other players. I don't see that as all bad. in addition it sends a message to other agents who are no doubt watching this closely. don't mess with the Jets.

 

[Bob E]

Chevy’s only hope in getting solid value in a Trouba trade is creating some sort of bidding war. Who wants a young top pairing RH dman? Get him for two years, and he might stay with your franchise.

Don’t see a deal to team in Central. You can likely cross off Canadian teams as well. Focus likely would be on Eastern Conference teams. Carolina, New York/Jersey teams, Philadelphia all have some interesting young prospects or high value future draft picks.

Chevy will need to set his sights on a couple of teams and work some magic.

 

[KingBogo]

Chevy’s only hope in getting solid value in a Trouba trade is creating some sort of bidding war. Who wants a young top pairing RH dman? Get him for two years, and he might stay with your franchise.

Don’t see a deal to team in Central. You can likely cross off Canadian teams as well. Focus likely would be on Eastern Conference teams. Carolina, New York/Jersey teams, Philadelphia all have some interesting young prospects or high value future draft picks.

Chevy will need to set his sights on a couple of teams and work some magic.

This is what I'm thinking as well. I don't think Trouba's sights are set as narrowly as many believe. He might very well re-sign with any big market US team he lands in if he likes the situation. You have the 2 Florida teams, but you could also throw in teams like Detroit, NYR, Chicago, Philly, Boston, LA, LV, Pittsburgh and Washington. Maybe they are not all good fits but these are teams use to signing the players they want and would be willing to give close to equal value back for Trouba, especially at a nice cap hit this season.

I just don't believe we need to sacrifice the future going for it now. We have this powerhouse young core that are just starting to reach their primes. IMO we can compete now and still set ourselves up to peak in 3-5 teams and keep the window open as long as possible. I just don't buy the idea of blowing our load now with a 20 y/o Laine barely scratching the surface. Are we then going to rebuild with Scheifele, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Rosie, Niku and Morrissey in their mid 20's? I say if Trouba doesn't want to be here move him focusing on almost ready top prospects. Biggest need center and RHD. Get true replacements that will be still cheap to support your young core as they are tearing through the league.

 

[ecolad]

This is what I'm thinking as well. I don't think Trouba's sights are set as narrowly as many believe. He might very well re-sign with any big market US team he lands in if he likes the situation. You have the 2 Florida teams, but you could also throw in teams like Detroit, NYR, Chicago, Philly, Boston, LA, LV, Pittsburgh and Washington. Maybe they are not all good fits but these are teams use to signing the players they want and would be willing to give close to equal value back for Trouba, especially at a nice cap hit this season.

I just don't believe we need to sacrifice the future going for it now. We have this powerhouse young core that are just starting to reach their primes. IMO we can compete now and still set ourselves up to peak in 3-5 teams and keep the window open as long as possible. I just don't buy the idea of blowing our load now with a 20 y/o Laine barely scratching the surface. Are we then going to rebuild with Scheifele, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Rosie, Niku and Morrissey in their mid 20's? I say if Trouba doesn't want to be here move him focusing on almost ready top prospects. Biggest need center and RHD. Get true replacements that will be still cheap to support your young core as they are tearing through the league.

We seem to be very much aligned with the directional thinking going forward here KB. And perhaps how we go forward from our current position is the only worthwhile discussion, but imo Chevy should have viewed Trouba in this light and acted accordingly going back well before matters came to a head in Arbitration. We would not only have received a significantly better trade value (targetting the positions you mention), but would also have had a differing and potentially less severe challenge with cap compliance going into this season ( maybe less severe surgery required and no cap dump giveaways like Armia).
I wish that I could share your optimism about Trouba being more flexible in ongoing trade discussions, with a willingness to broaden the list of teams that he is prepared to re-sign with, but I don`t see it happening. Trouba is now in a position of maximum leverage and has little incentive to give it up.

 

[Board Bard]

if he walks after two years the jets have six million dollars they will sorely need for other players. I don't see that as all bad. in addition it sends a message to other agents who are no doubt watching this closely. don't mess with the Jets.

If he's traded you still get that money. Plus you get stuff. And whatever message you think you're sending (if there is such a thing) still gets sent.

If the Jets hold onto him for two years they MIGHT win a cup, though the odds will still be stacked against them as they are for every contender (old Montreal Canadiens excepted). If they trade him, they WILL get something usefull back, and they still MIGHT win a cup (although if Maurice is coaching I doubt it).

 

[GNP]

I completely disagree. I think his agent at the end of the day will take money out of his pocket. I don’t think that the lost money in the last couple of years plus what potentially is being left this year and next, will be recouped by Trouba. Therefore in my opinion his agent had failed.

_______________________________________________________

Well, you do make a good point Jet's nut--"especially" if Trouba incurs a career ending injury this upcoming season-- "his strategy" or his agents, will have totally backfired. Chances are he won't-- but I think their playing with fire-and taking on way to much risk, for the sake of trying to pocket a few million more.

 

[Trinity]

_______________________________________________________

Well, you do make a good point Jet's nut--"especially" if Trouba incurs a career ending injury this upcoming season-- "his strstegy" or his agents, will have totally backfired. Chances are he won't== but I think their playing with fire-and taking on way to much risk, for the sake of trying to pocket a few million more.

Trouba has already suffered 2 known concussions...possibly more in college. One more and his career could be over.

 

[cbcwpg]

If we assume the Jets offered say $6 million two years ago and again this past contract impasse... Trouba is already looking at ~$7 MM in lost salary over those past two seasons and the upcoming.

He is going to need a significant contract in the future to make that up, assuming that he does not get a serious injury. This is quite the gamble he's taking.

 

[ffh]

If we assume the Jets offered say $6 million two years ago and again this past contract impasse... Trouba is already looking at ~$7 MM in lost salary over those past two seasons and the upcoming.

He is going to need a significant contract in the future to make that up, assuming that he does not get a serious injury. This is quite the gamble he's taking.

I think we assume they offered 5 like everyone else of his peers got. And he wanted 6 or 6.5

 

[Maukkis]

If we assume the Jets offered say $6 million two years ago and again this past contract impasse... Trouba is already looking at ~$7 MM in lost salary over those past two seasons and the upcoming.

He is going to need a significant contract in the future to make that up, assuming that he does not get a serious injury. This is quite the gamble he's taking.

If the report of 5.5x6 being offered after his ELC ended, Trouba would have lost 2(5.5-3.0) = 5 million so far. He'll break even this year, but with his next QO being at 5.5, he won't lose out on anything next year and is primed for an early UFA exit. Then he can cash in, and he will likely make back most of that five million in 'years 5 and 6'. Even without taking taxes into account, the financial implications are really not as significant as people make them out to be.