Prospect Info: Jacob Olofsson

[WeThreeKings]

Another wasted pick. Like Ikonen.

Ikonen wasn't a wasted pick - he just got injured over and over again, there's no way to predict that happening.

Olofsson also wasn't a wasted pick, he was a damn near consensus first rounder who fell to the 2nd round. You're picking teenagers and sometimes it doesn't work out.

A wasted pick is something stupid like Ruscheinski where you are taking a guy who has 0 chance to ever do anything.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Another wasted pick. Like Ikonen.

Unfortunately, Ikonen was hit with major injury after major injury. His injuries weren't minor ones where he's out a few games or a few weeks. He was missing half the seasons or almost the entire year.

I wouldn't qualify him as a wasted pick because when he was selected in the 2nd round in 2017, no one knew he would be injured 90% of the time.

Same with Juulsen. If he didn't get the puck to the face twice in the same game, he would not be with the Panthers right now, he'd be on the Habs main roster. But it shows you how a major injury and set backs can derail everything. They couldn't have known when Juulsen was selected in 2015 that he'd face such injury adversity.



Also, in Olofsson's case, not every player is meant to be an offensive dynamo. There are aspects of Olofsson's game that still make him appealing. He's got size, he is a smooth skater, is good defensively, and isn't bad on the dot.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

I still have some faith in the guy, FWIW, mostly because his tools are still plain to see. He's 21 and he gets one more season to really take it to the next step as a pro in Sweden and show the Habs he's worth a contract. It's unlikely at this point but it's still doable.

 

[dcyhabs]

Even if you pick well half or so of later first round picks and two thirds of second round picks will not work out. Picking defensive forwards at low levels is generally not a great idea, but Olofsson's offense was debatable not completely missing.

 

[Miller Time]

I still have some faith in the guy, FWIW, mostly because his tools are still plain to see. He's 21 and he gets one more season to really take it to the next step as a pro in Sweden and show the Habs he's worth a contract. It's unlikely at this point but it's still doable.

I would agree...

it will be interesting to see what the prospect development for guys from the 2017-18-19 drafts look like over the next 3-5 years.

The COVID factor and how that disrupted 2 season's worth of training/playing will have some impact. In particular, I bet there will be more than a few cases of guys who, for maturity or other reasons, really got off track in their personal focus on training and development. That coupled with the reduction in games/practices will inevitably slow the progress of some more than others and while some won't recover, others may very well find their way back and make a later jump to NHL caliber players.

some teams will inevitably wind up with a late blooming gem that another team gives up on (which happens all the time, i'm just suggesting that the COVID situation may very well create a larger volume of those situations, especially for players from those draft years).

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I don't have a lot of hope left for Olofsson, but I hope he proves me wrong this year!!

 

[Adam Michaels]

I don't have a lot of hope left for Olofsson, but I hope he proves me wrong this year!!

Honestly question, hope for him to do what?

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Honestly question, hope for him to do what?

Be interesting

 

[Adam Michaels]

Be interesting

How though? What does he need to do to be more interesting? Score more points so those who only base their assessment of him on his production can like him?

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Honestly question, hope for him to do what?

You're asking me what I hope for Olofsson? Same as I hope for all Habs prospects - that they become NHL players.

Edit: which I have doubts that he will do, unfortunately.

 

[Adam Michaels]

You're asking me what I hope for Olofsson? Same as I hope for all Habs prospects - that they become NHL players.

Edit: which I have doubts that he will do, unfortunately.

He may never become an NHLer. But my curiosity is what you're basing your evaluation on.

 

[jaffy27]

Guhle, Caufield, Tuch, Mysak, Struble, Norlinder in others

 

[jaffy27]

He may never become an NHLer. But my curiosity is what you're basing your evaluation on.

My guess is production…..I could be wrong though

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

My guess is production…..I could be wrong though

It couldnt hurt, although he's always been a producer in the allsvenskan so it's not the biggest thing in my book. More consistency is the main thing for me, I want to see him be a top player in the league for the entire season.

 

[Adam Michaels]

My guess is production…..I could be wrong though

That's what I was trying to get at. If people are going to stat watch, they will be disappointed.

Olofsson's game is something people need to watch often to get more of an appreciation.

He's got things to improve on. But he will never be an offensive player. You always want to see the prospects contribute offensively. But not all players you draft are going to be about point production.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

He may never become an NHLer. But my curiosity is what you're basing your evaluation on.

Oh. I just read stuff and look at stats. Stats are pretty predictive if you read into those draft analytics folks. Usually even defensive NHLers have quite a lot of statistical success at lower levels. There are some exceptions, but not many. So lack of scoring success at lower levels predicts that Olofsson won't become an NHLer.

Why do you ask?

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

That's what I was trying to get at. If people are going to stat watch, they will be disappointed.

Olofsson's game is something people need to watch often to get more of an appreciation.

He's got things to improve on. But he will never be an offensive player. You always want to see the prospects contribute offensively. But not all players you draft are going to be about point production.

Yes but point production at lower levels predicts advancement to the NHL. Players who can't score at lower levels often are not good enough to advance to the next level.

There are some exceptions mind you. Players who play a checking style throughout, and make the NHL. But they are definitely not the norm.

The other big red flag for me in regards to Olofsson is that he hasn't been signed. That doesn't definitively mean that the Habs are not happy with his progress, but it definitely hints at that IMO.

 

[Heffyhoof]

That's what I was trying to get at. If people are going to stat watch, they will be disappointed.

Olofsson's game is something people need to watch often to get more of an appreciation.

He's got things to improve on. But he will never be an offensive player. You always want to see the prospects contribute offensively. But not all players you draft are going to be about point production.

I never knew much about Olofsson but the impression I had when Montreal picked him was a 3-4th line defensive minute munching center. Production or not I hope he's still trending that way.

 

[Maitz]

I remember being really happy with the pick. I even remember I was on the throne on saturday morning when I saw the pick on my phone. Maybe it was a sign

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

How though? What does he need to do to be more interesting? Score more points so those who only base their assessment of him on his production can like him?

If the prospect isn't putting up points, or really nice stats, I don't think people care.

Usually though, players succeed offensively elsewhere, then drop when they get to the NHL points wise to become fundamental better defensively.

However, people need to remember that SHL is closer to the NHL than the CHL is to the SHL

 

[WeThreeKings]

Olofsson and Hallander had some of the best PPG of draft eligible prospects in Allsvenskan.

The offense was there to make a projection, the problem is that it hasn't grown in Olofsson who flashed skill often but not consistently and that consistency hasn't been there as he's matured like you try to project.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Yes but point production at lower levels predicts advancement to the NHL. Players who can't score at lower levels often are not good enough to advance to the next level.

There are some exceptions mind you. Players who play a checking style throughout, and make the NHL. But they are definitely not the norm.

The other big red flag for me in regards to Olofsson is that he hasn't been signed. That doesn't definitively mean that the Habs are not happy with his progress, but it definitely hints at that IMO.

If the prospect isn't putting up points, or really nice stats, I don't think people care.

Usually though, players succeed offensively elsewhere, then drop when they get to the NHL points wise to become fundamental better defensively.

However, people need to remember that SHL is closer to the NHL than the CHL is to the SHL

Jacob Olofsson at eliteprospects.com


Production at lower levels:

Age 15 and 16:
Across the different levels: 56 pts (20G, 36A) in 46 GP

Age 16 and 17:
Acorss the different levels: 20 pts (8G, 12A) in 46 GP
*He was a 17 year old playing in Allsvenskan, the 2nd division in Sweden*

Age 17-18 (his draft year)
His first full season in Allsvenskan, puts up 20+ pts.

Age 18-21
His first foray into the SHL. Numbers not great. But as I said, he's not who you expect numbers from at the higher level. However, he was back to a steady production when he went back to Allsvenskan, where he was also injured and missed time.
*In Allsvenskan, Olofsson was 5th top scorer among players born in the year 2000, and the 4 ahead of him played between 49-52 games*

So as you can see, he produced at lower levels. His numbers may not jump out at you. But he did well enough offensively. But this is where a lot of fans' evaluation of certain prospects is flawed. They look at their stat line and base it off that. But few of them actually watched him consistently. You always want to see them put up points. But it's not the be all end all for every prospect in the system.

Habs may not sign him and let his rights expire next summer. But if they do, it won't be because he doesn't put up numbers. I highly doubt he was drafted for that in the first place.

 

[montreal]

I actually could see them signing him as a possible 4th liner down the road as he has NHL size, skating, speed, strength to go with a decent defensive game. So more of the Vejdemo, DLR mold.

in one of the draft ranking threads from the other day I talked about Vejdemo and how you have to compare him at his past ages not his current. If you look at him and Olofsson in their age 19, 20, seasons, they are very similar as Olofsson had a little better age 19 season and Vejdemo a little better age 20 season stats wise (though Olofsson had only 16 games in the SHL due to being demoted) so we'll see what this season brings now that he's back in the SHL again. Vejdemo came over at 22, Olofsson if signed would come over at 22, both have some interesting tools of NHL size, speed, skating, solid defensive play. Olofsson is bigger, haven't seen him yet this preseason but last year he looked like a bull on skates, he's a load for sure but much like DLR, he doesn't use his size well enough and he's not aggressive enough with that size. I don't have a lot of hope for him but injuries have been a big problem for him, I thought he would be lesser DLR, but maybe he can finally stay healthy this year, get a good bit of top 6 TOI (though I'm not sure as I need to see the roster) and hopefully find consistency that he's been lacking (much like Vejdemo as well)

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Jacob Olofsson at eliteprospects.com


Production at lower levels:

Age 15 and 16:
Across the different levels: 56 pts (20G, 36A) in 46 GP
View attachment 461904

Age 16 and 17:
Acorss the different levels: 20 pts (8G, 12A) in 46 GP
*He was a 17 year old playing in Allsvenskan, the 2nd division in Sweden*
View attachment 461907

Age 17-18 (his draft year)
His first full season in Allsvenskan, puts up 20+ pts.
View attachment 461906

Age 18-21
His first foray into the SHL. Numbers not great. But as I said, he's not who you expect numbers from at the higher level. However, he was back to a steady production when he went back to Allsvenskan, where he was also injured and missed time.
*In Allsvenskan, Olofsson was 5th top scorer among players born in the year 2000, and the 4 ahead of him played between 49-52 games*
View attachment 461908


So as you can see, he produced at lower levels. His numbers may not jump out at you. But he did well enough offensively. But this is where a lot of fans' evaluation of certain prospects is flawed. They look at their stat line and base it off that. But few of them actually watched him consistently. You always want to see them put up points. But it's not the be all end all for every prospect in the system.

Habs may not sign him and let his rights expire next summer. But if they do, it won't be because he doesn't put up numbers. I highly doubt he was drafted for that in the first place.

We'll have to agree to disagree if you think points aren't important when evaluating prospects, because points production is the most predictive stat for all players at lower levels except goalies (which is save percentage).

Hey I get what you are saying. Maybe he's different. Maybe he has a breakout point year this year. Maybe he's one of those very few players where points don't matter as much. But for the vast majority of players, points at lower levels is the most predictive stat, and that includes for players who go on to play defensive roles in the NHL.

Sure I haven't studied all his game tapes and I'm not a encyclopedia of Jacob Olofsson knowledge, but what I said is that I have lost hope in him but I hope he proves me wrong, and I think that is a 100% legitimate view to have about Olofsson and probably the guys who do watch tape on him feel the same way more or less.

 

[montreal]

2021 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: The Near Misses (30-26)

If you listen to the podcast they bring in some reporter that follows Timra and he talks about Olofsson from when he was 16 to now. It starts at 27 min mark or so, it's bleak but thought it was interesting