Jackets talk extension with Foligno

[MAHJ71]

Cam definitely has improved in that category over the scratching he took last year. However, his size is a limitation. I've always seen him as a comparable to Martin St. Louis as have many other people. I just don't think Martin St. Louis would be a great fit on this team either with the style of play they want to go for.

I do think Cam was pretty good last night in the effort category.

Lol, I definitely had the St. Louis comparison in my head - but without all the points. Maybe its just hope that he grows into that type of producer that has me in the Cam staying with CBJ camp.

 

[SuperGenius]

I agree, his forecheck and penalty kill, last night, were tenacious and effective. He also has a tendency to get under the skin of the opposition and is unafraid of anyone. He reminds me of a smaller, less stupid version of Dorsett or Torres. I also see the comparison to DMac.

Great description, Pete.

Funny how little some of these guys mean to some folks until they're gone. I think I'd be pretty wary of expecting Milano, Rychel or whoever to slot in and make us forget a guy like Calvert.

 

[DJA]

So is Jarmo gonna cost the team more money by not getting this deal done yet?

 

[thebus2288*]

The real question is if we can still get Eberle or Perron?!?!

 

[punk_o_holic]

I wonder when Horton decides if he is going to call it quits. If he retires, Jarmo may be willing to over pay for Foligno. But if Horton is unsure, maybe Jarmo is reluctant to give Foligno a big contact.

Should he just get the same contract as Dubinsky? $5.85 mil cap hit for 6 years. Or with the cap rising, he will ask for more?

 

[DJA]

I wonder when Horton decides if he is going to call it quits. If he retires, Jarmo may be willing to over pay for Foligno. But if Horton is unsure, maybe Jarmo is reluctant to give Foligno a big contact.

Should he just get the same contract as Dubinsky? $5.85 mil cap hit for 6 years. Or with the cap rising, he will ask for more?

I like that deal, but I'd almost consider it a "hometown discount" at this point. He could probably get over 6 on the open market.

 

[Socks]

I like that deal, but I'd almost consider it a "hometown discount" at this point. He could probably get over 6 on the open market.

With the year he's having I don't doubt you're right.

 

[punk_o_holic]

I like that deal, but I'd almost consider it a "hometown discount" at this point. He could probably get over 6 on the open market.

If he asked for a NMC to take the "hometown discount", would you be fine?

 

[Viqsi]

If he asked for a NMC to take the "hometown discount", would you be fine?

Yes. Absolutely. Next silly question?

 

[punk_o_holic]

Yes. Absolutely. Next silly question?

Might have been silly but it seems like some are some what picky when it comes to NTC/NMC.

 

[alphafox]

Gotta say I was in the camp that didn't believe Foligno had the talent to justify a top six role, but his play and his leadership have really developed over the course of his time here. Pay the man and lets move on to getting the rest of the lineup in order.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I wonder when Horton decides if he is going to call it quits. If he retires, Jarmo may be willing to over pay for Foligno. But if Horton is unsure, maybe Jarmo is reluctant to give Foligno a big contact.

Should he just get the same contract as Dubinsky? $5.85 mil cap hit for 6 years. Or with the cap rising, he will ask for more?

Horton is not going to retire. On a personal level that's just dumb to leave that guaranteed money on the table. He can go on on LTIR and have insurance pay most of the salary and not count against the cap but he would be crazy to retire and leave over 25 million on the table over the next 5 years.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

So is Jarmo gonna cost the team more money by not getting this deal done yet?

He could have locked him up earlier for less-so he already has cost the team $$. Now, it may be best to wait a bit. Foligno is scoring at a pace which is roughly double his career best in goals and points. For Team Foligno, they would probably be best served by striking while the iron is hot. I'd let the iron cool a bit (which it probably will) if I were in charge of negotiations for the CBJ if Foligno's agent is talking stupid numbers.

Jarmo's record on contract negotiations is pretty poor. I wouldn't be surprised if he signed Foligno at a premium while he's scoring at an unsustainable pace. He probably could have had him sub $4.5 million/year had he signed him before the season began.

 

[punk_o_holic]

Horton is not going to retire. On a personal level that's just dumb to leave that guaranteed money on the table. He can go on on LTIR and have insurance pay most of the salary and not count against the cap but he would be crazy to retire and leave over 25 million on the table over the next 5 years.

True, then I wonder if Horton has told Jarmo or if he ever plans on telling Jarmo, "Not going to retire but my playing career is done". This would allow Jarmo to move forward. Of course, this would never be announced but could be like the Pronger situation where it's quite obvious what they're doing.

 

[major major]

I think its already settled that Horton isn't coming back. No official retirement, but he's done.

 

[major major]

He could have locked him up earlier for less-so he already has cost the team $$. Now, it may be best to wait a bit. Foligno is scoring at a pace which is roughly double his career best in goals and points. For Team Foligno, they would probably be best served by striking while the iron is hot. I'd let the iron cool a bit (which it probably will) if I were in charge of negotiations for the CBJ if Foligno's agent is talking stupid numbers.

Jarmo's record on contract negotiations is pretty poor. I wouldn't be surprised if he signed Foligno at a premium while he's scoring at an unsustainable pace. He probably could have had him sub $4.5 million/year had he signed him before the season began.

Its a good bet that Foligno will see his shooting percentage come down quite a bit. But even at last year's percentage he could near 30 goals, and 40 assists should be very doable considering the amount of offense he generates, and probably playing a lot with Joey. Those sorts of numbers will see a huge payday, certainly over $6m.

Of course not knowing what Foligno's agent is asking, I can't say that letting it cool is good or bad. I do hope that Jarmo's offer starts with the number 5, and seriously think about 6.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Its a good bet that Foligno will see his shooting percentage come down quite a bit. But even at last year's percentage he could near 30 goals, and 40 assists should be very doable considering the amount of offense he generates, and probably playing a lot with Joey. Those sorts of numbers will see a huge payday, certainly over $6m.

Of course not knowing what Foligno's agent is asking, I can't say that letting it cool is good or bad. I do hope that Jarmo's offer starts with the number 5, and seriously think about 6.

I like Foligno a lot, but I'm not sold on him as a 30-40 guy.

If he continues to generate shots at his pace of the first 1/3rd of this season and shoots at last year's shooting percentage (for this entire season) of 16%, then he'll end up with 26 goals. If he shoots at his career rate of 12% for this entire season at the current shot pace, he'll get 20 goals. He'd have to go real cold to do that, so I'm expecting him to be in the 25-30 goal range this season, but given that he's never scored more than 18 goals in a season before this season, I'm quite hesitant to label him anything more than a 20-25 goal guy....and that's playing first line and getting first wave power play duty.

In five full NHL seasons, Foligno has never scored more than 47 points. While it is entirely possible that he's improved and benefits from his current usage, paying him $6 million a year for 5 or 6 years is a very risky proposition in my estimation. But, per usual, Jarmo dropped the ball on signing him at a reasonable price. Foligno's leverage today is much more than it was in July and I would highly doubt that Foligno would have had an issue with $4.5 million per year over 4 or 5 years in July. But, as we all know, Jarmo was focusing his energy on screwing Johansen this off season. LOL

Jarmo seems to excel at the contract discount rack on guys like Letestu and Atkinson. The big ticket items aren't his strong suit. I can see him signing Foligno to a Dubinski+ deal and I just don't think that he should get that type of money given what his normal rate of production has been. Paying a guy that type of money based on a third of a season with a shooting percentage of double his career average is not sound, imo.

 

[EspenK]

I pretty much agree with Cyclone's take on this. I don't think you can go nuts and sign him to a $6 million 6 year deal based on 27 games. He has as much chance of going Setoguchi or Cheechoo as he does of being a career 70 point guy. Probably somewhere in the middle is where he winds up and how he should be compensated.

I'd be inclined to trade more dollars for shorter term. Say 6 mill but for no more than 3 years. If he turns out to be a 60+ guy then pay him more when the deal is done. If he wants a 6 or 7 year deal now, I think 5-5.5 is fair considering his past performance and what appears to be an anomaly this year offset by what he can probably get in the UFA market.

The one thing I can't do is blame Jarmo for not re-signing him earlier. I'm sure he wasn't anticipating this kind of a performance and short of Major no one else did either.

 

[Dednimnepo]

The difference between Foligno this year and Foligno last year is maturity.* His style of game is kid-like heart, joy, love of the game, he's plays for/with fun. I believe the issues with his daughter have matured him mentally. He plays the same style he just is able to see the big picture, understand what is demanded of him and focus his efforts.

My guess is he will be a solid 1st/2nd line player for the next 3 years with high plus side intangibles. Pay him accordingly.




* I think this goes for Nash as well this year.

Side Note: Have you noticed since around Thanksgiving Jack Johnson's game has significantly improved? I believe the team has come together and replaced his family allowing him to refocus.

 

[major major]

I pretty much agree with Cyclone's take on this. I don't think you can go nuts and sign him to a $6 million 6 year deal based on 27 games. He has as much chance of going Setoguchi or Cheechoo as he does of being a career 70 point guy. Probably somewhere in the middle is where he winds up and how he should be compensated.

I'd be inclined to trade more dollars for shorter term. Say 6 mill but for no more than 3 years. If he turns out to be a 60+ guy then pay him more when the deal is done. If he wants a 6 or 7 year deal now, I think 5-5.5 is fair considering his past performance and what appears to be an anomaly this year offset by what he can probably get in the UFA market.

The one thing I can't do is blame Jarmo for not re-signing him earlier. I'm sure he wasn't anticipating this kind of a performance and short of Major no one else did either.

This I highly doubt. Seto and Cheechoo were one-dimensional players compared to Foligno. He'll always have ice time and opportunity so his scoring won't drop off like that.

And no, I wasn't anticipating this scoring performance. I would have signed Foligno at the same time as Dubinsky, because of the other parts of his game that he brings.

 

[major major]

Side Note: Have you noticed since around Thanksgiving Jack Johnson's game has significantly improved? I believe the team has come together and replaced his family allowing him to refocus.

If anything, Jack's improvement from pre-Thanksgiving to post-Thanksgiving is less extreme than it was last year. It was the same exact time last year that we started winning too.

 

[major major]

We're all kind of agnostic about Nick's scoring. The biggest difference between my view and others on the riskiness of $6m, is perhaps what we thought of Nick before the scoring. For me he was never less than second-line good. Others though, if you look back in our threads, disagreed.

 

[NotWendell]

One of the biggest mistake many GMs make is not recognizing good players who are the heart, soul and identity of their team.

Brandon Dubinsky was one of those players for the Rangers. Derek MacKenzie was one of those players for the CBJ. Nick Foligno is another one of those guys for the CBJ. You don't replace these kinds of players, you build around them.

 

[EspenK]

One of the biggest mistake many GMs make is not recognizing good players who are the heart, soul and identity of their team.

Brandon Dubinsky was one of those players for the Rangers. Derek MacKenzie was one of those players for the CBJ. Nick Foligno is another one of those guys for the CBJ. You don't replace these kinds of players, you build around them.

While I don't underestimate the impact of heart and soul guys on team chemistry and performance there has to be a balance between that and skill and scoring ability and pay. I don't think anyone here would advocate getting rid of Foligno or a guy like him because of any reason other than salary. I am now in the he's worth 5 mill a year club based on his performance this year. I am not yet convinced he is a 6 million dollar guy based on 27 games, heart and soul notwithstanding.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

While I don't underestimate the impact of heart and soul guys on team chemistry and performance there has to be a balance between that and skill and scoring ability and pay. I don't think anyone here would advocate getting rid of Foligno or a guy like him because of any reason other than salary. I am now in the he's worth 5 mill a year club based on his performance this year. I am not yet convinced he is a 6 million dollar guy based on 27 games, heart and soul notwithstanding.

But he wouldn't be worth 6 mil 'based on 27 games.' He would be worth it based on his body of work and anticipated future.

Which is not me saying he's worth 6 mil... But damn if he might just be.