Jackets - Leafs best of 5 play-in

[Johansen2Foligno]

Tiebreaker. Goes to game 6.



J2F on brand. I like it.

I figure I should start working out the rust now that the season is upon us.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Gavrikov and Savard as a pair is a real true shut down pair if I ever saw one. Those 2 will just wear down whoever is on the ice against them.

 

[CBJx614]

Murray Kukan?!?

 

[majormajor]

I love Texier-Dubois-Bjorkstrand as a topline.

The middle-six is mismatched. There's issues with both Nyquist - Wennberg - Atkinson and with Foligno - Jenner - Bemstrom.

Wings fans told us that Nyquist needed to play with big boys who could make some space for him. And lo and behold his best on-ice results of the year were with Boone Jenner. 15 GF, 9 GA. Positive xG, even CF%. Nyquist and Wennberg combined for 2 GF, 5 GA, with negative underlying stats.

It looks like Torts wants to keep Foligno and Jenner together as a shutdown option but other than a year ago when Anderson carried them, they haven't been a good duo. 9 GF 15 GA this year. Jenner and Bemstrom combined for 1 GF, 8 GA.

The centers should be switched. The Foligno - Wennberg duo had great underlying numbers this year.

So:

Texier - Dubois - Bjorkstrand
Nyquist - Jenner - Atkinson
Foligno - Wennberg - Bemstrom
Foudy - Nash - Robinson

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Murray Kukan?!?

Well, the only other alternative is he gets take-out for every meal.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I love Texier-Dubois-Bjorkstrand as a topline.

The middle-six is mismatched. There's issues with both Nyquist - Wennberg - Atkinson and with Foligno - Jenner - Bemstrom.

Wings fans told us that Nyquist needed to play with big boys who could make some space for him. And lo and behold his best on-ice results of the year were with Boone Jenner. 15 GF, 9 GA. Positive xG, even CF%. Nyquist and Wennberg combined for 2 GF, 5 GA, with negative underlying stats.

It looks like Torts wants to keep Foligno and Jenner together as a shutdown option but other than a year ago when Anderson carried them, they haven't been a good duo. 9 GF 15 GA this year. Jenner and Bemstrom combined for 1 GF, 8 GA.

The centers should be switched. The Foligno - Wennberg duo had great underlying numbers this year.

So:

Texier - Dubois - Bjorkstrand
Nyquist - Jenner - Atkinson
Foligno - Wennberg - Bemstrom
Foudy - Nash - Robinson

Yeah I tend to agree that I like the top line and something is off with 2 and 3. I would think that Dubois/Bjorkstrand, Nyquist/Atkinson, and Foligno/Jenner are the pairs to keep together, and I could see Texier, Wennberg, Bemstrom, and Foudy shuffling through the lines until something clicks. Nash and Robinson seem like the default fourth line guys, but one of them could get out with 71 and 38 to try to create a heavy veteran shut down line. But given that the Leafs seem to be going with two clear cut scoring lines and their third line appears to be a secondary scoring build, I think Torts will try to go with a little more balance throughout, which is why we see the makeup that we have on that third line, with two veteran guys with an offensive minded rookie.

 

[Viqsi]

Based on a particularly clueless comment by an anti-Leafs headcase who was trying to pump our tires and failing miserably, I must now insist that Dubi be given official social media backing by the Jackets, so that he can still contribute to the team's efforts by pestering their players online, since he can't be on the ice.

 

[majormajor]

Yeah I tend to agree that I like the top line and something is off with 2 and 3. I would think that Dubois/Bjorkstrand, Nyquist/Atkinson, and Foligno/Jenner are the pairs to keep together, and I could see Texier, Wennberg, Bemstrom, and Foudy shuffling through the lines until something clicks. Nash and Robinson seem like the default fourth line guys, but one of them could get out with 71 and 38 to try to create a heavy veteran shut down line. But given that the Leafs seem to be going with two clear cut scoring lines and their third line appears to be a secondary scoring build, I think Torts will try to go with a little more balance throughout, which is why we see the makeup that we have on that third line, with two veteran guys with an offensive minded rookie.

This is the opposite of what I'm saying. They haven't worked together very well. Based on results to date, it should be Nyquist/Jenner and Foligno/Wennberg. I get the idea of having a heavy unit but we're mostly getting last change anyways, it's better to spread the shutdown element and minimize weak points. And more importantly the chemistry has to be there, and it hasn't been there for Foligno/Jenner this year.

I've been successful at guessing when Torts is creating a line that he won't like and I can see him only giving like 10 mins to Nyquist-Wennberg-Atkinson. He'll be nervous about the matchups. I see us being more effective spreading out the speed (Foudy, Robinson) and the heaviness (Foligno, Jenner) and having balanced lines we can just roll with.

Counterpoint: Robinson has been so good at driving results this year (hard to find a bad combo with him) that Foligno-Jenner-Robinson might just dominate.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Murray Kukan?!?

Kukan has outperformed Nuti. No issues here

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

This is the opposite of what I'm saying. They haven't worked together very well. Based on results to date, it should be Nyquist/Jenner and Foligno/Wennberg. I get the idea of having a heavy unit but we're mostly getting last change anyways, it's better to spread the shutdown element and minimize weak points. And more importantly the chemistry has to be there, and it hasn't been there for Foligno/Jenner this year.

I've been successful at guessing when Torts is creating a line that he won't like and I can see him only giving like 10 mins to Nyquist-Wennberg-Atkinson. He'll be nervous about the matchups. I see us being more effective spreading out the speed (Foudy, Robinson) and the heaviness (Foligno, Jenner) and having balanced lines we can just roll with.

Counterpoint: Robinson has been so good at driving results this year (hard to find a bad combo with him) that Foligno-Jenner-Robinson might just dominate.

Yep. I only mean that those are the pairs that Torts seems to go to; I’m not overly fond of Foligno-Jenner. I don’t think those two as a specific heavy line has been effective this season or at all since Anderson fell out of the picture.

It’s hard to really picture Jenner or Wennberg anchoring that second line right now though, so I’m not sure that I see just flipping the centers on the 2nd and 3rd lines solving it. Maybe it is more likely that Jenner helps eat some of those minutes on the second line and give Torts a line that can take more than 10 minutes a game, but I keep coming back to Texier or Foudy looking more and more like viable options.

 

[EspenK]

Murray Kukan?!?

Well, the only other alternative is he gets take-out for every meal.

Nice. or he could go hungry.

 

[majormajor]

Yep. I only mean that those are the pairs that Torts seems to go to; I’m not overly fond of Foligno-Jenner. I don’t think those two as a specific heavy line has been effective this season or at all since Anderson fell out of the picture.

It’s hard to really picture Jenner or Wennberg anchoring that second line right now though, so I’m not sure that I see just flipping the centers on the 2nd and 3rd lines solving it. Maybe it is more likely that Jenner helps eat some of those minutes on the second line and give Torts a line that can take more than 10 minutes a game, but I keep coming back to Texier or Foudy looking more and more like viable options.

I don't care about talent level meeting the needs of each line, because outside of the first line, all of the lines might have similar minutes, and all will have to play shifts against Marner's line or Matthews' line. Sheltering isn't going to be possible. It makes more sense to focus on chemistry and observe that as well as possible using past results from each duo and trio.

In any case, it just so happens that the 2nd line I was most comfortable with was Texier/Foligno - Atkinson. Great results this year, and they happen to have the look of a top six line. Foligno-Texier also have a way of reading off each other, basically taking turns at center.

 

[Jovavic]

Korpi should get the first crack at it in the crease. If it seems to be too much for him (I think his last game was NYE, so seven months ago), then be quick on the trigger and throw in Elvis.

 

[cbjgirl]

One of the main things is that Torts NEEDS to roll all 4 forward lines and all 3 defensive pairs. Depth will be vital and if he shortens the bench I think they'll be in trouble. No one can really be in "game shape" at this point. Balance the minutes, they are all good enough to do that.

 

[thebus88]

Murray Kukan?!?

Kukan > Gavrikov > Nutivaara

IMO

 

[majormajor]

Counterpoint: Robinson has been so good at driving results this year (hard to find a bad combo with him) that Foligno-Jenner-Robinson might just dominate.

Instead Torts went for Foligno-Jenner-Foudy. Same principle might apply, I'm more confident in that trio.

 

[ViD]

Kukan > Gavrikov > Nutivaara

IMO

In what aspect ? Kukan has been pretty average when he had a chance to play in Jones spot. Gavrikov is a DD and Nutivaara has performed on a similar level to Kukan.

 

[ViD]

Toronto has a ridiculous top 6 offense, but our defense and team discipline is much better

 

[majormajor]

This is super informative.



It confirms what we already know, but the disparities in this series are more extreme than I thought.

Jackets are the top team in the league in forecheck/cycle goal scoring, and the top team in the league in preventing rush goals. They don't do anything on the rush for or against. The Leafs are of course the opposite kind of team. The path to victory for the Jackets is clearly to avoid the rush, keep it to a grinding game.

Edit: They're making a distinction between forecheck and cycle goals, which I'm a little confused about. Forecheck goals are what the Jackets are listed at #1 at, they might just be scoring right after turnovers. The Leafs give up the most of any team on the cycle, but it doesn't say how much the Jackets score in that dept.

 

[Finner]

I was thinking about how much coach has to do with this time. There will be no fans, no athmosfere, no homegames. Im more than okay with that we have Torts, can u imagine better whipper to give players more movation to play empty arenas?

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Korpi should get the first crack at it in the crease. If it seems to be too much for him (I think his last game was NYE, so seven months ago), then be quick on the trigger and throw in Elvis.

He was back right before the shutdown. He played in 5 games before the shutdown.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Constants in life.....the sun rises, the sun sets, Murray is out

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Constants in life.....the sun rises, the sun sets, Murray is out

The sun never sets on a Ryan Murray injury.

Kidding, of course. Here's to hoping it's nothing bad

 

[Jovavic]

He was back right before the shutdown. He played in 5 games before the shutdown.

March seems like five years ago, not four months

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

Just watched Elvis's 2nd back to back shutout at home vs Boston. I marvel at Toronto's skill and snipers... they can score in buckets, yet I am convinced that if Jonas & Elvis are on their games.. they can offset that skill edge. Comparing D & Coaching I believe we have an advantage. Whichever guy seizes the net needs to play like there is no tomorrow & this could be a very interesting best of 5 series.