Well I wouldnt say im more over the moon about Hughes than STI, just in terms of his production in his first year or two.
As for what convinces me of these projections, its his skating and vision that allow me to believe he can be our leading or 2nd leading scorer as a rookie. Jack has been skating at an NHL pace since he was 15/16 and by that I mean the speed in which he skates AND plays. Jack is much like McDavid in they both skate phenomenally but also stick handle, pass, and survey the ice at that same high-end speed. Now take those two major skills and consider how translation to the NHL works - for most players its the speed they cant initially keep up with as well as thea pace of shifts being so much more intense. Yes, Hughes could tire out halfway or 3/4 through as its only a normal possibility but I digress. Also take into account his lack of size but keep in mind his incredible skating, his edgework and pivots are so unbelievably strong at his age that his core balance and skating-strength alone accounts for an extra 10-20 pounds of what I call ghost weight - its like following and trying to hitting a 200lb middle-6 forward vs 200lb Crosby, Crosby is so strong on his skates that he comes off like hes 220lbs.
So I have Hughes entering the league and IMMEDIATELY being one of the games best skaters, so half of the transition to the NHL is already complete. Hughes biggest three challenges to me are: endurance, patience, and physicality. Any prospect should have endurance questions as they dont play 82+ at such a high pace. Patience is for the fact that sometimes Hughes tries a bit too much when his team is down and he will have to understand he is no longer the best in his hockey world anymore so he cant just let loose every time - however we will let him do this sometimes. Then the obvious physicality aspect most are worried about, and while im not overly concerned about it Im no idiot to think a guy like Byfuglien isnt daunting to Hughes at the age of 18.
All in all the second Hughes steps into training camp and the seasons start, IMO, he is our most skilled forward. Is he the most refined? No, the most experienced? Obviously not, which is why I havent been stating it as a fact that Hughes will outproduce everyone. But when you have already half of the biggest parts of NHL-transition figured out simply in natural raw talent, you have more of a head start than most. Add on to this that guys like Kane were drafted to far worse teams than Hughes has been and I dont see how its unreasonable at all to EXPECT 60+ while I wouldnt be surprised one bit if he broke 80+
If the Devils were a WC1-2 team and our top-6 remains relatively healthy, Id have Hughes pegged at a 70-80pt pace over 82games. Hischier scored 53 and as much as Hischier is my favorite NHLer, Hughes is twice the natural talent and prospect Nico was. To add 15-20+ points to those totals arent that crazy IMO as the team is better and also Hughes' skillset is far more conductive of high-end production
