Prospect Info: Ives Devils Day One Draft Review

[PKs Broken Stick]

As much as I liked Rossi, we were probably the team that saw him the most since we had multiple prospects playing for the 67’s. He’ll be a great player, don’t get me wrong but if he was labeled to be Brayden Point 2.0, Yzerman would’ve snatched him up, the Sens would’ve picked him over Sanderson since he was playing in their backyard and Buffalo would’ve picked him over Quinn.

I hate this argument. It wouldn't be the first time (not even close) that a team passed on a player they over-scouted and simply made a mistake of passing on them. Look at Detroit passing on Hughes as the latest example I can remember off top of my head.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Also for people who are trying to defend the devils playing out this draft as BPA and it just happened to be coincidence that it was also our need...Yes we will never know what their draft list looked like but what that also means is we will never know how they formed that list to begin with. It could very well be that they made a list based on team needs. If I made a list based on teams needs vs BPA, it would be veryyyyyyyyy different.

Whether this draft works out or not, I can't buy that it was bpa, sorry I see this draft as one that was based on need. 100% agree with @StevenToddIves.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Also for people who are trying to defend the devils playing out this draft as BPA and it just happened to be coincidence that it was also our need...Yes we will never know what their draft list looked like but what that also means is we will never know how they formed that list to begin with. It could very well be that they made a list based on team needs. If I made a list based on teams needs vs BPA, it would be veryyyyyyyyy different.

Whether this draft works out or not, I can't buy that it was bpa, sorry I see this draft as one that was based on need. 100% agree with @StevenToddIves.

Wise words, and thanks.

I think it's important to keep in mind that I'm not railing against the Devils as blowing the draft or whatever -- I think the Devils organization is much stronger today then they were last week. I just think it could have better with better strategizing, I think that's a fair criticism.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Holtz is actually putting up stats while Zacha never really did.

Yeah, exactly. Drafted prospects are always a mystery box, but we picked a mystery box within a mystery box in Zacha. He hadn't put up stats anywhere prior and the hope was that he would with development. Holtz has numbers already.

 

[Camille the Eel]

The best aspect of the Mercer pick was that the Devils lacked "power forwards" in their system. Now, they have one -- and also a dual scoring threat with elite hands and off-the-charts hockey IQ and compete level. It was a tremendous pick at #18.

If I keep my eyes on the ultimate goal, the thing is the Devils got much better yesterday. In a deep draft, they got two wingers who will likely make an impact for the club and who go right towards the height of their talent pool. And an 18 year old defensive prospect with elite potential.

By my lights it’s a very successful draft already. And because of the way the two right wings sync into the existing team talent pool, probably a better draft than I could have imagined.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

I hate this argument. It wouldn't be the first time (not even close) that a team passed on a player they over-scouted and simply made a mistake of passing on them. Look at Detroit passing on Hughes as the latest example I can remember off top of my head.

Why don’t we wait before proclaiming that we over scouted Rossi and we picked this dud in Holtz.

When everyone was on the Rossi bandwagon, everyone was saying that we had the upper hand because we had all kinds of link with the 67’s and we can say the same about Quinn as well.

Now that we picked someone else, we’re saying that we over scouted that player? C’mon now, that’s reaching just a little.

 

[My3Sons]

I actually messed up something. Someone posted the quote about the team discovering Muk while watching Amirov...for some reason, have no idea why, I just thought that was last years games. Like, they did that review earlier in 2020 (for last year tape). I really don't know why I thought that, but don't think the quote actually said that and I don't know why I didn't think that they could have been watching them the last few weeks lol. When I said "should be based on last year" its because I actually thought that is when the tape they watched was from...didn't mean it as a perspective of ignoring this years performances.

How about you substitute Fitz for team when pursuing this angle. The more I think about it the more I think this was a Fitz pick. His quotes about the team discovering Shakir when watching Amirov strike me as true but make little sense at this point in time if they date back nine months or more. What does make sense to me is that Fitz started watching video with the extra time on his hands and he notices Shakir when watching Amirov. He asks Castron about him (there is no way Castron didn't already know who he was and hadn't already scouted him) and Castron says he's good without committing one way or the other. Fitz watches more video and maybe interviews him with an interpreter or speaks with Russian scouts who know the team or maybe the coach and Fitz then decides this kid is the real thing. Now Fitz thinks he's found a diamond in the rough. At this point the underlings will be reluctant to poop on the new boss's new toy. So, the KHL season starts and Shakir gets off to a good start. This is the sign for Fitz that he's not seeing things on video that aren't really there and Fitz believes that he's found his first round defender. The staff probably admits that between 20 and 84 that Shakir is almost certainly drafted and Fitz doesn't like the idea of moving a third and a fourth to get a high third when maybe Shakir is gone. The result, they pick him at 20. Fitz has convinced himself it's a good pick. The scouts and Castron are maybe muted in their criticism and the lack of second round picks spooks Fitz.

Speculation on my part? Sure, but it fits the quotes from Fitz and makes more sense to me than the entire staff discovered someone every person in the hockey community at least knew the name in the fall of 2019. I additionally suggest that as for Schneider being the pick that may be the case but Shakir is a lefty and Schneider a righty and NJ has boatloads of lefties at this point so if they goal was simply to draft for need I'd have expected them to draft a righty. Nothing about Schneider screams big upside from what I've read and drafting him there is kind of sort of just drafting a right handed defender because NJ is short on them. I'm just skeptical that NJ either panicked or had to go to a hastily thought out plan B. Frankly, if the NYR thought they were getting one over on NJ by trading up they sort of played themselves as I see it. Maybe Schneider is light years better, I don't know, but I assess what people say for a living and Fitz's comments scream recency bias to me which doesn't make sense given how many people scout for NJ but make sense if the recent discovery was by Fitz.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Why don’t we wait before proclaiming that we over scouted Rossi and we picked this dud in Holtz.

When everyone was on the Rossi bandwagon, everyone was saying that we had the upper hand because we had all kinds of link with the 67’s and we can say the same about Quinn as well.

Now that we picked someone else, we’re saying that we over scouted that player? C’mon now, that’s reaching just a little.

uh...no? Prob should read again. I said it wouldn't be the first time a team over-scouted someone who they had a lot of viewings on...meaning we wouldn't know until 2 or 3 years later. It's pretty evident with Hughes and Detroit now.

My point was I hate this argument that a team had a lot of viewings on someone and they passed on them so it must be a good reason. Tons of teams have made mistake for doing that in the past.

 

[Billdo]

I don't think it will be a zacha vs barzal in the sense that Zacha is pretty much doing nothing. It may become the case where we lost out on the better player though...time will tell.

That's not how I meant it. Zacha isn't nothing. You bite your tongue.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

uh...no? Prob should read again. I said it wouldn't be the first time a team over-scouted someone who they had a lot of viewings on...meaning we wouldn't know until 2 or 3 years later. It's pretty evident with Hughes and Detroit now.

My point was I hate this argument that a team had a lot of viewings on someone and they passed on them so it must be a good reason. Tons of teams have made mistake for doing that in the past.

Oh ok, sorry... my bad.

 

[My3Sons]

Thats great! I nailed my next door neighbour right after the draft. She was 2nd on my board but that’s ok.

As the responsible father of three sons ranging from early twenties to teens I cannot say that this was the funniest thing I've read in a while. Shame on you.

 

[forceten]

Not a bad first day at all. A steal at 18, the best shooter at 7. If anything the lack of a second rounder influenced things more than anything else, but they clearly liked the KHL-seasoned teenager enough to draft him there. We didn’t need a center, and of course we can move assets if the winger is “as good” why not...

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Not a bad first day at all. A steal at 13, the best shooter at 7. If anything the lack of a second rounder influenced things more than anything else, but they clearly liked the KHL-seasoned teenager enough to draft him there. We didn’t need a center, and of course we can move assets if the winger is “as good” why not...

We made a pick at 13?

 

[forceten]

Oops thanks!

 

[BurntToast]

I was fortunate that someone posted Steven Kourianos’ pod cast before the draft. The dude had Holtz head and shoulders above others in our range. @StevenToddIves you did such a great job promoting Rossi. I didn’t see a consensus best player and would of been happy with any choice. If we want to be mad, lets be mad at Nashville for choking away our second top 10 pick. Rossi/Holtz, Perf/Holtz.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I was fortunate that someone posted Steven Kourianos’ pod cast before the draft. The dude had Holtz head and shoulders above others in our range. @StevenToddIves you did such a great job promoting Rossi. I didn’t see a consensus best player and would of been happy with any choice. If we want to be mad, lets be mad at Nashville for choking away our second top 10 pick. Rossi/Holtz, Perf/Holtz.

Well, I'm on the record as saying that Dawson Mercer is our best pick of the draft at #18 -- I think the kid is a stud and would have been a solid pick in the #10-#14 range. But yes, I'm still mad at John f***ing Hynes.

 

[TBF1972]

Perreault, to me, has more upside than any player taken out of the top 5 in the 2020 draft. The question is his compete and 200-foot game. We all have out own criteria, but it's tough to argue the sheer dynamism of Perreault's shot/skating/vision combination.

Conversely, 26 NHL teams passed on him in the first round, so perhaps this is just my own bias. It's tough to say, ultimately.

you were at the start of last season extremely high on shak. before the ascent of sanderson you had him once - if i remember correctly - as the #2 D in this draft, higher than guhle and schneider. you rated him a potential top pairing D and I was really intrigued by your write up of him. what were the reasons you cooled on him? he played around half of the team's games in the khl. some more than amirov, who is three month older.

 

[TBF1972]

When you consider Smith prefers to play his offside and next years draft is full of top Dmen, Schnieder could create a real logjam at RHD in a few years when we will already have Severson and Pieterangelo on the right side

Completely forgot about Pietrangelo. Is he any good?

I think it's a little early to be concerned about the log jam next year's picks could create. Schneider might just be a warm body, but the organization could really use some bodies on the right side, as it is a complete wasteland in the prospect pool:

1. Subban -> probably out after two seasons
2. Severson
3. Smith (LHS)
4. Carrick
5. Mermis (LHS)
6. Walsh
7. McCarthy
8. Jacobs
9. Quenneville (5'8)
10. Tennyson (30 y)

Butcher is the only LD left on the NHL roster after Claessen and Muller aren't getting retained and even after switching Smith from LD to RD the left side is less of a concern mid to long term:

1. Butcher
2. Bahl
3. Shak
4. Misyul
5. Okhotyuk
6. Vukojevic
7. Hellickson
8. Edwards
9. Bernard
10. White
11. Sissons
12. Groleau
13. Zaitsev

 

[TBF1972]

My thoughts:

It was assumed by fans that the Devils would take Rossi, but most pundits had him slipping due to size and concerns with ceiling with his age. Unfortunately, as an organization the Devils are small and have got pushed around. Holtz checks every box. You look at Perf and that kid is slight, and has less wheels.

Mercer best player available. No complaints.

Shak Attack..this was a weird draft because you have older guys who miss last years draft by a few days/weeks all seemed to slip. Then you have guy who started new seasons and shot up boards. I hated Raymond last season and didn’t want the Devils to select him but he shot back up the rankings because of his great start to his season. Fast forward to Shak, maybe the Devils could get more assets or maybe the Rangers and Caps weren’t trading assets to a team in their playing group. The 3rd pick is our long shot take Gunler pick, why not take a shot on Shak. To me it’s no different. I also see this as we don’t have a second round pick therefore get the guy you want even if he was ranked in round 2. Oh and Shak won on the international stage, plays in a men’s league. His stats look good. I can’t complain. Boo they took the wrong upside guy..silly

i am fine with holtz. he was not in my top three. but those three went to detroit (#4), ottawa (#5) and anaheim (#6), so i can't fault anybody.
i think everybody is happy with mercer. value and fit are both there, even if he plays the same position as holtz. he still is listed as a center and he might also be able to be a high end 3c in the future.
shak was a good target between him, bahl, okhotyuk, misyul, vukojevic and bernard the devils now have 6 LHD prospects, who all have size and offer different skill sets to fill out the line up on the left side. if one of them becomes a first pairing D even better and i believe he among them has the best shot to achieve that.

 

[TBF1972]

No, and I stated as much. But if you'll allow me to pose a question -- if Jake Sanderson or Jamie Drysdale fall to #7, do the Devils pick them?

I hope so. Even if you think Smith will play the right side, this is no reason to not pick Drysdale.

And if your answer is yes, then: if the Devils get a D at #7, do they still take Mukhamadullin at #20?

Picking Drysdale would not impact my decision to pick Shak. Having Sanderson in the fold could, as the Devils are deep with LHD prospects and Sanderson would cover the need for a potential first pairing LHD. Shak still could have been the player the liked most and they stick with him.

 

[TBF1972]

Columbus appeared to do the same thing right after us. It’s easy for people to say Fitz should’ve traded down but ultimately you need to give him the benefit of the doubt, trust that he hasn’t reached this position by being stupid, and assume he had a reason not to trade down. Now we hope for the best.

Columbus clearly panicked and lacked a proper draft strategy and a plan B after their 1st round target (Shak) was picked right ahead of their pick.

 

[TBF1972]

We'll all look back at this and laugh when in 5 years Mukh and Bahl are our Bash Brothers pairing.

you have it wrong here.

bahl will complement smith puck moving skills on the second pairing.
shak will make severson look like a true first pairing D for the first time in his career.

 

[TBF1972]

"The only reason he has gotten points is because he was given the opportunity to play in an expanded role" isn't an indictment of a player, it's what you want to see happen with prospects.

How many guys have we seen get called up due to injury and never get sent back down because they forced the team to keep them. Young players SHOULD be capitalizing on their opportunities.

and the devils could use a big shot d on their pp, who hits more than shin pads.

 

[TBF1972]

Grizyak

Is this Arseny Gritsyuk #129 from 2019?

 

[The Rochester Rocket]

After yesterday's draft, I would honestly pay good money to see a scrimmage between two teams comprised of all recent draft picks like so:
Boqvist-Hughes-Mercer
Zetterlund-Talvitie-Anderson
Moynihan-Pytlik-Clarke
Popugaev-Gignac-Pasic

Okhotyuk-Smith
White-Jacobs
Edwards-Zaitsev

Senn
Daws
Schmid

Bratt-Hischier-Holtz
Maltsev-McLeod-Thompson
Studenic-Sharangovich-Gritsyuk
Baumgartner-Shlaine-Bastian

Mukhamadullin-McCathy
Misyul-Walsh
Vukojevic-Hellickson

Blackwood
Brady
Cormier

Pakkila as an extra forward somewhere