StevenToddIves
Registered User
Okay, I just got home and I had a ton of messages and questions regarding the Devils draft which I felt I needed a thread in order to address,
7) RW Alexander Holtz
I can't dislike this pick. Holtz has the most are goal-scoring upside of any player in the 2020 draft. His shot is ridiculous, and his overall game -- while not superlative -- is certainly very good. He's going to be a player who contributes a bit to the team in every aspect -- two-way play, physicality, passing, puckhandling -- while being an absolute goal-scoring force.
However, I do not feel he was the right pick at #7 overall. Why not? Because it just so happened to be a draft where top-line scoring RWs were the most heavily available commodity. To me, it's bad asset management. There was only one Marco Rossi in the draft and only one Cole Perfetti in the draft, and the Devils went for a kid who a very comparable player was taken one pick later (Jack Quinn), a player at the same position with more line-driving ability was taken 6 picks later (Seth Jarvis), and a similar player with even more upside was taken 20 picks later (Jacob Perreault). The problem with taking Holtz was not Holtz at all -- he's surely deserving of being the #7 pick -- but rather the fact that the best available player at #18 and #20 both turned out to be comparative players at the same position. I feel the Devils showed a bit of myopia by not taking a Rossi or Perfetti here.
Ultimately however, my biggest concern with Holtz at #7 was that it would negatively affect the Devils pick at #18 or #20. At #18, this did not come to fruition. At #20, it did.
In the end, Holtz was a solid pick. Either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier will greatly benefit from a sniping RW with the requisite talent to skate with them and the finishing ability to be a 40+ goal scorer at the NHL level. He just might not have been the best pick in terms of overall strategy and asset management.
18) RW/C Dawson Mercer
Our best pick of the round. Disregarding the fact that they took a RW 11 picks earlier, the Devils took the clear-cut best player available, a player who would have been considered a great pick if, say, Nashville had taken him at #11 overall. Mercer is a consummate, two-way power winger with off-the-charts IQ, character and compete level who also is a legitimate dual threat offensive talent with hands which are absolutely elite. He's a dynamic talent in every respect except for skating, where he is above average but certainly could use some improvements. However, the rest of Mercer's game is so flawless that I literally cannot see him NOT becoming an impact NHL-er. I've been lauding this kid forever, he's just the kind of player you win with.
20) LD Shakir Mukhamadullin
Okay, I'm going to theorize. I think the Devils really wanted Drysdale or Sanderson at #7 and just missed out. Then, I think the Devils really thought they would get Schneider at #20 and then the Rangers traded with Calgary to get him and left the Devils with their pants down. Instead of taking the "best available player" -- clearly Perreault, but with Khusnutdinov and Greig and Mysak not far behind -- they went for the highest D left on their draft board.
Why was this a bad pick? Well, if the Devils had strategized better, they could have traded down, acquired more assets, and still gotten Mukhamadullin. Washington gave up the #80 pick to move up from #24 to #22. I would have gladly taken that pick to move down to #24 and take Mukhamadullin there. Let's face it, there was little risk another team would take him between #20-#23. I feel it was a bit of a panic move to take Mukhamadullin at #20.
That being said, I'm willing to look at the optimistic side. To me, Mukhamadullin has the third-most upside of any LD in the 2020 draft after only Sanderson (gone at #5) and Poirier (a disaster defensively). Mukhamadullin has the best shot of any D in the 2020 draft and he's 6'3 and skates extremely well. He's pretty physical and good with the puck when he's on his game. So, Mukhamadullin is far from a disaster at #20 -- he's just bad asset management at #20. You want a disaster? If the Devils took Cormier or Wallinder at #20 -- that's a disaster. Though routinely ranked higher than Mukhamadullin, Cormier has Will Butcher-like upside with more risk, while Wallinder grades out as "poor" in shooting, hands, decision-making, physicality, defensive play, puck management, etc etc etc. Mukhamadullin -- with all of the questions raised by a troublesome draft-eligible season -- was a guy who entered my 2020 draft rankings in the top 15 overall because of his tremendous upside. But again, I would have preferred to have traded down to get him and also gained some more assets in the process. To me, it's proof that the Devils did not have a solid contingency plan after Schneider went off the board.
Conclusion
I know Devils fans will be very unhappy with missing out on Drysdale, Sanderson, Rossi and Perfetti -- then missing out on guys like Perreault, Gunler, Greig, Khusnutdinov and Mysak. However, it's important to realize that the Devils likely have created a strength at RW for the next decade out of thin air while adding a nice, high-upside lottery ticket at LD. Do I think the draft could have gone better with a more experienced management team who strategized more comprehensively for the draft? Yes, I do. I think NJ got caught with their pants down with players who unexpectedly rose and fell, and if they knew who would be available at 18 & 20 they would not have taken Holtz at 7. But do I think the Devils gained three players with tremendous upside who could be part of a burgeoning franchise core going forward? Yes, I do.
7) RW Alexander Holtz
I can't dislike this pick. Holtz has the most are goal-scoring upside of any player in the 2020 draft. His shot is ridiculous, and his overall game -- while not superlative -- is certainly very good. He's going to be a player who contributes a bit to the team in every aspect -- two-way play, physicality, passing, puckhandling -- while being an absolute goal-scoring force.
However, I do not feel he was the right pick at #7 overall. Why not? Because it just so happened to be a draft where top-line scoring RWs were the most heavily available commodity. To me, it's bad asset management. There was only one Marco Rossi in the draft and only one Cole Perfetti in the draft, and the Devils went for a kid who a very comparable player was taken one pick later (Jack Quinn), a player at the same position with more line-driving ability was taken 6 picks later (Seth Jarvis), and a similar player with even more upside was taken 20 picks later (Jacob Perreault). The problem with taking Holtz was not Holtz at all -- he's surely deserving of being the #7 pick -- but rather the fact that the best available player at #18 and #20 both turned out to be comparative players at the same position. I feel the Devils showed a bit of myopia by not taking a Rossi or Perfetti here.
Ultimately however, my biggest concern with Holtz at #7 was that it would negatively affect the Devils pick at #18 or #20. At #18, this did not come to fruition. At #20, it did.
In the end, Holtz was a solid pick. Either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier will greatly benefit from a sniping RW with the requisite talent to skate with them and the finishing ability to be a 40+ goal scorer at the NHL level. He just might not have been the best pick in terms of overall strategy and asset management.
18) RW/C Dawson Mercer
Our best pick of the round. Disregarding the fact that they took a RW 11 picks earlier, the Devils took the clear-cut best player available, a player who would have been considered a great pick if, say, Nashville had taken him at #11 overall. Mercer is a consummate, two-way power winger with off-the-charts IQ, character and compete level who also is a legitimate dual threat offensive talent with hands which are absolutely elite. He's a dynamic talent in every respect except for skating, where he is above average but certainly could use some improvements. However, the rest of Mercer's game is so flawless that I literally cannot see him NOT becoming an impact NHL-er. I've been lauding this kid forever, he's just the kind of player you win with.
20) LD Shakir Mukhamadullin
Okay, I'm going to theorize. I think the Devils really wanted Drysdale or Sanderson at #7 and just missed out. Then, I think the Devils really thought they would get Schneider at #20 and then the Rangers traded with Calgary to get him and left the Devils with their pants down. Instead of taking the "best available player" -- clearly Perreault, but with Khusnutdinov and Greig and Mysak not far behind -- they went for the highest D left on their draft board.
Why was this a bad pick? Well, if the Devils had strategized better, they could have traded down, acquired more assets, and still gotten Mukhamadullin. Washington gave up the #80 pick to move up from #24 to #22. I would have gladly taken that pick to move down to #24 and take Mukhamadullin there. Let's face it, there was little risk another team would take him between #20-#23. I feel it was a bit of a panic move to take Mukhamadullin at #20.
That being said, I'm willing to look at the optimistic side. To me, Mukhamadullin has the third-most upside of any LD in the 2020 draft after only Sanderson (gone at #5) and Poirier (a disaster defensively). Mukhamadullin has the best shot of any D in the 2020 draft and he's 6'3 and skates extremely well. He's pretty physical and good with the puck when he's on his game. So, Mukhamadullin is far from a disaster at #20 -- he's just bad asset management at #20. You want a disaster? If the Devils took Cormier or Wallinder at #20 -- that's a disaster. Though routinely ranked higher than Mukhamadullin, Cormier has Will Butcher-like upside with more risk, while Wallinder grades out as "poor" in shooting, hands, decision-making, physicality, defensive play, puck management, etc etc etc. Mukhamadullin -- with all of the questions raised by a troublesome draft-eligible season -- was a guy who entered my 2020 draft rankings in the top 15 overall because of his tremendous upside. But again, I would have preferred to have traded down to get him and also gained some more assets in the process. To me, it's proof that the Devils did not have a solid contingency plan after Schneider went off the board.
Conclusion
I know Devils fans will be very unhappy with missing out on Drysdale, Sanderson, Rossi and Perfetti -- then missing out on guys like Perreault, Gunler, Greig, Khusnutdinov and Mysak. However, it's important to realize that the Devils likely have created a strength at RW for the next decade out of thin air while adding a nice, high-upside lottery ticket at LD. Do I think the draft could have gone better with a more experienced management team who strategized more comprehensively for the draft? Yes, I do. I think NJ got caught with their pants down with players who unexpectedly rose and fell, and if they knew who would be available at 18 & 20 they would not have taken Holtz at 7. But do I think the Devils gained three players with tremendous upside who could be part of a burgeoning franchise core going forward? Yes, I do.
