Prospect Info: Ives Devils Day One Draft Review

[BxDevilsFan]

After taking a few hours to process what the Devils did. I've come to the conclusion that the 1st round selections are good. I said that the Devils couldn't really disappoint me considering they had 3 1st rd picks.
I love Holtz. I had him high on my personal board, but didn't think the Devils would take him. I thought Quinn was the pick at 7.
I love Mercer. Didn't think he would fall to us at 18.
Mukhamadullin, I don't know much about him. I think the Devils were going to draft Guhle if he was there at 20. Schneider was possible. I thought Holloway going to Edmonton at 14 was a bit of a surprise as well. I think the Devils not having a second round pick pushed them to draft Mukhamadullin.

 

[devilsblood]

I guess I base it off such a small sample size. The problem with this draft is you have to do a lot more projecting than normal due to covid canceling everything. Is his last 14 games what he truly is or just a hot streak. We may have stolen this kid if he is that player but he also may have fallen if it was just a hot start.

I honestly have no idea which is the correct and thats why I'm saying a low floor, due to just how much of an unknown he is to me.

He's clearly off to a hot start. No chance he keeps that pace. So let's all accept that. But he did play in the KHL last year. That's not flukey. He did play in the U-18's at 17 years old. That's not flukey. He does have point production success in the MHL, and he now has a stretch of point production success in the KHL. Obviously there are no sure things beyond the best of the best prospects. So at 20 there is certainly a chance that this kid doesn't pan out, but the resume of a kid having already played high level professional hockey suggests he is the exact opposite of a "high risk" and moreso a "low floor" player.

 

[OmNomNom]

you HAVE to assume our scouts did their research on rossi. doesn't make sense for them to have not done due diligence. definitely want to know why, but it's something we won't be able to find out

 

[MNDevilsfan]

I mean, very possible (likely) they really liked Rossi and just liked Holtz a bit more.

They could not have gone wrong with any of Holtz, Rossi, Perfetti, or Askarov at 7 IMO. Had the AZ pick landed in the top 10, I'm sure they would've been thrilled to get another of those four.

Only way I would've been annoyed is if they went off the board and took Quinn, etc.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Appreciate the write-up STI as always, though I do disagree with some things.

I think there's a very real argument to made that Holtz was simply the BPA at 7. I won't lie, I did say I wanted Rossi beforehand but I also did post quite a few times about how I'd be equally as happy with Holtz there. The whole having foresight into the rest of the draft thing doesn't really make sense to me, if we're to believe that Holtz was just the BPA on the Devils' board. Also, I'm not as high on Perfetti as some so maybe that's another reason why I like the pick way more in that it was really between Holtz and Rossi for me there and I could see merits for picking either. Fact is that Holtz is obviously a much better fit in our organization and he could very well be the BPA.

As for Big Muk, at this point I think BPA is harder to determine and again perhaps he was just at the top of the list for the Devils and not a needs pick. Talk about swinging for the fences and trying to hit a homerun with one of our first rounders, and everything I've seen and read indicates that's what this was. That his potential upside is huge but there are some question marks he needs to sort out before getting there. Having that extra look at Muk as he's started his season obviously helps as maybe they saw much of those flaws being minimized or clearly worked on from the start of the season, in which case that upside is even more tantalizing. For all the talk about Lapierre being that high risk/high reward pick, I see Muk in a similar regard there but perhaps better? If you hit on a 6'4 mobile, two-way defenseman then man is that the jackpot and those kind of players are hard to come by.

Obviously Mercer was just a great pick for where we got him so that's nice. But overall I really like all three picks.

 

[Blackjack]

you HAVE to assume our scouts did their research on rossi. doesn't make sense for them to have not done due diligence. definitely want to know why, but it's something we won't be able to find out

I guess we'll see. To me they passed on an elite player because he's 5'9 and not a burner and it's that simple. But we'll see what happens.

 

[RememberTheName]

I'm going to give my honest reaction to all three picks
1. Holtz: Honestly, I was a little disappointed we didn't take the two guys in this draft I am especially high on, Quinn and Perfetti. Quinn especially sting because I've spent awhile going through the Quinn vs Holtz debate and always come out liking Quinn a lot more. Holtz was my third highest player left on the board. Now, although I was disappointed, do I think it was a bad pick: no, I really don't. Holtz began the year ranked essentially as a top 5 pick and has maintained that positioning all this year. Many people in the hockey world are super high on he kid, and for good reason. In terms of raw shot, I'd argue his is better than Quinn. Overall, though, Holtz is an extremely raw prospect. He has a ridiculous shot but the rest of his game definitely needs time for developing and refining. Let him play for two years on the top line on an SHL team and light it up over there, round out his offensive game a bit better (specifically in the IQ department, just better understanding situational stuff), and keep improving in the physicality department (important for a bigger body like him). Time will tell how he develops: at best case, we have a poor man's Ovechkin (stylistically hopefully). At worst, we have a middle 6 PP specialist. Overall, I give the pick a B.

2. Mercer. Honestly, not much to say about this one. Just a super solid pick. Mercer is a fantastic well rounded player, he is great defensively, has a slick set of hands, and fulfills a very important position of need for us. Could probably step into a role with the team after this season on the third line. Plays a little like TJ Oshie/Justin Williams, just one of those guys you can shove all over the lineup and fulfill his role perfectly. I rate this: A+

3. Mukhamadulin: Definitely didn't expect this one, but surprises aren't always a bad thing. I had Mukhamadulin ranked in the 25-35 range recently, and its for good reason. The dude is a 6'4" Russian with a big shot, tons of offensive potential, and experience playing in the 2nd best league in the world. Not only experience, but he is performing fantastic right now. He is on pace to have the best U-19 season for a defenseman of all time in the KHL, albeit not among notable company. One of the more recent names on the list is Dmitry Orlov, though, so there is some proof of being able to succeed well at the NHL level. It definitely hurts to pass up a kid like Perreault, but lets not act like he was picked next; he went 7 picks later. Mukhamadulin has just as much upside for his position as a kid like Perreault, so lets see if he pans out. Grade: B

Overall grade: B+

 

[StevenToddIves]

I feel exactly the same with your assessment STI. Right now Rossi and Perfetti dropping looks like a big mistake for all teams involved. It has similar vibes to Barzal, Caufield, Debrincat etc going late, where the point totals are fantastic but the scouts have whatever concerns that in the end don't seem to matter. But at the same seems like almost every year a fan favorite drops and few years later we findout the scouts were right to pass him.

This draft could have gone so much more worse and I'm only disappointed because of who was still available. Holtz, Mercer and a good D prospect is a great result if you don't know who other teams picked. In my final rankings I had Holtz at #9 (But I think I had him close to top 5 last year). Mercer I had #14. Mukhamadullin I had #41. This is who we picked and now we gotta stop speculating and get behind these guys. I already love Holtz and Mercer, and if Muk keeps up or even improves the level he is playing right now I'll love him too. Also excited to be able to watch Shak and Alex play this week!

I'm behind them, too. The Devils could have done far worse than shoring up RW as a strength for the next decade and adding a high-upside defender!

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

I've mentioned this before as well, the fact that he is super fluent in English is a very nice touch imo.

I couldn’t believe he was Russian hearing him speak.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

I guess we'll see. To me they passed on an elite player because he's 5'9 and not a burner and it's that simple. But we'll see what happens.

They did trade for Gusev, so I’m not sure it’s that. Just feels like they went positional need because they probably had them ranked so close.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The idea that the staff panicked is absurd speculation. These guys have been in drafts as key decision makers for a while.

It’s not like Schneider was some under the radar guy who the Devils got sniped on. He could’ve gone anywhere around our picks.
Also, if we wanted him, we would’ve taken him at 18.

You could be right, it could be an absurd speculation. I certainly could be wrong.

The more I think about it, the more it becomes plausible this current Devils administration just values "drafting for need" over "best available player".

Last year, desperate for a physical edge on the blueline, the Devils used 4 (!) picks between the second and fourth round to select Okhotyuk, Misyul, Vukojevic and McCarthy -- all players who fit that bill. This year, the Devils needed a goal-scorer and used their first of three first-round picks on the player considered to be the best goal-scorer in the draft, Alex Holtz. And it's possible they decided to take a defenseman in the first round, so they used the #20 pick on their highest-rated remaining defenseman.

Again, maybe I'm wrong. And I'm open to the debate if you think I am -- because you're correct that what I'm doing right now is 100% speculative.

 

[feerlessleadr]

I couldn’t believe he was Russian hearing him speak.

Mind posting a video of him speaking? The only video I saw was his media availability where he was using a translator.

 

[OmNomNom]

I've mentioned this before as well, the fact that he is super fluent in English is a very nice touch imo.

who?

 

[StevenToddIves]

It's very irresponsible to say that he was a needs pick when we know that internal lists often differ dramatically from "consensus" lists the pundits make.

How could it be a pick for need? If they wanted a defenseman, they just passed up on Branden Schneider at #18. If they specifically wanted a big physical LHD - we already have Bahl and Okhotyuk in the system. This pick didn't fill any needs, especially considering how far away Shak is from actually putting on a Devils sweater.

This was a highly unusual draft with no proper combine and some players already starting their D+1 seasons. It seems like if the draft had been in June this guy would not have gone in the 1st round. I'll admit I was a little confused last night, but a lot of us asked for Fitz to swing for the fences and he did. There's nothing wrong with putting this guy on the shelf for 3 years and then seeing what we have.

I do think Fitz could have handled the asset management part better, would have been nice to trade back a few spots and pick up an extra 3rd. But if the trades weren't there than the trades weren't there. This is his first draft and I'm not going to ding him for not being 100% flawless. He got us two really great prospects and a wildcard with huge upside.

It will be really fun to go back through these threads in 3-5 years.

This is a great take, and to be honest it makes more sense than anything I've written.

 

[devilsblood]

who?

Shak.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

Mind posting a video of him speaking? The only video I saw was his media availability where he was using a translator.

Now I can’t find it. Am i possibly remembering hearing Holtz speak really good English instead? I thought it was the Russian kid.

 

[devilsblood]

You could be right, it could be an absurd speculation. I certainly could be wrong.

The more I think about it, the more it becomes plausible this current Devils administration just values "drafting for need" over "best available player".

Last year, desperate for a physical edge on the blueline, the Devils used 4 (!) picks between the second and fourth round to select Okhotyuk, Misyul, Vukojevic and McCarthy -- all players who fit that bill. This year, the Devils needed a goal-scorer and used their first of three first-round picks on the player considered to be the best goal-scorer in the draft, Alex Holtz. And it's possible they decided to take a defenseman in the first round, so they used the #20 pick on their highest-rated remaining defenseman.

Again, maybe I'm wrong. And I'm open to the debate if you think I am -- because you're correct that what I'm doing right now is 100% speculative.

I think it is very fair to say the Devil's have placed a value on need in recent drafts.

I think at times that can be a negative. I'm not sure it was last night.

 

[StevenToddIves]

“Trade down” only works when someone is willing to trade up.

Washington was clearly willing, but maybe Fitzgerald did not like what was offered.

 

[devilsblood]

Now I can’t find it. Am i possibly remembering hearing Holtz speak really good English instead? I thought it was the Russian kid.

Not sure of who you are thinking, but there was definitely an interview with Shak last night and he spoke great English.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Now I can’t find it. Am i possibly remembering hearing Holtz speak really good English instead? I thought it was the Russian kid.

You might be, in Holtz' interview he was speaking English very well.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

Foote almost feels like a part of this draft too, basically added two wingers with elite shots in less than a calendar year. When's the last time we even had one prospect with an elite shot.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

Not sure of who you are thinking, but there was definitely an interview with Shak last night and he spoke great English.

Really? The one interview I watched with Shakir he had a translator.

 

[devilsblood]

Really? The one interview I watched with Shakir he had a translator.

on NBCSN?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Despite many scouts salivating over Sanderson, there are fair share who just don't think he's an elite prospect. I've said all along that he was a mid first round guy for me. Wheeler didn't love Sanderson (and also had Stutzle ranked around 7), which is why he thought Ottawa did not have a good first round. The Greig pick was pretty underwhelming as well.

I could not disagree with Wheeler more. I think Sanderson was a tremendous pick at #5, and I'd say he has the most upside of any defenseman in the draft. He's the only guy who has the potential to be both a 25+ minute shut-down defender and a major point producer in the NHL. I also think Greig was an outstanding pick -- perhaps the highest compete level in the draft and sneaky good skills in every facet of his offensive game.

My recurrent disagreement with Wheeler is that I factor two-way play, hockey IQ and compete level very highly in my rankings and also factor in physicality. Wheeler does not believe that any of these are major factors when assessing prospects, except (in extreme cases in either direction) hockey IQ. So I tend to up-rank players like Evangelista and Greig and down-rank players like Nybeck and Simontaival and he does the opposite.

But I do love Scott Wheeler. His research is impeccable, his convictions are true to heart and his writing is terrific.

 

[New Jersey Devils]

on NBCSN?

This one via the Devils. I didn't see the NBCSN one. I'll try to look for a full replay of the draft and see.