I completely agree with your points on Diggs, but something in my gut tells me that they need to get Allen away from having a true #1 wide receiver. At least away from one who is older and demands the ball.
Diggs was essential for Allen early on, when he wasn’t sure where to go with the ball and could just go to Diggs. But Allen is past that time. He needs to throw to the open receiver. Sometimes that doesn’t jive with having a true #1.
Just a gut feeling but I think Beane is moving on from Diggs sooner than we think.
About having too many receivers, that’s easy. Shorter didn’t have a hamstring injury all season.
As i said - if Diggs leaves it's only because the off-field stuff becomes more of a problem than the dead cap / loss of his on-field talents would be. It might happen - but i think deep down Diggs simply wants to be a winner & he has as good a chance at that in Buffalo as anywhere. The chances of him leaving after next season are remote.
The hype for drafting a WR early is mostly about trying to find a future #1 WR for when Diggs is done in Buffalo and not about available snaps/targets in 2024.
If you open up the conversation to longer term needs, OT bubbles up if they have questions about being willing/able to extend Brown after 2024. And I think that is where safety could come into the conversation. But, I think the way Beane has talked about the safety position and what he values (IQ & playmaking), those are things you can get on day 3.
I expect a safety pick. I just expect it on day 3 and not in the 1st or 2nd round. The earliest I foresee it happening is if they trade up into the 3rd for one. And maybe it is one of the handful of safeties that Jahmile Addae coached at Miami and Georgia.
Bolded 1 - I've made the arguement multiple times before - but that is a dumb strategy for a 'win now' team in the middle of a cap crunch. We need those high picks to be immediate contributors every year. Just look at our friends in KC for a blueprint ...
It's especially dumb since Diggs is contracted for a number of years & you don't even need to 'replace' him. Refer to post immediately above responding to
@Der Jaeger re why i think replacing Diggs isn't necessary. Also read DJ's own post further above re the structure of the offence as we move forward. This is very insightful & likely completely lost on the 'WR or bust' crowd.
Bolded 2 - i love that you mentioned this because outside of DeJean, Kinchens is the guy I want. Hoping his bad combine allows him to fall.
I don’t believe that there is a plug and play safety in this draft. Couple that with the fact that two high safeties ironically reduces the need for a high end talent at safety, and I think it should be unnecessary to spend a high pick there. Now, in many of my mocks, I end up with Kam Kinchens in the 2nd, or, more preferably with a 3rd picked up in a trade down, but that usually because there was a run on 2nd round WRs, or edges. I think you have to come away from this draft with one of the top 15 WRs or you run the risk of falling behind in the arms race. And the Bills are extremely thin at Edge. Those are the position I think you HAVE to address early. Safety can and should wait. If they can trade back or up to get a 3rd, that’s the sweet spot for safety, IMO.
I think you & I have many similar preferences.
R1 EDGE, R2 WR, then a trade up for Kinchens would be a great draft in my book - assuming i didn't hate the particular R1/R2 picks.
Kinchens is a playmaker who would instantly make an impact. DeJean would have an even bigger effect - on the way the D plays on the whole far beyond safety play in a vacuum.
I know the "WR or bust" fans will be upset if the Bills take JPJ in the 1st. But, he is one of the C/G prospects that I would not be upset with in the 1st.
Said it above but I think JPJ is the best possible R1 pick we could realistically make. The problem is that i don't see him being available at 28. For sure he's not getting past Dallas.
